Author: Landyn Young

Five countries produce 70 percent of the world’s peanuts annually. In the 2024/2025 marketing year, 51.4 million metric tons (MMT) of peanuts were grown, and these five leading countries contributed 35.1 MMT to that total. The United States ranks fourth in global peanut production (2.9 MMT) behind China (19 MMT), India (7.1 MMT), and Nigeria (4.3 MMT).

Production of peanut oil for the five largest markets together accounted for 81 percent of the 6.24 MMT of global production in the 2024 marketing year. Leading global producers, Chinese production has remained relatively stable between 3.1-3.23 MMT since the 2019/2020 marketing year. Indian production has been similar with production between 1.2-1.28 MMT since the 2019 marketing year. The three that follow together accounted for only 694 thousand metric tons (TMT). 

Only 470 TMT of peanut oil production was traded in the 2024 marketing year, or 7.5 percent of peanut oil production. The five largest exporters accounted for 91.8 percent of exports in the most recent marketing year. On the other side of that trade, the three largest importers totaled 93.8 percent of peanut oil imports. China accounted for most of that, with 350 TMT in the most recent marketing year, or 74.4 percent of peanut oil imports. The European Union (55 TMT) and, United States (36 TMT) are the two other largest markets.

In the 2024 marketing year, global demand for peanut oil totaled 6.16 MMT, with 83.7 percent going to the five largest markets. More than half of global demand for peanut oil can be attributed to China. India ranks second, despite being a recurring leader for global exports, with just over one million metric tons. Demand in the United States has remained stable around 123-148 TMT, with the exception of the 2019/2020 marketing year, which was around 111 TMT. Excluding the 2019 marketing year, where only 2 TMT of peanut oil was imported, 10-26 percent of demand for the United States is supplied from imports.

References

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Peanut Oil Custom Query. Production, Supply, Distribution (PSD). Online public database. Accessed June 2025.

---

Young, Landyn, and Luis Ribera. “Opportunity for Increased U.S. Peanut Oil Production.” Southern Ag Today 5(26.4). June 26, 2025. Permalink

United States (U.S.) pecan production totaled 120 thousand metric tons (TMT) in 2024. Exports of pecans from the United States in 2024 totaled 53.7 TMT, worth a total of $381 million. In-shell pecans accounted for 32.2 TMT and $169.2 million; the remaining 21.5 TMT and $211.8 million of exports were shelled. In-shell exports to Mexico and China accounted for $94.5 million in 2024, representing 75.8 percent of the total volume of in-shell exports. The export market for shelled pecan exports is less consolidated.

Due to the ease of access to low-cost labor in Mexico, a significant portion of the in-shell pecans exported to Mexico will be shelled and then imported back to the United States, where they will be sold domestically or packaged for export elsewhere. This makes Mexico far and away the largest market for U.S. pecan imports. Mexico accounted for 99.7 and 99.5 percent of in-shell and shelled imports, respectively.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) worked to lower trade barriers and was renewed recently in 2020 as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). One such barrier addressed was tariffs on pecan trade between the United States and Mexico, which were set at zero percent. This does not account for non-tariff barriers to trade. Non-tariff measures (NTM) have a major impact on trade that is difficult to quantify. Since 2004, the NTMs for all WTO countries have nearly quadrupled from 5.3 thousand measures to 19 thousand. The largest NTM category is sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) restrictions.

The pecan weevil quarantine is one such SPS issue that has arisen. Arizona, California, New Mexico (except for Otero County), and six counties near El Paso, Texas, are all that fall outside of the pecan weevil quarantine zone. While the Texas Department of Agriculture also has a quarantine on pecan weevils for many eastern states, once one of the four approved treatment options has been completed, the product is free to travel from a non-quarantine zone. That is not the case with exports to Mexico, which requires non-quarantined pecans to be treated and will not allow any pecans from quarantine areas. 

In February, it was announced that a 25 percent tariff would be placed on both USMCA partner countries; this applies to all products, including agricultural imports. Thus, the tariff rate on imported pecans from Mexico, which is primarily shelled, would increase from zero percent to 25 percent. U.S. pecan imports coming from Mexico account for over 99.5 percent of the total for both shelled and in-shell; thus, other new import tariffs have little impact comparatively. It is very difficult to predict the actual impact of the 25 percent tariff, but somewhere along the supply chain, the extra cost will have to be paid, and oftentimes the lion’s share falls onto the consumer.

References

Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS). Online database. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx. Online public database accessed August 2025. 

USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Phytosanitary Export Database (PExD) with Requirements by Country. https://pcit.aphis.usda.gov/PExD/faces/ViewPExD.jsf  Online public database accessed May 2025.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Quick Stats. https://www.nass.usda.gov accessed May 2025.

World Trade Organization. WTO Stats. https://stats.wto.org/. Online public database. Accessed April 2025.

---

Young, Landyn, and Luis Ribera. “U.S. Pecan Trade and Tariff Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(24.4). June 12, 2025. Permalink

In recent years, fresh fruit and vegetable production in the United States has been on the decline, U.S. production has decreased by 10 and 23.1 percent respectively since 2000. With declining domestic production, imports of fresh fruits and vegetables have grown substantially with some products only being available in the United States due to imports. Since 2020, a larger share of the total supply of fresh fruit in the United States was imported than grown domestically and has increased from 36.6 percent in 2000 to 54.8 percent in 2022 (Figure 1). Vegetable imports in 2022 were 29.3 percent of the total supply up from 9.5% in 2000. The value of imported fresh fruits and vegetables for 2022 was $18.23 billion. After including exports, the total volume of fresh fruits and vegetables available in the United States was 94.65 billion pounds, or 283.63 pounds per capita.

The United States has gone from being a net exporter of fresh produce in 1980 with 3.25 billion pounds to a net importer starting in 1998 with 1.88 billion pounds (Figure 2). Net trade of fresh produce, excluding bananas, for the United States during 2022 totaled 24.4 billion pounds of trade deficit and has been over 10 billion pounds since 2013. The United States was a net exporter of fresh fruits, excluding bananas, from 1980 to 2002, since then the United States net imports have grown considerably. During 1980 the United States trade surplus of fresh fruits, excluding bananas, totaled 3.11 billion pounds of exports. In 2022, the trade deficit of fresh fruits, excluding bananas, totals 10.4 billion pounds of imports. As for fresh vegetables, the United States has not had exports exceed imports since 1992. During 2022, imports of fresh vegetables were 13.9 billion pounds higher than exports and continue to grow. 

---

Young, Landyn, Luis Ribera. “U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Supply.” Southern Ag Today 4(22.4). May 30, 2024. Permalink

The United States had a total supply of 105.51 billion pounds of fresh produce in 2022. Fruit availability in the United States totaled 42.26 billion pounds in 2022, or 40.1 percent of fresh produce. The total supply of fresh fruit can be split into U.S. production and imports which are, respectively, 19.11 and 23.15 billion pounds.  Fresh vegetables are also broken into production and imports, some products also include beginning stocks which contributed an additional 1.30 billion pounds in 2022. Vegetable production totaled 42.92 billion pounds with imports at 20.32 billion.

The main fruits produced domestically were apples, oranges, strawberries, grapes, and lemons while the main fruits imported were bananas, avocados, pineapples, grapes, and limes.  The main vegetables produced domestically were potatoes, onions, leaf and romaine, head lettuce and sweet potatoes, while the main imported vegetables were tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, potatoes, and onions. While production values are still unavailable for 2023, information on trade indicates that U.S. imports for fresh fruits increased by 2.13 percent from 2022. Fresh vegetables decreased by a third of a percent from one year to the next.

Moreover, during 2023, Mexico was the largest exporter of fresh produce to the United States totaling an estimated 25.1 billion pounds, worth an estimated $17.96 billion. Of that 10.25 billion pounds, or 40.9 percent, was fresh fruit and the other 14.84 billion pounds were fresh vegetables. Mexico is the largest source of U.S. imports for a large variety of products. Mexican exports are dominated by tomatoes with 4.29 billion pounds of exports followed by avocados (2.48 billion pounds) and peppers (1.85 billion pounds). U.S. import volume for each of these three products from Mexico is larger than the total volume of fresh produce imported from any market outside of the top five.

Guatemala and Costa Rica followed Mexico as the two next largest exporters of fresh produce to the United States. Guatemala was the source of 6.17 billion pounds of fresh produce with 4.44 billion pounds from Costa Rica. Over 90 percent of the total fresh produce exported to the United States for both countries was fresh fruit with the volume heavily concentrated to a few products. Of the 6.17 billion pounds of produce exported from Guatemala 4.38 billion pounds were bananas. Similarly, Costa Rica leads exports of pineapples to the United States with 2.46 billion pounds of the 4.44 billion.

---

The annual growth in U.S. ag exports to Mexico has mostly been positive since the two countries opened their markets. In 2022, the United States exported 38.9 million metric tons (MMT) of agricultural products to Mexico worth $28.5 billion. Since NAFTA took effect in 1994, exports of U.S. ag products to Mexico have grown from 13.4 MMT and $4.67 billion. Over the 29 years of free trade between the two countries, starting with NAFTA and now USMCA, there was an increase in volume of U.S. ag exports for all but ten years. Note the trade value changed very little in the middle and late 2010’s despite volume growing nearly every year. It is assumed that the reason value did not match the growth in volume these years is because of a decrease in per unit export value of multiple major commodity groups. In only eight of the past twenty-nine years, we have not seen a positive change in the value of U.S. ag exports. 

Value has grown substantially during this time, while the volume of trade has grown at a less dramatic rate as seen in Chart 1: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023. Higher increases in commodity prices are responsible for the different rates of growth. USMCA started in 2020 which coincided with a sudden rise in the value of ag exports; however, it is likely that the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation caused the steep growth. 

Texas agricultural exports to Mexico have contributed to the growth in U.S. ag exports to Mexico as seen in Chart 2: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023. During 2022, Texas accounted for 19 percent ($5.55 billion) of total U.S. ag exports to Mexico. The total export value of ag products from Texas to Mexico has increased 13 of the past 20 years. The United States has increased 15 of the past 20 years.

---

Young, Landyn. “U.S. has Experienced Consistent Ag Export Growth to Mexico Under NAFTA and USMCA.” Southern Ag Today 3(24.4). June 15, 2023. Permalink