Since November 2023, grocery inflation (food-at-home, FAH) has slowed to around 1%, following fluctuations in 2021 and 2023 that peaked at 13.5% (US BLS). However, the perception of grocery inflation remains relatively high. Our monthly consumer survey of approximately 500 primary grocery shoppers in the US reveals that a significant share of consumers still perceives grocery inflation as high (Figure 1).[1] Over 60% of respondents reported high inflation perceptions between July 2023 and May 2024 when the average FAH inflation rate was 1.8%. While this is lower than the peak of 73% in July 2022, it remains well above the pre-high inflationary period average of 33% (January 2017–August 2021). Several factors contribute to the persistently high perception of inflation among consumers.
First, the sustained high inflation perception among consumers is expected because current moderate inflation indicates that prices for many goods and services continue to rise, even after a significant jump during the high inflationary period (Figure 2). Inflation measures the rate at which prices increase over time, calculated by comparing prices in the current period to those from the same period one year earlier. Falling inflation rates do not imply that prices are decreasing; instead, they indicate that prices are rising at a slower pace. This often confuses consumers, who may misinterpret news about decreasing inflation rates as a reduction in overall price levels. Disinflation (i.e., a slowdown in the rate of inflation) should not be confused with deflation, which refers to an actual decrease in general price levels (Marks, 2023).
Second, consumers often compare current prices to those they were accustomed to prior to the period of high inflation, rather than to prices from one year ago as inflation metrics do. For example, comparing the FAH consumer price index (CPI) from May 2024 to May 2020 reveals a substantial cumulative inflation rate of 24.68%, as demonstrated in Figure 3. This tendency could lead to a heightened perception of current inflation.
Third, frequent purchases of essential items like groceries amplify inflation perceptions. As noted by D’Acunto et al. (2021), frequent exposure to necessity purchases heightens inflation awareness. A survey by Balagtas and Bryant (2024) found that consumers were more sensitive to food price increases compared to other goods, despite actual food inflation (2.2%) being relatively low compared to items like housing (4.5%) and auto insurance (22.6%). Understanding what inflation is and how it is calculated is essential for consumers to bridge the gap between actual inflation and their perceived inflation. Historically, grocery prices rarely decrease (US BLS), making it unlikely that inflation perceptions will quickly return to pre-high-inflation levels. However, rising incomes (US BLS) are expected to gradually ease these perceptions over time. Identifying and addressing evidence-based causes of persistent high inflation perception can improve public understanding, boost consumer confidence, and help policymakers to communicate more effectively with consumers about economic conditions.
Figure 1. the Inflation Rate of Food at Home (FAH) Based on Consumer Price Index versus Consumer Inflation Perception of FAH, represented by the Share of Respondents Who Strongly Agreed Noticing an Increase in Grocery Prices
Figure 2. Food at Home (FAH) Inflation Rate Fluctuations versus FAH Consumer Price Index
Figure 3. Actual Inflation Rate of Food at Home Based on Consumer Price Index versus Consumer Inflation Perception, represented by the Share of Respondents Who Strongly Agreed with the Inflation Statement
[1] In our study, inflation perception is measured by the statement “I have noticed an increase in grocery prices at my grocery store recently” where survey participants answered on a 7-point Likert scale ranging from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (7). We focus on the “strongly agree” category in our discussion on inflation perception as it experienced most significant changes during the inflationary period.
Kim, Ashley Jiyoon, and Sungeun Yoon. “Why Grocery Inflation Still Feels High.” Southern Ag Today 5(6.5). February 7, 2025. Permalink
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