Author: Michael Deliberto

Like many other agricultural sectors, there has been consolidation in United States (US) farm-level sugar production. Sugar is a unique commodity because about 56 percent of the domestic production of sugar originates from sugarbeets and 44 percent originates from sugarcane. The US domestic production of sugar has increased from 8.02 million short tons raw value (STRV) in 1997 to 9.31 million STRV in 2024, an increase of 16% (USDA ERS, 2025a). However, there are now 50 percent fewer sugarbeet and sugarcane farms in the country. 

In 1997, the USDA Census of Agriculture recorded a total of 8,136 sugarbeet and sugarcane producing farms (USDA NASS, 2025). However, by 2022 that number had declined to 4,002, a decrease of over 50 percent. Figure 1 shows sugarbeet and sugarcane production from 1997 through 2024 and the number of sugarbeet and sugarcane farms recorded by the US Census of Agriculture every five years, beginning in 1997. 

Figure 1. Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production and Farms. 

Sugarbeets

From 1997 through 2022, while there was a decrease in sugarbeet farms and sugarbeet harvested acres, there was an increase in the amount of sugar produced from sugarbeets. The number of sugarbeet farms fell by 54 percent, from 7,057 farms in 1997 to only 3,257 in 2022 (Figure 1). Sugarbeet acres also fell by 20 percent from 1.43 million acres in 1997 to 1.14 million acres in 2022 (USDA ERS, 2025a). However, there was an 18% increase in sugar produced from sugarbeets during this time, with 4.39 million STRV of sugar produced from sugarbeets in 1997 and 5.19 million STRV of sugar produced from sugarbeets in 2022 (Figure 1). 

These trends indicate that in 1997, the average sugarbeet farm size was 203 acres contributing to final sugar production of 622 STRV (3.06 STRV of sugar per acre). Meanwhile in 2022, the average sugarbeet farm size was 350 acres contributing to final sugar production of 1,593 STRV (4.55 STRV of sugar per acre). Thus, sugarbeet farms have become not only larger (350 acres per farm versus 203 acres per farm), but they have also become 49 percent more efficient! One reason for this increased efficiency is that all sugarbeets grown in the US have been genetically modified since 2009 (Kennedy, Schmitz and Lewis, 2020).

Sugarbeets are currently grown in four regions and 11 states: the Great Lakes (Michigan), the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota), the Great Plains (Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Wyoming), and the Far West (Idaho, Oregon, Washington).^[1] Sugarbeets are grown in rotation with other crops. Historically, sugarbeet yields in the Far West have been highest. Western sugarbeet production typically utilizes irrigation, which is in contrast to the eastern regions of sugarbeet production that do not use irrigation (USDA ERS, 2025a, b). The largest region for sugarbeet production is the Upper Midwest (Minnesota and North Dakota) (USDA ERS, 2025a). The Upper Midwest represented 42 percent of sugarbeet total production in 1997 and represented 53 percent of sugarbeet total production in 2022 (USDA ERS, 2025a). 

Each sugarbeet producing region has experienced both consolidation and increased efficiency over the years. For example, the number of sugarbeet farms in Michigan was 1,164 in 1997 (USDA NASS, 2025). That number decreased 43 percent by 2022 to only 663. However, the number of tons of sugarbeets harvested in 1997 was only 3.0 million, and by 2022 the state harvested 4.1 million tons of sugarbeets. 

Sugarcane

Sugarcane has also experienced consolidation over the period of 1997 through 2022, where the number of sugarcane farms fell by approximately 31 percent from 1,079 in 1997 to 745 in 2022 without experiencing declines in sugar production or acres engaged in sugarcane production. Sugarcane acres actually increased by 3 percent in 2022 (913,738 acres) relative to 1997 (890,193 acres) (USDA NASS, 2025). Production of sugarcane (for sugar) also increased by approximately 11 percent to 4.06 million STRV in 2022 relative to 1997 (3.63 million STRV) (Figure 1). 

These trends indicate that in 1997, the average size of a sugarcane farm was 825 acres and contributed to final sugar production of 3,365 STRV (4.08 STRV of sugar per acre). By 2022, the average sugarcane farm size was 1,226 acres and contributed to final sugar production of 5,454 STRV (4.45 STRV of sugar per acre). Thus, the sugarcane sector has seen improvements in production efficiency of approximately 9 percent over the observed period (1997-2022). 

As recently as 2016, sugarcane was produced in four states (Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Texas). Sugarcane production in Hawaii and Texas ceased in 2016 and 2023, respectively. In Hawaii, rising labor and land cost were contributing factors in the closure of Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Company (HC&S) in Maui. Production in Texas ceased due to water shortages exacerbated by Mexico’s consistent failure to fulfill its treaty obligations to share irrigation water from the Rio Grande. The lack of sugarcane production due to uncertain water availability resulted in the closure of the only sugar mill in the state, Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers, Inc. Since 2017, overall sugarcane production has increased in the remaining sugarcane producing states of Louisiana and Florida, despite closure of the sugarcane industries in Hawaii and Texas. In Florida, the number of farms has actually increased from 152 to 240, with the average farm size contracting from 2,772 to 1,656 acres. However, in Louisiana, farms have decreased from 705 to 420 farms. The average size of a Louisiana farm has increased from 561 to 1,158 acres. 

In Florida, sugarcane is mainly produced in organic soils along the southern and southeastern shore of Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. The decrease in Florida’s sugarcane acreage leading to 2007 reflected conversion of cropland to public water storage in response to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan and reallocation of cropland for sod production in the early 2000’s (VanWeelden et. al., 2023). Sugarcane cultivation on sandy soil is expanding as the expense of citrus cultivation has increased due to citrus greening disease (Sandhu et. al., 2024). 

Sugarcane acreage across Louisiana has been expanding for the past decade, primarily because of the reduced volatility in sugar prices relative to other crops such as corn, rice, and soybeans. (Gautreaux, 2025). Louisiana sugarcane production has also expanded with the development and adoption of high-yielding sugarcane varieties and with the evolution of custom harvesting groups that induce nontraditional producers into sugarcane cultivation by alleviating concerns for those producers regarding increased capitalization costs of purchasing and maintaining specialized sugarcane harvest equipment.

^[1] California is producing sugarbeets in 2025, but the processing facility will close following this crop season (https://www.smbsc.com/ourstory-2/SMBSCMediaReleaseReSpreckelsSugarCompany2025.04.22.pdf).

References

Gautreaux, K. (2025). “Sugarcane expansion moving northward and westward but also increasing in traditional areas.” Louisiana State University AgCenter. https://www.lsuagcenter.com/articles/page1738854832844 . 

Kennedy, P. L., A. Schmitz, and K.L. DeLong. (2020). Biotechnology and demand concerns: the case of genetically modified US sugar beets. AgBioForum, 22(1), 49-60.

Sandhu, H., M. VanWeelden, A. Sharma, and W. Davidson. (2024). CP 03-1912: A Sugarcane Cultivar Expanding on Sand Soil in Florida, University of Florida, IFAS Extension. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/SC111 .  

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS). (2025a). Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables. Group 3 Tables. Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/sugar-and-sweeteners-yearbook-tables

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS). (2025b). Sugar and Sweeteners-Background. Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/sugar-and-sweeteners/background#:~:text=Sugarbeet%20production%20in%20the%20Far,is%20typically%20on%20irrigated%20land. 

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (2025). U.S. Census of Agriculture, Volume 1, Chapter 1: U.S. National Level Data. Retrieved from:  https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2022/index.php . 

VanWeelden, M., C. Kammerer, W. Davidson, M. Baltazar, and R. Rice. (2023). Sugarcane Variety Census: Florida 2022, Sugar Journal 86 (2), July 2023.

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Headline Photo By: Young Stock photos by Vecteezy

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Delberto, Michael, Brian Hilbun, and Karen L. DeLong. “Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production and Farm Trends.” Southern Ag Today 5(26.3). June 25, 2025. Permalink

On May 12, 2025, the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (2025) report which provides the first 2025/26 fiscal year (FY) estimate of United States sugar production. United States domestic sugar production, which consists of sugar extracted from both sugarbeets and sugarcane, is estimated at 9.285 million short tons raw value (STRV) for the 2025/26 FY (USDA WASDE, 2025). Domestic beet sugar production is estimated at 5.180 million STRV, or 56% of total domestic production, and domestic cane sugar production is estimated at 4.105 million STRV, or 44% of total domestic production (Figure 1). 

Total domestic use of sugar is predicted to be 12.355 million STRV which includes estimated domestic sugar production of 9.285 million STRV, U.S. sugar imports of 2.475 million STRV, and net stocks usage (beginning stocks minus ending stocks) of 0.596 million STRV (USDA WASDE, 2025). Thus, net stocks usage plus domestic sugar production is estimated to account for about 80% of the domestic use of sugar.  

The estimated FY 2025/26 domestic sugar production (9.285 million STRV) represents a 26,000 STRV reduction from last year’s total domestic production of 9.311 million STRV (Figure 1). The 2025/26 FY has an estimated slight increase in cane sugar production that is offset by a decrease in beet sugar production, ultimately resulting in the slight year-over-year decrease in overall domestic sugar production. 

Beet sugar production is estimated at 5.180 million STRV, a 154,000 STRV decrease (2.9%) from the year prior. Sugarbeets are produced in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Great Plains, and Far West regions of the country. United States estimated 2025/26 FY sugarbeet planted area (1.104 million acres) is based on the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (2025) March Prospective Plantings report. The estimated harvested area (1.081 million acres) is derived using a 10-year average of harvested-to-planted ratio. The sugarbeet shrink (6.76%) and recovery rate (14.78%) are both projected based on the 10-year national average.

Sugarcane is now produced in only two states- Florida and Louisiana. Cane sugar output is forecast at 4.105 million STRV, up 128,000 STRV (3.2%) from the year prior. Louisiana’s output is projected at 2.088 million STRV, reflecting six consecutive years of increase, and four years of surpassing Florida sugar production. Sugarcane acres in Louisiana have been increasing due to the attractiveness of sugar compared to other alternative crops, availability of custom harvest groups, and acreage expansion northward in the central region of the state. Florida’s cane sugar production is projected at 2.017 million STRV (USDA WASDE, 2025). 

Figure 1. United States sugar production by source, 2016/17 FY through estimated 2025/26 FY.

Like many other agricultural sectors, the sugar sector has faced challenges. Namely, the tightening of operating margins due to rising costs of production (Deliberto and DeLong, 2024a) and flat or falling prices (Deliberto, DeLong, and Fischer, 2024b). This is most evident in the recent closures of sugar processing facilities in several states. Since 2000, roughly 40% of United States sugar mills, refineries, and sugarbeet factories have closed (i.e., 29 closures with 42 remaining open) (American Sugar Alliance, 2025; Louisiana Sugarcane Industry, 2025; Fischer, Outlaw, Raulston, and Herbst, 2022). 

Most recently, there have been three notable closures. In 2023, the Sidney Sugar Company in Montana closed due to falling prices for sugarbeets (Western Ag Network, 2023).  Next in 2024, the Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers, Incorporated ceased operations (Food Business News, 2024). The facility terminated operations due to Mexico’s failure to comply with the provisions of the 1944 Water Treaty between the U.S. and Mexico that governs water sharing between the two nations on the Colorado River and the Lower Rio Grande. Most recently, it was announced that the last remaining sugarbeet processing facility in California will be decommissioned at the end of this season – the Spreckels Sugar Company, Incorporated in Brawley, California (Southern Minnesota Beet Sugar Cooperative, 2025). 

In recent months, U.S. wholesale prices for beet and cane sugar have been falling (USDA Economic Research Service, 2025). Coupled with the rising costs of producing sugarbeets and sugarcane and processing them into sugar, this has created very tight operating margins for sugar producers (Deliberto and DeLong, 2024a). Looking ahead to the next growing season, farmers are optimistic that a new Farm Bill will strengthen the farm safety net and that growing conditions will be favorable for sugarbeets and sugarcane. 

References

American Sugar Alliance. (2025). Sugar’s Coast-to-Coast Reach. Retrieved from: https://sugaralliance.org/us-sugar/sugars-coast-to-coast-reach. 

Deliberto, M., and K.L. DeLong. (2024a). “Examining Sugarcane and Sugarbeet Production Costs.” Southern Ag Today. Retrieved from: https://southernagtoday.org/2023/12/11/examining-sugarcane-and-sugarbeet-production-costs/.

Deliberto, M., K.L. DeLong, and B. Fischer. (2024b). “Analyzing World and U.S. Sugar Price Dynamics.” https://southernagtoday.org/2024/05/20/analyzing-world-and-u-s-sugar-price-dynamics/.  

Fischer, B.L., J.L. Outlaw, J.M. Raulston, and B.K. Herbst. (2022). “Economic Impact of the U.S. Sugar Industry.” Retrieved from: https://sugaralliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sugar-Report.pdf. 

Food Business News. (2024). Retrieved from: https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/25615-last-sugar-cane-grower-in-texas-to-close.

Louisiana Sugarcane Industry. Production Data 1984-2023. Retrieved from: https://amscl.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Production-Data-1984-to-2023.jpg. 

Southern Minnesota Beet Sugar Cooperative. (2025). Southern Minnesota Beet Sugar Cooperative to Decommission Spreckels Sugar Company, Inc. in California. Retrieved from: https://www.smbsc.com/ourstory-2/SMBSCMediaReleaseReSpreckelsSugarCompany2025.04.22.pdf.

USDA Economic Research Service. (2025). World, U.S., and Mexican Sugar and Corn Sweetener Prices. Tables 5 and 5a. Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/sugar-and-sweeteners-yearbook-tables.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (2025). Prospective Plantings. Retrieved from: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/x633f100h. 

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. (2025). Retrieved from: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report.

Western Ag Network. (2023). “Sydney Sugars to Begin Closure Procedures in April.” Retrieved from: https://westernagnetwork.com/sidney-sugars-to-begin-closure-procedures-in-april. 

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Deliberto, Michael, and Karen L. DeLong. “The 2025 Sugar Market Domestic Supply and Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(22.3). May 28, 2025. Permalink

It is critical to consider the relationship between macroeconomic forces and the balance of global sugar supply and demand when examining sugar markets. Global economic expansion, along with a world population that is growing at approximately 1% per year  (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2024), supports strong sugar demand globally, which typically also supports world prices. However, falling energy prices and/or a worldwide recession could push global sugar prices lower. 

The world raw sugar price is somewhat reflected in the Sugar No. 11 futures contract (Figure 1). The Sugar No. 11 contract price does not include the transportation costs associated with delivering sugar to destination ports. As stated in the specifications for the Intercontinental Exchange (2024) Sugar No. 11 futures contract, “the contract prices the physical delivery of raw cane sugar, free-on-board the receiver’s vessel to a port within the country of origin of the sugar.” 

Major sugar-producing countries like Brazil, India, and Thailand provide subsidies and other support for their sugarcane sector, which can have a strong influence on the Sugar No. 11 futures contract price.  This is especially true when production fluctuates due to weather conditions or when governmental policies dictate a diversion of sugar into ethanol production. 

Worldwide sugar deficits have occurred in three out of the last four years. In turn, a tightening global stocks-to-use ratio has supported world sugar prices. As world raw sugar prices have moved upward, so too have U.S. raw sugar prices, which are reflected in the Sugar No. 16 futures contract price (Figure 1). The Sugar No. 16 futures contract does include transportation costs associated with delivering sugar to the destination port and, thus, the contract incorporates physical delivery into its price.

Figure 1. Sugar No. 11 and Sugar No. 16 Futures Contract Prices, their relationship, and the Tier 2 Tariff, 2020 to 2024. Source USDA ERS, 2024.

At present, Mexico’s ability to export sugar to the U.S. is hindered by drought, and Mexican production is expected to be significantly reduced again this year. As such, Mexican sugar exports into the U.S. market are expected be at a decade-and-a-half low at only 497,000 tons, according to the May USDA (2024) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Under the terms of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and several free trade agreements, sugar imports are allowed duty free under a Tariff-rate Quota (TRQ) system. In situations where raw sugar is imported outside of the TRQ, importers must pay a 15.36-cents-per-pound tariff in addition to the world raw sugar price plus transportation costs. This tariff is referred to as a tier-2 sugar import tariff and is shown as the green line in Figure 1. 

The red line in Figure 1 demonstrates the world raw sugar price plus transportation costs to the U.S. plus the tier-2 tariff. If the expected U.S. sugar supply falls and pushes domestic prices up to the point that they exceed that level, higher levels of tier-2 raw sugar will be attracted to the U.S. Thus, the red line represents the effective cap on U.S. raw sugar prices. For example, the existence of substantial demand for sugar beyond what Mexico can supply has resulted in large amounts of tier-2 imports [see Deliberto et al. (2024) for more information]. Those imports will enter the U.S. whenever the price for world sugar plus transportation costs plus the tier-2 tariff (red line, Figure 1) falls below the cost of procuring raw sugar supplies from preferential-access imports or domestic supplies (including Mexican production). Again, that relationship effectively caps the wholesale price of domestic raw sugar in the U.S. (red line, Figure 1).  

Conversely, if supply was expected to rise relative to demand in the U.S. (e.g., due to higher-than-expected domestic production or imports from Mexico) then the demand for tier-2 sugar would fall, bringing domestic prices further below the tier-2 cap. But, so long as demand for tier-2 sugar exceeds zero, the price in the U.S. for raw sugar will be driven by world prices plus transportation costs plus the tier-2 tariff of 15.36 cents per pound (red line, Figure 1). It should be noted that the figure depicts monthly prices as well as a static assumption of transportation costs of five cents per pound. There have been significant amounts of tier-2 sugar entering the U.S. over the past several years, which likely represents arbitrage opportunities to bring in tier-2 raw sugar due to pricing relationships or transportation cost adjustments that are occurring on a daily basis.

We observe that the same relationship frames the prices for wholesale refined sugar in the U.S., which is capped at the world price, or the Sugar No. 5 futures contract price for refined sugar plus the tier-2 refined tariff (16.21 cents per pound) plus transportation costs of shipping refined sugar to the U.S. With falling world refined prices coupled with the expectation of near-record high sugarbeet production, the U.S. wholesale refined sugar price has recently followed the world Sugar No. 5 price downwards. Midwest refined beet sugar spot prices have ranged between 55 to 58 cents per pound. When pricing the 2024 expected crop, refined sugar prices have held steady in the 53 to 55 cent range, which is considerably lower than prices in the prior 18 months that reached as high as 70 cents per pound. 

Overall, raw and refined sugar prices in the U.S. are currently driven by transportation costs associated with shipping bulk raw sugar and containerized refined sugar to the U.S., and factors that are affecting the global sugar market. Those factors include, among others, foreign subsidies [e.g., World Trade Organization (2024)], demand for ethanol as a transportation fuel [e.g., Bloomberg (2024)], and global growing conditions for sugarbeets and sugarcane crops [e.g., USDA FAS (2024)].

References

Bloomberg. 2024. Tereos Brazil to Keep High Sugar Output as Peers Endure Drought. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/tereos-brazil-to-keep-high-sugar-output-as-peers-endure-drought

Deliberto, M., K.L. DeLong, and B. Fischer. “Navigating U.S. Sugar Imports From 70 Countries.” Retrieved from: https://southernagtoday.org/2024/04/18/navigating-us-sugar-imports-from-70-countries/

Intercontinental Exchange. 2024. Sugar No. 11 Futures. https://www.ice.com/products/23/Sugar-No-11-Futures  Date accessed: May 3, 2024.

USDA. 2024. May WASDE. Retrieved from: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde

USDA ERS. 2024. “Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables.” Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/sugar-and-sweeteners-yearbook-tables/ Date updated: April 2, 2024. Date accessed: April 18, 2024. 

USDA FAS. 2024. Global Agricultural Information Network: Sugar Annual. Retrieved from: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Sugar%20Annual_Managua_Nicaragua_NU2024-0002.pdf

U.S. Department of Commerce. 2024. “Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day.” Retrieved from: https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2024/01/census-bureau-projects-us-and-world-populations-new-years-day#:~:text=The%20projected%20world%20population%20on,the%20U.S.%20and%20world%20populations. Date updated: January 3, 2024. Date accessed: April 18, 2024. 

World Trade Organization. 2024. India’s Measures to Provide Market Price Support to Sugarcane. Retrieved from: https://web.wtocenter.org.tw/downFiles/12294/398060/00k37djfolGb0l5OnjSaA8xFnrwmAEQAiLp0Y7SoysK00000tZTwiAmB3qaIG9YFD0000073wLiCTUqy9oiKW087r8sHXz4A==

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Deliberto, Michael, Karen L. DeLong, and Bart L. Fischer. “Analyzing World and U.S. Sugar Price Dynamics.” Southern Ag Today 4(21.1). May 20, 2024. Permalink

The domestic production of sugar in the United States (U.S.) originates from sugarcane harvested in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas and sugarbeets harvested across the Upper Midwest, Central Plains, Mountain states, Pacific Northwest, and California. Sugarcane is harvested from October to March and sugarbeets are harvested in the late summer through fall, except for California where sugarbeets are harvested in the spring through the summer. Earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted a record domestic sugar crop for fiscal year (FY) 2023/24, which is from October 2023 to September 2024. The USDA later lowered its FY 2023/24 forecast to 9.24 million short tons raw value (STRV) of sugar (Figure 1) because of unseasonably warm weather in the Upper Midwest and a severe drought in Louisiana and Texas (USDA, 2024b). 

U.S. beet sugar production for FY 2023/24 is now estimated at 5.17 million STRV, which is consistent with previous FYs (Figure 1). In earlier USDA reports, the beet sugar production forecast was as high as 5.41 million STRV, but unseasonably warm temperatures in the Red River Valley during the months of December and February led to a portion of sugarbeet piles having to be discarded due to spoilage. This contributed to increased beet shrink, which rose from 7.88% in February to 9.00% in March, and decreased sucrose extraction which fell from 15.26% to 15.02% month-over-month (USDA, 2024c). As a result, USDA lowered projections of beet sugar production this year, from 5.41 million STRV in January to 5.17 million STRV in March (a reduction of almost 240,000 tons in two months).

U.S. cane sugar production for FY 2023/24 is estimated at 4.07 million STRV. This would be the highest level of cane sugar production since FY 2019/20. Increases from the state of Florida and a better-than-expected crop in Louisiana (which was hard hit by drought during the growing season) contributed to FY 2023/24’s production eclipsing last year’s level. Prior to the onset of drought conditions in Louisiana, the state was poised to post its third consecutive year of strong, record setting production, overtaking Florida for two consecutive years for the first time. However, current estimates of cane sugar production from Louisiana are down about 65,194 tons from last year’s production to 1.94 million tons.

Figure 1. U.S. Beet and Cane Sugar Production.

Lastly, the lack of both rainfall and irrigation water for agricultural producers in the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas over the past several years has caused cane sugar production from Texas to fall from as much as 169,000 STRV in 2017 to as few as 40,000 STRV this year. In February, the Board of Directors from the Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers announced that this would be the last year of cane sugar production in Texas. Given the uncertainty regarding the administration of the 1944 Water Treaty between Mexico and the U.S., which governs water sharing on both the Colorado River as well as the Lower Rio Grande, growers could not count on irrigation water supply, making purchasing crop insurance uncertain and making necessary investments into the sugar mill and farming operations too risky (USDA, 2024c; San Antonio Express News, 2024). 

In total, U.S. sugar production in FY 2023/24 is estimated to be 9.24 million STRV, which would be the third largest crop behind FY 2017/18 (9.29 million STRV) and last year’s crop (9.25 million STRV). With expected domestic demand of 12.6 million STRV and some exports going to Mexico, total use is projected at 12.7 million STRV (USDA, 2024a) which would, suggest ending stocks of 1.7 million STRV, and a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.4%, all else being equal. On average, the USDA’s estimates of ending stocks-to-use have been low in March relative to the final estimate in December by 1.2% over the past six years, suggesting a final stocks-to-use of approximately 14.6%, and ending stocks of 1.85 million STRV, or 3.7 billion pounds of sugar.

            Even though U.S. sugar producers have seen their input costs rise by more than 30% since the last Farm Bill (Deliberto and DeLong, 2023), the U.S. is still the fifth largest producer of sugar in the world producing more than 9 million STRV of sugar (USDA, 2024d). 

With 12.5 million STRV of sugar consumption, the U.S. is also the third largest importer of sugar in the world (USDA, 2024d). How these dynamics interact with sugar markets and sugar policy will be addressed in a future Southern Ag Today article.

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References

Deliberto, M and K.L. DeLong. “Examining Sugarcane and Sugarbeet Production Costs.” Southern Ag Today 3(50.1). December 11, 2023. https://southernagtoday.org/2023/12/11/examining-sugarcane-and-sugarbeet-production-costs/

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2024a. World Agricultural Supply and 

Demand Estimates. Retrieved from: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde

USDA. 2024b. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Retrieved from: 

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0324.pdf

USDA. 2024c. Economic Research Service. Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook. Retrieved from: 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/108800/sss-m-427.pdf?v=1130.6

USDA. 2024d. Foreign Agricultural Service. Sugar: World Markets and Trade. Retrieved from: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf

San Antonio Express News. 2024. Texas’ Last Known Sugar Mill Shuts Down in Rio Grande 

Valley, Citing Water Issues with Mexico. Retrieved from: 

https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/texas-sugar-mill-closes-cites-water-issues-mexico-18687760.php

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Deliberto, Michael, and Karen L. DeLong. “The 2024 Sugar Market Domestic Supply and Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 4(14.1). April 1, 2024. Permalink