Southern Ag Today

Author: Nathan Smith

  • Is Shelled Use of Primary Peanut Products Softening?

    Is Shelled Use of Primary Peanut Products Softening?

    The National Peanut Board recently reported that per capita peanut consumption in the U.S. reached an all-time high of 7.9 pounds in 2021 (National Peanut Board, 2021). This is an increase from a record 7.6 pounds per capita in 2020.  Peanut consumption has increased domestically since the beginning of the pandemic led by peanut butter use.  The industry faced challenges of restocking grocery shelves after shoppers emptied them of peanut butter.  The JM Smucker Company reported 7.1% growth in peanut butter consumption in 2020 (JM Smucker Co., 2021). The growth was due to increased consumers working and schooling at home and an increased demand from food banks.  Peanut butter usage on a shelled raw basis was up 2.7% from August 2020 to July 2021 according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (2021).  This was above the six-year average of 1.93%.  Peanut butter makes up 58.9% of total shelled usage followed by snacks at 20.6%, candy at 17.6% and other uses at 2.95%.

    Figure 1. Shelled Peanut Use (Raw Basis) of Primary Peanut Products, 2015-2020 Marketing Years.

    Source: USDA/NASS. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/02870v87z?locale=en

    The trends for shelled peanuts used domestically in primary peanut products is shown in Figure 1.  Peanut butter has increased at a rate of 1.9% over the last six years and averaged 2.6% since 2017.  Candy usage has grown at a rate of 2.5% over the last six years and averaged 3.5% since 2017.  Snack usage has remained flat over the same time period.  What about the 2021 crop marketing year beginning August 1, 2021?  The latest data shows usage for the first three months of the marketing year to be below last year by 2.9%.  Peanut butter usage is down 4.3%, candy up 2.7% and snacks down 5.7%.  The data suggest there might be a softening of shelled peanut usage.  The first three months of the marketing year represent old crop peanuts and a larger 2021 crop should start having an impact as we enter 2022.   Consumers have returned to the workplace and children are back in school.  Time will tell if shelled peanut domestic use has softened or if logistic challenges are impacting reporting. 

    Citations:

    JM Smucker Co., (2021) “Peanut Butter and Jelly: The Ultimate Pandemic Comfort Foods”  Press Release.  December 17, 2020. https://www.jmsmucker.com/news-stories/stories/22876.

    National Peanut Board, (2021) “Peanut Per Capita Consumption Breaks New Record for Second Year in a Row” Press Release. October 21, 2021,https://www.nationalpeanutboard.org/news/peanut-per-capita-consumption-breaks-new-record-for-second-year-in-row.htm. 

    USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, (2021) “Peanut Stocks and Processing” ISSN: 1949-1875, August 27, 2021, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/02870v87z/41688g448/9593vt44b/pnst0821.pdf. 

    Smith, Nathan. “Is Shelled Use of Primary Peanut Products Softening?“. Southern Ag Today 2(2.1). January 3, 2022. Permalink

  • Enrolled Base Acres Share of the ARC-CO and PLC Program by Crop

    Enrolled Base Acres Share of the ARC-CO and PLC Program by Crop

    A total of 246,601,268 base acres were enrolled in the U.S. in 2021 across 23 covered commodities (Outlaw, Raulston, 2021). The enrolled base acres for the Farm Bill support programs, Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC), total 244,109,500 for the 2021 program year. The remaining 2,496,768 base acres are enrolled in Agricultural Risk Coverage Individual Coverage (ARC-IC). Price Loss Coverage has the highest share of enrolled base acres at 56.7% followed by ARC-CO at 42.3% and ARC-IC at 1%. The Southern Region (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia) account for 50,459,856 acres, or 20.6%, of the U.S. total acreage enrolled in PLC, ARC-CO and ARC-IC programs. The share of base acres enrolled by program for the 2021 crop year is 56.7% PLC, 42.3% ARC-CO, and 1.0% ARC-IC.   

    The share of base acres enrolled in 2021 between ARC-CO and PLC is shown in Table 1. The crop with highest percentage of base acres enrolled in ARC-CO for the U.S. is soybeans at 87.2%. The next closest crop in terms of share is corn at 48.4%. The crops with the highest percentage enrolled in PLC is long grain rice at 99.8% followed by peanuts at 99.7%, seed cotton at 91.2%, and grain sorghum at 73.75%. 

    Table 1. Share of Enrolled Base Acres by Crop for the 2021 Program Year.

    2021 ARC-CO vs. PLC

     13 Southern States ARC-CO %U.S. ARC-CO %13 Southern States PLC %U.S. PLC %
    Corn50.4%48.4%49.6%51.6%
    Grain Sorghum24.1%26.4%75.9%73.8%
    Peanuts0.17%0.26%99.8%99.7%
    Rice (Long Grain)0.05%0.16%99.9%99.8%
    Seed Cotton09.2%08.8%90.8%91.2%
    Soybeans86.8%87.2%13.2%12.8%
    Wheat14.3%16.85%85.7%83.3%
    Source: USDA/FSA. Available at: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/arcplc-program-data/index

    The seven major program crops shown in Table 1 account for 98.7% of total base acres enrolled in the South according to Outlaw and Raulston. The three southern crops of long grain rice, peanuts, and seed cotton range from 90% to 99% enrolled in PLC and drive the U.S. total. Comparing the South to the U.S. for the other four crops shows the South trends with the U.S. in the share of ARC-CO and PLC enrolled base acres. The biggest differences are two percentage points higher in the South for corn ARC-CO, grain sorghum PLC, and wheat PLC. The 2018 Farm Bill allows farm operators to make program election changes in crop years 2021, 2022, and 2023 for ARC-CO and PLC. 

    Citations:

    Outlaw, Joe, and J. Marc Raulston. “Southern States Share of Major Crop Bases.” Southern Ag Today 1(45.4). November 4, 2021. Permalink

    Smith, Nathan, and Trey Bucklew. “Enrolled Base Acres Share of ARC-CO and PLC Program by Crop.” Southern Ag Today 1(47.4). November 18, 2021. Permalink