Author: Josh Maples

Authors Josh Maples and David Anderson

For the many industry watchers who have long wondered how much bigger cattle slaughter weights could get, the latest trends suggest 2026 could see weights continue to rise. Steer dressed weights averaged 984 pounds during the second week of February. Assuming a 62.5 percent dressing percentage, that implies an average live steer weight of 1,575 lbs. As shown in the chart, this is up from a year ago and also up from earlier years. 

Federally inspected slaughter has been trending lower due to tight supplies of cattle. For the first two months of 2026, total cattle slaughter is 7.3 percent below the same period of 2025, which includes an 8.6 percent decline in steers, a 6.9 percent decline in heifers, and a 17 percent decline in beef cows. Only dairy cow slaughter is up (6.9 percent) from a year ago. Due to heavier weights, beef production this year is only down 5.5 percent compared to the same period last year. The current market is defined by two clear themes of heavier weights and fewer cattle.

Seasonally, we’d expect steer weights to decline during the first half of the year, but that has not yet happened. Dressed weights are well above the 2020–2024 average and continue to trend higher at a time when they would normally be easing. Despite the strong prices, cattle are staying on feed longer. In the current environment of strong fed cattle prices and relatively manageable cost of gain, feedlots appear willing to add pounds rather than market cattle lighter. Packers need cattle but have not broadly begun to pull cattle through faster in a way that would lead to declining average weights.  The winter storm in late January does not appear to have impacted dressed weights either.

As we move further into the year, the key question will be if/when weights will break seasonally. For now, cattle dressed weights are historically high, slaughter is lower, and overall supplies remain very tight.

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Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “Heavy Cattle Weights and Fewer Head.” Southern Ag Today 6(10.2). March 3, 2026. Permalink

Cattle futures markets remained volatile last week but tended to rebound following the sharp selloff generated by the discussion of plans to lower beef prices.  Given a couple of weeks, we now have a better picture of how cattle auction cash prices reacted to the futures market uncertainty.  

The CME December Live Cattle contract traded below $224 for part of the day on October 27^th, but has since recovered some and is trading above $232 at the time of this writing. This is sharply lower than the $248 price on October 16th. However, it is just a few dollars below the average trading price of the December contract during the month of September ($235.80). Similarly, the CME November Feeder Cattle contract traded below $330 for part of the day on October 28th but has since recovered some and is trading above $342 at the time of this writing. For context, this contract topped $380 on October 16th but averaged $353.72 during trading in September. The market uncertainty over the past few weeks has not crashed the futures market to low levels, but it has erased the rally seen in futures markets over the past month or two. 

Most auction markets operate sales one day per week, compared to the futures market that trades every weekday.  Local auctions have now had at least one sale since the futures market selloff and rebound, so we have the opportunity to better gauge the local cash market reaction.  Auction market prices saw sizable drops last week across the Southeast. The table shows selected averages for various states across the southeast.  Prices were lower across all states in the table for both 500-600lb steers and 700-800lb steers. Prices dropped the most in Oklahoma City and in Missouri. Averaging across all states, the value of a 550 lb. steer was about $150 lower per head in the southeast compared to the week prior. The value of a 750 lb. steer was about $120 lower per head. The impacts were certainly larger in some states. 

Fed cattle prices also dropped last week. The average live negotiated fed steer price fell $7 per cwt to $230.86, which is the lowest weekly average since the last week of September. Boxed beef cutout values did not decline. The choice cutout was about $7 higher last week and is $12 higher than it was two weeks ago.  It’s worth remembering that the cutout reflects the values of the 7 primal cuts weighted by their pounds in the carcass.  Imports would largely have more of an impact on lean beef trimmings for ground beef.  While some chucks and rounds go into ground beef, along with some sirloins and occasionally some briskets, the impact of more imports might have a more indirect effect on the boxed beef cutout.

There remains significant fundamental strength for cattle markets given the tight supplies of cattle and strong demand for beef. However, the past few weeks have shown that uncertainty can have swift impacts on cattle prices – not only for traders in futures markets but also at cattle auctions in towns across the U.S. 

Southeast Cattle Prices Prices $/cwt.		For Weeks Ending On 10/31/25   10/24/25     11/1/24			%Chg Prev. Week	%Chg Prev. Year	Chg Prev. Week
500-600lb. Feeder Steers	Mississippi MIL #1-2	$355.63	$374.66	$252.68	-5%	41%	($19.03)
	Arkansas MIL#1	$379.93	$406.43	$267.74	-7%	42%	($26.50)
	Kentucky MIL#1-2	$370.00	$396.52	$267.74	-7%	38%	($26.52)
	Oklahoma MIL#1-2	$378.76	$428.54	$265.80	-12%	42%	($49.78)
	Alabama MIL#1	$382.54	$405.10	$263.25	-6%	45%	($22.55)
	Tennessee MIL #1-2	$351.26	$361.37	$257.56	-3%	36%	($10.11)
	Texas  MIL #1-2	$347.73	$374.21	$263.65	-7%	32%	($26.48)
	Missouri MIL#1-2	$365.08	$406.06	$269.15	-10%	36%	($40.98)
700-800 lb. Feeder Steers	Mississippi MIL #1-2	$299.22	$318.83	$211.66	-6%	41%	($19.60)
	Arkansas MIL#1	$341.16	$355.77	$226.06	-4%	51%	($14.61)
	Kentucky MIL#1-2	$332.35	$341.63	$238.65	-3%	39%	($9.27)
	Oklahoma MIL#1-2	$334.26	$356.95	$246.09	-6%	36%	($22.69)
	Alabama MIL#1	$327.36	$333.72	$231.67	-2%	41%	($6.36)
	Tennessee MIL #1-2	$315.63	$322.00	$226.65	-2%	39%	($6.37)
	Texas  MIL #1-2	$312.50	$334.24	$241.60	-7%	29%	($21.74)
	Missouri MIL#1-2	$334.58	$362.91	$240.18	-8%	39%	($28.33)
Negotiated Fed Steers	Live Price	$230.86	$237.89	$189.82	-3%	22%	($7.03)
	Dressed Price	$358.54	$369.30	$296.97	-3%	21%	($10.76)
Boxed Beef Cutout	Choice Value, 600-900 lb.	$379.06	$372.13	$319.50	2%	19%	$6.93
	Select Value, 600-900 lb.	$360.32	$354.47	$288.37	2%	25%	$5.85

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Maples, Josh. “Cattle Auction Prices Follow Futures Prices Lower.” Southern Ag Today 5(45.2). November 4, 2025. Permalink

The USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report showed continued tightening of feedlot supplies. Total cattle on feed was down only 1.1 percent from a year ago, but both placements into feedlots and marketings out of feedlots were sharply below year-ago levels.

As of September 1, feedlots with 1,000 head or more reported 11.1 million cattle on feed. Placements during August were 1.78 million head, a 9.9 percent decline from August 2024. Placements were lower across all weight classes. This was the lowest August placement total since 2015. 

At 1.57 million head, fed cattle marketed in August dropped 13.6 percent from a year ago. This was the lowest August marketing level since the series began in 1996. Excluding the early months of the pandemic, August 2025 was also the lowest marketings total of any month since 2015. There was one less slaughter day this year, which accounted for some of the difference, but this is still a very low marketings total. 

Regional differences are stark. The three largest cattle feeding states are Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas, which combine for about 65 percent of total cattle on feed. Despite smaller placements, cattle on feed in Nebraska was up 4.7 percent, and Kansas was up 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, the number of cattle on feed in Texas was 9.1 percent below September 2024, driven by an 18 percent decline in placements into Texas feedlots. The closure of the southern border to imports of feeder cattle due to concerns of New World Screwworm is impacting southern feedlots and could lead to Texas being surpassed by Nebraska as the largest cattle feeding state in the coming months. 

Nebraska has surpassed Texas in monthly totals only nine times, with most of those instances occurring during 2014-2016 and driven by severe drought reductions in Texas cattle. On September 1, Texas had 70 thousand head more cattle on feed than Nebraska and 150 thousand more than Kansas. This is much tighter than the 430 thousand and 470 thousand differences from a year ago. The 150 thousand head difference between Texas and Kansas is the closest since 1992.

Overall, this report was pretty telling about the current dynamics of the cattle and beef sector. At the national level, placements and marketings slowed sharply in August. A closer look at state-level statistics shows the shift northward in cattle feeding numbers as southern feeders face even tighter supplies. 

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Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “Feedlot Placements and Marketings Down Sharply from Year Ago.” Southern Ag Today 5(39.2). September 23, 2025. Permalink

Tight supplies and strong demand are driving all types of cattle to record price levels, including cull cows. The national direct dressed price for 85 percent lean (boner cows) cull cows topped $300 per CWT last week for the first time in history. At local auctions across the southeast, cull cow prices are topping $160, $170, $180, and occasionally even $190 per cwt, depending on type. Ground beef demand has been strong and is the product most closely associated with lean trim from cull cows. Average U.S. retail ground beef prices topped $6 per pound in June for the first time ever, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The chart below displays the price of 85 percent fresh trimmings and the pounds sold over time. This series is not comprehensive of all trims since it is just looking at formula sales for 85 percent trim and not any other percentages or sales type. However, the chart is interesting in that it highlights the inverse relationship between price and quantity. The declining availability of 85 percent trim over the past year has corresponded with sharp increases in price. This is driving the sharply higher dressed cow prices and local auction prices for cull cows. 

Imports are a key piece of this puzzle. Beef imports are up sharply this year amid the high U.S. domestic prices. The majority of imports are lean trim that will be mixed with the fattier trim produced by domestic fed steers and heifers to make ground beef. Recent changes in tariffs will have impacts on lean trim. Brazil was the top import source for the first half of 2025, but the tariff on beef from Brazil jumped to 76 percent last week, which is sure to lead to significant reductions for as long as the tariff is in place. Meanwhile, the percentage of those imports that were lean trim will need to be filled by other import sources or domestic lean trim (i.e., cows and bulls). This is a good example of how tariffs and trade flows can impact domestic prices and supplies.

This all leads to an important discussion about cow herd expansion. Producers making culling decisions ahead of winter will be tasked with navigating the value of the cow as a cull cow vs their expected value in producing a calf next year. As the value of domestic lean trim increases, cull cow prices also increase. There will be some producers who would not have culled cows at $150 per CWT, but will cull cows if they are able to get $200 per CWT, if their expected value of calves in 2026 is unchanged. These decisions are all interconnected. In the absence of much heifer retention, it is possible that surging cull cow values could slow expansion efforts further. 

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Maples, Will. “Ground Beef Now or Calves in 2026?” Southern Ag Today 5(33.2). August 12, 2025. Permalink

Cattle prices have continued to push higher over the past few months. Auction prices for feeder steers are up 5 to 10 percent since mid-April, depending on location. Live steer prices averaged $238.68 last week – another record and 13 percent above mid-April prices. Prices across feeder cattle and live cattle are 20 to 25 percent above year-ago levels. 

Beef values are also pushing higher. The Choice boxed beef cutout value was $382.11 per cwt on Monday, June 16. This is a 19 percent increase above year-ago levels. The weekly choice cutout has been increasing each week since mid-April. The continued weekly increases have already pushed past when many would normally expect the seasonal peak to occur ahead of summer grilling season. For reference, the only other time the cutout has been higher than $380 per cwt was a COVID-driven three-week period during May 2020. The chart above shows the cutout value over the past 5 and ½ years. The considerable increases in the loin and brisket are noteworthy. 

Looking at the primal level, the increases vary. The rib primal value was $538.29 (up 10 percent from a year ago), chuck value up 21 percent (to $316.32), round value up 20 percent ($311.73), loin value up 19 percent ($541.41), brisket value up 30 percent ($324.36), short plate up 29 percent ($270.75), and flank up 26 percent ($211.57).  Each of these changes show how important the markets for individual primal (and cuts) are to the overall carcass and animal value. 

Tight supplies of cattle and beef are supporting record high prices. It has been particularly interesting this year to see these continued increases in the cutout value push into June. April and May are the more common months for the choice cutout to peak, although the past few years have differed. In 2024, the choice cutout peaked the first week of July, and in 2023 it peaked in mid-June. 2025 is shaping up to be more similar to the past two years. 

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Maples, Josh. “Cattle and Beef Prices Push Higher.” Southern Ag Today 5(25.2). June 17, 2025. Permalink