Author: Landyn Young

In recent years, fresh fruit and vegetable production in the United States has been on the decline, U.S. production has decreased by 10 and 23.1 percent respectively since 2000. With declining domestic production, imports of fresh fruits and vegetables have grown substantially with some products only being available in the United States due to imports. Since 2020, a larger share of the total supply of fresh fruit in the United States was imported than grown domestically and has increased from 36.6 percent in 2000 to 54.8 percent in 2022 (Figure 1). Vegetable imports in 2022 were 29.3 percent of the total supply up from 9.5% in 2000. The value of imported fresh fruits and vegetables for 2022 was $18.23 billion. After including exports, the total volume of fresh fruits and vegetables available in the United States was 94.65 billion pounds, or 283.63 pounds per capita.

The United States has gone from being a net exporter of fresh produce in 1980 with 3.25 billion pounds to a net importer starting in 1998 with 1.88 billion pounds (Figure 2). Net trade of fresh produce, excluding bananas, for the United States during 2022 totaled 24.4 billion pounds of trade deficit and has been over 10 billion pounds since 2013. The United States was a net exporter of fresh fruits, excluding bananas, from 1980 to 2002, since then the United States net imports have grown considerably. During 1980 the United States trade surplus of fresh fruits, excluding bananas, totaled 3.11 billion pounds of exports. In 2022, the trade deficit of fresh fruits, excluding bananas, totals 10.4 billion pounds of imports. As for fresh vegetables, the United States has not had exports exceed imports since 1992. During 2022, imports of fresh vegetables were 13.9 billion pounds higher than exports and continue to grow. 

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Young, Landyn, Luis Ribera. “U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Supply.” Southern Ag Today 4(22.4). May 30, 2024. Permalink

The United States had a total supply of 105.51 billion pounds of fresh produce in 2022. Fruit availability in the United States totaled 42.26 billion pounds in 2022, or 40.1 percent of fresh produce. The total supply of fresh fruit can be split into U.S. production and imports which are, respectively, 19.11 and 23.15 billion pounds.  Fresh vegetables are also broken into production and imports, some products also include beginning stocks which contributed an additional 1.30 billion pounds in 2022. Vegetable production totaled 42.92 billion pounds with imports at 20.32 billion.

The main fruits produced domestically were apples, oranges, strawberries, grapes, and lemons while the main fruits imported were bananas, avocados, pineapples, grapes, and limes.  The main vegetables produced domestically were potatoes, onions, leaf and romaine, head lettuce and sweet potatoes, while the main imported vegetables were tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, potatoes, and onions. While production values are still unavailable for 2023, information on trade indicates that U.S. imports for fresh fruits increased by 2.13 percent from 2022. Fresh vegetables decreased by a third of a percent from one year to the next.

Moreover, during 2023, Mexico was the largest exporter of fresh produce to the United States totaling an estimated 25.1 billion pounds, worth an estimated $17.96 billion. Of that 10.25 billion pounds, or 40.9 percent, was fresh fruit and the other 14.84 billion pounds were fresh vegetables. Mexico is the largest source of U.S. imports for a large variety of products. Mexican exports are dominated by tomatoes with 4.29 billion pounds of exports followed by avocados (2.48 billion pounds) and peppers (1.85 billion pounds). U.S. import volume for each of these three products from Mexico is larger than the total volume of fresh produce imported from any market outside of the top five.

Guatemala and Costa Rica followed Mexico as the two next largest exporters of fresh produce to the United States. Guatemala was the source of 6.17 billion pounds of fresh produce with 4.44 billion pounds from Costa Rica. Over 90 percent of the total fresh produce exported to the United States for both countries was fresh fruit with the volume heavily concentrated to a few products. Of the 6.17 billion pounds of produce exported from Guatemala 4.38 billion pounds were bananas. Similarly, Costa Rica leads exports of pineapples to the United States with 2.46 billion pounds of the 4.44 billion.

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The annual growth in U.S. ag exports to Mexico has mostly been positive since the two countries opened their markets. In 2022, the United States exported 38.9 million metric tons (MMT) of agricultural products to Mexico worth $28.5 billion. Since NAFTA took effect in 1994, exports of U.S. ag products to Mexico have grown from 13.4 MMT and $4.67 billion. Over the 29 years of free trade between the two countries, starting with NAFTA and now USMCA, there was an increase in volume of U.S. ag exports for all but ten years. Note the trade value changed very little in the middle and late 2010’s despite volume growing nearly every year. It is assumed that the reason value did not match the growth in volume these years is because of a decrease in per unit export value of multiple major commodity groups. In only eight of the past twenty-nine years, we have not seen a positive change in the value of U.S. ag exports. 

Value has grown substantially during this time, while the volume of trade has grown at a less dramatic rate as seen in Chart 1: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023. Higher increases in commodity prices are responsible for the different rates of growth. USMCA started in 2020 which coincided with a sudden rise in the value of ag exports; however, it is likely that the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation caused the steep growth. 

Texas agricultural exports to Mexico have contributed to the growth in U.S. ag exports to Mexico as seen in Chart 2: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023. During 2022, Texas accounted for 19 percent ($5.55 billion) of total U.S. ag exports to Mexico. The total export value of ag products from Texas to Mexico has increased 13 of the past 20 years. The United States has increased 15 of the past 20 years.

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Young, Landyn. “U.S. has Experienced Consistent Ag Export Growth to Mexico Under NAFTA and USMCA.” Southern Ag Today 3(24.4). June 15, 2023. Permalink

The United States is a world leader in pecan production totaling an estimated 115 thousand metric tons (TMT). Georgia led the country with over 40 TMT of pecans grown, despite production being 26.7 TMT lower than the previous year. New Mexico ranked closely behind growing 35.6 TMT of pecans. Georgia and New Mexico accounted for 65.5 percent of U.S. pecans in 2021. Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma followed those two to round out the top five states for pecans grown.

In addition to being a major grower of pecans, the United States is an exporter of both in-shell and shelled pecans. In-shell exports have been leading shelled exports in terms of volume for years but have decreased each year. The largest decline occurred when China cut imported pecans from the United States from 30 TMT to 10 TMT in 2018 after additional tariffs were levied on U.S. pecans by China. Despite these additional tariffs being removed, imports have not been able to reach the same level as years prior. Mexico is currently the largest importer of U.S. shelled pecans; in 2021 Mexico represented 47.5 percent or 15.6 TMT of in-shell pecans exported from the United States. A large portion of the in-shell nuts exported to Mexico are shelled and then exported back to the United States to be packaged where they will be consumed domestically or exported one more time. Shelled pecan exports from the United States have been on the rise in recent years growing by 10 TMT since 2017. The largest importing countries for U.S. shelled pecans are Canada, the EU(primarily the Netherlands or Germany), and Mexico. These four countries account for 60.3 percent of all shelled pecans exported from the United States, or 19.3 TMT.

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Author: Landyn Young

Program Coordinator

Landyn.young@ag.tamu.edu

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Young, Landyn. “U.S. Pecan Trade“. Southern Ag Today 2(45.4). November 3, 2022. Permalink

Photo by Sara Cervera on Unsplash