Over the past decade, China has gone from a minor player to the world’s largest beef importer, with purchases rising from around a $100 million in 2010 to nearly $18 billion in 2022, which is a staggering increase of over 17,000%. This surge isn’t just about spending more. The actual volume of beef purchased has grown by more than 8,000%, driven by rising incomes, urban lifestyles, and shifting diets that favor beef over traditional staples like pork. The outbreak of African Swine Fever in 2018, which devastated China’s pig population, further accelerated the shift, while government dietary guidelines have promoted beef as a healthier option. Due to rising demand and imports, coupled with lifting the import restriction on U.S. beef in 2017, China is now the third largest foreign market for U.S. beef—around $1.5 billion in 2024. This rise has been highlighted in previous Southern Ag Today articles (For example, see: https://southernagtoday.org/2025/04/17/high-tariffs-could-halt-u-s-beef-exports-to-china/).
Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which started earlier this year, raised concerns for U.S. beef exporters. Chinese tariffs on American beef soared as high as 145%, making it far more expensive than beef from countries like Brazil and Australia. Although those tariffs were later lowered to around 33%, the decline had already begun. On top of that, China let export approvals expire for nearly 400 U.S. beef processing plants in March, about 60% of all facilities allowed to ship beef to China, effectively blocking a large portion of U.S. supply (Marianetti, 2025). This move, seen as a non-tariff barrier, has created uncertainty, shaking confidence in the reliability of U.S. beef exports.
In 2025, rising trade tensions quickly took a toll on American beef in China (see Figure 1). From January to September, U.S. beef exports fell sharply—from $814 million in 2024 to $442 million in 2025—a 46% drop driven mostly by lower volumes. The decline was even steeper in the second and third quarters, after China let key export approvals expire, with U.S. beef falling nearly 70%. This happened even as China’s overall beef imports grew in value. Meanwhile, Australia and Brazil gained ground: Australia’s exports to China rose 42%, and Brazil’s increased nearly 25%. In 2024, the U.S. held about 9% of China’s beef import market, compared to Brazil’s 48% and Australia’s 9%. By the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. share had dropped to less than 1%, while Brazil and Australia accounted for 59% and 13%, respectively. It’s a clear sign that when trade tensions rise, other suppliers are quick to take the lead.
Figure 1. Chinese Beef Imports: 2024 and 2025 (Year-to-date: January–September)
Note: Imports are defined according to the Harmonized System (HS) classification HS 0202 meat of bovine animals, frozen. Frozen beef accounts for over 90% of China’s beef imports. Source: Trade Data Monitor®
References
Marianetti, J. (2025). USA Dairy Pork and Poultry Registrations Renewed while Beef Remains Overdue (GAIN Report No. CH2025- 0056). Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, D.C.
We often look at the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for guidance on expected supply, demand, and pricing for commodities. Rarely, however, does this report mention anything about peanuts. The last WASDE (September 12, 2025) before the government shutdown was one of those rare exceptions when it included the statement that “Other changes [in oilseeds] this month include higher U.S. peanut production.” To obtain more details, one needs to look at the monthly Oil Crops Outlook (OCO), which focuses on oil crops and animal fats. The last OCO on September 16, 2025, reported that peanut production for marketing year 2025-26 was increased to a record-high 7.4 billion pounds, due to an expected higher harvested acreage (mainly in Georgia and Texas) as well as an increase in the average peanut yield. With the government shutdown, this report has also not been updated, leaving the peanut industry with a month-old forecast during the peak harvest period that indicates a record crop.
Figure 1 shows U.S. peanut production and uses from 2020/21 to forecasted 2025/26. Production is forecasted to reach record levels at 7.4 billion pounds, representing a 14.7% increase. Meanwhile, total use for food, crush, and exports are expected to increase 8.5%, to 7 billion pounds. The additional production is expected to increase ending stocks by 29.6% to 2 billion pounds, levels similar to the ending stocks in the 2022/23 marketing year.
The lack of readily available data further limits information in an already thin market that, unlike other commodities, does not have a futures market to help establish prices. This leaves producers questioning what the actual production levels will be during the peak of harvest. One could look at various weather conditions, especially in Georgia, Texas, and Alabama, the three largest peanut acreage states this year. Dry weather that is prevalent in these areas has the potential to bring down yields or affect quality.
Another source of alternative information comes from the Georgia Federal-State Inspection Service, which publishes the National Tonnage Report. This report contains data provided by buying points throughout the peanut belt on peanut production classified by segmentation. The official report is also affected by the government shutdown, but unofficial tonnage data have been made available. Since October 1, data have been self-reported only for Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas. While the total tonnage reported thus far stands at 3.1 billion pounds, it is certainly a data point that has too many caveats to use for pricing decisions.
The last source of information is the weekly Crop Progress & Condition report, which has also been affected by the government shutdown. The last report at the end of September showed harvest ahead of last year and the previous 5-year average. However, at the end of October, harvest over the last 5 years has been, on average, about 70% completed. Thus, there is still a way to go before we can figure out how big the 2025 peanut crop may be. In the meantime, the lack of official USDA reports is leaving producers with limited guidance.
Source:
Bukowski, M., & Swearingen, B. (2025). Oil crops outlook: September 2025 (Report No. OCS-25i). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Crop Progress & Condition. U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. U.S. Department of Agriculture, September 12, 2025.
We’ll take a break from the cattle and beef market news of the last week to take a look at dairy markets. However, there is one important interaction between beef and dairy markets that intersects with recent news.
Profitable milk prices and falling feed costs in 2024 have led to a surge in the number of dairy cows since the first of the year. USDA’s August Milk Production report indicated 9.52 million dairy cows in the U.S. That is the highest number of dairy cows since 1993. The number of dairy cows in the U.S. has typically fluctuated between 9.3 and 9.4 million over the last decade. Cow numbers are particularly higher in the Plains. Dairy cows in Texas hit 699,000 head; this is the most dairy cows in the state since 1958! Milk processing capacity is growing hand in hand with cow numbers.
In addition to more cows, milk production per cow has increased since April. Production per cow hit 2,050 pounds in August, the largest August milk production per cow on record, up 1.3 percent compared to August 2024. The combination of more cows and more milk per cow has milk production up 3.6 percent over the last 3 months compared to the same period last year.
As production has surged, prices are beginning to decline sharply. Cheese, butter, and non-fat dry milk (NFDM) prices are the basic product prices forming federal milk marketing order prices. Cheddar cheese, 40 pound blocks, has moved between about $1.95 and $1.70 per pound all year. While prices should be increasing seasonally, heading into the holidays, they are about $0.30 per pound below a year ago. Butter prices have declined sharply over the last few weeks from $2.50 per pound to about $1.70 in mid-October. NFDM prices have fallen sharply to $1.14 per pound, their lowest price of the year. Lower product prices are filtering through to much lower milk prices to dairy farmers.
One area of interaction between dairy and beef cows is the cull cow market. While beef cow slaughter remains much lower than last year, dairy cow slaughter is picking up and has been equal to last year since mid-year. More dairy cows in the herd, falling milk prices, and record high cull cow prices will likely cause some more cow culling in the coming weeks. A recent newspaper article quoted a dairy farmer in Wisconsin as saying we really needed more dairy culling to boost milk prices and increase supplies of beef. Harkening back to the 1980s and the dairy herd buyouts, which caused even more worries for many cattle producers. At the moment, there is no government program to encourage dairy cow culling. Unless something changes, it looks like the market will take care of this, too.
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act, signed into law on July 4, 2025, introduces new opportunities for U.S. peanut producers to manage risk. This article explores the current crop insurance options available to peanut farmers and highlights how the new law expands these choices beginning crop year 2026. Under the OBBB, peanut producers continue to have access to traditional deep-loss and shallow-loss programs, while also gaining access to a new combination of income protection tools: the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) and Agriculture Risk Coverage – County (ARC-CO). These programs are designed to help farmers safeguard their income against unexpected losses. This article provides a detailed look at these options and how they can benefit peanut producers.
Deep Loss Programs protect against significant losses, including complete crop losses. The Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) for peanuts offers three farm-level insurance plans that fall into this category. These plans form the foundation of a peanut producer’s risk management strategy. They are also referred to as the underlying policy that peanut producers can purchase to protect against potential losses. (1) Yield Protection (YP) insures against losses when yield falls below a selected coverage level due to natural disasters or other covered events. (2) Revenue Protection (RP) safeguards revenue when it falls below the selected revenue coverage level, either due to low yields, declining prices, or both. (3) Revenue Protection with Harvest Price Exclusion (RP-HPE) functions similarly to RP but does not increase the revenue guarantee if harvest prices rise above the projected price. This typically results in lower premium costs for producers.
Shallow Loss Programs provide additional coverage for smaller, more frequent losses that can impact a farmer’s income. For peanut producers, shallow loss insurance options include SCO and the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO). These are add-ons, not standalone policies, and must be paired with an underlying policy, such as YP, RP, or RP-HPE. By layering SCO and/or ECO onto their base policy, producers can often achieve higher overall coverage at a lower combined premium than by raising the base policy’s coverage level alone. This layered approach, which combines shallow-loss and deep-loss tools, is explored here by Biram and Connor (2023), who demonstrate that strategic combinations can enhance overall risk protection.
Unlike deep loss programs, which provide protection at the farm level, shallow loss programs do not cover complete crop failures. SCO and ECO are both area-based programs, triggered by county-level yield or revenue outcomes depending on the underlying policy. They help fill the “deductible gap”, covering losses that fall between the individual coverage level of the underlying policy and the higher coverage level selected for SCO or ECO. Biram (2024) discusses how ECO may provide meaningful protection in years when county yields are strong, but market prices decline, offering producers an effective tool to manage upside yield risk and downside price exposure.
Beginning crop year 2026, under the OBBB, producers can now purchase SCO regardless of whether their base acres are enrolled in ARC-CO, removing a major restriction from previous farm bills. This means that the same acres can now be enrolled in both the ARC-CO and SCO programs. Additionally, the maximum SCO coverage level was increased to 90%, and its premium subsidy rate was raised to 80% (Biram & Maples, 2025). RMA has issued guidance on implementing the legislative changes. Under this new guidance[1], the 80% higher premium subsidy rate will also extend to the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) and the Hurricane Insurance Protection–Wind Index (HIP-WI).
Additional Program: In addition to the deep and shallow loss programs, peanut producers can also purchase Hurricane Insurance Protection – Wind Index (HIP-WI). This endorsement helps cover part of the deductible from the primary crop insurance policy when sustained hurricane-force winds impact the county or a neighboring one. HIP-WI can be combined with SCO and ECO, but only if the acreage is already insured under an underlying policy (YP, RP, or RP-HPE). HIP-WI has gained popularity, particularly in regions prone to hurricanes and tropical storms.
Understanding these insurance options empowers farmers to develop customized risk management strategies. By combining standalone policies with supplemental options and endorsements, producers can strengthen their financial resilience against both major and minor losses. For more information, producers are encouraged to visit the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency website and use the Agent Locator Tool to connect with a certified crop insurance professional.
Table 1. Individual and Area Crop Insurance Products with Associated Indemnity Triggers and Standalone Status for Peanuts
Hurricane Insurance Protection – Wind Index (HIP-WI)
Area
Hurricane or Tropical Storm
No
[1] Starting in 2027, RMA will increase the maximum SCO coverage level from 86% to 90%. For 2026, producers can use ECO to cover that band instead and will receive the same 80% premium subsidy that applies to SCO.
The H-2A program is an important provider of agricultural labor in the United States. The H-2A program is jointly administered by three federal agencies – Department of State (“DOS”), Department of Homeland Security (“DHS”), and Department of Labor (“DOL”). DOS issues the H-2A visas to workers through embassies and consulates in the worker’s country of residence. DHS, through U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (“USCIS”), oversees the petition process. DOL provides H-2A certifications to employers and ensures that wage, housing, and other U.S. labor laws are followed. In 2025, there have been several changes to the H-2A program through federal agency actions and court injunctions.
Visa Updates
On September 18, 2025, the DOS announced that certain H-2A visa applicants would be exempt from the nonimmigrant visa interview requirement starting on October 1, 2025. According to the DOS’s announcement, “applicants renewing an H-2A visa within 12 months of the prior visa’s expiration when the prior visa was issued for full validity at the time of issuance” are exempt from the interview requirement if specified conditions are met:
The applicant was at least 18 years old;
The applicant applied in his or her country of nationality or usual residence;
The applicant has never been refused a visa; and
The applicant has no apparent or potential ineligibility.
Adverse Effect Wage Rate Rules
On August 25, 2025, a judge in the Western District of Louisiana issued a ruling in Teche Vermilion Sugar Cane Growers Ass’n v. Chavez-Deremer, 6:23-CV-831, 2025 WL 2472461 (W.D. La. Aug. 25, 2025) granting a permanent injunction and vacating DOL’s 2023 Adverse Effect Wage Rate (“AEWR”) rule. In 2023, DOL issued a final rule amending the formula for calculating the AEWR for non-range agricultural occupations. The AEWR is the minimum hourly rate, determined for each state, that employers must pay H-2A workers. DOL announced that it would be reverting back to utilizing the methodology to calculate the AEWR laid out in the 2010 rule until the department can promulgate new regulations.
On October 2, 2025, DOL issued an interim final rule amending how the AEWR is calculated. This rule replaces the methodology from the 2010 and 2023 rules. There are three major changes under the new rule. The first major change is that the rates set by the DOL will be based on the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) instead of the Farm Labor Survey, which USDA is discontinuing. The next major change is that DOL will set one AEWR for the five standard occupational class codes that comprise the “field and livestock workers (combined)” category and separate AEWRs for all other standard occupational class codes. The last major change is that the interim final rule implements AEWRs for two different skill levels – entry level and experienced. Skill level I, or entry-level, require no formal education or specialized training. Skill level II, or experienced-level, requires skills obtained through education, training, or experience to perform the job. This means that for each AEWR set, there will be a wage for skill level I jobs and a wage set for skill level II jobs. The interim final rule went into effect on October 2, 2025, and comments are being accepted until December 1, 2025.
Filing of H-2A Petitions
On October 2, 2025, DHS issued a final rule updating the timing to submit a temporary labor certification (“TLC”) for unnamed beneficiaries in order to reduce the time it takes to complete the H-2A program enrollment process for employers. Prior to the rule, employers were required to wait until DOL certified the TLC before submitting the required forms to USCIS. Under the new rule, employers can now submit the I-129H2A form after receiving a notice of acceptance from DOL and before the TLC is certified. This will allow the two agencies, USCIS and DOL, to concurrently process portions of the H-2A application process. However, USCIS will not approve the petition until DOL approves the TLC. It is important to note that the new rule only applies to electronic petitions with unnamed beneficiaries. For petitions with named beneficiaries or petitions filed by paper, the process remains unchanged.
