Author: David Anderson

Amid the drumbeat of bad news in the cattle market over the last month, including on-again, off-again tariffs, jawboning for lower beef prices, and now Tyson’s announcement that they will close their beef packing plant in Lexington, NE, in January, USDA released a cattle on feed report.  (We’ll look at the impact of the plant closure on packing capacity in a future SAT).    USDA caught up on cattle on feed following the shutdown when they released the COF report on Friday, November 21^st.

The report did not contain many surprises.  Placements and marketings were down 10 percent and 8 percent, compared to October 2024.  The combination left the number of cattle on feed down 1.6 percent compared to November 1, 2024. 

The most interesting, and important, number in the report was the number of heifers on feed.  Heifers on feed is normally reported in the October report, but that was delayed due to the shutdown.  There were 4.355 million heifers on feed on October 1, 2025.  That was 245,000 fewer than October 1, 2024, and the fewest heifers on feed for an October since 2018.  It also represented the 5^th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines in the number of heifers on feed.  That would seem to be positive news if looking for evidence of herd expansion. 

But the heifer data on feed for October 2024 would have included spayed heifers imported from Mexico.  Over the April-September 2024 period, 266,559 spayed heifers were imported.  So, the decline in heifers on feed reflects no imported heifers from Mexico this year and any decline in domestic heifer feedlot placement.  The expectation is that fewer spayed heifers would have been imported this year compared to last year, but considering imports, the report doesn’t indicate a lot of heifer retention.

The report included a rare event with Texas slipping to number 2, reporting 10,000 fewer cattle on feed than Nebraska, 2.63 million head versus 2.64 million head.  The last time Nebraska had more cattle in feedyards than Texas was May 2018.  The lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports is the most important factor in this ranking reversal.  

There were a couple of other interesting numbers to think about.  More steers were reported on feed than a year ago.  At first glance, we might think that seems surprising given the decline in cow numbers, but days on feed is boosting total cattle on feed inventories, given overall declines in cattle numbers.

All of us livestock economists at Southern Ag Today wish you all a blessed Thanksgiving with as many of your family and friends as possible!

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Anderson, David. “A COF Report Comes Out Among Other Headlines.” Southern Ag Today 5(48.2). November 25, 2025. Permalink

All the talk of relaxing tariffs on imported beef, knowing that the majority of our beef imports are lean beef trimmings to go into ground beef competing with cull cow beef, suggested it might be time to take a quick look at the cull cow market.  

Most will remember that cull cow prices tend to hit their seasonal lows in the Fall.  The most important reason for the price decline is that more cows are culled from the herd in the Fall.  For beef cattle, the largest proportion of cows are culled in the Fall following calf weaning.  On the dairy side, cow culling increases from summertime lows.  The increase in supplies of cows for sale results in lower prices.  Another contributor to lower prices is the end of grilling season, with consumers shifting over to more Fall and Winter consumption patterns.  

So far this Fall, the cull cow market has defied normal seasonality.  Southern Plains cull cow auction prices hit about $165 per cwt back in June and have remained there since then.  A couple weeks of declines were followed by rebounds back to about $165 per cwt.  National average cutter quality cows have declined recently, slipping about $9 per cwt to $126.

While the live cow market has not declined much, the same cannot be said for the cow beef market.  The boxed cow beef cutout climbed to $340 per cwt but has declined to $317 over the last two months.  Wholesale 90 percent lean beef has declined from $436 to $404 per cwt over the same period.  Both the boxed beef cutout and wholesale 90 percent lean have followed the normal season pattern, declining into the Fall.  

We are likely to see some increased culling from the dairy side of the beef industry in the coming months.  USDA’s latest milk production report indicated the nation’s dairy cow herd at 9.85 million head.  That is the largest herd since at least 1993.  Milk production in September was 4 percent larger than the year before.  Milk prices are beginning to decline sharply with increased production.  There is no doubt that the increased returns from using beef bull instead of dairy breed semen to produce cross bred calves is boosting profits and aiding in the dairy herd expansion.  Beef cow culling is likely to remain low due to the historically small cow herd and incentives to expand.  More dairy cow culling and less beef cow culling will continue to leave cull cow prices high.

It’s turkey time, and a good opportunity to look at turkey prices and supplies as we head towards the big day.  Much higher wholesale prices have been in the news, so it’s also a good chance to examine wholesale versus retail prices and grocery store sales strategies.  

Wholesale, national average, 8-16 pound turkey prices are up a whopping 82 percent compared to last year in early November!  The heavier Tom turkeys weighing 16-24 pounds are up even more, 88 percent, compared to last year.  It’s important to recognize that these are spot market, wholesale prices, and that most people are interested in the retail prices they are going to have to pay this year.    

USDA publishes a weekly turkey retail feature report.  This report, using data from over 24,000 retail outlets across the country, indicates special and feature prices for turkey.  Whole, frozen turkeys weighing less than 16 pounds and those weighing more than 16 pounds averaged $0.93 and $0.92 per pound, respectively, this week.  Turkeys of those weights were $1.19 and $1.15 per pound last year.  Grocery store featured frozen turkey prices appear to be lower than last year.  Good news for consumers!  If you like a fresh turkey instead of frozen, those retail prices are running higher than last year.

To understand how the wholesale and retail prices can move in different directions it’s worth remembering that most outlets contract their estimated turkey needs early in the year.  Those contracted prices are likely much lower than the current wholesale market.  Actual retail turkey prices that consumers pay often reflect special prices and features.  As a grocery store meat buyer told me a long time ago, “The quickest way to get fired is to run out of turkeys at Thanksgiving!”  The wholesale price reflects buyers spur of the moment additional needs and the available supplies to fill those orders.  

For the year to date, total turkey production is about 3 percent less than last year.  But, since mid-year, production is about 2 percent higher than last year.  Total production has caught up after shortfalls early in 2025.  Overall, fewer turkeys have been produced this year, and fewer birds are in cold storage awaiting Thanksgiving.  HPAI is again impacting the spot market for turkeys.  Outbreaks on turkey farms have ramped up in the last 6 weeks in both Canada and northern states like Michigan, hitting those producers especially hard prior to the holiday driven demands. 

It looks like wholesale prices are much higher than last year, and retail pricing specials appear to be in full swing heading towards Thanksgiving.  Consumers may find a deal.  While we always talk about turkey price movements this time of the year, it always strikes me that the whole bird provides a lot of value for the dollar.  Most people get several meals from the bird.  If you’re blessed to have Thanksgiving dinner with family and friends, you’ll get a lot more value than can be reflected in money.

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Anderson, David. “Some Special Prices for Turkey Day.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.2). November 11, 2025. Permalink

We’ll take a break from the cattle and beef market news of the last week to take a look at dairy markets. However, there is one important interaction between beef and dairy markets that intersects with recent news.

Profitable milk prices and falling feed costs in 2024 have led to a surge in the number of dairy cows since the first of the year.  USDA’s August Milk Production report indicated 9.52 million dairy cows in the U.S.  That is the highest number of dairy cows since 1993.  The number of dairy cows in the U.S. has typically fluctuated between 9.3 and 9.4 million over the last decade.  Cow numbers are particularly higher in the Plains.  Dairy cows in Texas hit 699,000 head; this is the most dairy cows in the state since 1958!  Milk processing capacity is growing hand in hand with cow numbers.  

In addition to more cows, milk production per cow has increased since April.  Production per cow hit 2,050 pounds in August, the largest August milk production per cow on record, up 1.3 percent compared to August 2024.  The combination of more cows and more milk per cow has milk production up 3.6 percent over the last 3 months compared to the same period last year.  

As production has surged, prices are beginning to decline sharply.  Cheese, butter, and non-fat dry milk (NFDM) prices are the basic product prices forming federal milk marketing order prices.  Cheddar cheese, 40 pound blocks, has moved between about $1.95 and $1.70 per pound all year.  While prices should be increasing seasonally, heading into the holidays, they are about $0.30 per pound below a year ago.  Butter prices have declined sharply over the last few weeks from $2.50 per pound to about $1.70 in mid-October.  NFDM prices have fallen sharply to $1.14 per pound, their lowest price of the year.  Lower product prices are filtering through to much lower milk prices to dairy farmers.

One area of interaction between dairy and beef cows is the cull cow market.  While beef cow slaughter remains much lower than last year, dairy cow slaughter is picking up and has been equal to last year since mid-year.  More dairy cows in the herd, falling milk prices, and record high cull cow prices will likely cause some more cow culling in the coming weeks.  A recent newspaper article quoted a dairy farmer in Wisconsin as saying we really needed more dairy culling to boost milk prices and increase supplies of beef. Harkening back to the 1980s and the dairy herd buyouts, which caused even more worries for many cattle producers. At the moment, there is no government program to encourage dairy cow culling. Unless something changes, it looks like the market will take care of this, too.

Anderson, David. “A Wave of Milk and Slumping Prices.” Southern Ag Today 5(44.2). October 28, 2025. Permalink

Cull cow prices typically decline this time of the year as beef and dairy cow culling ramp up and the beef market is fully past grilling season.  Cow prices this Fall have shown just a little seasonal decline as tight beef supplies keep prices high.

Southern Plains cow prices at auctions have been about $165 per cwt since mid-year, with a brief dip into the low $150s in the last 2 weeks.  Prices a year ago at this time were under $120 per cwt. and were declining to their Fall lows.  Cutter quality cows have declined from about $137 to about $129 per cwt over the last few weeks, showing a little more seasonal decline.  On the meat side, the boxed cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean boneless beef have shown little seasonal decline and are sitting at record levels.

Total cow slaughter includes dairy and beef cows.  Beef and dairy cow slaughter each exhibit a different seasonality based on production patterns.  Beef cow slaughter hits its peak in the Fall when most culling occurs around the country.  Dairy cow slaughter peaks early in the first quarter of the year but, does increase in the Fall.  The dairy herd has been expanding this year due to profits hitting over 9.5 million head on September 1, 2025, the most since 1993.  As the herd has grown, culling has increased.  For the year, total dairy cow slaughter is almost 19 percent smaller than the same period in 2024.  But, in the last 2 months dairy cow slaughter is equal to last year.  Beef cow slaughter remains well below last year but may begin to pick up seasonally in coming weeks.  In total, cow culling has closed the gap compared to last year in recent weeks but, it has not been enough to weaken prices.  

Cull cow prices are going to stay high.  While a little more beef cow culling should occur this Fall even with larger dairy cow culling it won’t be enough to drastically boost supplies.  There is little evidence of consumers switching to competing meats indicating that demand remains quite good.  So, overall, this should be the best Fall cull cow market ever.

Anderson, David. “Cull Cow Prices See Just a Little Seasonal Decline.” Southern Ag Today 5(41.2). October 7, 2025. Permalink