Author: David Anderson

Cull cow prices normally decline in the Fall as supplies rise and the weather turns past grilling season.  This past Fall, even though total cow slaughter increased from summertime lows, cow prices showed little seasonal decline.  The market is starting 2026 much like it finished 2025, with high prices, but will prices be able to increase into mid-year like usual?

Southern Plains auction prices for 85-90 percent lean cows finished the year at $163 per cwt, about where they had been since June.  Nationally, cutter quality cows did experience a little seasonal decline, dropping as low as $124 after peaking over $135, but much of that decline was regained during December.  Live cow prices bucked the meat market trend, however.  The cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean beef both declined a little over 9 percent from September through the end of the year.  

Both beef cow and dairy cow slaughter increased from summer lows; the most dramatic increase came from the dairy side.  The number of dairy cows in the U.S. increased to more than 9.5 million head, the most since the early 1990s, leading to slightly increased dairy cow culling in the second half of 2025.  In the first half of the year, dairy cow culling was down 7.3 percent from the same period in 2024; it was 1.2 percent higher during the second half of the year compared to the previous year.  That small increase is reflective of a growing herd with more animals available to be culled.  Herd growth has been fueled by earlier profitable milk prices and by the high price of calves, especially those beef and dairy crossbred calves.  

Beef cow culling remained very low, down over 17 percent for the year, even though it increased seasonally late in 2025.  Beef cow slaughter is likely to remain low in the coming months because of the overall smaller herd and efforts to increase cow numbers.  

How much of a seasonal rally from January into June might we expect this year?  It’s likely that we’ll have a seasonal rally because beef demand remains good and supplies of lean beef for grinding remain tight.  Any significant increase in cow culling will come from the dairy side as very low milk prices hit bottom lines.  Beef imports, the majority of which are lean beef trimmings, should remain historically large this year.  Although it’s worth noting that imports were slightly lower than the previous year during the August-October period.  On balance, cull cow prices should remain in record high territory.

---

Anderson, David. “Will Cull Cow Prices Increase This Year?” Southern Ag Today 6(3.2). January 13, 2026. Permalink

We ended 2025 examining total meat supplies, so this week we’ll take a closer look at chicken production. 

If the reader will forgive the obvious joke about what comes first, 1 percent more eggs for broiler grow-out were set in 2025 compared to 2024.  That led to about 1 percent more chicks placed.  A few more broilers made it from placement to slaughter, leading to broiler slaughter growing by 2.1 percent over the prior year.  Combining more slaughter with 1.2 percent growth in weights generated a 3.3 percent increase in broiler production in 2025.

Increasing broiler production was jump started by profits from the combination of high broiler meat prices and falling feed costs.  Broilers have a cutout value calculated, much like beef and pork.  The broiler cutout value increased from $0.85 per pound in January 2025 to a peak of $1.07 per pound by May.  The peak value was about 12 cents per pound higher than the same point the year before and 62 percent higher than the 5-year average for the same period.  High prices in 2025 are built on higher price levels hit in 2024.  The cutout dropped rapidly later in 2025.  By the end of December, the cutout was down to $0.63 per pound.  

The decline in the cutout value is shown in the wholesale cuts that make up the cutout value.  Wholesale boneless, skinless breast meat has declined from a mid-year peak of $2.77 per pound to $1.16 per pound at the end of December, well below the almost $1.50 per pound the year before.  Legs have declined from about $0.90 per pound to $0.59 per pound over the same period.  

It’s playoff time for the NFL and for college football, and that usually leads to a discussion of chicken wings.  It’s often noted that wholesale wing prices tend to increase leading up to the Super Bowl.  In 2025, wing prices did increase leading up to the game, but they kept on climbing into mid-year, hitting a peak of $2.64 per pound.  By the end of December, wholesale wings were down to $0.98 per pound, almost half the $1.88 per pound at the end of 2024 and lower than the 5-year average price of $1.24 per pound.

Several industry challenges are in place for 2026.  The first is lower chicken meat prices, cutting into profits that would fuel more growth.  HPAI continues to occur, recently hitting broiler farms and at least one broiler breeder facility.  On the positive side, demand for chicken appears to be growing.  The latest CPI report indicated that chicken prices declined compared to a year ago, making chicken even more affordable relative to beef.  The number of eggs set and chicks placed in December 2025 were up 1.3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, compared to the year before.  So, it looks like more broiler production is coming early in 2026.  

---

Anderson, David. “Chicken Production Up and Prices Down.” Southern Ag Today 6(2.2). January 6, 2026. Permalink

Total meat production surged in December, with production of all major meat species higher than the year before.  It was a sharp contrast to the rest of the year, in which less beef and pork were produced than in 2024.  

Red Meat

Red meat production, led by beef and pork, normally increases seasonally, from Summer to Fall.  This year was no exception as both increased seasonally over that period.  Beef and pork production in December were 0.5 percent and 3.9 percent larger than in December 2024, respectively.  Larger December beef production may surprise some, given the talk all year of tighter beef supplies, but steer dressed weights surged to new record highs, over 980 pounds per head, leading to larger beef production.  Heavier barrow and gilt dressed weights than a year ago helped boost pork production, as well.  

For the year, red meat production was 1.9 percent less, about 1 billion pounds, than in 2024.  Beef production was down about 3.3 percent, and pork production was almost 0.5 percent smaller.  About 1 percent more lamb was produced in 2025.  For the third consecutive year, more pork than beef was produced.  

Poultry

While red meat production declined, young chickens (broilers) expanded their share of total meat production.  Broiler and turkey production increased 4.0 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, in December compared to last December.  Less expensive feed and higher wholesale broiler meat prices earlier in the year contributed profits to fuel increased production.  The late increase in turkey production might be considered “too little, too late” for the whole bird market since it was after Thanksgiving, and it followed on the heels of increasing production in the second half of the year. 

For the year, 3.5 percent (1.9 billion pounds) more broiler meat was produced than in 2024.  Turkey production was down about 122 million pounds.  On balance, increasing poultry production offset declining red meat production, leading to an increase in total meat production of about 800 million pounds.  

The new year should bring more poultry production from both broilers and turkeys.  Beef production will continue to decline, and pork may see a little increase in production.  I was asked recently if we are “running out of meat” during a discussion of declining beef production and high prices.  The quick and correct answer is “no!”  But, production market shares are changing.  

A note on data.  This article uses weekly meat and poultry production.  In much of our agricultural data, weeks don’t equal months.  The first day of a month may fall mid-week and end mid-week, so that data for a week’s production will include some in one month and some in another.  But, the monthly data released by USDA won’t dramatically affect the discussion above.

For some of us, Christmas means tamales!  To stick with the traditional tamale, this means pork. Yes, some people do make other kinds, and a wide variety are traditional in other countries and the Delta, but we will stick with pork for today’s article because it’s a good reminder to check on recent pork prices.

Hog and pork prices tend to have a highly seasonal pattern that, generally, peaks mid-year.  That price seasonality is related to production seasonality.  Hog slaughter is the lowest during the summer and tends to peak in the fall.  Dressed weights per carcass are usually the lowest in the heat of summer. Following slaughter and weights, pork production bottoms are the lowest in the summer and peaks in the fall.  

Pork production during June-August 2025 was 3.2 percent lower this year than last year.  However, since August, pork production has been 1 percent more than last year.  Production during the second week of December hit 593.6 million pounds, which was the largest weekly production in more than two years.  

Hog and wholesale pork prices have declined sharply as production has increased.  National, weighted average, hog carcass prices net of any carcass premiums and discounts were $82.96 per cwt in mid-December, down from a peak of $108.79 earlier in the summer.  The shoulder cuts, butts, and picnics are often used in pork tamales.  Pork butt and picnic primal values were $111.03 and $83.39 per cwt, respectively, in mid-December.  Both were a little above the values for the same week in 2024 and well below their summer peak.  

Hogs and Pigs report

USDA will release the December Hogs and Pigs report in the afternoon of December 23^rd (today, if you’re reading this early Tuesday morning).  Market analysts expect the breeding herd to be about 1 percent smaller than December 2024.  The number of market hogs should be about the same as a year ago.  The report will have an estimate of expected sow farrowings during the first 6 months of 2026.  Analysts expect farrowings to be slightly larger than during the first half of 2025.  The report will be an interesting one because producers have struggled over the last several years.  Falling feed costs and this past Summer’s high prices returned some profits to producers.  High fertilizer prices have made the manure much more valuable, helping the overall farm operation.  But, falling prices late this year brought profits down to about break even again.  

Tamale Day

My friends and I have our tamale-making day scheduled for December 21^st, so by the time you read this, we’ll be relaxing for Christmas.  All of us livestock economists at Southern Ag Today wish you the Merriest of Christmases!

Anderson, David. “Tamale Time!“ Southern Ag Today 5(52.2). December 23, 2025. Permalink

Dairy product prices and milk prices usually get a demand bump leading into the holidays due to baking ingredients and cheese.  That bump never materialized this Fall as rapidly rising milk supplies swamped any demand led increase in prices.  

Profitable milk prices in 2024 and lower feed prices started herd expansion.  Milk processing capacity has expanded, as well, supporting the increase in production.  Record high cattle prices have played an important role in dairy herd expansion through cull cow revenues and much higher prices for crossbred calves from dairy cows and beef bulls, often referred to as “beefxdairy” or “beef on dairy” calves.  

Starting with the dairy herd, the number of dairy cows hit 9.581 million head in September 2025.  That was 228,000 head more than in September 2024 and the most since the early 1990s.  While the number of dairy cows did decline by 6,000 head in October, the herd remains large.  

Like the rest of livestock agriculture, productivity has been increasing for many years.  Pounds of milk per cow totaled 2,033 in October, up 1.5 percent from October 2024.  More milk per cow, combined with the most cows since the early 1990s, produced 19.5 billion pounds in October, a 3.7 percent increase over October 2024.  

Milk and dairy product prices began to decline under the weight of record large milk production.  By early December, butter prices averaged $1.60 per pound, down from $2.59 per pound last year at this time.  Cheddar cheese, reported in 40 pound blocks, dropped to $160 per pound in early December compared to $1.78 last year.  Non-fat dry milk prices are about 18 percent lower than last year.  These product prices are used to calculate Class III and Class IV milk prices under federal milk marketing orders.  Class IV milk prices declined to under $14.00 per cwt in November, with Class III prices at $17.18 per cwt.  

These milk prices are very low and will lead to financial losses for many producers.  Losses should lead to some supply response, reducing milk production.  But, the impact of low milk prices will be offset somewhat by continued high cull cow and calf returns.  Dairy cow culling has increased late this year, slightly surpassing dairy cow slaughter in the second part of 2024.

---

Anderson, David. “Milk Prices Falling Fast.” Southern Ag Today 5(51.2). December 16, 2025. Permalink