Author: Michael Deliberto

Authors: Michael Deliberto, Associate Professor and Louisiana Farm Bureau Endowed Professor in Agricultural Policy, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University Ag Center. Karen L. DeLong, Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Introduction

Industry experts are projecting supply uncertainty for the beet and cane sugar crops for fiscal year (FY) 2026/27. The primary contributing factors to this uncertainty include drought-related reductions in sugarbeet planted acreage, relatively low sugar prices, high input costs, and uncertainty about sugar demand, potentially stemming from the growing popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. While the lower beet sugar production was anticipated because of reduced planted acreage, increased cane sugar production from expanded sugarcane acreage may only partially offset the decline because of a new infestation of pasture mealybug that is affecting the southern U.S. sugarcane crop (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Planted Acres Reported to the USDA Farm Service Agency for U.S. Sugarbeets and Sugarcane, 2009-2026. Source: USDA Farm Service Agency (2026a).

Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production

According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) August 2026 Crop Production report, the 2026 harvested sugarbeet area is projected at 1.008 million acres, the third lowest in 45 years. The projected sugarbeet harvested area was reduced for five of the 10 sugarbeet-producing states, with the largest declines being in Idaho and North Dakota (USDA NASS, 2026). According to the USDA Farm Service Agency (2026a), prevented-planted sugarbeet acreage totals 30,560 acres and failed acreage is projected at 2,861 acres for a combined total of 33,421 acres (3.33% of total sugarbeet planted area), which is the largest amount on record (Figure 2).[1] The majority of the prevented-planted acreage was located in Nebraska (13,042 acres), Idaho (6,890 acres), Colorado (5,503 acres), and Wyoming (4,444 acres). In many of those regions, reduced snowfall depleted irrigation supplies that would normally be used to irrigate sugarbeets (Nebraska Public Media, 2026). In addition to the poor spring planting conditions, the August U.S. Agriculture in Drought report states that 59% of sugarbeet production is in areas experiencing drought, compared with 55% the previous week and 32% during the same period last year (USDA, 2026).

Figure 2. Prevented and Failed U.S. Sugarbeet Acreage Reported to the USDA Farm Service Agency, 2009-2026. Source: USDA Farm Service Agency (2026a).

USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) (2026) projects U.S. FY 2026/27 beet sugar production at 4.769 million short tons raw value (STRV), reflecting two consecutive years of decline (down 307,000 STRV year-over-year) and the lowest beet sugar output since FY 2019/20. U.S. cane sugar output is projected at 4.071 million STRV, 3% lower than the record FY 2025/26 sugarcane crop.

Sugarcane processors in Florida have indicated negative impacts on the sugarcane crop from pasture mealybug infestation. In addition, all of Florida’s sugarcane production is in areas experiencing drought, according to the August U.S. Agriculture in Drought report (USDA, 2026). Much of the crop was also affected by a historic freeze in February, which may have affected the rootstock (Hudson, 2026). While none of Louisiana’s sugarcane-producing areas are currently experiencing drought, mealybug infestation is present, and potential impacts are still being assessed. Louisiana FY 2026/27 cane sugar production is now projected at a new record high of 2.266 million STRV, marking the fifth year that Louisiana has surpassed Florida’s production and its seventh consecutive year of growth.

Given the challenges associated both with drought and pasture mealybug, USDA revised its projections for the FY 2026/27 U.S. cane sugar production downward by 0.6% in the August 2026 WASDE, to 4.159 million STRV.

Sugar Imports

For FY 2026/27, U.S. sugar imports are projected at 3.582 million STRV, about 740,000 STRV or 26% higher than the revised FY 2025/26 estimate (Figure 3) (USDA WASDE, 2026). The increase largely reflects a sharp adjustment to imports of Mexican sugar, which are projected at 1.346 million short tons, unchanged from July but more than 500% higher than the 220,000 short tons forecast for the current year. However, the levels of over-quota (Tier-2) sugar imports are still expected to increase the total U.S. sugar supply.

The U.S. produced a record volume of sugar in FY 2024/25, and projections call for record cane sugar production for FY 2025/26 and near-record cane sugar output in FY 2026/27. At the same time, historically large volumes of Tier-2 (over-quota) sugar have entered the U.S. market as low global sugar prices make it profitable for traders (even with applicable duties) to import and sell sugar competitively in the U.S. market. Annual Tier-2 sugar imports generally remained below 100,000 STRV for nearly two decades before exceeding 200,000 STRV in FY 2019/20 and surging to approximately 1.2 million STRV in FY 2023/24, as reported in our previous Southern Ag Today article (https://southernagtoday.org/2026/04/23/how-to-ensure-a-domestic-sugar-industry-increase-the-tier-2-sugar-tariff/).

Figure 3. U.S. Sugar Imports, by Source, FY 2022/23-FY 2026/27.

Although Tier-2 sugar imports may decline this year, they remain historically elevated. With continued low world sugar prices, Tier-2 sugar imports are likely to continue to enter the U.S. at high levels, boosting overall U.S. sugar supplies. Those additional imports of low-priced world sugar will likely continue to limit domestic sugar price increases that would otherwise help domestic sugar farmers offset inflation-driven increases in input costs.

[1] The USDA Risk Management Agency (2026) defines prevented planting as “the failure to plant an insured crop with the proper equipment by the final planting date or late planting period, if applicable. To qualify, you must be prevented from planting by an insured cause of loss that is general to the surrounding area and that prevents other producers from planting acreage with similar characteristics.”  The USDA Farm Service Agency (2026b) definition of failed acreage is “acreage that was timely planted with the intent to harvest, but because of disaster related conditions, the crop failed before it could be brought to harvest.”

References

Hudson, L. 2026. “Florida’s February Freeze: The $3 Billion Cold Shock to the State’s Crops.” Retrieved from: https://www.wusf.org/weather/2026-03-06/floridas-february-freeze-the-3-billion-cold-shock-to-the-states-crops

Nebraska Public Media. 2026. Drought Could Reduce Nebraska Sugar Beet Crop by One-Third. Retrieved from: https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/drought-could-reduce-nebraska-sugar-beet-crop-by-one-third/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

USDA. 2026. U.S. Drought Monitor. Retrieved from: www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/AgInDrought.pdf

USDA Farm Service Agency. 2026a. Crop Acreage Data. Retrieved from: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/tools/informational/freedom-information-act-foia/electronic-reading-room/frequently-requested/crop-acreage-data

USDA Farm Service Agency. 2026b. Acreage and Compliance Determinations. Retrieved from: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/2-cp.pdf

USDA NASS. 2026. August 12, 2026, Crop Production Report. Retrieved from: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production

USDA Risk Management Agency. 2026. Prevented Planting Insurance Provisions-Drought. Retrieved from: https://www.rma.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/Prevented-Planting-Insurance-Provisions-Drought-Fact-Sheet.pdf

USDA WASDE. 2026. WASDE Report. Retrieved from: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report

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Recommended citation format: Deliberto, Michael, and Karen L. DeLong. “An Update of the United States Sugarcane and Sugarbeet Crops.” Southern Ag Today 6(39.3). September 23, 2026. Permalink

The USDA released its first supply and use estimates for 2026/27 on May 12^th.  For 2026/27, USDA estimates that domestic beet and cane sugar production will total 8.810 million short tons, raw value (STRV). If realized, this nearly 5% reduction would be the lowest domestic production level in more than a half decade (Figure 1). The June WASDE report will reflect the first yield/production survey forecasts for 2026/27, with some in the industry expecting the estimate to be up from the May report. 

Beet sugar production (~55% of U.S. sugar production) is estimated to reach 4.722 million STRV, its lowest level since the freeze-damaged crop of 2019/20. This represents a year-over-year decrease of 300,000 STRV due to a reduction in planted beet area and lower yields based on delays in springtime planting across the entire beet-production region. 

Cane sugar production is expected to total 4.088 million STRV, which, like beet sugar, would amount to its lowest output since 2022/23.  This represents a year-over-year decrease of 130,000 STRV. While Louisiana’s cane sugar crop is forecasted at 2.146 million STRV, down 86,000 year-over-year, production in the state is still expected to continue the trend of expanding acres. Yields are expected to track the five-year average following last year’s record yields and sugar recovery rate. Florida’s cane sugar production is forecast at 1.942 million STRV, a yearly decrease of 44,000 STRV as the February freeze inhibited early growth on sugarcane planted the preceding fall.  

Figure 1. Historical U.S. sugar production (1,000 STRV). USDA-ERS. 

Imports for 2026/27 are initially estimated at 3.260 million STRV, which equates to a 23% increase from the year prior. This threshold is the result of minimum commitment levels of World Trade Organization (WTO) raw sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) of 1.137 million STRV, WTO refined sugar quotas of 24,251 STRV, free trade agreement (FTA) TRQs of 260,777 STRV, and imports from Mexico. Based on calculations as stipulated in the 2014 U.S.-Mexico Suspension Agreements, U.S. imports from Mexico currently are estimated at 1.046 million STRV. This would be an increase from the 220,000 STRV supplied by Mexico last year and double the 504,000 STRV imported in 2024/25. Based on the stocks-to-use ratio, the Suspension Agreements with Mexico will determine the quota for Mexico in July, September, December, and March.  High-tier duty sugar (refined and specialty refined) imports are initially set at 466,000 STRV. USDA sets 2026/27 high-tier raw sugar imports initially at zero.  As high-tier raw sugar imports are observed entering U.S. ports, they will then be reflected in the balance sheet. For 2025/26, a total of 299,000 STRV of high-tier raw sugar imports have entered the country as of the May WASDE with another 100,000 STRV expected in the second half of the fiscal year (Figures 2 and 3). The amount of high-tier imports landed will have a proportional impact on the import quota from Mexico. As the amount of high-tier imports is increased, the import quota level from Mexico is reduced. 

Figure 2. Estimated U.S. sugar imports (1,000 STRV) for 2026/27. USDA ERS. 

Figure 3. Historical U.S. sugar imports, by source. USDA ERS. 

There is uncertainty with U.S. sugar demand as inflationary pressures, an overall reduction in food and beverage consumption (due to the adoption of glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs (GLP-1)), and changes in food consumption recommendations weigh on the market. The demand estimate of 12.259 million STRV is unchanged from the prior year’s estimate. However, there is a declining multi-year trend in sugar for food consumption from the high reached in 2022/23 (12.473 M STRV). 

Looking to the global sugar market, for the 2025/26 crop year, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its forecast for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus volume thus indicating an adequately supplied market. As such, the #11 world raw sugar futures price has declined from a high of 27.31 cents per pound in November 2025 to 14.05 cents per pound in April 2026. 

Domestically, the U.S. #16 raw sugar futures contract has averaged 32.97 cents per pound from January to April. The Midwest refined beet spot price has averaged 41.67 cents per pound over the same period. Although the #16 raw sugar price has declined since last September to end the fiscal year prior, a record cane harvest in Louisiana acted to moderate prices. Coupled with flat U.S. sugar demand, #16 raw futures decreased from 36.06 cents per pound in September 2025 to a low of 32.14 in February 2026. However, raw sugar prices have begun to increase to 34.81 cents per pound in April. Midwest refined beet spot prices have also moderated since September (38 cents) to 42.00 cents per pound in April. The anticipation of reduced domestic sugar production is seen as supportive for U.S. prices (Figure 4). 

Figure 4. Midwest refined beet sport price, #16 U.S. raw sugar futures price, and #11 world raw sugar futures price, January 2024 to April 2026. USDA ERS. 

Prior to the Middle East conflict that began in March, world raw sugar prices were already starting a downward trend, settling under 15 cents per pound. While other commodities like corn, soybeans, and cotton have showed gains resulting from the conflict amid the rally in crude oil prices and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, world raw sugar prices continued to be suppressed from the available surplus. However, the #11 futures market was not entirely absent of gains as resulting support from the energy complex provided spillover support to prices. Sustaining that support has been challenging. U.S. sugar producers are not immune from the challenges faced by other agriculture producers such as rising input costs and falling commodity prices. While pressure continues to mount for the industry, USDA announced $150 million in assistance to sugar beet and sugarcane producers in response to temporary market disruptions and increased production and processing costs. This assistance was designed to ensure producers have the financial stability needed to continue operations and plan for the upcoming crop year.

Looking forward to 2026/27, the ISO forecasts a deficit of global sugar due to potential impacts on sugar cane crops from a developing El Niño weather system and the expectation that more sugar cane crush will be diverted into ethanol production away from sugar production (which should raise the #11 world raw price). As the #11 world raw price increases, the U.S. #16 futures will tend to follow suit. 

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Deliberto, Michael. “Sugar Market Outlook.“ Southern Ag Today 6(24.3). June 10, 2026. Permalink

Like many other agricultural sectors, there has been consolidation in United States (US) farm-level sugar production. Sugar is a unique commodity because about 56 percent of the domestic production of sugar originates from sugarbeets and 44 percent originates from sugarcane. The US domestic production of sugar has increased from 8.02 million short tons raw value (STRV) in 1997 to 9.31 million STRV in 2024, an increase of 16% (USDA ERS, 2025a). However, there are now 50 percent fewer sugarbeet and sugarcane farms in the country. 

In 1997, the USDA Census of Agriculture recorded a total of 8,136 sugarbeet and sugarcane producing farms (USDA NASS, 2025). However, by 2022 that number had declined to 4,002, a decrease of over 50 percent. Figure 1 shows sugarbeet and sugarcane production from 1997 through 2024 and the number of sugarbeet and sugarcane farms recorded by the US Census of Agriculture every five years, beginning in 1997. 

Figure 1. Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production and Farms. 

Sugarbeets

From 1997 through 2022, while there was a decrease in sugarbeet farms and sugarbeet harvested acres, there was an increase in the amount of sugar produced from sugarbeets. The number of sugarbeet farms fell by 54 percent, from 7,057 farms in 1997 to only 3,257 in 2022 (Figure 1). Sugarbeet acres also fell by 20 percent from 1.43 million acres in 1997 to 1.14 million acres in 2022 (USDA ERS, 2025a). However, there was an 18% increase in sugar produced from sugarbeets during this time, with 4.39 million STRV of sugar produced from sugarbeets in 1997 and 5.19 million STRV of sugar produced from sugarbeets in 2022 (Figure 1). 

These trends indicate that in 1997, the average sugarbeet farm size was 203 acres contributing to final sugar production of 622 STRV (3.06 STRV of sugar per acre). Meanwhile in 2022, the average sugarbeet farm size was 350 acres contributing to final sugar production of 1,593 STRV (4.55 STRV of sugar per acre). Thus, sugarbeet farms have become not only larger (350 acres per farm versus 203 acres per farm), but they have also become 49 percent more efficient! One reason for this increased efficiency is that all sugarbeets grown in the US have been genetically modified since 2009 (Kennedy, Schmitz and Lewis, 2020).

Sugarbeets are currently grown in four regions and 11 states: the Great Lakes (Michigan), the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota), the Great Plains (Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Wyoming), and the Far West (Idaho, Oregon, Washington).^[1] Sugarbeets are grown in rotation with other crops. Historically, sugarbeet yields in the Far West have been highest. Western sugarbeet production typically utilizes irrigation, which is in contrast to the eastern regions of sugarbeet production that do not use irrigation (USDA ERS, 2025a, b). The largest region for sugarbeet production is the Upper Midwest (Minnesota and North Dakota) (USDA ERS, 2025a). The Upper Midwest represented 42 percent of sugarbeet total production in 1997 and represented 53 percent of sugarbeet total production in 2022 (USDA ERS, 2025a). 

Each sugarbeet producing region has experienced both consolidation and increased efficiency over the years. For example, the number of sugarbeet farms in Michigan was 1,164 in 1997 (USDA NASS, 2025). That number decreased 43 percent by 2022 to only 663. However, the number of tons of sugarbeets harvested in 1997 was only 3.0 million, and by 2022 the state harvested 4.1 million tons of sugarbeets. 

Sugarcane

Sugarcane has also experienced consolidation over the period of 1997 through 2022, where the number of sugarcane farms fell by approximately 31 percent from 1,079 in 1997 to 745 in 2022 without experiencing declines in sugar production or acres engaged in sugarcane production. Sugarcane acres actually increased by 3 percent in 2022 (913,738 acres) relative to 1997 (890,193 acres) (USDA NASS, 2025). Production of sugarcane (for sugar) also increased by approximately 11 percent to 4.06 million STRV in 2022 relative to 1997 (3.63 million STRV) (Figure 1). 

These trends indicate that in 1997, the average size of a sugarcane farm was 825 acres and contributed to final sugar production of 3,365 STRV (4.08 STRV of sugar per acre). By 2022, the average sugarcane farm size was 1,226 acres and contributed to final sugar production of 5,454 STRV (4.45 STRV of sugar per acre). Thus, the sugarcane sector has seen improvements in production efficiency of approximately 9 percent over the observed period (1997-2022). 

As recently as 2016, sugarcane was produced in four states (Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Texas). Sugarcane production in Hawaii and Texas ceased in 2016 and 2023, respectively. In Hawaii, rising labor and land cost were contributing factors in the closure of Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Company (HC&S) in Maui. Production in Texas ceased due to water shortages exacerbated by Mexico’s consistent failure to fulfill its treaty obligations to share irrigation water from the Rio Grande. The lack of sugarcane production due to uncertain water availability resulted in the closure of the only sugar mill in the state, Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers, Inc. Since 2017, overall sugarcane production has increased in the remaining sugarcane producing states of Louisiana and Florida, despite closure of the sugarcane industries in Hawaii and Texas. In Florida, the number of farms has actually increased from 152 to 240, with the average farm size contracting from 2,772 to 1,656 acres. However, in Louisiana, farms have decreased from 705 to 420 farms. The average size of a Louisiana farm has increased from 561 to 1,158 acres. 

In Florida, sugarcane is mainly produced in organic soils along the southern and southeastern shore of Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. The decrease in Florida’s sugarcane acreage leading to 2007 reflected conversion of cropland to public water storage in response to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan and reallocation of cropland for sod production in the early 2000’s (VanWeelden et. al., 2023). Sugarcane cultivation on sandy soil is expanding as the expense of citrus cultivation has increased due to citrus greening disease (Sandhu et. al., 2024). 

Sugarcane acreage across Louisiana has been expanding for the past decade, primarily because of the reduced volatility in sugar prices relative to other crops such as corn, rice, and soybeans. (Gautreaux, 2025). Louisiana sugarcane production has also expanded with the development and adoption of high-yielding sugarcane varieties and with the evolution of custom harvesting groups that induce nontraditional producers into sugarcane cultivation by alleviating concerns for those producers regarding increased capitalization costs of purchasing and maintaining specialized sugarcane harvest equipment.

^[1] California is producing sugarbeets in 2025, but the processing facility will close following this crop season (https://www.smbsc.com/ourstory-2/SMBSCMediaReleaseReSpreckelsSugarCompany2025.04.22.pdf).

References

Gautreaux, K. (2025). “Sugarcane expansion moving northward and westward but also increasing in traditional areas.” Louisiana State University AgCenter. https://www.lsuagcenter.com/articles/page1738854832844 . 

Kennedy, P. L., A. Schmitz, and K.L. DeLong. (2020). Biotechnology and demand concerns: the case of genetically modified US sugar beets. AgBioForum, 22(1), 49-60.

Sandhu, H., M. VanWeelden, A. Sharma, and W. Davidson. (2024). CP 03-1912: A Sugarcane Cultivar Expanding on Sand Soil in Florida, University of Florida, IFAS Extension. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/SC111 .  

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS). (2025a). Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables. Group 3 Tables. Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/sugar-and-sweeteners-yearbook-tables

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS). (2025b). Sugar and Sweeteners-Background. Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/sugar-and-sweeteners/background#:~:text=Sugarbeet%20production%20in%20the%20Far,is%20typically%20on%20irrigated%20land. 

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (2025). U.S. Census of Agriculture, Volume 1, Chapter 1: U.S. National Level Data. Retrieved from:  https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2022/index.php . 

VanWeelden, M., C. Kammerer, W. Davidson, M. Baltazar, and R. Rice. (2023). Sugarcane Variety Census: Florida 2022, Sugar Journal 86 (2), July 2023.

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Headline Photo By: Young Stock photos by Vecteezy

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Delberto, Michael, Brian Hilbun, and Karen L. DeLong. “Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production and Farm Trends.” Southern Ag Today 5(26.3). June 25, 2025. Permalink