Author: J. Mark Welch

Since the early 2000’s, global economic growth has been driven by emerging market and developing economies (Figure 1). Since 2000, the average annual increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from this group of nations has been five percent, compared to just under two percent for advanced economies.  The “altered economic landscape” of the 21^st century that drove this growth includes technical change (the internet, and access to it), lower transportation and communication costs, reductions in tariff rates and other barriers to trade, in general, lower costs of international trade.  This transformation reduced poverty and improved living standards across much of the globe (Krueger, 2006).  

Figure 1. Global Economic Growth, Annual Percentage Change, GDP, 1980-2022, 2023-2027 projected

Average incomes in the largest economies within the category of ‘Emerging market and developing economies’—Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, a group that accounts for half of the world’s population—started to rise rapidly in 2003 (Figure 2) (IMF, 2022).  Measured in current $US, the average income in these ten countries (weighted by population) from 1980 to 2002 increased from $433 to $1,232, about $35 per year.  Incomes grew from $1,356 in 2003 to $6,319 in 2020, about $275 per year.  

Figure 2. Emerging Economies Gross National Income Per Capita and World Per Capita Grain Use

This economic activity has had a direct impact on grain markets. While world grain consumption (barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum, and wheat) increased steadily from 1980 to 2002, per capita grain consumption was flat to trending lower from 1980 to 2002.  Beginning in the 2003/2004 marketing year, per capita consumption began to increase along with incomes in emerging economies, from 312 kg per person to 364 kg per person in 2021/22, an increase of 17 percent. As incomes grew in emerging economies, so did the demand for grain—for food, feed, and fuel—in the subsequent marketing years. For comparison, per capita grain use in the rest of the world (all countries other than emerging economies) increased seven percent from 2003/04 to 2021/22. Measuring consumption on a per capita basis accounts for overall population growth experienced in these emerging economies over this time span. 

Since 2003, there have been five marketing years in which a decline in production has been associated with a drop in per capita use: 2006/2007, 2012/2013, 2015/2016, 2017/2018, and projections for the new marketing year, 2022/2023 (Table 1).  In 2012/13 and 2015/16, the setback in grain use was short lived, in that after a one-year decrease, consumption increased to a new, higher level in the year following.  That increase in use coincided with increased production and a continued rise in average incomes.   

Table 1. World Grain Production* and Per Capita Grain Use

Marketing Year	World Grain Productionmmt	Production Change mmt	Per Capita Grain UseKg/person	Use Change
2003/2004	1,866	43	312	1.97
2004/2005	2,044	178	315	3.43
2005/2006	2,017	(27)	317	2.02
2006/2007	2,005	(12)	316	(0.71)
2007/2008	2,132	127	322	5.46
2008/2009	2,252	120	327	5.48
2009/2010	2,253	1	330	2.78
2010/2011	2,213	(40)	330	0.15
2011/2012	2,344	130	339	9.02
2012/2013	2,296	(48)	329	(10.71)
2013/2014	2,512	217	343	14.41
2014/2015	2,560	48	346	3.25
2015/2016	2,518	(42)	341	(4.80)
2016/2017	2,668	150	358	16.39
2017/2018	2,619	(49)	354	(4.25)
2018/2019	2,632	13	355	1.98
2019/2020	2,680	48	356	0.44
2020/2021	2,724	44	361	5.03
2021/2022	2,794	69	364	3.06
2022/2023p	2,765	(28)	360	(4.32)

Due to mostly geopolitical events, the 2022/2023 marketing year for grains is shaping up as a short crop year.  Inflation, rising interest rates, and lingering pandemic impacts are among the factors limiting economic growth prospects in the near term. Among the factors that will determine whether we extend the recent trend in world per capita grain use are future crop production levels and global economic conditions.  The combination of a short-crop and a slowdown in income growth can impact per capita grain use beyond the current marketing year.  

References:

Krueger, Anne O. “The World Economy at the Start of the 21^st Century”, International Monetary Fund, Annual Gilbert Lecture, Rochester University, New York, April 6, 2006. Accessed May 31, 2022 and available online at https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp040606.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF Datamapper. Accessed May 31, 2022 and available online at https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD.

USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD). Accessed June 8, 2022 and available online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home.

World Bank. DataBank. Accessed June 8, 2022 and available online at https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx.

Welch, J. Mark. “World Per Capita Grain Consumption and Global Economic Growth“. Southern Ag Today 2(25.1). June 13, 2022. Permalink

The war between Russia and Ukraine has upended grain flows from the Black Sea region for months. Since the first days of fighting in late February, Ukraine’s export terminals in the southern part of the country have been closed. This from a nation that provides 10 percent of the world’s wheat exports and 12 percent of global corn exports.  

As fighting continues, the threat to grain supplies extends beyond the export of old crop grain (2021/2022 marketing year) to the production of the 2022 crop.  Russia, with its military control of the region, may still be able to provide wheat to its trading partners. The world wheat trade has other participants that may be able to increase their sales.  

The impact of the conflict on the feed grain market may be harder to compensate for. Ukraine is the fourth largest corn exporter, 23 mmt in 2021/2022, 12 percent of the world total, and there are not many other major export providers of feed grain. After Ukraine, the next largest corn exporter is the EU at 4.9 mmt or 2.5 percent of total exports.  Much uncertainty surrounds Ukrainian agriculture and market participation in the upcoming crop year in terms of productive capacity, foreign market access, and export controls due to domestic food security concerns. What will the implications be for 2022 world feed grain fundamentals—supply and demand—without the contribution of Ukrainian agriculture? 

In this article, feed grain statistics are those reported for world coarse grains by USDA (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains) as well as wheat for feed.  Since 1980, wheat for feed has constituted about 20 percent of total world domestic wheat use (Figure 1).  The contribution of wheat as a feed grain for this analysis will be 20 percent of total wheat production, use, and stocks.

Without Ukraine, feed grain supplies in the 2022/2023 marketing year would decrease by about 60 mmt: 53 mmt for coarse grains and 7 mmt of wheat (USDA, WASDE, 2022). A simple linear regression model of the response in consumption to a supply change in feed grains yields a regression coefficient of +0.34, in that a 60 mmt decrease in supply would have an estimated 20 mmt decrease in use (Figure 2). 

Using those estimates, without Ukraine, the feed grain days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year would fall to a 78-day supply in the 2022/2023 marketing year, down from an 85-day supply for 2021/2022.  This extends the downward trend of the last six years, a time frame in which the marketing year average price of corn, which accounts for over 70 percent of all feed grains, has increased from $3.36 per bushel to a current estimate of $5.80 per bushel. This would be the lowest days of use on hand number since 2013/2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3). The years of tightest stocks to use in feed grains (lowest days on hand) since 1980 was from 2003/2004 to 2012/2013.  

If, instead of a complete loss, the supply of feed grain in the upcoming marketing year from Ukraine were to decline by half, that would reduce world feed grain supplies by 30 mmt and use by about 10 mmt. The resulting days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year would be an 81.6-day supply.  The impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict is having severe and significant impacts on the world grain trade. In the short term, this impact is creating the tightest supply situation for feed grains that we have seen in the last ten years.  The World Food Program’s emergency coordinator in Ukraine expects 20 percent of planted acres will not be harvested this July and that spring planted area will be down by about one third (Reuters, 4/21/2022).  Even if this conflict were to be resolved relatively soon, damaged infrastructure will limit commodity shipments for an extended period of time.  The longer drawn out the conflict, the greater the magnitude of fundamental adjustments that will be required 

Figure 1. World wheat feed use as a percentage of total domestic use, 1980/1981-2021/2022

Figure 2. Response in feed grain use to a change in feed grain production

Table 1. World feed grain production, use, stocks, days on hand, and the corn marketing average farm price

	Beginning stocks, mmt	Production, mmt	Use, mmt	Ending Stocks, mmt	Days on Hand	U.S. Corn MYA $/bu
2016/2017	399	1,566	1,526	438	105	3.36
2017/2018	438	1,514	1,524	428	103	3.36
2018/2019	428	1,545	1,561	406	95	3.61
2019/2020	406	1,570	1,572	396	92	3.56
2020/2021	396	1,592	1,610	379	86	4.53
2021/2022	379	1,657	1,655	386	85	5.80
2022/2023 est	386	1,597	1,634	349	78

Figure 3. World feed grain production, use, and days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year, 1980-2021, and 2022 estimate

Welch, J. Mark. “Outlook for Feed Grain Fundamentals in the 2022/2023 Marketing Year“. Southern Ag Today 2(21.1). May 16, 2022. Permalink

World wheat supplies are tight, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts at risk a significant portion of the world’s wheat supply. World wheat ending stocks in the 2021/22 marketing year are estimated at 278 mmt, the lowest since 2016/17 (263 mmt) (USDA, FAS, PSD, 2022).  In the current marketing year, Russia is expected to account for about 10 percent of global wheat production (75.16 mmt) and 16 percent of global wheat exports (33.00 mmt) (Figure 1). Ukraine’s wheat production is about four percent of the world total (33.00 mmt) and its 19.00 mmt of exports is 10 percent of the world total. 

With its control of the Black Sea, Russia has the ability to continue exporting grain in the midst of this conflict. One impact of economic sanctions may be to change the normal allocation of Russia’s wheat exports. But with strong global demand and Russian wheat priced competitively in global markets, it seems unlikely that total Russian wheat exports will fall substantially.  

Ukraine’s ports have been closed since the first day of fighting and the Ukrainian government has banned some grain exports to ensure domestic food supplies.  The 2022 wheat crop is at risk not only in active conflict zones but more broadly due to shortages of equipment, fuel, fertilizer, and labor. Where harvest is possible,  it is safe to assume infrastructure damage (e.g., storage, roads, rail, ports) will impact the movement of agricultural products from field to international markets.    

What is the worlds’ capacity to make up for the loss of wheat exports from Ukraine, which average about 18 mmt, just below the current marketing year’s 19 mmt? In addition, the global wheat trade has increased 11 mmt over the last five years.  In the short-term, exports have increased significantly from Argentina, Australia, the EU, India, and Brazil (Figure 1).  In the 2021/22 marketing year, Argentina’s exports are up 2 mmt from its most recent five-year average. Australia is projected to export an additional 12 mmt. Exports from the EU are up 5 mmt. India’s wheat exports are up 8 mmt compared to its 5-year average and Brazil’s wheat exports are up 2 mmt.  These combine for an increase of 28 mmt.  

Major wheat exporters whose sales are down in 2021/22, compared to the 5-year average, are the U.S. and Canada. Both had significantly smaller spring wheat crops in 2021.  U.S. wheat exports are down 5 mmt and Canada’s sales down 8 mmt.  A return to normal would add 13 mmt to world wheat exports in 2022/23.  

All wheat acres in the U.S. for 2022 are up about 700,000 from 2021 to 47.4 million (USDA, Prospective Plantings, 2022).  Across the South, wheat acres increased in Alabama (+3%), Arkansas (+5%), Kentucky (+6%), Mississippi (+5%), North Carolina (+16%), Tennessee (+5%), and Virginia (+22%).  Wheat acres were unchanged in Oklahoma and Texas.  Acres were down in Georgia (-5%), Maryland (-12%), and South Carolina (-4%).  

Further complicating the wheat market, drought conditions in the U.S. Southern High Plains look to decrease winter wheat yields and increase unharvested acres in this region. For U.S. and Canadian wheat production to increase and augment exportable supplies, favorable growing conditions are needed for the upcoming spring wheat crop. 

While the loss of Ukraine’s wheat crop in 2022 would have a significant impact on world wheat supplies, high commodity prices are providing incentives for agricultural producers around the world to plant more acres.  However, the loss of Ukraine’s production amplifies the importance of production disruptions in other wheat producing regions, should issues occur. Longer-term production will certainly increase as weather and crop input availability and affordability allow. 

Figure 1. World Wheat Exports, average 2016/17-2020/21 and 2021/22 (million metric tons)

References

USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution, accessed April 12, 2022, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery.

USDA, Prospective Plantings, March 31, 2022

USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, April 9, 2022

Welch, J. Mark. “World Wheat Supplies in Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine“. Southern Ag Today 2(17.1). April 18, 2022. Permalink

For many feed grain producers, 2021 was a profitable year; however, the uncertainty and risk associated with the 2022 corn crop is elevated. Following is a look at how the components of the supply and demand balance sheet might provide price direction as we head into the new crop season.  Importantly, is there a likelihood of an increase in ending stocks that puts downward pressure on prices, or might stocks get tighter and prices go higher? 

USE:  U.S. corn use over the last six years has ranged from a low of 14.0 billion bushels (2019/20) to a high of 14.8 billion bushels (2017/18, 2020/21, 2021/22).  Domestic use over this time frame is little changed, varying in a range from 12.1 to 12.4 billion bushels. 

Looking at the major use categories, growth in the corn for fuel use category seems limited due to uncertainty around the Renewable Fuel Standard and gasoline demand projections.  With rising fuel-efficiency ratings and a growing number of vehicles on the road that do not use gasoline, the Energy Information Administration forecasts motor gasoline demand in the U.S. (the foundation of ethanol demand) to decline over the next several years in its Annual Energy Outlook (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/). 

Impacting the corn for feed category is a decline in grain consuming animal units (GCAU) over the last two years and a decline in energy feed per GCAU over the last five years (https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/). 

Food, seed, and industrial use (other than ethanol) have held steady in a range from 1.415 to 1.453 billion bushels since 2016.

Exports have been the use category with the most variability over the last several years and have therefore had the most impact on ending stocks. U.S. corn exports hit an all-time record high in 2020/21 at 2.753 billion bushels. Corn production from the top four competitors for U.S. corn exports: Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia, is forecasted to be at record high levels in 2021/22, while U.S. exports are projected to be back down to 2.425 billion bushels. High corn prices provide incentives for producers all around the world to increase acres.  At the time of this writing, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to upset grain flows from the Black Sea region, an important component of the global grain trade.  

SUPPLY:  One of the greatest areas of uncertainty for 2022 is the impact of record-high fertilizer prices and crop input availability. How will this impact farm productivity, profitability, and planting decisions? Will farmers opt for crops that are less fertilizer intensive given these high input costs? Will herbicide cost and availability shift planting decisions to crops with a wider range of alternative crop production systems that are less reliant on over-the-top herbicides? The current ratio of soybean to corn prices suggests net farm returns are about equal between these two crops in Midwest crop budgets (farmdoc dailyhttps://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/12/2022-updated-crop-budgets.html).  Late-spring input pricing and input product dealer inventories may keep the acreage question unanswered longer than normal this spring.  

ENDING STOCKS AND PRICE:  If farmers plant about the same number of corn acres in 2022 as 2021 (about 93 million), we once again achieve a trendline yield (about 179 bushels per acre), and projected use holds steady in 2022 as currently projected for 2021, total production would exceed the 14.8 billion bushels of projected use. That would increase ending stocks in 2022 and fundamentally put downward pressure on prices.  

RISK MANAGEMENT:  A primary area of financial risk in 2022 is that producers will have locked in high input costs early in the season only to see prices fall significantly by harvest. This highlights the importance of a two-prong approach to risk management. First, focus on cost management and input use efficiency while maintaining productivity. This is to get the break-even cost as low as possible. Second, have an accurate estimate of break-even cost and a plan and the tools in place to not let profitable price opportunities get away.  

Welch, J. Mark. “2022 Corn Outlook“. Southern Ag Today 2(10.1). February 28, 2022. Permalink

In the last 2-1/2 years, wheat futures prices have doubled, from just over $4.00 per bushel in June 2019 to over $8.50 per bushel this past November. This has occurred in both the hard red winter wheat (Kansas City contract) and soft red winter wheat (Chicago contract) markets.  But over most of this period, hard red winter wheat, which normally trades at a premium to soft red winter wheat, traded at a discount. From January 2006 to December 2018, the average premium for hard red winter wheat to soft red winter wheat was 34 cents. From January 2019 through August 2021, hard red winter wheat traded at an average discount of 53 cents to soft red winter wheat. September 2021 to date, hard red winter wheat is back to an average 16-cent premium to soft red winter wheat.

Figure 1. Wheat futures prices, Kansas City hard red winter and Chicago soft red winter, Tuesday close, cents per bushel

The increase in wheat prices generally is associated with tightening world supplies.  Wheat acres globally have increased over the last several years, but the world average yield has declined. Total wheat production is up only 600 million bushels (about two percent) since the 2019/20 marketing year while world domestic use has grown by 1.6 billion bushels (about six percent). World wheat days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year have declined from a 146-day supply to a current estimate for 2021/22 of 130 days.  A decline in this measure of stocks-to-use has put upward pressure on prices.  

World Wheat	2019/2020	2020/2021	2021/2022
Area Harvested, mil ac	533	546	552
Yield, bu per ac	52.6	52.2	51.9
Production, mil bu	28,006	28,510	28,609
Domestic Use, mil bu	27,218	28,462	28,867
Ending Stocks, mil bu	10,876	10,642	10,236
Days of use on hand	145.9	134.7	129.8

Hard red winter wheat is the dominant class grown in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas with soft red winter wheat the most common class east of a line from Dallas to Kansas City. While the price of both classes of wheat are higher in the current global environment, there are important differentials in stocks-to-use by class which may help explain the premiums and discounts between these markets. 

As with the global wheat situation, the stocks-to-use ratio for both hard and soft winter wheat have been on the decline in the U.S. the last several years. However, the decline in the stocks-to-use ratio for soft red has been sharper relative to the decline in the stocks-to-use ratio for hard red. 

U.S. Wheat by Class: Days of Use on Hand at the End of the Marketing Year

In the 2017/18 marketing year, days of use for soft red was 34 less than hard red winter. By 2020/21, soft red days on hand were 103 less than for hard red—the soft wheat supply got tighter relative to hard wheat.  The hard red winter wheat premium declined from +8 cents to a 74-cent discount.  That situation appears to be reversing in the 2021/22 marketing year. The stocks-to-use ratio for soft red winter wheat has declined at a slower rate compared to hard red winter wheat and days on hand are back to a 54-day differential—soft winter wheat supplies are more plentiful relative to hard red winter wheat.  The price relationship to date this marketing year has hard red winter back on par with soft wheat. The latest weekly price shows a premium for hard red of 22 cents.  

SRWW days of use on hand minus HRWW days of use on hand and the HRWW price premium

With the U.S. only accounting for about six percent of world wheat production, supply and demand dynamics globally will largely influence the price of wheat overall.  But important distinctions in supply and use levels by wheat class can be important in local markets. For the time being, the fundamental (supply and demand) and price relationship between hard red winter and soft red winter wheat appears to be moving back toward long-term norms.    

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Welch, Mark. “2022 Price Outlook for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter Wheat.” Southern Ag Today 2(5.1). January 24, 2022. Permalink