Author: Nathan Smith

The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Thursday, April 10, made a few updates to the 2024/25 balance sheets for major row crops that were generally minor adjustments to old crop estimates for the United States (U.S.).  The Crop Production report was also released on April 10^thwith no new data reported for row crops.  Thus, the adjustments in the WASDE report were made on the use side of the balance sheet.  The U.S. corn balance sheet was viewed as the most bullish with a sizable increase in the export forecast of 100 million bushels due to strong sales. The increase was partially offset by a 25-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual use due to slower disappearance, as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report.  The net effect was ending stocks adjusted down 75 million bushels from March to 1.5 billion bushels, while and the season-average corn price was left unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.   The futures market responded on April 10 with a 9-cent increase in nearby futures to $4.82 per bushel. 

Soybeans saw U.S. ending stocks tighten up a little bit with an increase in crush of 10 million bushels due to higher meal domestic use and oil exports. Imports of soybean oil were adjusted up 5 million bushels resulting in a net increase in ending stocks of 5 million bushels. The season average price for soybeans remained unchanged at $9.95 per bushel.  Nearby soybean futures increased $0.16 per bushel closing at  $10.29 per bushel on April 10, continuing a rally after the initial shock of the April 4 tariff announcement. 

The global rice market is experiencing increased production due to India’s consecutive record crops, surpassing China as the largest world rice producer.  U.S. exports were adjusted down due mainly to medium grain export reduction, while the average season price stayed the same at $15.60 per cwt.   

Cotton and wheat saw the most bearish adjustments to their balance sheets.  Lower sales of hard red wheat led to a decrease in U.S. wheat exports by 15 million bushels, while imports increased by 10 million bushels.  Wheat ending stocks were lowered by 27 million bushels, but the average price stayed the same at $5.50 per bushel. Nearby futures dropped 5 cents to $5.38 per bushel on April 10.  The only change made to U.S. cotton was the export forecast being lowered by 100,000 bales.  However, if realized, the reduced exports would result in the largest ending stocks since 2008 other than the 2019 crop when a large crop and a drop in domestic mill use led to 7.45 million bales in ending stocks.  The season average price for cotton remained at $0.63 per pound. Nearby cotton futures rallied back to $0.66 per pound before the WASDE report and did not move much immediately after the WASDE report was released.  

The market appears to be reacting to the uncertainty of tariffs and potential planted acres.  The USDA will shift its focus from old crop to new crop in the May WASDE report with new 2025/26 supply and use forecasts.

Table 1:  USDA Changes to U.S. Balance Sheets in April WASDE Report, April 10, 2025. 

	CornMil. Bu.	CottonMil. Bales	RiceMil. Cwt	SoybeansMil. Bu.	WheatMil. Bu.
Beginning Stocks	—	—	—	—	—
Imports	—	—	-1	+5	+10
Domestic Use	-25	—	+3	+10	-2
Exports	+100	-0.1	-1.5	—	-15
Ending Stocks	-75	+0.10	-2.5	-5	+27
Avg. Price	—	—	—	—	—

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Smith, Nathan. “April WASDE Updates Old Crop Estimates Before Shifting Focus to New Crop Forecast in May.” Southern Ag Today 5(16.3). April 16, 2025. Permalink

The National Peanut Board recently reported that per capita peanut consumption in the U.S. reached an all-time high of 7.9 pounds in 2021 (National Peanut Board, 2021). This is an increase from a record 7.6 pounds per capita in 2020.  Peanut consumption has increased domestically since the beginning of the pandemic led by peanut butter use.  The industry faced challenges of restocking grocery shelves after shoppers emptied them of peanut butter.  The JM Smucker Company reported 7.1% growth in peanut butter consumption in 2020 (JM Smucker Co., 2021). The growth was due to increased consumers working and schooling at home and an increased demand from food banks.  Peanut butter usage on a shelled raw basis was up 2.7% from August 2020 to July 2021 according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (2021).  This was above the six-year average of 1.93%.  Peanut butter makes up 58.9% of total shelled usage followed by snacks at 20.6%, candy at 17.6% and other uses at 2.95%.

Figure 1. Shelled Peanut Use (Raw Basis) of Primary Peanut Products, 2015-2020 Marketing Years.

The trends for shelled peanuts used domestically in primary peanut products is shown in Figure 1.  Peanut butter has increased at a rate of 1.9% over the last six years and averaged 2.6% since 2017.  Candy usage has grown at a rate of 2.5% over the last six years and averaged 3.5% since 2017.  Snack usage has remained flat over the same time period.  What about the 2021 crop marketing year beginning August 1, 2021?  The latest data shows usage for the first three months of the marketing year to be below last year by 2.9%.  Peanut butter usage is down 4.3%, candy up 2.7% and snacks down 5.7%.  The data suggest there might be a softening of shelled peanut usage.  The first three months of the marketing year represent old crop peanuts and a larger 2021 crop should start having an impact as we enter 2022.   Consumers have returned to the workplace and children are back in school.  Time will tell if shelled peanut domestic use has softened or if logistic challenges are impacting reporting. 

Citations:

JM Smucker Co., (2021) “Peanut Butter and Jelly: The Ultimate Pandemic Comfort Foods”  Press Release.  December 17, 2020. https://www.jmsmucker.com/news-stories/stories/22876.

National Peanut Board, (2021) “Peanut Per Capita Consumption Breaks New Record for Second Year in a Row” Press Release. October 21, 2021,https://www.nationalpeanutboard.org/news/peanut-per-capita-consumption-breaks-new-record-for-second-year-in-row.htm. 

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, (2021) “Peanut Stocks and Processing” ISSN: 1949-1875, August 27, 2021, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/02870v87z/41688g448/9593vt44b/pnst0821.pdf. 

Smith, Nathan. “Is Shelled Use of Primary Peanut Products Softening?“. Southern Ag Today 2(2.1). January 3, 2022. Permalink