Author: David Anderson

Tariffs and trade have been a big topic across the economy and agriculture.  In the lamb industry, tariffs have been controversial, with producers on both sides questioning their necessity.  The lamb industry is a smaller agricultural sector in the U.S. but one in which there has been some growth in the South, particularly since the introduction of hair sheep breeds.  

Some Historical Context

Lamb imports have been a controversial topic for many years.  Surging imports in the early 1990s led to investigations by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) on unfair trading practices by Australia and New Zealand.  Tariffs, as a remedy for rising imports, were not imposed and domestic production continued to decline.  (As an aside, part of my PhD dissertation research, longer ago than I would like to admit, looked at the potential impact of a 10 percent tariff on imported lamb).  By 2006, imports exceeded domestic production.  In 2024, lamb and mutton imports amounted to about 70 percent of total supplies on the U.S. market.  

Almost all, over 99 percent, of imported lamb and mutton comes from Australia and New Zealand.  About 75 percent of imports are from Australia.  New Zealand has made up a declining share of U.S. imports over time.  In 2024, about 85 percent of the total product coming in was lamb and the rest mutton. 

This Year

The lamb industry in the U.S. is evolving with the growth of non-traditional markets and some growth in demand.  Increasing production in recent years is linked to grazing solar properties where the economic incentive for growth is on the grazing services side and not necessarily driven by meat demand.  

Compared to record imports in 2024, monthly imports in 2025 have been mixed.  Imports tend to peak in Spring as Easter and other holiday driven demand boosts prices.  This year was no exception as imports peaked in April with Easter falling on April 21^st.  A 10 percent tariff on goods from Australia and New Zealand began in early April.  Imports declined in May and June compared to the historically high levels in 2024.  

Can we attribute the decline in imports to the tariff?  It’s probably not that easy. The lamb market makes a great illustration that other market factors may be more important than tariffs.   Imports tend to decline seasonally after Easter.    Relative prices in the trading countries are also important.  Lamb prices have been rising in Australia and recently hit record highs for live lambs.  Leg of lamb prices for comparable Australian and U.S products indicates that Australian prices have been rising relative to U.S. prices since 2024.  Relatively more expensive Australian lamb would likely reduce some imports.  The U.S. dollar has been weakening versus the Australian dollar over the last 4 months which should also lower imports. All of these things, along with the new tariff, are impacting lamb imports.

A lot of other questions remain about tariffs on lamb.  Is this tariff high enough to help the domestic industry and what would be an effective tariff?  How much would higher tariffs hurt consumption?  If tariffs resulted in higher lamb prices for producers, would we respond by producing more lamb and causing prices to decline?  The impact of tariffs will be interesting to watch approach next spring. 

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Anderson, David. “Tariffs and Trade in the Lamb Market.” Southern Ag Today 5(34.2). August 19, 2025. Permalink

The record high retail beef price reported by the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a lot of calls about why prices are record high and whether there is any relief in sight.  While we often write about the great cattle prices for producers who are selling, there is a flip side, and that is consumers who are buying beef.  

Reduced slaughter and beef production, especially in the second quarter of the year, cut supplies just as grilling season heated up seasonal beef demand.  The combination led to a spike in wholesale prices and retail beef prices.  

Is there a chance for consumers to see falling retail beef prices in the coming months?  Normal seasonal production and demand would suggest prices falling from recent highs.  Evidence from the wholesale beef market over the last couple of weeks indicates lower prices.

Starting with the cutout, the Choice boxed beef cutout has declined each week since it hit a record high weekly average value of $394 per cwt 4 weeks ago.  Each of the seven primal cuts that make up the cutout has declined in price over this period.  

Ribeye steaks exhibit the normal seasonal pattern that peaks early in grilling season, then declines after Memorial Day.  Ribeyes hit their annual peak price in late Fall as holiday demand drives them higher. Following the pattern, wholesale beef ribeyes peaked in price at $14.18 per pound.  They have since declined to $10.50 per pound, only slightly ahead of last year.  

Loin strips usually hit their annual wholesale price peak leading up to July 4^th.  They hit $11.84 per pound in June and have since dropped to $9.68 per pound.  The price remains higher than last year, but wholesale spot market prices are coming down. 

Wholesale 90 and 50 percent lean boneless beef prices continued to increase into July.  The 50 percent lean price hit an all-time record of $2.62 per pound.  Lean boneless beef is particularly impacted by fed beef supplies, which have been cut due to declining slaughter and seasonally lower weights.  Boneless beef prices tend to decline seasonally after mid-year as we get past the grilling season rush in demand.  

Seasonal price patterns would suggest that there is a chance for a little bit of relief from record high beef prices.  But, only if we compare to the peak price this summer.  Wholesale beef prices are already declining.  

There is a time lag from lower wholesale prices showing up at retail, but lower wholesale prices combined with normal seasonality of various cut prices should lead to the expectation of falling prices in the coming months.  But, it’s not likely that prices will decline below year ago levels.  

A Preview

USDA will release the July Cattle on Feed report on Friday.  While market analysts expect lower placements, marketings, and cattle in feedyards than a year ago, the really interesting number will be the number of heifers on feed on July 1.  The heifers on feed will provide some insight into heifer retention.  Also, look for placements in Texas due to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle.  The lack of spayed heifers coming from Mexico is important in evaluating the number of heifers on feed.

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Anderson, David. “Any Relief in Sight for Consumers?” Southern Ag Today 5(30.2). July 22, 2025. Permalink

We’ve written a lot in Southern Ag Today over the last couple of months on cattle and beef prices, but some other things are happening in livestock markets.  Hog prices have jumped to their highest level in three years, bringing some needed profits to the industry.  

Weekly national average barrow and gilt carcass prices, net of premiums and discounts, hit $113.14 per cwt at the end of June.  That was the highest price since the beginning of September 2022.  The average price a year ago was $88.79 per cwt.  Higher hog prices are showing up in higher wholesale pork prices, as well.  Wholesale hams, pork bellies, loins, ribs, and trimmings for sausage have all been increasing in price in recent weeks.  

Hog and pork prices tend to increase seasonally during the Summer due to reduced production during summer months.  Over the last 8 weeks, barrow and gilt slaughter is about 2 percent less than last year.  Total pork production is down 0.7 percent over the last 8 weeks compared to last year.  To get an idea of the seasonal decline in pork production this year, weekly production averaged 507.5 million pounds in June compared to 555.3 million pounds per week in January.  That seasonal decline is not unusual compared to past years.

The price increase, especially when combined with lower feed costs, has brought some much needed profits to the production side of the industry.  The industry has been largely treading water over the last year following large financial losses from 2022 into early 2024.  Small profits have kept the sow herd declining in number, down to 5.979 million sows on June 1, 2025, the fewest since 2016.  While the sow herd has been declining, the number of pigs saved per litter has continued to climb, hitting a record 11.7 pigs per litter over the last 6 months.  

It appears that higher prices and profits will work their magic to spur a production increase in 2026.  Hog producers reported in the USDA’s June Hogs and Pigs report to increase their intended number of sows farrowing in the last quarter of 2025.  Increased sows farrowing combined with more pigs per litter should boost production in the first half of 2026.  

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Anderson, David. “Hog Prices Hit 3-Year Highs.” Southern Ag Today 5(28.2). July 8, 2025. Permalink

USDA released the latest Cattle on Feed report amid record high cattle and beef prices.  While the report did not have any big surprises compared to analyst’s pre-report estimates there were some noteworthy data points.  Marketings were 10.1 percent fewer in May 2025 than last May.  Some of that was attributable to one less working day in the month, but the rest was due to fewer fed cattle slaughtered.  An earlier SAT discussed fewer fed cattle being processed on Fridays over the last couple of months.  

Fewer cattle were placed into feedyards in May, with placements 7.8 percent below last year.  But, placements in Texas and Oklahoma feedyards were down 16.8 and 21.6 percent compared to last year, likely reflecting the continued border closing restricting the supply of Mexican feeder cattle.  Fewer placements and marketing left the total number of cattle on feed down 1.2 percent compared to last year.  

Fewer cattle marketed from feedlots means reduced fed cattle slaughter and beef production.  Beef production over the last 8 weeks has been 5.5 percent below the same period last year.  A smaller percentage of the beef graded has been grading Choice indicating tighter supplies of Choice beef in addition to lower overall supplies.  While a lot has been made of continued good demand for beef pushing prices higher, certainly reduced supplies are helping higher prices too.

On the price side, the Choice cutout surged to $390 per cwt on Friday June 20^th.  That was a record except for May 2020.  All of the Choice primal cuts have been racing higher except for the rib which has been declining, as it often does this time of the year.  Of note, just as Texas Monthly’s Top 50 BBQ joints edition hit the mailbox primal Choice briskets kept climbing to almost $3.40 per pound.  This would be a record brisket price except for May 2020 when the pandemic closed packing plants and a surge of buying depleted supplies.  

While not one of the primals that make up the boxed beef cutout value, 50 percent lean beef has skyrocketed in value to almost $190 per cwt, compared to about $1.00 per pound last year.  This beef is largely the product of fed cattle and makes up part of the supplies of ground beef.  Fewer fed cattle marketed and slaughtered in recent weeks has likely cut into supplies while the demand for ground beef remains good.  

The marketings side of the cattle on feed report highlights today’s tight supplies of cattle and beef.  Reduced production is part of the story of record beef prices.

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Anderson, David. “Fewer Marketings, Tighter Beef Supplies.” Southern Ag Today 5(26.2). June 24, 2025. Permalink

Over the last 2 months, the rapidly changing tariff environment has had livestock market analysts anxiously awaiting USDA trade data releases.  The latest monthly trade data from the USDA was published on June 6^th.  It included meat and livestock exports and imports for April 2025.
 
Trade is interesting because of all the moving parts.  Tariffs are only a part of the story.  Domestic production impacts prices, creating incentives to import or export.  For example, record high beef prices creates an incentive to import more beef and export less.  Relative prices between countries, exchange rates, shipping costs and availability, and other countries’ actions may impact trade, overwhelming the effect of a new tariff.  
 
U.S. companies exported 237 million pounds of beef in April, an 18.5 million pound decline from March and 22.3 million pounds less than April 2024.  Exports to China declined the most, down 27.7 million pounds, or 34 percent, compared to March.  The impact of China on total U.S. beef exports was partially offset by larger exports to Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.  It’s not unusual for beef exports to decline from March to April.  On the pork side, exports declined 58 million pounds, or 9 percent, from March, and 73 million pounds less than April 2024.  Shipments to most markets declined, led by Canada, Mexico, and China.  The decline in pork exports to Canada accounted for 41 percent of the total export reduction from March.
 
Beef imports declined in April compared to March, down 27 million pounds.  As with exports, it’s normal for imports to decline from March to April.  Fewer imports came from Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Uruguay.  Imports jumped 17.8 million pounds, 17 percent, from Brazil.  The increase in imports from Brazil bucked the usual trend of declining imports after January.  
 
Lamb imports have been a very contentious issue for the industry for many years.  The imposition of tariffs on Australian and New Zealand imports, which make up 99 percent of U.S. lamb imports, has had industry backers and detractors.  Imports in April were 5 percent larger than those in March and 10 percent larger than those in April 2024.  Some other factors are clearly at work in the lamb market, and it may take more time to see any impacts of tariffs that were imposed in early April.
 
The April trade data gives us an early glimpse at the impacts of tariffs on meat trade.  The May data may give us a better look at impacts because that will better account for shipping time lags for some markets.  Clearly, the very large tariffs between the U.S. and China did impact that transaction.  Other markets with smaller tariff levels may not reveal large changes yet.

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Anderson, David. “A Little More Insight on Meat Trade.” Southern Ag Today 5(24.2). June 10, 2025. Permalink