Author: Dennis Brothers

There have been over 20 million commercial table/shell egg laying hens lost already in 2025 alone due to High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Losses have impacted egg supply and prices have spiked. At the time of this writing, nationally, large white shell eggs are over $8.00 per dozen. Discussions over HPAI vaccination have been going on at some level from the beginning of this outbreak in 2022, but just recently a conditional approval has been given for a vaccine to be used here in the U.S. While vaccination holds some promise, it has its own set of problems and costs that must be balanced with the potential gains from controlling the virus. 

As a stopgap measure to boost egg supplies, it has been suggested that surplus eggs from broiler hatcheries could be transferred into the egg products market, replacing shell eggs that could then be sold as fresh, helping lower prices. Eggs that go into egg products are used for things like dressings, sauces, etc. or for powered egg products like cake mixes. These products are pasteurized and considered some of the safest egg products available for human consumption. The surplus broiler eggs come from the occasional over-supply of hatching eggs not being able to be set to hatch. They are currently used for animal feed products or often simply disposed of. At one time, they were allowed to enter the edible egg products market. Using surplus broiler eggs stopped in 2009 when a law specifically targeting normal table egg handling and storage was passed requiring ALL eggs, whether sold fresh or used for egg products, be handled in such a way that precludes the surplus broiler eggs from the process. Now, some are asking the law be rescinded or modified to allow broiler eggs to again be used to help relieve the current egg shortage. 

To analyze this question, we must look at a few big numbers. First, it is estimated by the National Chicken Council that there would be an annual surplus of “…almost 400 million broiler eggs (going) into the egg breaking supply each year…”  That is a lot of eggs, but would it affect the price of table eggs? According to the USDA-Economic Research Service, total table egg production for 2024 was 7,751 million dozen, or over 93 billion eggs. If we assume an even distribution, that’s 7.75 billion eggs being produced per month! If we evenly distribute the surplus broiler egg supply, it could provide an additional 33.6 million eggs per month, or about 0.4% of the monthly total – an amount not likely to make any appreciable difference in the current prices. Still, there is no reason not to add these eggs into the market, but there should be no expectation of any significant price impact for doing so. It would however benefit the broiler companies as a market outlet for eggs that are often a loss. And if a few more eggs hit the store shelves, that’s not a bad thing.

Fig. 1 – Egg prices declined and stayed close to the recent annual average of around $2.00/dz for a couple of months after the most recent spike in January 2023. The current spike far outweighed that spike and will likely not abate for some time.

In a recent Southern Ag Today article, Anderson and Maples addressed increasing slaughter weights in beef cattle while also mentioning slaughter weights are increasing in swine and poultry. In this article, we will address poultry weights, specifically broilers.

Broiler slaughter weight has been increasing, however, the reasons for the increase are different than was outlined in the referenced beef article.  The trend is a long-term situation rather than a short- or intermediate-term phenomenon. Broiler weights have been on a steady increase since the 1920s. The primary driver of these increases is market-derived; it is a slow change based on U.S. poultry consumers’ desire combined with the changing genetic potential of the birds. Unlike the beef industry, where the producers, feeders, and packers are usually separate entities, the poultry companies producing chicken own the chickens and control their genetics and production from the egg to chicken sandwich. 

Most chickens in the U.S. are produced to meet specific market demands, and this requires varying sizes of birds. Grocery store chill-packaged products like split breasts or boneless breasts usually come from birds in the 6– 7-pound range. Fast food chicken restaurants like Popeyes or KFC typically require smaller birds to fill their “pieces” menu. These birds are usually 3.5-to-4-pound slaughter weight. The same companies sell chicken sandwiches that require filets from larger birds of upwards to 9-pound slaughter weight. Frozen processed chicken fingers and sandwich filets at the grocery store are best produced from larger birds as well. As consumers have demanded more chicken sandwiches, chicken fingers, breast filets, etc., and fewer whole birds or cut-up pieces, poultry companies have moved their genetic target toward producing birds that more efficiently meet these demands per square foot of grow-out space. Simply put, you can get more chicken fingers per square foot of grow-out space from a bigger chicken. This demand has pushed companies to produce more of the larger birds and increase the size of the larger birds (Fig 1). Since companies own the chickens and control the genetics and production, they can make these changes in response to consumer trends quickly and sustain those changes over time. From 1955 to 2021, the combined average of all broiler sizes in the U.S. increased from 3 pounds to approximately 6.5 pounds, or 116%, in response to U.S. consumer demands. But that’s not the whole story. Along with increasing weights, the poultry industry has decreased the amount of feed needed by 38 percent, from 3.0 pounds to 1.85 pounds of feed per pound of gain. The time it takes to achieve average market weight has decreased by about 20 days. Overall mortality has also decreased, though recently a change in production methods has caused a slight uptick in mortality (Fig 2). All these changes have been achieved by foundational efforts in genetics, nutritional advances, and grow-out environment/housing improvements. Overall, this represents a case study in sustainability – producing more output with fewer inputs. In commercial poultry’s case, that means more chicken for less feed, over less time, with less environmental impact.  

Fig 1. Broiler weights (bird size) have increased a remarkable amount from the 1950’s to the modern bird of today. These changes have been the result of focused genetics, improved nutrition and bird environment.

Fig. 2: From 1955 to modern day, average broiler weights have increased by 116 percent. At the same time, feed conversion has improved by 38 percent. Days of age to slaughter have also decreased by 27 percent, and mortality by 21 percent.

Brothers, Dennis. “Increasing Size in Broilers – A Long-Term Trend.” Southern Ag Today 5(7.2). February 11, 2025. Permalink

Shell egg prices have proven highly variable in the last few years. Consumer demand for eggs can be equally erratic but predictably increases around Easter in the spring and then again around the fall/winter holidays. Prices typically go up in response to this higher demand. Beginning in early summer, 2024 prices rose above and remained higher than in 2023.  They spiked again in August due to lower supply caused by laying hen losses earlier in the year from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Prices then dropped as flocks were repopulated and late summer demand fell. Now, leading up to the fall holiday season, we see egg prices spiking again, and they are higher than they were not only in 2023 but also higher than the same time in 2022. Later in 2022 wholesale egg prices reached an all-time high approaching $5.00/doz. (fig 1). When we compare 2022 to 2024, we see a haunting premonition of where egg prices could be headed this holiday season. The current price spike looks to be holiday demand coming in the face of a decrease in layers producing the eggs; the same thing we saw in 2022.

When we compare current 2024 numbers to the same timeframe in 2022 and 2023, there are a few comparable trends worth noting. Current shell egg inventory and layer numbers have dropped 13.7% and 3% respectively from the previous year, while price is significantly higher (over 300%). The current price is also 22% higher than the same time in 2022 when the egg and layer inventories were very similar to now (fig 2).  It’s possible we could see the same prices on the horizon as we saw in late 2022.

While the supply and demand numbers may not bode well for egg consumers, layer producers have additional concerns.   December corn is currently trading in the $4.28/bu. range and looks to stay below $4.60 through spring according to the USDA futures price estimates. This looks to be a positive for egg producers as the resulting lower feed cost could help egg producers recover from their losses as well as last year’s low egg prices – IF they have the hens to produce the eggs. The concern is that the HPAI threat still looms large over the layer industry. HPAI losses are driving the current low inventories of layers and eggs. In October of this year, 2.84 million layers were lost to HPAI to begin the holiday season. Year-to-date, the layer industry has lost 20.75 million layers, which equals 6.8% of the total current flock of producing hens. It is difficult for layer producers to keep up with current demand in the face of such losses. And now, the fall waterfowl migration is ramping up, bringing with it an increased HPAI risk. According to the USDA, there are currently only 4.1 days of shell eggs on hand for sale. Therefore, any additional hen losses could have a significant impact on the market. Whether 2024 prices will reach the highs of 2022 remains to be seen, but if HPAI continues to devastate producing layer flocks, prices this year could reach and even surpass 2022.

Figure 1: Egg prices were relatively stable, though above last year, until mid-summer, when they spiked due to laying hen losses that occurred earlier in the year. Prices spiked again this fall due to a convergence of additional hen losses to HPAI and an increasing demand for the holidays.

Figure 2: Laying hen inventory and egg inventory for 2024 looks hauntingly like 2022, when late season egg prices rose to historical levels