Southern Ag Today

Author: Eunchun Park

  • What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around

    What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around

    When there isn’t a government shutdown that limits reporting activities, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a once-a-month shock that does more than nudge the average price. On release days, the intraday volatility pattern—its level across the session, its midday spike, and how quickly that spike fades—differs from ordinary days in ways that traders, merchandisers, and risk managers can plan around. A recent research article evaluated the impact of the WASDE report on commodity futures markets’ volatility (Lee and Park, 2024). Here we translate this research into practical guidance for traders when a WASDE report is released. 

    Most trading plans benchmark a point estimate—an expected move or a single daily volatility number. But markets trade through time. On WASDE days, volatility is comparatively calm into late morning, jumps right after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time (CT) release, and then eases within about an hour. Treating the day like any other misses the timing and the intraday pattern that drives fills, slippage, and margin exposure.

    We study corn and soybean futures from January 2013 through April 2023, focusing on regular trading hours (8:30 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. CT) and explicitly comparing three kinds of sessions: the release day itself, the day before, and the day after. Instead of averaging volatility across the whole day, we recover the intraday volatility curve—how volatility evolves minute by minute. We then ask two questions. First, what does volatility look like on WASDE days relative to other days? Second, is volatility the same across the before/after/release-day split? 

    On release days, volatility is subdued at the open, eases into mid-morning, and then spikes right after 11:00 a.m. CT (see Figure 1 and 2). Figure 1 shows the day before and the day after with a simple fade from the open without the midday surge seen on WASDE release days. The spike is visible in both corn and soybeans and typically fades within about an hour, as shown on Figure 2. Formally, release-day intraday volatility differs from the adjacent days, while the before and after pair are statistically indistinguishable. Another practical detail emerges at the open: on release days, when the market’s early-session volatility often starts lower than on non-release days, consistent with traders holding back risk until the report is released. The result is a day that is quieter than usual in the morning, busier than usual just after 11:00 a.m. CT, and fairly normal again by early afternoon.

    There are a few key takeaways from this research. One could use smaller orders just before the 11:00 a.m. CT release, then wait 5–15 minutes afterward to see where prices settle before adjusting. If buying, selling, or hedging, skip those first few minutes after 11:00—quotes and spreads are still resetting, and a short wait often saves money. For risk planning, don’t treat the whole day as high-volatility; expect a short, sharp bump around 11:00 that usually fades within about an hour.

    While these patterns describe typical release days across a long sample, individual months will differ with the surprise content of the report and with concurrent macro news. The point is not that every WASDE day looks the same, but that the intraday volatility pattern on those days is predictably different enough to plan around. Remember that all trading comes with risks and the guidance in this article is for educational purposes only and is not a guarantee of outcomes.

    Figure 1. Intraday volatility up to 11:00 a.m. (Central Time) WASDE release 

    Figure 2. Intraday volatility on WASDE release days (corn and soybeans)

    Minute-by-minute volatility with a 95% confidence band (gray). The vertical dashed line marks the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release. Both markets are relatively quiet into late morning, show a sharp 5–15-minute spike right after 11:00, and then settle toward baseline within about an hour; the exact height of the spike varies by month.

    References

    • Andersen, T. G., Su, T., Todorov, V., and Zhang, Z. (2024). Intraday periodic volatility curves. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(546):1181–1191.
    • Lee, K. and Park, E. (2024). Exploring calendar effects: the impact of WASDE releases on grain futures market volatility. Applied Economics Letters, 1–6.

    Park, Eunchun. “What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.3). November 12, 2025. Permalink

  • Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilot Program and Crop Insurance Indemnities

    Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilot Program and Crop Insurance Indemnities

    Introduction

    Wildlife damage to crops has become a growing concern for U.S. agriculture. Crop insurance records show that payments for wildlife-related losses increased from about $15 million in 2012 to nearly $39 million in 2022. Among the different threats, feral swine stand out as one of the most destructive, causing an estimated $800 million in damages each year to crops, livestock, property, and even natural resources such as water quality and wildlife habitat.

    Feral swine have spread quickly—moving from fewer than 20 states in the early 1980s to more than 30 states today. Because animals often cross property lines, private control efforts, such as hunting and trapping, have been costly and only partly effective. This has created demand for coordinated public programs that can reduce hog populations and restore damaged farmland.

    In response, the 2018 Farm Bill created the Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilot Program (FSCP) with $75 million in funding to remove feral hogs and restore land. The program began in 2020 in 20 selected counties across 11 southern states and expanded in 2021. These counties were selected based on feral swine presence and notable increases in damages (Figure 1). This article summarizes findings from our recent study (Duncan et al., 2025) that evaluated the impact of the FSCP on crop insurance damages.

    Findings

    Our analysis of USDA Risk Management Agency data from 2013 to 2022 indicates that the FSCP has had an impact, but the benefits are not spread evenly across all crops. The clearest effect was seen in corn. Counties participating in FSCP showed fewer corn acres receiving wildlife-related insurance payments than similar counties without the program. This pattern is consistent with what producers in the field have reported—that corn losses to feral hogs were noticeably lower in areas where FSCP activities were underway.

    For other crops, the story is more mixed. For soybeans, wheat, and peanuts, however, the data looked much the same—whether or not counties participated in FSCP. Cotton did show some reduction in losses in certain years, but the effect was smaller and less consistent than what we observed for corn. These results suggest that while FSCP is helping to address hog damage, especially for corn, it may take more time and continued investment before its benefits can be clearly seen for other crops.

    Implications

    The finding that corn producers benefited the most from FSCP is not surprising. Corn is one of the crops most heavily targeted by feral hogs, and the program’s design, focused on removal and land restoration, appears to be reducing this pressure. For producers, this means that FSCP can serve as a valuable complement to private control efforts that have often proven costly and only partly effective. The lack of clear effects for other crops should not be taken to mean that the program has no value beyond corn. Rather, it may reflect the fact that FSCP is still in its early stages. The program roll out coincided with COVID-19 disruptions which potentially slowed participation and adoption. It is possible that as the program continues and expands, measurable benefits for soybeans, peanuts, and wheat could become more apparent. Also, we should note that a limitation of this study is that only crop damages that were severe enough to trigger crop insurance payments were included. The crop insurance data does not determine the species causing crop damage. We exclude damages that were not severe enough to trigger a crop insurance payment, as well as benefits to livestock health, property, and the environment.

    For policymakers, these results suggest that targeting resources towards corn-producing regions could deliver the greatest near-term return on investment. Continued funding and expansion could strengthen these results and help ensure that the success of the corn program translates more widely throughout US agriculture in the coming years.

    Figure 1. Wildlife-related indemnified crop acres by crop, 2013–2022. Soybeans and corn account for the majority of reported losses.

    Duncan, H., Boyer, C. N., Park, E., & Smith, S. A. (2025). “Evaluating Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilot Program Impact on Crop Indemnities.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.70016

    Park, Eunchun, Hence Duncan, Christopher Boyer, and Aaron Smith. “Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilot Program and Crop Insurance Indemnities.” Southern Ag Today 5(41.4). October 9, 2025. Permalink