Author: Francisco Abello

Wheat and other small grain grazing is an important source of demand for calves every Fall.   Fewer cattle will likely be grazing on small grain pastures this Winter due to poor plant establishment caused by drought. The January 2022 USDA-NASS Cattle report indicated 1 percent fewer cattle grazing on small grain pastures in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas last winter. Many producers from the Southern Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) have already early weaned and sold their calves due to the drought. Lower winter wheat forage production this year will reduce cattle demand from other Southern states.

Planted acres of winter wheat are expected to increase in the Southern States from last year. However, early planting conditions challenge future grazing forage production for ranchers in this area. Winter wheat planting conditions have been severely affected after three consecutive ENSO Niña periods. About 95 percent of the winter wheat area in the Southern Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) is still under drought (Figure 1), compared to an estimated 33 percent at the beginning of last season.

Figure 1. Winter Wheat under Drought Conditions

The planting rate in the Southern Plains States is 4.2 percent lower than the average over the last five years (Figure 2). However, the crop emergence rate is even lower than the planting rate. Kansas winter wheat has the lowest emergence rate of 40 percent (34.4 percent lower than the five-year average). Oklahoma’s emergence rate is 11.5 percent lower than average, while Texas’s is only down 4.2 percent. 

Figure 2. Winter Wheat Planted Acres and Wheat Emergence Rates

Compared to last year, some stockers were grazed in deferred summer grasses, with higher costs and at the expense of a reduced spring forage supply for their cow-calf operation. Range and pasture conditions have severely decreased compared to last year (Figure 3). In Kansas, 79 percent of Range and Pasture Condition was categorized as very poor and poor. In Oklahoma and Texas, range and pasture conditions are 58 and 30 points higher for similar categories. This alternative will not be available this year, where all forage left will likely be reserved for cows.

Figure 3. Range and Pasture Conditions

Producers will face many challenges putting weight on stockers if poor winter wheat conditions do not improve during the season. As the drought continues, the higher the risk of seeing more calves being sold underweight and earlier in the market.  It will likely mean less of a seasonal decline in heavy feeder prices in the March-May period.

Pancho Abello

Assistant Professor and Extension Specialist-Management

pancho.abello@ag.tamu.edu 

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Abello, Pancho. “Small Grain Pastures“. Southern Ag Today 2(45.2). November 1, 2022. Permalink

This summer’s drought is affecting a large part of the western half of the South, producing unfortunate losses for many ranchers and farmers in our area. The most affected States are Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee within the Southern Region. The last U.S. Drought Monitor reported that 92% of this area is abnormally dry, and about 64% is in severe drought.

U.S. Drought Monitor – South Region. July 26, 2022.

Unfortunately, droughts always have a negative financial and economic effect on our business. The USDA’s Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance (PRF) has shown to be an essential tool to support ranchers during these times. PRF showed a positive net benefit, indemnities over premiums, in many cases. Still, most importantly, it generated significant payments in drought years when needed most.

USDA created the Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance program in 2007 as a tool for livestock and forage producers to reduce the risk of forage loss associated with lower precipitation. The program is available in 48 states and policies covered over 247 million acres in 2022. In southern states, the adoption of this program has nearly doubled since 2007. During the program’s first year, the total enrolled acres in this area was 20.8 million. Producers from these states have insured about 41 million acres for 2022.

Ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma have adopted the PRF insurance most quickly within the Southern region and are better prepared when compared to the 2011 drought. The percentage of enrolled acres of total ​​pasture and rangeland in Texas and Oklahoma is 36% and 18%, respectively. The rest of the southern states had an adoption rate between 1 and 4% over their total grassland and rangeland. Texas has 71% more acres enrolled in the PRF program than in 2011, while Oklahoma has almost 990% more.

PRF Enrolled Acres as a Percent of Total Grassland Pasture and Rangeland in Selected Southern States.

Comparison of PRF Coverage in 2011 Compared to 2022 for Selected Southern States

Abello, Francisco “Pancho”. “PRF Adoption Rate to Mitigate Drought Impact“. Southern Ag Today 2(32.2). August 2, 2022. Permalink