Author: Josh Maples

As of early July 2026, pasture and rangeland conditions across much of the country remain drier than they were a year ago, though several regions have improved some in the past month. USDA details pasture and rangeland conditions in weekly crop progress reports. The share of pasture rated poor or very poor is a useful gauge of overall forage condition, and it often reflects moisture stress in particular.

In the Southeast (AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, and WV), pasture and rangeland rated poor or very poor started near 36 percent in early May when the report began. Conditions have improved, easing to about 26 percent by the week ending July 5. Even with that improvement, the region is running well behind last year, when only about 6 percent of pasture was rated poor or very poor at this point in the year. Current ratings also sit above the five-year average of roughly 15 percent for early July, indicating that forage is noticeably drier than producers have grown accustomed to.

The Southern Plains (Texas and Oklahoma) show a similar pattern. Poor and very poor ratings started near 38 percent in early May and have eased to about 29 percent in early July. That is higher than the roughly 12 percent rated poor or very poor a year ago, but close to the five-year average near 26 percent for this time of year. 

Conditions in the other regions are mixed. In the West, poor and very poor ratings have held in the high 20 percent range, an improvement over last year near 38 percent and slightly better than the five-year average. The Great Plains remain the trouble spot, with ratings near 40 percent in early July. That is down from more than 50 percent in mid-May, but still well above last year near 24 percent and above the five-year average, making it the region most stressed relative to normal.

While range and pasture condition improvement in recent weeks is certainly positive, overall conditions continue to hold back cattle herd expansion.  Beyond moisture, producers across southern pastures are also contending with the pasture mealybug, an invasive insect that is damaging bermudagrass and other forages.  

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Recommended citation format: Maples, Josh. “Pasture and Rangeland Conditions.“ Southern Ag Today 6(30.2). July 21, 2026. Permalink

Heading into grilling season, it is interesting to look at the shares of meat production and consumption in the U.S. One fact that may surprise, the United States now produces more pork than beef, yet Americans still eat more beef per person.

The USDA ERS May 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook projects 2026 pork production near 28 billion pounds against 25.5 billion pounds of beef. The gap reflects a shrinking cattle herd while hog supplies remain ample. ERS projects the gap to widen further in 2027. Broiler chicken production is projected at 49 billion pounds. 

Production is not the same as consumption. ERS projects 2026 per capita availability at 60 pounds of beef and 49.6 pounds of pork, with chicken far ahead at 105.6 pounds. Total red meat and poultry disappearance per capita is projected to top 230 pounds in 2026 which would be the highest on record. 

So why does beef lead pork at the dinner table when we raise more hogs? Trade. The U.S. is expected to export roughly a quarter of its pork production but only about 9 percent of beef production. Additionally, beef imports outweigh exports and will add more beef to consumers plates. 

Looking at price changes adds important context. The all-fresh retail beef value hit a record high $9.64 per pound in April, up 13% from a year earlier. Retail pork prices were essentially flat at $4.89 per pound and retail broiler prices declined slightly to $2.39 per pound. Despite the highest price tag, beef demand has stayed firm as consumers are paying more and still reaching for it.

Production volume and consumer demand are different signals, and it will be important to track both over the next few years. Across proteins, it appears there will be lots of meat on grills this summer.

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Maples, Josh. U.S. Meat Production and Consumption Patterns. Southern Ag Today 6(24.2). June 9, 2026. Permalink

U.S. beef exports to China have been an ever-evolving story in recent years. As shown on the chart above, exports were effectively zero until 2017 when China removed a ban on U.S. beef that dated back to 2003. Exports surged in 2021 and 2022, briefly making China a top three destination alongside Japan and South Korea. Since early 2025, beef exports to China have plummeted to very low levels amid broader trade challenges. For the first three months of 2026, beef exports to China totaled just 5.3 million pounds, a 95 percent decline from a year ago. 

The lower exports over the past year have been driven by the lack of U.S. beef facilities registrations that are required for all food manufacturers who export into China. Over 400 U.S. beef plants lost the ability to export into China after registrations expired and were not renewed over the past year. President Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China last week led to hope from the beef industry that these expired registrations would be renewed and that larger exports to China could resume. 

On Friday, the U.S. Meat Export Federation reported registration extensions have been granted to 425 overdue beef establishments, and an additional 77 establishments have been added, while 38 establishments remain suspended. This is good news for U.S. beef exports amid challenging export dynamics. Tight supplies of U.S. beef and high domestic prices have been a headwind to beef exports. Those headwinds remain with the renewed registrations, but China is a key market. 

It is also worth mentioning U.S. beef exports to Hong Kong have increased over the past year, while exports to China declined. It is helpful to combine exports to both countries when looking at overall trends. While Hong Kong has offset some of the decline in exports to mainland China, combined exports to China and Hong Kong remain well below the levels seen during 2021–2024, when mainland China was a much larger buyer.

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Maples, Josh. “U.S. Beef Exports to China Bottleneck.” Southern Ag Today 6(21.2). May 19, 2026. Permalink

Authors: Josh Maples and David Anderson

Through the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. imported 1.7 billion pounds of beef, which is up more than 15 percent from the same period last year. Beef exports fell nearly 18 percent to 586 million pounds. Both trends reflect the tight U.S. cattle herd and high domestic beef prices.

South Korea and Japan together accounted for nearly half of all U.S. beef exports but have both declined, down 7 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Mexico and Canada, the third and fourth largest destinations, each declined around 8 percent, while Taiwan was the lone increase among major markets, up nearly 8 percent. Exports to China during the first three months of 2026 totaled only 5.3 million pounds, down 95 percent from a year ago and a dramatic reversal from recent years when China was among the top U.S. beef markets.

On the import side, the U.S. imported 1.7 billion pounds through the first quarter, up 15.3 percent year over year. Brazil leads all import sources with 394 million pounds, up 8 percent.  The majority of those shipments entered at the higher out-of-quota tariff rate of 26.4 percent after the “Other Countries” annual quota was filled within the first week of 2026. Australia posted a 12 percent gain to 334 million pounds. The largest gain among major suppliers came from Mexico, up 23 percent to 197 million pounds. It’s likely that some increase in beef imports from Mexico are due to the border closure to feeder cattle, leading to increased beef production in Mexico, boosting their exportable supplies. Argentina ranked sixth among suppliers at 3.6 percent of total imports despite shipments nearly doubling year over year.

USDA currently projects 2026 will set another annual import record. Tight domestic cattle supplies and strong beef demand are expected to keep imports elevated and exports under pressure well into 2026. The May 11^thannouncement of suspension of the tariff rate quotas for beef, effectively reducing import tariff levels, could lead to even higher beef import totals. It’s worth remembering that the majority of beef imports are lean beef trimmings for ground beef so any potential impacts of more imports due to TRQ related tariffs would fall on trimmings and cull cow markets. But, even then, price impacts are expected to be limited.  

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Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “U.S. Beef Imports Hit Record Pace as Exports Drop.” Southern Ag Today 6(20.2). May 12, 2026. Permalink

Authors: Josh Maples and David Anderson

The USDA Livestock Slaughter 2025 Summary was released last week and showed U.S. red meat production declined about 2 percent in 2025 from 2024 levels. Beef production was the main driver of the overall decrease in red meat supplies at 3.6 percent below 2024. Pork production was 0.8 percent lower than in 2024, while lamb production was essentially flat.  An observant reader will notice that lamb production is such a small portion of total red meat production that it does not readily show up on the attached chart of total red meat supplies.

Digging deeper into beef production and cattle slaughter highlights the impact of larger harvest weights on beef supply. Commercial cattle slaughter totaled 29.8 million head, down 6 percent from 2024. However, average live weights increased by 33 pounds. The rise in live weights provided some offset to the smaller number of cattle moving through processing plants in 2025. Average live weights have increased by 67 pounds since 2023.

The mix of steers, heifers, and cows as a proportion of total cattle slaughter shifted somewhat in 2025, although not in a way that would suggest herd expansion. Steers comprised 49.7 percent of total federally inspected cattle slaughter, up from 48.6 percent in 2024. That is not to say that more steers were slaughtered, but, as fewer cows were culled, steers made up a larger percentage of total cattle slaughter.  Heifers made up 31.7 percent of cattle slaughter, down slightly from 32 percent the previous year. Cull cows represented 17 percent of total slaughter, down from 17.8 percent in 2024. Within the cull cow total, 53 percent were dairy cows, up from 49 percent in 2024.The April Cold Storage report from USDA provides a snapshot of meat supplies in freezers at the end of March. Total red meat in cold storage was down 2 percent from a year ago, with beef inventories declining 3 percent. Pork in cold storage was up 2 percent from last year, while poultry supplies were down 5 percent year over year. Within the poultry category, chicken inventories were down 3 percent, while turkey in cold storage was down 9 percent from last year.

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Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “Decline in 2025 Red Meat Production Driven by Beef.” Southern Ag Today 6(18.2). April 28, 2026. Permalink