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  • Making the ARC/PLC Election for the 2026 Crop Year

    Making the ARC/PLC Election for the 2026 Crop Year

    Authors: Bart L. Fischer, Joe L. Outlaw, Henry L. Bryant, Hank R. Nelson, Natalie G. Stewart, J. Marc Raulston, Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University.

    The ARC/PLC election & enrollment for 2026 is now live through December 11. You can access AFPC’s decision tool here.

    Earlier this week, USDA announced (link) that the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) election and enrollment period for the 2026 crop year will run from September 16 through December 11, 2026. This typically occurs much earlier in the year, but the process for the 2026 crop year was delayed due to the amount of time it has taken USDA to implement the Working Families Tax Cuts Act (i.e., One Big Beautiful Bill) which added up to 30 million acres of additional base acres across the United States. This delay is a substantial benefit for producers, since the 2026 crop either has been or soon will be harvested across the country, and producers will have a much better sense of what yields will be (which has a significant bearing on the performance of ARC in particular). With that said, both ARC and PLC use marketing year average prices from the 12 months following harvest.  So, while producers may have a clearer sense of what yields will be, the marketing year average price is far from settled. As a result, when they make their election and enrollment decisions over the next 3 months, they must take that uncertainty into account.

                      The Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University has decades of experience in developing decision aids for producers.  We have provided an annual decision tool for ARC and PLC since those programs were first created in the 2014 Farm Bill.  We have once again updated the decision aid for the changes made in the Working Families Tax Cuts Act.  We have also refreshed the tool to make it easier to use. If you’ve used it in the past, your existing data should load once you log in. You can find a link to the tool on our website (link). Before using the tool, it would be helpful to make sure you have access to your base acre and program yield data which can be found on the FSA-156EZ form.

                      The following screen captures provide a general walk-through of the decision tool. You will be prompted to log-in primarily so you don’t have to enter data again each time you visit the tool. Once you are on the Tools and Decision Aids landing page, simply click on “2026 FSA ARC/PLC Expected Payments” (circled in red below).

    From that point, you can add as many farms (i.e., FSA Farm Serial Numbers, or FSNs) as needed by clicking on the blue “+ Create a Farm” button. 

    Once your farms have been added, simply click “+ Add a crop” to add the covered commodities associated with that farm.

    Once you’ve added the crops (i.e., covered commodities) on the farm, click “Analyze.”

    At this point, you will be prompted to add Base Acres for that covered commodity on the farm along with the 2026 PLC Payment Yield, the Historically Irrigated Percentage, and the Expected Price. Because the marketing year average price is far from known at this point, you are welcome to click on “View Suggested Prices” which will provide the most recent forecasted price for the marketing year from USDA.  You are also welcome to run the analysis as many times as you want using your own price estimates. Because this tool evaluates PLC versus ARC County (ARC-CO), if you have a very good sense of what the 2026 actual yield for the county will be, you may wish to override our forecasted yield.  You can do that by clicking on “Advanced Settings” and inputting your own county yield estimate.  Once you are finished, simply click “Calculate” and then scroll down for the results.

    Once you’ve clicked “Calculate,” the results will display below. As noted in the following figure, the results will include a table of summary statistics (i.e., mean and median expected payments and chance of payment) along with a chart that shows the likelihood of both ARC and PLC across a range of possible payments. Again, you are welcome to run the tool as many times as you want under as many different assumptions/scenarios as you want.

    While the decision tool discussed above is for PLC and ARC-CO, we know that some producers will be interested in exploring possible payments under ARC Individual (ARC-IC). We have developed a separate, Excel-based tool that you are welcome to download from the same website (2026 ARC-IC Decision Aid).

    Please note that USDA also announced that signup for the 2027 crop year will begin on November 2, 2026, and run through March 15, 2027. We will be providing an updated tool for the 2027 crop year as we get closer to November 2nd.

    Our FREE tools are available for producers nationwide. If you have questions, please do not hesitate to reach out at 979-845-5913 or 1(888)890-5663.

    Recommended citation format: Fischer Bart L., Joe L. Outlaw, Henry L. Bryant, Hank R. Nelson, Natalie Stewart, and J. Marc Raulston. “Making the ARC/PLC Election for the 2026 Crop Year.” Southern Ag Today 6(38.4). September 17, 2026. Permalink

  • September WASDE Forecasts Lower Production, Higher Prices for Most Crops

    September WASDE Forecasts Lower Production, Higher Prices for Most Crops

    The USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on September 11, 2026. These are the first updates to last month’s survey-based yield estimates and adjusted area estimates using data from the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acres (Maples, 2026). This month’s WASDE report continues to refine those yield and acreage estimates. Overall, the September report forecasts increased prices for most crops, relative to the August forecast.

    There was little change in projected harvested acres, compared to the August report. Sorghum forecast harvested acres decreased by 3.7% compared to the August projection, to 5.2 million acres. This change was driven by 50-thousand-acre declines in planted acres in both Kansas and Texas. Peanuts had a 0.9% decrease in projected harvested acres, due to small declines across a number of states. Corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans all had less than a 0.5% change in predicted harvested acres, relative to the August forecast.

    Forecasted yields were down for the most part, relative to August. Upland cotton showed the largest decline at 2.8%, to 766 lb. per acre, which would mark a 9.0% decrease compared to last year. Texas – the largest cotton producing state – is forecasted to have a 15.8%-lower yield than last year, driving the decreased national yield. Drought across the Texas High Plains is the main cause of the lower forecast cotton yield, as 63% of US total cotton acres are in areas of drought. Sorghum yields were predicted to fall by 1.8% to 54.4 bu. per acre, also due to the drought across the Southern Plains. If realized, this would mark a 25.1% decrease in yield compared to 2025. Peanut yields are forecast 1.9% lower than August, due to decreases across most of the peanut-producing states. This is prior to any impacts that may occur from the closing of the Delta Peanut facility in Arkansas (Reneau, 2026). Lastly, corn yields are forecast down 1.2% nationwide, while rice and soybeans are up 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

    These updated yield and acreage levels have led to decreased production estimates for most crops. Cotton and sorghum had the largest drop in production compared to the August forecast, at 3.0%. Peanuts are projected to have a 2.8% decrease in production, corn a 1.3% decrease, and rice a 0.1% decrease compared to August. In contrast, soybean production is up 0.4%.

    Forecasted marketing-year prices increased for all crops except for rice (table 1). Sorghum had the largest rise (7.0%), followed by corn (6.7%), soybeans (5.3%), and upland cotton (4.0%). Despite an increase in estimated soybean production, soybean prices were buoyed by increased expected usage due to higher exports. While this month’s WASDE report provided more information about the size of this year’s crop, these values will continue to be refined throughout the rest of the year in subsequent reports.

    Table 1: Past and Projected US Marketing-year Prices by Crop

    CropPrice
    2025/26E2026/27F August2026/27F September
    Corn (bu.)$4.15$4.50$4.80
    Cotton (cwt.)$62.00$75.00$78.00
    Rice (cwt.)$12.40$14.90$14.90
    Sorghum (bu.)$3.70$4.30$4.60
    Soybeans (bu.)$10.50$11.40$12.00
    Data source: USDA. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. September 11, 2026.

    References

    Maples, William E. “August WASDE Brings New Acreage and Yield Estimates.” Southern Ag Today 6(34.3). August 19, 2026.

    Reneau, A. “Arkansas Peanut Growers Face Uncertainty after Delta Peanut Loses Federal Warehouse Bond.” K8News. Available at: https://www.kait8.com/2026/09/12/arkansas-peanut-growers-face-uncertainty-after-delta-peanut-loses-federal-warehouse-bond/

    USDA. US Agricultural Commodities in Drought. September 8, 2026. Available at: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Maps.aspx?1

    USDA-NASS. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. September 11, 2026. Available at: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796054/wasde0926.pdf

    USDA-NASS. Crop Production. September 11, 2026. Available at: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796056/crop0926.pdf  

    Recommended citation format: Sawadgo, Wendiam. “September WASDE Forecasts Lower Production, Higher Prices for Most Crops.” Southern Ag Today 6(38.3). September 16, 2026. Permalink

  •  Market Opportunities for Certified Halal Meat in the United States

     Market Opportunities for Certified Halal Meat in the United States

    Authors: Sanchez Philocles, Manuel Garcia, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service- Department of Agricultural Economics and Samuel Zapata, Texas A&M University- Department of Agricultural Economics

    Certified halal represents a premium-generating attribute in meat production, comparable in commercial terms to organic, grass-fed, antibiotic-free (ABF), or kosher designations (USDA AMS, 2025). Halal certification requires that animals be processed, handled, and stored in accordance with Islamic dietary laws and traditions. This market niche is of particular interest given the significant expansion of halal food markets in the United States (US). To illustrate, Al-Mahmood (2020) showed that the number of halal food markets in the US went from 200 stores in 1998 to 2,100 in 2018, with 85% of those stores selling halal meat. Furthermore, Green and Gammon (2016) have found that halal food is important not only to the US Muslim Population but also to young non-Muslim Americans, many of whom have embraced halal food believing it to be a healthier dietary alternative. This trend creates growth opportunities for livestock operations, slaughter facilities, restaurants, and foodservice providers, in a market expected to reach $20 billion in annual sales (Halawa, 2018).

    In this article, we compare retail prices for conventional and halal-certified beef, lamb, goat, and chicken. Data for this analysis comes from the 2025 weekly grocery store feature activity reports published by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). For example, in 2025, conventional ground beef was sold for an average of $5.65/lb., compared with $8.76/lb. for ABF, $8.19/lb. for USDA organic, $8.08/lb. for grass-fed, and $7.09/lb. for halal (Table 1). Similar price premium patterns were observed across other cuts and meat types.

    To highlight price differences, Figure 1 presents the percentage premiums across the four main protein categories: beef, lamb, goat, and chicken. Among halal beef products, ribs were sold at a premium of 60% relative to conventional alternatives. Loin cuts commanded the highest premium (127%), while ground beef exhibited the lowest premium (25%). Halal goat products also showed substantial premiums; in particular, goat stew meat was sold at a premium of 147% in 2025. This result has important implications for US goat producers and livestock processors because most of the halal goat consumed in the US is imported from Australia. Therefore, industry stakeholders can develop targeted strategies to capture a market segment with untapped potential.

    Halal chicken exhibited the highest average premium across all three cuts included in the analysis. Boneless chicken breasts, drumsticks, and thighs were sold at premiums of 181%, 125%, and 74%, respectively. Despite the high premiums on halal chicken, beef, and goat, higher prices do not automatically translate into higher profits. Premiums should be considered in conjunction with sales volumes, market demand, certification costs, production adjustments, and marketing requirements needed to serve halal consumers.

    Finally, halal lamb products showed the smallest and most variable premium levels across four major cuts. Lamb legs were sold at a premium of 10%, while loin and ribs cuts commanded premiums of 50% and 63%, respectively. On the other hand, ground lamb was sold at a discount of 15% compared to conventional.

    These findings highlight halal certification as a value-added strategy for US livestock producers and processors, particularly those involved in goat and chicken production, as these categories exhibited some of the highest premiums. However, the potential for higher returns must be weighed against the additional costs and production adjustments required to meet halal certification and market requirements. The premiums reported here should be treated as inputs to that evaluation, rather than a forecast of profitability.

    Table 1. Average retail price by product and certification attribute in 2025.

    CommoditySection/typeAvg. retail price ($/lb.)
    ConventionalGrass FedAntibiotic FreeKosherUSDA OrganicFree RangeHalal
    BeefGround5.658.088.766.248.19 7.09
    Loin10.5922.6721.5915.3123.05 23.99
    Rib9.7619.9216.4011.4919.45 15.64
    LambGround8.779.109.39   7.42
    Leg7.747.868.24   8.52
    Loin10.3912.0310.21   15.56
    Rib16.0618.0819.51   26.21
    GoatOther: Stew meat5.0610.9910.99   12.49
    ChickenBreast, boneless/skinless3.03 4.637.988.026.398.51
    Drumsticks1.26 1.91 3.512.862.84
    Thighs1.63 2.19 5.573.362.84
    Note: All beef cuts included in the analysis were classified as ungraded.
    Source: USDA AMS 2025

    Figure 1. Retail price premiums (%) for halal meat cuts relative to conventional alternatives in 2025

    Source: USDA AMS 2025

    References:

    1. Al-Mahmood, O. A., Jiang, X., Bridges, W. C., & Fraser, A. M. (2024). A Longitudinal Study: Microbiological Quality of Raw Beef from Halal and Non-Halal Meat Markets in the United States. Applied Microbiology, 4(3), 1193-1202.
    2. Green, J., & Gammon, C. (2016). How halal food became a $20 billion hit in America. Bloomberg, available at: www. bloomberg. com/news/articles/2016-09-14/america-loves-muslim-food-so-much-for-a-clash-of-civilizations (accessed 25 October 2016).
    3. Halawa, A. (2018). Acculturation of Halal Food to the American Food Culture Through Immigration and Globalization: A Literature Review. Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies 5(2):53–63. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejecs/89
    4. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Marketing Service (2025). Grocery Store Feature Reports, available at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/grocerystore
    5. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (2025). Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-availability-per-capita-data-system

    Recommended citation format: Philocles, Sanchez, Manuel Garcia, and Samuel Zapata. “Market Opportunities for Certified Halal Meat in the United States.” Southern Ag Today 6(38.2). September 15, 2026. Permalink

  • Defining a Good Farmer

    Defining a Good Farmer

    Authors: Kelli Russell, Jean Ribert Francois, Madison Harris, and Mykel Taylor, Auburn University-Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology

    Depending on their vantage point, people define “good farming” in a myriad of ways,  from profitability and production yields to conservation and innovation. To better understand how Southern producers think about good farming, we surveyed farmers across Alabama about their perspectives on what it means to be a good farmer. Using data from the 2025 Alabama Farm Poll pilot, which included 321 Alabama growers, we show how producers rate aspects of being a “good farmer” across four categories: production and profitability, soil and environmental stewardship, technology and management, and community and long-term responsibility. The Alabama Farm Poll is a biennial producer survey conducted by Auburn University.

    Survey respondents rated the importance of various practices and activities using a five-point scale ranging from “very important” to “not important at all” regarding being a good farmer. Figure 1 highlights the results from the survey. Notably, no producers viewed the protection of streams as “not important at all,” meaning that all producers viewed this practice at least slightly important to being a good farmer. Reducing soil erosion had the highest percentage of respondents (28%) rating it as “very important” to being a good farmer. Overall, more than 80% of all producers who responded to the survey rated reducing soil erosion as either very important or important.

    Figure 1. Alabama farmers’ ratings of the importance of practices and activities to being a “good farmer.” Survey statements are shortened for presentation.

    In contrast, producers placed relatively little emphasis on using modern equipment as a defining characteristic of good farming. Only 3% of producers surveyed rated it as “very important” and 13% rated it as “important.” This finding is notable, as many precision agriculture technologies aimed at supporting soil and environmental stewardship (practices that producers rated as important) require modern equipment. Future research in the Southern region should explore how producers consider equipment investments in relation to conservation decisions.

    Recommended citation format: Russell, Kelli, Jean Ribert Francois, Madison Harris, and Mykel Taylor. “Defining a Good Farmer.” Southern Ag Today 6(38.1). September 14, 2026. Permalink

  • Can Cooperatives Help Reverse the Decline in Rural Grocery Stores?

    Can Cooperatives Help Reverse the Decline in Rural Grocery Stores?

    Independent rural grocery stores have been in decline due to factors such as competition from newer, smaller-footprint rivals, buying-power disadvantages relative to larger chains, rural population loss, and the aging out of independent grocery store owners. This decline is leading some small towns to explore starting cooperatively owned grocery stores, as history shows that many cooperatives were formed to serve rural areas where private investment failed. Examples include farmers’ cooperatives, rural electric and telephone cooperatives, and the Farm Credit System.

    Recently, the South Carolina Center for Cooperative Development surveyed a small town to assess interest in a cooperatively owned grocery store and found interesting results.

    The Positive Findings

    In general, the survey found substantial enthusiasm for a grocery store. The survey drew 773 complete responses from a population center of about 9,000 people. Most participants (84%) either lived in the city center or were within a 20-minute drive. Participants’ shopping habits showed that they use a variety of food outlets, with many respondents (~80%) shopping at major grocery chains and discount stores. Average monthly grocery spending ranged from $200 to $800, with a median of $400–$599.

    When choosing where to shop, respondents ranked product quality first (80.7%), followed by price or value (62.7%) and product availability, selection, and variety (48.9%). When asked which product offerings were the most important, fresh produce was ranked highest, followed by meat and seafood, dairy products, organic or natural foods, and prepared foods. Locally sourced products seemed to matter more than organically sourced products for most participants: 88.6% rated local sourcing at least moderately important, while 65.7% rated organic sourcing at least moderately important.

    Respondents also viewed the store as more important than a typical retail outlet, like an “anchor store” that drives foot traffic for a struggling main street. A deli or café was the most desired additional service, followed by online ordering and pickup, cooking demonstrations, community events, delivery, and nutritional education. Respondents also emphasized accessibility, parking, operating hours, professional management, and a welcoming atmosphere.

    The Lukewarm Findings

    Familiarity with the cooperative concept was limited. Sixty-nine percent said they were either only slightly familiar or not familiar at all with the model. Membership interest was more measured. About 61% were somewhat or very interested in becoming member-owners. Of those asked about investing, roughly three-quarters considered a one-time stock purchase of less than $300 reasonable. Engagement interest was limited, with interest in serving on a board or committee split evenly at 50% “yes” and 50% “no.”

    The sample was also comparatively affluent, with about 70% reporting household incomes of $100,000 or more, suggesting that the findings may not fully reflect all income groups in the wider community.

    Next Steps and Sources for Assistance

    Cooperative groceries can work, though they typically do not resemble traditional grocery stores. While the survey findings point to a potentially promising market, long-term success depends on clear education (and engagement) with the cooperative model, and thoughtful collaboration with existing farmers, farm markets, and other local businesses. Potential cooperative “owners-as-customers” must also be realistic about the variety of products offered, as grocery store margins are low and inventory costs high.

    The South Carolina Center for Cooperative and Enterprise Development is an example of how most states have resources to help rural towns with this issue. If you are looking to start a cooperative, many land-grant universities have extension personnel and cooperative specialists who can help with these items.  Also, there are national organizations available to help cooperative grocery stores, once a cooperative has been established.

    For more information:

    Food Co-op Initiative  https://fci.coop

    National Co-op Grocers  https://www.ncg.coop

    Recommended citation format: Richards, Steve. “Can Cooperatives Help Reverse the Decline in Rural Grocery Stores?” Southern Ag Today 6(37.5). September 11, 2026. Permalink