Author: Max Runge

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its annual Prospective Plantings report on March 28, 2024.  This report typically isn’t as exciting as college basketball’s March Madness, but the Prospective Plantings report does supply estimates of acreage that affects the agricultural markets and provides the basis for numerous discussions for the upcoming growing season. 

What does the 2024 Prospective Plantings report show for the Southern Ag Today States? The following tables show the prospective planting acreage for the Southeastern states, with the 2023 planted acres and the predicted 2024 acres (and 2024 acres as a percentage of the 2023 acres). The states are listed in rank from most to least 2024 acres.

Table 1 indicates the corn acres that are projected for the Southeastern states. Oklahoma is the only southern state that shows an increase in 2024 corn acres while Arkansas and Mississippi are predicted to plant about 25% fewer acres. While the Southeastern states are expected to plant about 10% of the U.S. corn acres, this is 27.67% of the reduction in U.S.2024 corn acres. While some of the lost corn acres in the Southeast are shifted to soybean and cotton, there are some acres that are not reflected in the 2024 major crop plantings.

Overall, the U.S. is predicted to plant 90 million acres in 2024. This is five percent lower than 2023 acres and slightly lower than industry expectations, resulting in a sixteen-cent rally for December 2024 corn futures prices.

Upland Cotton prospective plantings are included in Table 2. U.S. Cotton acres are expected to be four percent higher than in 2023. Half of the Southeastern states have double-digit percentage increases, and the remaining states are near the previous year’s cotton acres.

Peanut acres are shown in Table 3. Overall, peanut acres across the nation are predicted to remain the same as in 2023. South Carolina and Mississippi have the highest percentage increase in acres, while Texas and Virginia have largest percentage peanut decrease in acres. 

Table 4 illustrates that soybean acres for 2024 is up three percent in the U.S.  Oklahoma has the largest increase in predicted acres, with Texas losing the largest percentage of acres in 2024.

It should be noted that that these are only intended plantings, and the actual acreage will vary from these estimates. Weather, commodity prices, input prices, and availability will have an impact on the acres that get planted.

Source: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/x633f100h/31980870j/fj237r16t/pspl0324.pdf

Runge, Max. “2024 Prospective Plantings for Southern Ag Today States.” Southern Ag Today 4(15.3). April 10, 2024. Permalink

The Land Grant University System has a historic tradition of the combined missions of teaching, research, and extension.  In fact, Southern Ag Today was born out of a collaboration of Extension Economists across the Southern region.  The Old Rotation at Auburn, is a great example of Land Grant history and continued relevance.  As cited from the National Register of Historic Places, January 14, 1988:

 The Old Rotation. 

Established in 1896 by Professor J.F. Duggar, the Old Rotation at Auburn University is: 

• The oldest, continuous cotton experiment in the U.S.
• The 3^rd oldest continuous field crop experiment in the U.S.
• The 1^st experiment to demonstrate the benefits of rotating cotton with other crops to improve yields and utilize nitrogen-restoring legumes in a cotton-production system. It continues to document the long-term effect of these rotations in the same soil.

The Old Rotation has had 128 years of cotton planted in the same soil and provides valuable insight into cover crops and crop rotation, and one of the original objectives of utilizing legume cover crops is significant today.

Table 1 shows yields from 1896 through 2023 from plot # 6 and plot # 8  (there are a total of 13 plots with different treatments). Plot # 6 has been planted to continuous cotton with no additional Nitrogen (N) fertilizer and no cover crop.  Plot # 8 was also planted in continuous cotton with no added N, but included a winter legume cover crop consisting of crimson clover and hairy vetch.  The plots have otherwise been treated the same over the research period.  It is also important to note that these are non-irrigated plots; there are years with very low or no yields; and the yields have increased significantly due to improved management practices and genetics. 

The yield difference over the last 100 years is clear and substantial.  However, the yields between 1896 and 1921 were virtually the same, so it took some time for the net benefit of the practice to accumulate.  Much has changed about cotton production in 128 years, but the history of The Old Rotation suggests the reasonable conclusion that good soil and fertility management (or the lack of) is a long term game.    

With more emphasis on improving soil health and reducing fertilizer costs in the Southern region, looking at long term research helps to provide solutions.

More information about the Old Rotation can be found at: https://agriculture.auburn.edu/research/cses/the-old-rotation/

Runge, Max. “Historic Research Yields Modern Solutions.” Southern Ag Today 3(47.3). November 22, 2023. Permalink

What is the value of the nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium that is removed when hay is baled and carried away from the field? In March, we looked at wheat straw nutrient removal¹, but the value of nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium should also be considered in hay production.

Baling and removing 8,000 pounds of Bermuda grass hay over the course of a hay season removes 400 pounds of nitrogen (N), 90 pounds of phosphorus (P2O5), and 345 pounds of potash (K2O) per acre². Prices of $0.71 per pound of nitrogen, $0.73 per pound of phosphorus, and $0.61 per pound of potash³ were used to reflect the approximate value of the nutrients. The table below shows the value of the N, P2O5, and K2O removed on a per acre basis when 8,000 pounds of Bermuda grass hay is removed. The value of the nutrients removed by the Bermuda grass hay is $561.61 per acre per year. Or on a 1200-pound round bale basis, that value is $54.24 per bale. Adding the cost of baling (1200 lbs. round bale) of $14.50⁴ per bale and moving⁴ the bales out of the field at $4.35 per bale brings the total costs to $103.09 per 1,200-pound bale.  Converting these values to a per ton basis (4 tons/acre), the nutrient value is $140.40 per ton, and baling and moving is an additional $31.42 per ton. The total per ton costs are $171.82.

It should be noted that this is just the value of N, P, and K, as there are some micronutrients that are removed as well. 

There are caveats. The amount of hay harvested, costs of nutrients, baling and moving will likely be different depending on numerous factors, including location, yield, type of bales, the efficiency of the baler, and soil type. Check local resources in your area to estimate the value/cost of the nutrients and baling costs. 

Information for the values included in this article can be found in the following resources.

1.    https://southernagtoday.org/2023/03/29/wheat-straw-nutrient-removal/

2.   https://www.aces.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ANR-0449.REV_.3.pdf

3.    https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/production-cost

4.  http://agecon.ca.uky.edu/files/custom_machinery_rates_applicable_to_kentucky_2022.pdf