Author: David Anderson

Cull cow prices typically decline this time of the year as beef and dairy cow culling ramp up and the beef market is fully past grilling season.  Cow prices this Fall have shown just a little seasonal decline as tight beef supplies keep prices high.

Southern Plains cow prices at auctions have been about $165 per cwt since mid-year, with a brief dip into the low $150s in the last 2 weeks.  Prices a year ago at this time were under $120 per cwt. and were declining to their Fall lows.  Cutter quality cows have declined from about $137 to about $129 per cwt over the last few weeks, showing a little more seasonal decline.  On the meat side, the boxed cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean boneless beef have shown little seasonal decline and are sitting at record levels.

Total cow slaughter includes dairy and beef cows.  Beef and dairy cow slaughter each exhibit a different seasonality based on production patterns.  Beef cow slaughter hits its peak in the Fall when most culling occurs around the country.  Dairy cow slaughter peaks early in the first quarter of the year but, does increase in the Fall.  The dairy herd has been expanding this year due to profits hitting over 9.5 million head on September 1, 2025, the most since 1993.  As the herd has grown, culling has increased.  For the year, total dairy cow slaughter is almost 19 percent smaller than the same period in 2024.  But, in the last 2 months dairy cow slaughter is equal to last year.  Beef cow slaughter remains well below last year but may begin to pick up seasonally in coming weeks.  In total, cow culling has closed the gap compared to last year in recent weeks but, it has not been enough to weaken prices.  

Cull cow prices are going to stay high.  While a little more beef cow culling should occur this Fall even with larger dairy cow culling it won’t be enough to drastically boost supplies.  There is little evidence of consumers switching to competing meats indicating that demand remains quite good.  So, overall, this should be the best Fall cull cow market ever.

Anderson, David. “Cull Cow Prices See Just a Little Seasonal Decline.” Southern Ag Today 5(41.2). October 7, 2025. Permalink

One of the questions that has been asked repeatedly lately is “how have we managed to keep beef production relatively high when we have the smallest cow herd since 1961?”  The simple answer is “productivity.”  The cattle industry produces more beef per cow than ever before.  Productivity changes are also occurring in the production of pork and lamb. This SAT article examines production per breeding animal for cattle, hogs, and lambs, with differing reasons in each sector.  We’ll follow up on poultry and dairy in a later article.

Cattle and Beef

Beef production per cow has, generally, increased during this century. Whether measured by production per beef cow or production per all cows (which includes dairy cows), there is an upward trend. The cattle cycle impacts production measures when herd expansion reduces beef production due to heifers and cows being held back.  Beef production per all cows has increased from 629 pounds per cow in 2000 to 724 pounds in 2024. The growth in production per cow is even more dramatic if measured by beef cows only, where production per cow has increased from 166 pounds per cow to 966 pounds in 2024.

Increasing beef production per cow has come, largely, from increased weights. Dressed weights for fed steers and heifers have steadily increased for many years. There is less evidence of changes in calving rates boosting productivity over the last 25 years.

Hogs and Pork

Pork production per sow has increased rapidly throughout this century, going from 3,041 pounds in 2000 to 4,635 pounds per sow in 2024, an increase of 52 percent.  In contrast to beef per cow, production per sow gains have come from rapid gains in pigs per litter, and litters per sow per year, along with weights. Barrow and gilt dressed weights have increased from about 190 pounds per head in 2000 to an average of 212 pounds per head in 2024. Pigs per litter have increased from 8.8 in 2000 to about 11.8 in 2024, while litters per sow per year have grown from 1.8 to about 1.94 over the same time period. 

In recent years, litters per year per sow and weights have declined while the number of pigs per litter has continued to grow. Disease events like Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PEDv) reduced pork production per sow.  

Lamb

Lamb and mutton production per ewe tells an opposite story to beef and pork over this century. Production per ewe has declined from about 57 pounds per ewe in 2000 to 48 pounds per ewe in 2024. The decline in production per ewe is mostly attributable to declining dressed weights. The industry has experienced a dramatic change over time due to the emergence and growth of the non-traditional market, with many buyers desiring smaller carcasses. The growth of hair sheep breeds replacing many traditional wool breeds has also likely aided in that dressed weight decline.  

Production per breeding animal is one way to look at productivity changes over time.  Economic incentives, genetics, nutrition, animal health, and market changes have all been involved in changing productivity. Other efficiency measures could also be employed to examine productivity. But, this simple measure of pounds per breeding animal goes a long way in examining the changing structure of livestock industries.  

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Anderson, David, and Charley Martinez. “Productivity In Cattle, Hogs, and Lambs.” Southern Ag Today 5(37.2). September 9, 2025. Permalink

Meat prices exhibit strong seasonal patterns reflecting seasonal supplies.  On the demand side, holidays and seasonal consumer preferences contribute to meat price patterns.  Grilling season is a big demand pattern for beef, boosting ground beef and steaks during the summer.  Seasonally tighter pork supplies during the summer boost pork prices.  Now that Labor Day is past, marking the traditional end of summer as schools are back in session for most, will wholesale meat prices stick to their normal seasonality?

Beef

The Choice boxed beef cutout, a measure of the wholesale value of primal cuts in a carcass, tends to decline after mid-year.  One factor is that beef production tends to increase from earlier lows.  On the demand side, consumers move to more Fall and Winter fare and less grilling.  

It looks like sharply declining beef production is going to disrupt the usual seasonal price pattern.  Weekly beef production has been down more than 10 percent in some recent weeks compared to the same week a year ago.  On the steak side of the market, wholesale ribeye prices have surged more than $3 per pound to $14.72 per pound last week.  This is an earlier than usual price increase for this cut that normally increases heading into the holidays.  Full tenderloins have increased like the ribeye, going from $15 per pound $18.65 per pound over the last few weeks.  Strip loins have stuck to their normal pattern, declining a little more than $3 per pound since mid-year.  Boneless, 90 percent lean beef continues to increase as fewer beef cows are culled.  Chucks are climbing faster and higher than they usually do headed into Fall, hitting $6.50 per pound last week.  

Pork

Wholesale pork prices usually have a strong seasonal component with the highest prices of the year during the Summer due to less production at that time.  But, pork production has lagged below a year ago since before the Fourth of July and while it should increase seasonally it will likely remain below last year.  It looks like more pigs per litter are not making up for fewer sows.

All of the wholesale pork primals are higher priced than last year, reflecting less production.  Pork loins and butts are following the normal pattern, declining in value since mid-year.  Ribs, bellies, and hams have moved higher.  These three cuts can often be used as a great illustration of price volatility, and this year is no exception.  As with beef, it looks like tighter supplies are going to outweigh seasonal patterns this Fall.

Overall

This SAT article focused on beef and pork.  We’ll look at chicken and turkey in coming weeks, especially with Thanksgiving approaching.  Overall, less production combined with good meat demand is certainly pressuring prices higher.  Some volatility is added to the wholesale market as spot buying occurs to fill immediate needs.  

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Anderson, David. “Meat Prices After Labor Day.” Southern Ag Today 5(36.2). September 2, 2025. Permalink

USDA released its August Cattle on Feed report on Friday, August 22^nd.  While the easy headline numbers were that 1.6 percent fewer cattle were on feed from 4 percent fewer marketings and 6.1 percent fewer placements, the level of placements leave a few questions.

The decline in placements was not quite as large as the average pre-report estimate expected.  July’s 6.1 percent decline in placements compared to last July amounted to 104,000 head.  Feeder cattle imports from Mexico were about 128,000 head fewer than last July.  So, if the border had been open, not considering any other events, placements might have been larger than last year.   

For the year through July, placements are 5.2 percent smaller than last year, or 643,000 head.  Through July, about 628,000 fewer feeder cattle have been imported from Mexico than in 2024.  Almost all the decline in placements this year can be attributed to the border closure.  It is a bit surprising that domestic placements are not lower, given the smaller calf crops.  There are a couple of assumptions in this worth remembering.  While imported Mexican feeder cattle do eventually go to feedyards, they may graze pastures and rangeland prior to placement, which might create some timing issues.  It’s likely that if the border had been open this year that imports would have lagged behind 2024’s fast pace.

So, where are we finding all these domestic, U.S. produced feeders to place in feedlots?  One answer could be that high calf prices are encouraging producers to sell now, pulling feeder cattle placements ahead.  It may also be that some producers are continuing to sell heifers.  The decision between selling now at record prices or counting on future returns may still favor selling now for some producers.  

One consideration is that selling and placing those feeders early may squeeze the supply of stocker cattle for winter grazing later this Fall.  Recent rains in some wheat pasture areas might suggest the opportunity for grazing, but there may be fewer available stockers.   

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Anderson, David, and Josh Maples. “Fewer Cattle on Feed But, Some Questions.” Southern Ag Today 5(35.2). August 26, 2025. Permalink

Tariffs and trade have been a big topic across the economy and agriculture.  In the lamb industry, tariffs have been controversial, with producers on both sides questioning their necessity.  The lamb industry is a smaller agricultural sector in the U.S. but one in which there has been some growth in the South, particularly since the introduction of hair sheep breeds.  

Some Historical Context

Lamb imports have been a controversial topic for many years.  Surging imports in the early 1990s led to investigations by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) on unfair trading practices by Australia and New Zealand.  Tariffs, as a remedy for rising imports, were not imposed and domestic production continued to decline.  (As an aside, part of my PhD dissertation research, longer ago than I would like to admit, looked at the potential impact of a 10 percent tariff on imported lamb).  By 2006, imports exceeded domestic production.  In 2024, lamb and mutton imports amounted to about 70 percent of total supplies on the U.S. market.  

Almost all, over 99 percent, of imported lamb and mutton comes from Australia and New Zealand.  About 75 percent of imports are from Australia.  New Zealand has made up a declining share of U.S. imports over time.  In 2024, about 85 percent of the total product coming in was lamb and the rest mutton. 

This Year

The lamb industry in the U.S. is evolving with the growth of non-traditional markets and some growth in demand.  Increasing production in recent years is linked to grazing solar properties where the economic incentive for growth is on the grazing services side and not necessarily driven by meat demand.  

Compared to record imports in 2024, monthly imports in 2025 have been mixed.  Imports tend to peak in Spring as Easter and other holiday driven demand boosts prices.  This year was no exception as imports peaked in April with Easter falling on April 21^st.  A 10 percent tariff on goods from Australia and New Zealand began in early April.  Imports declined in May and June compared to the historically high levels in 2024.  

Can we attribute the decline in imports to the tariff?  It’s probably not that easy. The lamb market makes a great illustration that other market factors may be more important than tariffs.   Imports tend to decline seasonally after Easter.    Relative prices in the trading countries are also important.  Lamb prices have been rising in Australia and recently hit record highs for live lambs.  Leg of lamb prices for comparable Australian and U.S products indicates that Australian prices have been rising relative to U.S. prices since 2024.  Relatively more expensive Australian lamb would likely reduce some imports.  The U.S. dollar has been weakening versus the Australian dollar over the last 4 months which should also lower imports. All of these things, along with the new tariff, are impacting lamb imports.

A lot of other questions remain about tariffs on lamb.  Is this tariff high enough to help the domestic industry and what would be an effective tariff?  How much would higher tariffs hurt consumption?  If tariffs resulted in higher lamb prices for producers, would we respond by producing more lamb and causing prices to decline?  The impact of tariffs will be interesting to watch approach next spring. 

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Anderson, David. “Tariffs and Trade in the Lamb Market.” Southern Ag Today 5(34.2). August 19, 2025. Permalink