Author: Wendiam Sawadgo

The USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on September 12^th. Last month’s report introduced the first yield estimates of the year for various crops, and this month’s report updates those yield estimates while adjusting planted and harvested acreage estimates given data from the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acres. The September report did not show drastic changes, as corn production is still expected to set a new record, in part due to increased production in southern states.

The record corn production forecast in the last report is projected to increase slightly to 16.8 billion bu. This increase in corn production is due to estimated planted acres increasing to 98.7 million acres, up 1.4 million acres from the August estimate. The production increase comes despite the corn yield forecast decreasing 2.1 bu. per acre from last month’s forecast to 186.7 bu. per acre. This decrease in the national corn yield forecast was driven by 1-3 bu. per acre reductions in several major-producing Midwest states, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. 

Figure 1: 2025 Forecast Corn Production by State (Change from 2024 in parentheses), million bushels

Overall, 1.95 billion more corn bushels are expected to be harvested compared to last year. One quarter of this new production (489 million bu.) comes from Southern states (Figure 1). Mississippi is expected to have the largest increase at 70 million bu., followed by North Carolina at 60 million bu., and Louisiana at 59 million bu. Texas and Kentucky remain the largest corn producers in the region, at 250.1 million bu. and 248.5 million bu., respectively.

Other crops saw small changes in this month’s report. Cotton had minor changes in production and use forecasts relative to August, leading to no change in ending stocks, and the forecast price remains at 64.0 cents per lb. Soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to increase by 10 million bushels, resulting in a $0.10 price decline to $10.00 per bu. Sorghum and wheat both saw no changes to the projected price for this marketing year.

References

Maples, Will. “USDA Projects Largest Corn Supply in History.” Southern Ag Today 5(33.3). August 13, 2025.  Available at: http://southernagtoday.org/may-wasde-projects-higher-supplies-and-lower-prices-again-in-2024/

USDA-NASS. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. September 12, 2025. Available at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0925.pdf

USDA-NASS. Crop Production. September 12, 2025. Available at:  https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/tm70mv177/sx61gm45w/gb19h565z/crop0925.pdf

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Major Increase in Corn Production Expected Across the South.” Southern Ag Today 5(38.3). September 17, 2025. Permalink

Farmers across the United States planted an estimated 1.9 million acres to peanuts in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Acreage report released on June 30^th. If realized, this would mark a 100,000 acre increase over last year’s value and would be the largest peanut plantings since 1991 (Figure 1). This is also the third consecutive year of peanut acreage increases, up from just 1.45 million acres in 2022. Low competing row-crop prices — especially cotton prices being below 70 cents per lb. — is one factor that made peanuts a somewhat more-favorable alternative in 2025. 

Figure 1: US Planted Peanut Acres by Year

The 2025 planted peanut area for all major peanut-growing states is equal to or greater than what it was in 2024, as shown in Figure 2. Georgia — the largest producing peanut state — had the biggest increase, adding 50,000 peanut acres to last year’s figure for a total of 900,000 acres. Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas added an additional 10,000 acres apiece. Georgia’s total would be its highest since 1991, Alabama’s its highest since 2015, and Texas’ its highest since 2017.

Figure 2: 2025 Planted Peanut Acres by State and Percent Change from 2024

What could this increased peanut acreage mean for production and markets? The USDA Oil Crops Outlookreleased on July 15^th reports an estimated 1.85 million harvested acres and an average peanut yield of 4,000 lb. per acre.¹  This would amount to a record-high production of 3.7 million tons, a 476,000 ton increase from the 2024 level. At this level of production and current disappearance projections, 2025/26 marketing year ending stocks are projected to be 1.129 million tons, a 34% increase from the prior year. This expected increase in peanut supply would likely lead to a further decline in peanut contract prices going into next year. Overall, the USDA-ERS projects peanut prices for the 2025/26 marketing year to average $500 per ton, which is in line with the runner contracts offered this spring, and would mark an $18-per-ton decrease from last year. 

Footnote: ¹Keep in mind that peanut yields have been inconsistent over the past decade, so averaging 4,000 lb. per acre is far from a guarantee.

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References

Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Peanut Yield Trends.” Southern Ag Today 4(13.1). March 25, 2024. Available at: https://southernagtoday.org/2024/03/25/peanut-yield-trends/

USDA-ERS. Oil Crops Outlook. July 15, 2025. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb08p

USDA-NASS. Acreage. June 30, 2025. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb09z

USDA-NASS. Crop Production Annual Summary. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k3569432s

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Planted Peanut Acres at Thirty-four Year High.” Southern Ag Today 5(30.3). July 23, 2025. Permalink

On January 31, 2025, the White House announced a 25% import tariff on products from Canada and Mexico that was set to take effect on February 1^st but was soon after delayed for one month. Before the pause, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on several agricultural products including peanut butter. Then on February 10^th, the White House announced a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports, and the European Union responded with a list of products that could be targeted with retaliatory tariffs, also including peanut butter. The recent trade disputes raise the question of how U.S. peanuts could potentially be affected.

While the U.S. only produces about 5% of the world’s peanuts, it exports 14% of the world’s peanuts. In the 2023/2024 marketing year, 22% of the 3.27 million tons of peanuts that the U.S. produced were exported to other countries. In contrast, 58% of U.S. peanuts went to domestic food production. The U.S. also exports significant amounts of processed peanuts, including peanut butter, which totaled over $256 million in the 2023/2024 marketing year. Thus, while export markets are not the largest destination for U.S. peanuts, they are still a significant portion, and the U.S. is a major peanut exporter. 

Figure 1 shows the top destinations for U.S. exported peanuts and processed peanut products over the past five marketing years. Mexico has been the top export destination for raw U.S. peanuts each of the past three years, at an average of 147,000 tons of peanuts per year. Canada ranks second over the same period, at 112,000 tons, on average. In the 2023/2024 marketing year, the European Union had a 126% increase in peanut imports from the U.S., totaling 142,000 tons. Lastly, China was the largest peanut export destination from 2019-2021, but has decreased its peanut imports from the U.S. the past three years. Overall, Mexico, Canada, China, and the European Union account for 90% of raw U.S. peanut exports. In contrast, 57% of U.S. processed peanut exports have gone to Canada and Mexico over the past five marketing years. The European Union nearly quadrupled its imports of processed peanut products from the U.S. this past marketing year. In sum, any reduction of U.S. raw or processed peanut exports to Canada, Mexico, and the European Union could present challenges to the U.S. peanut industry.

Figure 1: U.S. Peanut Exports by Destination, Form, and Marketing Year (thousand tons)

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “How Might Trade Disputes Affect the U.S. Peanut Industry?” Southern Ag Today 5(8.3). February 19, 2025. Permalink

As the 2024 peanut harvest wraps up, peanut prices remain relatively stable compared to prices of other crops. Corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and rice have had significant price decreases since the 2022/23 marketing year, while peanut prices have experienced only a slight decrease over that period. Peanut prices are projected to average $530 per ton for the 2024/25 marketing year, just below the $536 and $538 per ton observed for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years, respectively. This price stability comes as peanut ending stocks have remained low and stable, which is expected to continue into the 2024/25 marketing year.

Figure 1: Peanut Production, Disappearance, and Ending Stocks by Year

Peanut production is expected to increase in 2024, driven by the 10% increase in planted acreage. If current USDA projections are realized, peanut production would total 3.3 million tons, an 11% increase from 2023, as shown in the orange line of figure 1. Georgia leads the way with an expected 1.65 million tons of peanut production, followed by Florida (297,850 tons), Alabama (297,600 tons), and Texas (262,500 tons). The increased nationwide production comes despite a projected U.S. peanut yield of just 3,723 lb. per acre, which is 1.4 percent below the 2023 yield and the lowest yield since 2016. 

On the demand side, peanut disappearance is projected to keep pace with the increased production, as shown by the bars in Figure 1. Peanuts processed for domestic food products, which account for about half of U.S. peanut disappearance, are expected to increase by 1% to 1.58 million tons. Peanut crush is expected to increase by 22%. In contrast, exports are forecast to decrease by 18% to 600,000 tons. As a result of the strong production, ending stocks are expected to increase to 823,000 tons, but this would still be the second lowest total since 2016. Overall, these tight supplies may suggest that peanut prices remain favorable next year. Despite the relatively favorable peanut price situation, peanut profitability remains a major concern due to the elevated production costs identified in the article titled “The Long Term Economic Struggles of Southern Peanut Farmers.”

Sources:

USDA Economic Research Service. Oil Crops Outlook: November 2024. Available at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=110380

USDA. Peanut Stocks and Processing: November 25, 2024. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/02870v87z

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Peanut Stocks Expected to Remain Low in 2025.” Southern Ag Today 4(49.3). December 4, 2024. Permalink

USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on June 12^th. This report follows the first set of estimates for the 2024/2025 crop marketing year that were released in May. This month’s report continues to use the March Prospective Plantings report as the basis for estimated acreage. As a result, there were no changes to the production or price projections for most crops, with wheat and cotton the exceptions as shown in table 1.

Table 1: WASDE Estimated and Projected Prices 5 by Crop and Marketing Year

Cotton’s 2024/2025 marketing year average price is a projected $0.70/lb., which represents a $0.04/lb. decrease from last month’s projection. This change was driven by a 0.45 milllion bale increase in the estimated cotton stocks at the start of the marketing year, bringing estimated stocks up to 2.85 million bales. The revision to beginning stocks was due to a halfmillion bale reduction in expected U.S. cotton exports during the 2023/2024 marketing year. While global demand for cotton remains strong, U.S. cotton export sales have been slower than expected amid tight supplies, and Brazil is expected to overtake the U.S. as the top cotton exporter for 2023/2024. If realized, this would mark the first time since the 1992/1993 marketing year that the U.S. would not be the world’s top cotton exporter. As a result of reduced exports, U.S. cotton stocks are projected to increase to 4.1 million bales at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year. 

On the other hand, the projected 2024/2025 marketing year U.S. wheat price increased by $0.50 to $6.50/bu. This price increase is due to a 25 million bushel increase in projected exports this coming marketing year, in spite of a slight increase in projected U.S. wheat yields and soft harvest-time prices in the United States. The increase in U.S. exports follows a 1% decrease in projected global wheat production because of yield reductions for major wheat exporters Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. The decreased global yield projections were driven by dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, late-season frosts in Russia, and excessive precipitation in France.

Looking ahead, we should expect to see more significant changes in next month’s WASDE report. On June 28^th, USDA is scheduled to release the Acreage report, which will likely result in adjustments to acreage planted and harvested estimates for most row crops. These updated acreage estimates will affect projected production and be taken into account in the July WASDE report.

References

Biram, Hunter, and Ryan Loy. “May WASDE Projects Higher Supplies and Lower Prices Again in 2024.” Southern Ag Today 4(20.1). May 13, 2024. Available at: http://southernagtoday.org/may-wasde-projects-higher-supplies-and-lower-prices-again-in-2024/

USDA-NASS. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. June 12, 2024. Available at:  https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0624.pdf

USDA-FAS. Cotton: World Markets and Trade. June 12, 2024. Available at:  https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/kp78gg36g/xk81m8188/xs55p371r/Cotton.pdf

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “June WASDE Report Projects Increases to Wheat Prices, Decreases to Cotton Prices.” Southern Ag Today 4(25.1). June 17, 2024. Permalink