Farmers decide what crops to plant based on factors like crop rotations, expected profits, input costs, and other financial trade-offs. Annual predictions of planted acreage for a crop help agribusiness suppliers plan for seed, fertilizers, pesticides, and equipment needs. Prices of crops and how they compare to competing crops, like corn and cotton, influence planting decisions. In many southern states, corn competes with cotton for land, and the cotton-to-corn price ratio is a key factor in predicting how much land will be dedicated to cotton. Additionally, past planting decisions impact future choices due to crop rotation, which helps manage pests, diseases, and soil health while enhancing yield potential.
To estimate how much cotton farmers will plant in 2025, we built a model that looks at past cotton and corn prices, along with historical cotton acreage data. Data was obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) for 1990 to 2024. One of the most important factors in our model is the cotton-to-corn price ratio, which is calculated by dividing the cotton price (in cents per pound) by the corn price (in dollars per bushel).
By analyzing historical patterns, our model estimates how much cotton (total upland and Pima cotton acreage) will be planted next year based on three main factors: (1) last year’s cotton acreage; (2) the cotton-to-corn price ratio from the previous year; and (3) the expected cotton price for the upcoming year.
Simulated Cotton Planted Acreage in 2025
Using recent estimates from the USDA, we applied our model with a cotton-to-corn price ratio of 14.48 (based on a cotton price of 63.0 cents per pound and corn prices of $4.35 per bushel) as currently estimated by the April 2025 WASDE Report for the 2024 crops. A cotton price of 67.60 cents per pound for the 2025 crop is projected based on the February 2025 reported cotton price by USDA NASS.
Our model predicts that farmers will plant approximately 10.524 million acres of cotton in 2025 (Figure 1), a 5.88% decrease from 2024 (when 11.182 million acres of upland and Pima cotton were planted in total). This is higher than the 9.87 million acres forecast by the USDA Prospective Plantings report published on March 31, 2025. These projections, while containing a degree of uncertainty, help farmers and agribusinesses prepare for the upcoming season by anticipating cotton plantings and allowing adjustments in strategies accordingly.
Figure 1: Projected Probability of Total Upland Cotton and Pima Cotton Planted Acreage for 2025. Higher Points Indicate More Likely Acreage Outcomes for 2025 Based on Simulation Results.
The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results (Table 1) show that the previous year’s cotton acreage, the previous year’s cotton-to-corn price ratio, and the current year’s cotton price significantly impact current-year planting.
Table 1: Impact of Historical Cotton Acreage and Cotton-to-Corn Price Ratio on Future Cotton Planting Decisions
| Independent variable | Coefficient | t-ratio |
| 0.404* | 3.491 | |
| 256.451* | 5.812 | |
| 31.223*** | 1.828 | |
| 272.209 | 0.117 | |
| F-test | 22.092 | |
| 0.688 | ||
| 34 |
*, **, *** indicates significance at the 99%, 95% and 90%, respectively.
Parajuli, Shikshit, and Yangxuan Liu. “Projections for 2025 Cotton Acreage.” Southern Ag Today 5(18.3). April 30, 2025. Permalink