There have been over 20 million commercial table/shell egg laying hens lost already in 2025 alone due to High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Losses have impacted egg supply and prices have spiked. At the time of this writing, nationally, large white shell eggs are over $8.00 per dozen. Discussions over HPAI vaccination have been going on at some level from the beginning of this outbreak in 2022, but just recently a conditional approval has been given for a vaccine to be used here in the U.S. While vaccination holds some promise, it has its own set of problems and costs that must be balanced with the potential gains from controlling the virus.
As a stopgap measure to boost egg supplies, it has been suggested that surplus eggs from broiler hatcheries could be transferred into the egg products market, replacing shell eggs that could then be sold as fresh, helping lower prices. Eggs that go into egg products are used for things like dressings, sauces, etc. or for powered egg products like cake mixes. These products are pasteurized and considered some of the safest egg products available for human consumption. The surplus broiler eggs come from the occasional over-supply of hatching eggs not being able to be set to hatch. They are currently used for animal feed products or often simply disposed of. At one time, they were allowed to enter the edible egg products market. Using surplus broiler eggs stopped in 2009 when a law specifically targeting normal table egg handling and storage was passed requiring ALL eggs, whether sold fresh or used for egg products, be handled in such a way that precludes the surplus broiler eggs from the process. Now, some are asking the law be rescinded or modified to allow broiler eggs to again be used to help relieve the current egg shortage.
To analyze this question, we must look at a few big numbers. First, it is estimated by the National Chicken Council that there would be an annual surplus of “…almost 400 million broiler eggs (going) into the egg breaking supply each year…” That is a lot of eggs, but would it affect the price of table eggs? According to the USDA-Economic Research Service, total table egg production for 2024 was 7,751 million dozen, or over 93 billion eggs. If we assume an even distribution, that’s 7.75 billion eggs being produced per month! If we evenly distribute the surplus broiler egg supply, it could provide an additional 33.6 million eggs per month, or about 0.4% of the monthly total – an amount not likely to make any appreciable difference in the current prices. Still, there is no reason not to add these eggs into the market, but there should be no expectation of any significant price impact for doing so. It would however benefit the broiler companies as a market outlet for eggs that are often a loss. And if a few more eggs hit the store shelves, that’s not a bad thing.
Fig. 1 – Egg prices declined and stayed close to the recent annual average of around $2.00/dz for a couple of months after the most recent spike in January 2023. The current spike far outweighed that spike and will likely not abate for some time.
In a recent Southern Ag Today article, Anderson and Maples addressed increasing slaughter weights in beef cattle while also mentioning slaughter weights are increasing in swine and poultry. In this article, we will address poultry weights, specifically broilers.
Broiler slaughter weight has been increasing, however, the reasons for the increase are different than was outlined in the referenced beef article. The trend is a long-term situation rather than a short- or intermediate-term phenomenon. Broiler weights have been on a steady increase since the 1920s. The primary driver of these increases is market-derived; it is a slow change based on U.S. poultry consumers’ desire combined with the changing genetic potential of the birds. Unlike the beef industry, where the producers, feeders, and packers are usually separate entities, the poultry companies producing chicken own the chickens and control their genetics and production from the egg to chicken sandwich.
Most chickens in the U.S. are produced to meet specific market demands, and this requires varying sizes of birds. Grocery store chill-packaged products like split breasts or boneless breasts usually come from birds in the 6– 7-pound range. Fast food chicken restaurants like Popeyes or KFC typically require smaller birds to fill their “pieces” menu. These birds are usually 3.5-to-4-pound slaughter weight. The same companies sell chicken sandwiches that require filets from larger birds of upwards to 9-pound slaughter weight. Frozen processed chicken fingers and sandwich filets at the grocery store are best produced from larger birds as well. As consumers have demanded more chicken sandwiches, chicken fingers, breast filets, etc., and fewer whole birds or cut-up pieces, poultry companies have moved their genetic target toward producing birds that more efficiently meet these demands per square foot of grow-out space. Simply put, you can get more chicken fingers per square foot of grow-out space from a bigger chicken. This demand has pushed companies to produce more of the larger birds and increase the size of the larger birds (Fig 1). Since companies own the chickens and control the genetics and production, they can make these changes in response to consumer trends quickly and sustain those changes over time. From 1955 to 2021, the combined average of all broiler sizes in the U.S. increased from 3 pounds to approximately 6.5 pounds, or 116%, in response to U.S. consumer demands. But that’s not the whole story. Along with increasing weights, the poultry industry has decreased the amount of feed needed by 38 percent, from 3.0 pounds to 1.85 pounds of feed per pound of gain. The time it takes to achieve average market weight has decreased by about 20 days. Overall mortality has also decreased, though recently a change in production methods has caused a slight uptick in mortality (Fig 2). All these changes have been achieved by foundational efforts in genetics, nutritional advances, and grow-out environment/housing improvements. Overall, this represents a case study in sustainability – producing more output with fewer inputs. In commercial poultry’s case, that means more chicken for less feed, over less time, with less environmental impact.
Fig 1. Broiler weights (bird size) have increased a remarkable amount from the 1950’s to the modern bird of today. These changes have been the result of focused genetics, improved nutrition and bird environment.
(Source: Aviagen Inc.)
Fig. 2: From 1955 to modern day, average broiler weights have increased by 116 percent. At the same time, feed conversion has improved by 38 percent. Days of age to slaughter have also decreased by 27 percent, and mortality by 21 percent.
Lbs/Percent on the left and days on the right. (National Chicken Council data)
It is the heart of the winter in the southeastern broiler belt. January and February are typically the coldest, but March often comes in like a lion, bringing plenty of cold with it, too. Commercial poultry growers have embraced the risk management strategy of pre-buying or contract “booking” propane ahead to secure the lowest prices possible each year. But by the end of the season, it is not unheard of for growers to run out of pre-purchased or contracted allotments and be left subject to late-season cash market price fluctuations or potentially purchasing additional contract allotments at increased prices. This can leave growers wondering which option is best to end the season. There are several things to consider.
U.S. propane prices are certainly affected by local markets, but the wholesale component for those prices is still impacted by international supply and demand pressure on crude oil. It seems the current world economy is slowing, especially the Chinese economy, potentially signaling a decreased demand for oil. Less oil production usually means less propane production/supply, supporting a higher price. This could be somewhat offset by increased war demands on petroleum production. Locally, Gulf Coast propane supplies are hovering at the top of the five-year average (Fig. 1). However, wholesale prices are about 20% higher than at the same time last year (Fig 2). Gulf Coast propane production has been steady while overall demand for LP is down currently compared to last year (Fig 3), suggesting lower prices may be on the horizon. What does this mean for the commercial poultry grower reaching the end of his contract allotment? Local market dynamics will likely affect prices more than international supply and demand dynamics for the remainder of winter. If the weather forecast suggests a milder end to winter, it may be prudent to end the season on the cash market as needed, expecting local prices to decrease going into spring rather than signing a late-season contract. Then, wait for the summer booking to prepare for winter 2025-26. However, if a grower can contract additional LP booked for close to their previous contract price, it is usually a good risk management decision to do so. It’s up to the grower to decide when that difference warrants taking the risk.
Natural gas users are typically tied to the current cash price for gas as it is delivered at the meter. Local (U.S.) supply and demand are the primary drivers of NG prices for U.S. consumers, which is greatly affected by weather. Although the South Atlantic region has thus far experienced 59 fewer Heating Degree Days than normal, 26 fewer than last year,temperatures are beginning to fall, leading to local NG prices increasing across the region and nationally. Current US-EIA data shows a 4.7% increase in NG prices for the southern region, with the Henry Hub wholesale price (southeastern source for NG) rising $0.37/MMBtu the week of January 13, 2025 (Fig 4). All of this seems to indicate a rising price for commercial natural gas users for the remainder of this winter season.
As always, it’s never too late to tighten up the leaks and shore up the insulation in the poultry houses. A little savings can go a long way in an increasing fuel price market.
Fig. 1 – Gulf Coast region LP supply is near the high 5-year average (U.S EIA).
Fig. 2 – Wholesale LP prices are approximately 20% higher than this time last year.
Fig. 3 – LP demand is down slightly compared to last year, suggesting lower prices may be on the horizon.
Fig 4. – NG prices at the Henry Hub (southeastern source) are trending higher at the end of the season, mainly due to decreasing temperatures in the region.
Shell egg prices have proven highly variable in the last few years. Consumer demand for eggs can be equally erratic but predictably increases around Easter in the spring and then again around the fall/winter holidays. Prices typically go up in response to this higher demand. Beginning in early summer, 2024 prices rose above and remained higher than in 2023. They spiked again in August due to lower supply caused by laying hen losses earlier in the year from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Prices then dropped as flocks were repopulated and late summer demand fell. Now, leading up to the fall holiday season, we see egg prices spiking again, and they are higher than they were not only in 2023 but also higher than the same time in 2022. Later in 2022 wholesale egg prices reached an all-time high approaching $5.00/doz. (fig 1). When we compare 2022 to 2024, we see a haunting premonition of where egg prices could be headed this holiday season. The current price spike looks to be holiday demand coming in the face of a decrease in layers producing the eggs; the same thing we saw in 2022.
When we compare current 2024 numbers to the same timeframe in 2022 and 2023, there are a few comparable trends worth noting. Current shell egg inventory and layer numbers have dropped 13.7% and 3% respectively from the previous year, while price is significantly higher (over 300%). The current price is also 22% higher than the same time in 2022 when the egg and layer inventories were very similar to now (fig 2). It’s possible we could see the same prices on the horizon as we saw in late 2022.
While the supply and demand numbers may not bode well for egg consumers, layer producers have additional concerns. December corn is currently trading in the $4.28/bu. range and looks to stay below $4.60 through spring according to the USDA futures price estimates. This looks to be a positive for egg producers as the resulting lower feed cost could help egg producers recover from their losses as well as last year’s low egg prices – IF they have the hens to produce the eggs. The concern is that the HPAI threat still looms large over the layer industry. HPAI losses are driving the current low inventories of layers and eggs. In October of this year, 2.84 million layers were lost to HPAI to begin the holiday season. Year-to-date, the layer industry has lost 20.75 million layers, which equals 6.8% of the total current flock of producing hens. It is difficult for layer producers to keep up with current demand in the face of such losses. And now, the fall waterfowl migration is ramping up, bringing with it an increased HPAI risk. According to the USDA, there are currently only 4.1 days of shell eggs on hand for sale. Therefore, any additional hen losses could have a significant impact on the market. Whether 2024 prices will reach the highs of 2022 remains to be seen, but if HPAI continues to devastate producing layer flocks, prices this year could reach and even surpass 2022.
Figure 1: Egg prices were relatively stable, though above last year, until mid-summer, when they spiked due to laying hen losses that occurred earlier in the year. Prices spiked again this fall due to a convergence of additional hen losses to HPAI and an increasing demand for the holidays.
Figure 2: Laying hen inventory and egg inventory for 2024 looks hauntingly like 2022, when late season egg prices rose to historical levels
The Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems rule proposal is the latest effort by the Agricultural Marketing Service to address perceived inequities within the typical commercial broiler grower’s contract arrangements with poultry companies like Tyson, Pilgrims, and others. This is in addition to the recently passed Transparency in Poultry Grower Contracting and Tournaments rule, which became active on February 12, 2024. The proposed new rule would also modify the Packers and Stockyard Act. If implemented, the new rule would affect poultry growers in two substantial ways: 1. It would change the primary way most contract broiler growers are paid by modifying or replacing the traditional “tournament pay ranking system” (only applies to companies using such a ranking system) and 2. it would establish documentation requirements for any additional capital improvements recommended or required by the company. The comment period for this rule closed on August 9, 2024. The final results of this proposed rule may be impacted by the recent SCOTUS decision in Loper Bright on federal agencies’ rulemaking power to implement such rulings.
The traditional tournament pay system allows for the grower’s pay per pound to be adjusted up or down, or “ranked”, from a stated base pay rate according to the cost of growing the company’s birds on individual contract farms. Broiler growers are typically subject to “pluses and minuses” above or below a stated base pay per pound. (see fig 1) This ranked pay system has been in place for most contract growers in some form for several decades. The most often noted concern is that it can cause growers to receive a lower pay rate based on factors not fully in their control. Many companies recognize this potential and have contingency plans that offer growers relief from such situations, though not all agree on how those are handled or when they are appropriate. From a practical perspective, sometimes the exact cause of a high-cost flock of chickens is difficult to identify. Even so, growers often feel they are at the mercy of a system not designed with their best interests in mind. The proposed rule would attempt to remedy this situation by requiring all contracted growers to receive a minimum pay rate for every flock, regardless of a flock’s cost to the company. The rule does not specify whether this pay must be per pound, per square foot of growing space, or any other specific method. It does specify that any pay system must be a “fair comparison among growers.” The rule would allow positive pay incentives to be utilized, but only if all stipulations for receiving incentives meet the “fair comparison among growers” standard and are clearly documented.
Simply put, under the new rule, there could be competition for extra pay, but everyone gets the minimum pay first. Any grower who experiences a non-competitive situation out of their control would be required to be paid outside of any competition. It is suggested that a multiple flock average payment be employed in such cases. (Many poultry companies use a multi-flock average in such situations now.) The rule also stipulates that the minimum pay cannot be set arbitrarily low but must be sufficient to cover the average costs of growing birds in an area.
Whether or not a new pay system would increase the cost of growing birds for a company would depend on the system and rates chosen. However, if there is a minimum pay guarantee, it is plausible that minimum standards for raising the birds will be increased. It is also plausible that the highest pay rates a grower could earn might be decreased to cover company live-cost increases from a new system of pay.
The second part of the rule concerns capital assets on the farm. Often, companies recommend or require growers to make significant capital investments in equipment upgrades or structural improvements. Sometimes, these are simply “good maintenance” related, but often, they concern efficiency or cost-saving improvements that benefit the company as much as the grower. They could be the result of customer’s demands or animal welfare guidelines. Under the new rule, companies that recommend or require additional capital improvements of $12,000 or more must provide documentation to the grower of why such expenditures are to be made, expected costs, potential benefits to the grower or the birds, the research or data that supports it, and what the grower should expect for financial return, if any. The rule does not eliminate the potential of a grower suffering a negative impact if a specific required capital improvement is not implemented. Nor does it require that all capital expenditures be financially beneficial to growers. It simply requires the documentation above with some financial explanation for any additional capital improvement coming from the company.
In addressing the overall purpose of this proposed rule, the following statement was made in summary by the AMS:
“The benefits that will accrue to growers from the proposed changes will result from increased clarity as growers will be informed of minimum compensation outcomes that can occur under the broiler grower arrangement. There is no expectation that aggregate payments to growers will increase.”
Fig. 1: In a traditional tournament pay system, there could be a range of +/- 10% or more from base pay per pound delivered. A grower’s pay could vary anywhere in this range based on their flock’s cost. This doesn’t sound like much variation, but when multiplied over the total pounds of a modern farm, the resulting gross revenue differential is substantial. In the examples below, if base pay is $0.070 / lb., top pay is $0.077 and bottom pay is $0.063 per pound under a traditional tournament system, the resulting pay variation a grower might experience flock to flock could be $8,650, or $50,178 total annually. Under the proposed rule, the base pay would now be the minimum per pound guaranteed to the grower. It is plausible that the resulting top pay might be lowered to +5% to help the company cover the potential increase in live-cost, resulting in lower potential top pay for growers. However, the potential variation might decrease to $14,337 annually under a “new” system, lessening the income risk of the grower by 60%.
