June WASDE Delivers Sharp Reduction in U.S. Rice and Cotton Crops

The USDA’s June Supply and Demand report (WASDE) is generally characterized as a “quiet” report with few, if any, changes from the previous month.  That held true for the U.S. corn and soybean outlook.  The only adjustments USDA made to the 2025/26 corn balance sheet included a 50-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks.  This reflected an increase in exports for 2024/25. With no demand changes for 2025/26, ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers was unchanged at $4.20 per bushel. There were no changes this month to the U.S. 2025/26 soybean outlook, with new crop ending stocks remaining at 295 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel.  On the World balance sheet, Brazil’s production estimate was unchanged at 169 million metric tons and Argentina’s was also unchanged at 49 million metric tons.

One of the big surprises in the June WASDE was the aggressive cut to 2025 long-grain rice production.  Not waiting for the June Acreage survey, USDA made note of “the excessive spring precipitation in the Delta” and anticipated this would result in lower rice acreage in the region compared to the March Prospective Plantings. On the long-grain balance sheet, production was lowered by a sizeable 7.5 million cwt. (-4.5%) this month to 159.7 million cwt (see Table 1).  Partially offsetting the sharp production cut was a 1 million cwt. increase in imports and a 3 million cwt. reduction in domestic and residual use.  The net result was a 3.5 million cwt reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks to 34 million. This is slightly below the 35.3 million ending stocks of 2024/25.  The projected 2025/26 long-grain season-average farm price was increased by $0.50 per cwt to $12.50 or $5.63 per bushel.

In another surprise move, USDA wasted no time lowering their expectations for the 2025/26 U.S. cotton crop.  Pointing to the excessive rain and planting delays in the Delta, harvested acreage was lowered 2 percent this month to 8.19 million acres (see Table 2). The national average yield for 2025/26 was reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 pounds per acre, also because of the conditions in the Delta. As a result, the production forecast was reduced 500,000 bales to 14.0 million, below the 14.4 million bales produced in 2024/25 and the second smallest crop in the past decade. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 were reduced 400,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. The net result being a 900,000 bale reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales, very close to the 4.4 million bale 2024/25 carry-over. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 was unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.

As a reminder, USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30. It will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.  The acreage findings of the survey will be used in the July 11^th WASDE. A link to the June 2025 WASDE report may be found here.

Stiles, Scott, and Hunter Biram. “June WASDE Delivers Sharp Reduction in U.S. Rice and Cotton Crops.” Southern Ag Today 5(25.3). June 18, 2025. Permalink