Author: Dennis Brothers

In a recent Southern Ag Today article, Anderson and Maples addressed increasing slaughter weights in beef cattle while also mentioning slaughter weights are increasing in swine and poultry. In this article, we will address poultry weights, specifically broilers.

Broiler slaughter weight has been increasing, however, the reasons for the increase are different than was outlined in the referenced beef article.  The trend is a long-term situation rather than a short- or intermediate-term phenomenon. Broiler weights have been on a steady increase since the 1920s. The primary driver of these increases is market-derived; it is a slow change based on U.S. poultry consumers’ desire combined with the changing genetic potential of the birds. Unlike the beef industry, where the producers, feeders, and packers are usually separate entities, the poultry companies producing chicken own the chickens and control their genetics and production from the egg to chicken sandwich. 

Most chickens in the U.S. are produced to meet specific market demands, and this requires varying sizes of birds. Grocery store chill-packaged products like split breasts or boneless breasts usually come from birds in the 6– 7-pound range. Fast food chicken restaurants like Popeyes or KFC typically require smaller birds to fill their “pieces” menu. These birds are usually 3.5-to-4-pound slaughter weight. The same companies sell chicken sandwiches that require filets from larger birds of upwards to 9-pound slaughter weight. Frozen processed chicken fingers and sandwich filets at the grocery store are best produced from larger birds as well. As consumers have demanded more chicken sandwiches, chicken fingers, breast filets, etc., and fewer whole birds or cut-up pieces, poultry companies have moved their genetic target toward producing birds that more efficiently meet these demands per square foot of grow-out space. Simply put, you can get more chicken fingers per square foot of grow-out space from a bigger chicken. This demand has pushed companies to produce more of the larger birds and increase the size of the larger birds (Fig 1). Since companies own the chickens and control the genetics and production, they can make these changes in response to consumer trends quickly and sustain those changes over time. From 1955 to 2021, the combined average of all broiler sizes in the U.S. increased from 3 pounds to approximately 6.5 pounds, or 116%, in response to U.S. consumer demands. But that’s not the whole story. Along with increasing weights, the poultry industry has decreased the amount of feed needed by 38 percent, from 3.0 pounds to 1.85 pounds of feed per pound of gain. The time it takes to achieve average market weight has decreased by about 20 days. Overall mortality has also decreased, though recently a change in production methods has caused a slight uptick in mortality (Fig 2). All these changes have been achieved by foundational efforts in genetics, nutritional advances, and grow-out environment/housing improvements. Overall, this represents a case study in sustainability – producing more output with fewer inputs. In commercial poultry’s case, that means more chicken for less feed, over less time, with less environmental impact.  

Fig 1. Broiler weights (bird size) have increased a remarkable amount from the 1950’s to the modern bird of today. These changes have been the result of focused genetics, improved nutrition and bird environment.

Fig. 2: From 1955 to modern day, average broiler weights have increased by 116 percent. At the same time, feed conversion has improved by 38 percent. Days of age to slaughter have also decreased by 27 percent, and mortality by 21 percent.

Brothers, Dennis. “Increasing Size in Broilers – A Long-Term Trend.” Southern Ag Today 5(7.2). February 11, 2025. Permalink

Shell egg prices have proven highly variable in the last few years. Consumer demand for eggs can be equally erratic but predictably increases around Easter in the spring and then again around the fall/winter holidays. Prices typically go up in response to this higher demand. Beginning in early summer, 2024 prices rose above and remained higher than in 2023.  They spiked again in August due to lower supply caused by laying hen losses earlier in the year from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Prices then dropped as flocks were repopulated and late summer demand fell. Now, leading up to the fall holiday season, we see egg prices spiking again, and they are higher than they were not only in 2023 but also higher than the same time in 2022. Later in 2022 wholesale egg prices reached an all-time high approaching $5.00/doz. (fig 1). When we compare 2022 to 2024, we see a haunting premonition of where egg prices could be headed this holiday season. The current price spike looks to be holiday demand coming in the face of a decrease in layers producing the eggs; the same thing we saw in 2022.

When we compare current 2024 numbers to the same timeframe in 2022 and 2023, there are a few comparable trends worth noting. Current shell egg inventory and layer numbers have dropped 13.7% and 3% respectively from the previous year, while price is significantly higher (over 300%). The current price is also 22% higher than the same time in 2022 when the egg and layer inventories were very similar to now (fig 2).  It’s possible we could see the same prices on the horizon as we saw in late 2022.

While the supply and demand numbers may not bode well for egg consumers, layer producers have additional concerns.   December corn is currently trading in the $4.28/bu. range and looks to stay below $4.60 through spring according to the USDA futures price estimates. This looks to be a positive for egg producers as the resulting lower feed cost could help egg producers recover from their losses as well as last year’s low egg prices – IF they have the hens to produce the eggs. The concern is that the HPAI threat still looms large over the layer industry. HPAI losses are driving the current low inventories of layers and eggs. In October of this year, 2.84 million layers were lost to HPAI to begin the holiday season. Year-to-date, the layer industry has lost 20.75 million layers, which equals 6.8% of the total current flock of producing hens. It is difficult for layer producers to keep up with current demand in the face of such losses. And now, the fall waterfowl migration is ramping up, bringing with it an increased HPAI risk. According to the USDA, there are currently only 4.1 days of shell eggs on hand for sale. Therefore, any additional hen losses could have a significant impact on the market. Whether 2024 prices will reach the highs of 2022 remains to be seen, but if HPAI continues to devastate producing layer flocks, prices this year could reach and even surpass 2022.

Figure 1: Egg prices were relatively stable, though above last year, until mid-summer, when they spiked due to laying hen losses that occurred earlier in the year. Prices spiked again this fall due to a convergence of additional hen losses to HPAI and an increasing demand for the holidays.

Figure 2: Laying hen inventory and egg inventory for 2024 looks hauntingly like 2022, when late season egg prices rose to historical levels

In 2023, food scientists from Auburn University’s Poultry Science Department conducted a survey to ascertain the perception of poultry processing, specifically stunning processes, among American chicken consumers (“Consumer Perception Survey of Animal Welfare in Broiler Stunning.”, Linda Barahona; Sungeun Cho, Ph.D.) The full survey data are currently being evaluated, but some preliminary findings are especially intriguing on the economic front. 

The following two survey questions were of specific economic interest: A. “Humanely processed (chicken) are animal derived products from animals that have been treated ethically. Are you willing to pay more for humanely processed(chicken)?” – to which respondents could answer Yes, No or Maybe. The next question related to the previous by asking: B. “If the answer to the previous question was ‘Yes’ or ‘Maybe’, how much more are you willing to pay?” Respondents had six choices for B: Less than 10%, 10-50%, 51-100%, 101-200%, 201-300% and Greater than 300%.

Of the 986 respondents, 699 of them (71%) answered Yes (358) or Maybe (341). Of those 699 Yes/Maybe’s, almost 85% were in the first two categories and willing to pay at least 10% more, with half of those willing to go up to 50% more in price for humanely processed chicken. To put the choice ranges in perspective, at the time of this writing, the average regular pack of boneless/skinless breast in the Southeast U.S. was $3.21 (USDA National Retail Report – Chicken, May 17, 2024.) Using the upper end of the ranges above, the respective increased prices someone might be willing to pay chicken would be: $3.50 (<10%), $4.81 (10-50%), $6.42 (51-100%), $9.63 (101-200%), $12.84 (201-300%), or $14.45 (>300%, estimated at 350% increase). Applying these prices to the results would suggest only 15% of those willing to pay more would accept more than an additional $1.60 ($4.81 compared to $3.21) per package of humanely processedchicken breasts. 

While this survey seems to suggest that consumers are indeed willing to pay for chicken that was processed in a perceived more humane fashion, several questions remain. The above prices in dollars were not shared in the survey, those are extrapolations of this author. Further work is planned to evaluate consumer choices with products visually before them with the dollar prices clearly marked, and with one package clearly labeled and understood as “Humanely Processed”. Would the breaking point remain at 50% price increase, or would consumers make different choices with more information? Some of the current survey data suggests increased knowledge of poultry production in general leads to willingness to pay more. Would a clearer understanding of a specific “humane process” in question also impact willingness to pay? All of these are questions being considered for further expanded study.

The results of this work will be important for poultry companies as they consider implementing processes that might be considered more humane, like controlled atmospheric stunning, but can be costly to implement and have increased management requirements. If consumers are willing to pay enough, it might be possible for poultry companies to work with their wholesale and retail customers, like grocery and fast-food businesses, to pass the increased cost of production directly to end consumers. 

Brothers, Dennis. “Building Equity.” Southern Ag Today 4(23.2). June 4, 2024. Permalink