Author: Sandro Steinbach

In 2022, the Mississippi River experienced a severe drought that disrupted barge transportation from the Midwest to ports on the Gulf of Mexico. Our research found that the drought led to a 3.9% reduction in agricultural exports from Louisiana ports, resulting in agricultural trade losses of $563.9 million between July 2022 and January 2023. Wheat exports were the most affected, with a considerable decrease in export volume of 350 million kilograms at Louisiana ports. However, there was limited evidence of adverse trade effects for soybeans and corn.

While we found some evidence of negative effects on agricultural commodities at the beginning of the Mississippi River drought in 2022, there was a strong trade recovery when transportation disruptions ended. As a result, there was limited diversion for affected commodities except for wheat, which was diverted to East and West coast ports.

Figure 1 shows that non-Louisiana Gulf ports experienced more pronounced trade disruptions (‑15.1%) than Louisiana ports (-3.9%), despite Louisiana ports accounting for over 86% of agricultural exports shipped through Gulf ports. Our study also found evidence of considerable trade diversion, with positive trade effects for East coast (5.8%) and West coast ports (7.1%). These estimates imply that some agricultural suppliers opted for alternative transportation modes to facilitate foreign shipments via ports on the East and West coasts.

Our research highlights the urgent need to mitigate the impact of natural disasters and supply chain disruptions on barge-dependent agricultural exports, especially on the Mississippi River. While various federal and state agencies offer direct relief and recovery support for drought impacts, a more comprehensive plan may be necessary to address this potential long-term issue. The lack of tools to deal with similar supply chain disruptions can limit the production capacity of agricultural farmers and their access to foreign markets.

While the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law has authorized up to $108 billion to support federal public transportation programs, including barge transportation on the Mississippi River, it may take time for these solutions to take effect, and the federal funding allocation for barge shipping remains unclear. It is crucial to enhance the availability and efficiency of alternative transportation options. Our study underscores the importance of adopting proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate-induced trade disruptions on U.S. agriculture.

Figure 1: Agricultural Trade Effects of the 2022 Mississippi River Drought.

*This work was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture through the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Award 2019-67023-29343. This paper does not necessarily reflect the views of USDA. Full paper is available here: https://tinyurl.com/yn76tw3w.

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Steinbach, Sabdro, and Xiting Zhuang. “Down the River: How the 2022 Mississippi River Drought Damaged.” Southern Ag Today 3(18.4). May 4, 2023. Permalink

Photo by Tom Fisk: https://www.pexels.com/photo/barge-on-the-mississippi-river-13649457/

The coronavirus pandemic had significant consequences for the U.S. economy, prompting the federal government to help households through stimulus payments. Coupled with deferred consumer spending, these payments created additional demand for durable goods, satisfied by a considerable expansion of imports from Asia. At the same time, U.S. ports suffer from infrastructure constraints, resulting in an unprecedented supply chain bottleneck in Fall 2021. In addition, because of increasing freight rates from Asia to the U.S., it became more lucrative for shipping companies to export empty containers instead of filling them with agricultural products. This development had adverse consequences for U.S. containerized agricultural exports from Southern ports.

Figure 1 shows estimated containerized agricultural export losses from May 2021 to January 2022 and across product groups for Southern ports. The counterfactual export losses for Southern ports were comparably low between June and August 2021, amounting to an average of $94 million per month. However, the adverse impact tripled to $343 million in September 2021, and the next three months saw a further increase in export losses. Although a slight decrease is observable in December 2021 and January 2022, the export losses remained elevated at $490 million per month.

The estimated export losses vary widely across agricultural product groups. Panel (B) shows that containerized cereals and dairy exports were above the counterfactual level, experiencing trade gains of $258 and $48 million, respectively. In contrast, meat products saw the most extensive exports losses, amounting to $640 million between May 2021 and January 2022. Containerized animal food exports trailed closely behind, experiencing export losses of about $400 million. Fat and oil products were also disrupted, recording a reduction in containerized trade by $310 million, followed by oilseeds ($282 million) and beverage products ($207 million). Comparatively, vegetables and fruit & nuts saw more minor trade destruction, down about $147 million in total.

Our counterfactual estimates show that Southern agricultural exporters faced considerable difficulties due to container shipping disruptions in 2021. Although U.S. policymakers spearheaded several initiatives to resolve port congestion and container shortages, our estimates show that these initiatives failed to ease supply chain disruptions in the short run. To reduce port congestion, the Biden administration decided in November 2021 to extend the operation hours of U.S. ports. In addition, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal was passed in the same month, promising to expand port infrastructure, which could benefit U.S. agricultural exporters, but these investments will take time to materialize.

Figure 1. Agricultural Export Losses for Southern ports between May 2021 and January 2022

(A) Containerized Agricultural Export Losses by Month

(B) Containerized Export Losses

Note. Estimates based on trade data and empirical approach by Steinbach (2022).

See: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110392

*Sandro Steinbach, Corresponding Author, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Connecticut, phone: 860-486-2836, email: sandro.steinbach@uconn.edu; Xiting Zhuang, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Connecticut, email: xiting.zhuang@uconn.edu. This work was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture through the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Award 2019-67023-29343. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Department of Agriculture. We are thankful to seminar participants of the 2022 USDA ERS Brownbag Seminar for comments on an earlier version of this paper.

Steinbach, Sandro, and Xiting Zhuang. “Shipping Container Disruptions Cause Considerable Export Losses for Southern Ports.” Southern Ag Today 2(17.4). April 21, 2022. Permalink