Author: William E. Maples

Every January, there is talk of New Year’s resolutions—a time to commit to improvements and set new goals. While health and personal finance often top the list of resolutions, there is no reason not to think about the farm business and marketing commitments in the same way. Farm profitability depends on effective management across many areas. Producers devote significant time and effort to decisions that affect crop production, but just as important is having a marketing plan for how the crop will be sold. Marketing is a continuous process that can span multiple production years, but it should be revisited for possible updating. With a solid marketing plan, producers can approach selling their crop as a year-round process rather than a single decision at one point in the year. This article highlights key considerations for developing a successful marketing strategy. 

First, it is important to understand what a marketing plan is not. It is not a one-time silver bullet that guarantees sales at the highest price. While some producers may ‘beat’ the market in certain years, few can do so consistently. Commodity prices reflect supply and demand fundamentals, but in the short run, they are influenced by unpredictable events and new information. Even long-term outlooks are subject to shocks such as trade wars or other geopolitical developments. Expecting a marketing plan to always capture the top of the market sets up unrealistic goals. Instead, the value of a marketing plan lies in its ability to manage risk through consistent, disciplined decisions.

Every marketing plan should be anchored in the farm’s business goals. Those goals set the operation’s risk tolerance, cash-flow needs, and planning horizon. A producer nearing retirement may prioritize capital preservation, while a younger producer focused on growth may accept more price variability to preserve upside and liquidity. The plan should explicitly tie tactics to goals and assess which risks (price, basis, yield, liquidity, etc.) would most threaten those goals. In short, the marketing plan should serve the business plan, not the other way around.

Cost of production is the foundation of any marketing plan. Without a current, credible breakeven, you can’t judge whether a sale protects margin. Prices are volatile and mostly outside the producer’s control, so the most reliable gains come from managing inputs and operating efficiently. A sound approach is to build price objectives directly from breakeven, setting a minimum price that locks in a base margin.  Additional targets can then be layered at predefined margin levels (for example, breakeven + $0.20 and + $0.40) based on the farm’s goals and cash-flow needs. 

Marketing plans are most effective when they encourage proactive, rather than reactive, sales. Often, the worst sale is a forced sale, such as selling grain at harvest due to limited storage or pulling grain from the bin to meet a loan payment. Coordinating decision dates with price targets allows sales to be spread throughout the year. Crop markets frequently show seasonal strength in spring and early summer, making that window a natural fit for higher targets. Extending the marketing window, considering preharvest sales within the operation’s risk tolerance, and using crop insurance to backstop commitments can all help create more opportunities to lock in margin. Maintaining strong relationships with local buyers can also expand contract options and delivery flexibility.

Finally, it is essential to document the reasoning behind every marketing decision. A simple decision log noting the trigger, target price, quantity, tool, and rationale can reinforce discipline when action is required. The biggest threats to good marketing decisions are emotion, fear of making a mistake, and the temptation to hold out for just a little more. If a sale aligns with business goals and protects margin above breakeven, it is a sound decision, even if prices later move higher. Long-term success comes from steady, margin-protecting progress, not perfection on every sale. Now is an excellent time to make a New Year’s resolution for the farm by committing to a clear, disciplined marketing strategy for 2026 and beyond.

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Maples, Will. “A New Year, A Better Marketing Plan for the Farm.” Southern Ag Today 6(2.3). January 7, 2026. Permalink

Authors: Will Maples; Mississippi State University; Grant Gardner; University of Kentucky

As the calendar year comes to a close, U.S. soybean exports remain one of the more disappointing components of the soybean balance sheet. USDA currently projects soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels, down 13 percent from last year. This weakness has been evident throughout the marketing year, with export commitments consistently running below historical norms and showing little of the typical seasonal acceleration.

Figure 1 shows that U.S. soybean export commitments for the 2025-2026 marketing year have consistently trailed historical benchmarks. Commitments remained near the bottom of the five-year range through the winter and spring, reflecting limited early-season booking activity. Although export sales began to improve in late summer and early fall, the pace remains well below both the five-year average and USDA pace targets. Historically, roughly 70 percent of total soybean export commitments are in place by this point in the marketing year. Based on the five-year average pace, the U.S. would need approximately 30.9 million metric tons of commitments to meet USDA’s export projection. Currently, commitments total just 21.8 million metric tons, highlighting the substantial gap that remains.

The largest wildcard for U.S. soybean exports is China. Historically, China has been the single largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, accounting for 25% of U.S. soybean production (Gardner, 2025). However, Chinese purchases effectively halted last spring following the onset of the trade war. After the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement in October, China resumed soybean purchases. Under the agreement, China committed to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025, with an additional 25 million metric tons to be purchased in each of the following three years. Putting these numbers in perspective, 12 million metric tons account for 10% of U.S. soybean production this year.  

Initially, the 2025 commitment was expected to be met by the end of the calendar year, though the timeline has since become less clear, with the administration later indicating the target could be reached by the end of February. Regardless of the exact deadline, progress to date suggests the original target will not be met by year-end. For the export report ending November 27, USDA reports China had purchased 3.0 million metric tons of soybeans. While recent announcements of additional sales to China suggest this figure is now higher than officially reported, purchases remain well short of trade deal commitments.

Despite the Chinese trade agreement, questions remain about the economic feasibility of large-scale Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans relative to Brazilian soybeans. China has already sourced a substantial volume of soybeans from South America, and overall import demand is likely to remain limited regardless of trade commitments. With USDA projecting another increase in Brazilian soybean production, U.S. soybeans will likely remain trading at a premium to Brazil.

The lag in exports creates downside risk for producers with unpriced soybeans in storage if marketing decisions are based solely on the expectation of a late-season surge in Chinese purchases. Rather than relying on a potential export-driven price rally, producers should consider establishing price floors or incorporating other risk management strategies to protect against continued export weakness. As producers consider marketing old-crop soybeans for 2026 delivery, price recovery remains uncertain. Periodic sales at or above breakeven can help mitigate downside price risk, particularly if export demand continues to lag.

Figure 1. U.S. Total Soybean Export Commitments for 2025-2026 Marketing Year Compared to Previous Five Years (2020-2024)

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Sources: 

Gardner, Grant. “Major Players in US Trade and Grain Market Volatility.” Southern Ag Today 5(15.3). April 9, 2025. Permalink

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Maples, William E., and Grant Gardner. “Soybean Exports Continue to Lag.” Southern Ag Today 5(52.3). December 24, 2025. Permalink

Thanksgiving is a time to slow down, gather with the people who matter most, and enjoy the dishes that feel like home. For many Southern families, no holiday table feels complete without one standout ingredient: the sweet potato. Whether baked, mashed, candied, or topped with toasted marshmallows, this humble crop has become a Thanksgiving staple across the country. Each year, the United States (U.S.) plants more than 150,000 acres of sweet potatoes, making it a major commercial crop, especially in states across the South.

Sweet potato production is largely centered in three states: North Carolina, Mississippi, and California. North Carolina is the clear leader, planting 87,000 acres in 2024, which accounted for 58 percent of all U.S. sweet potato acreage (NASS). Mississippi ranked second with 32,000 acres, followed by California with 18,000. Together, North Carolina and Mississippi produced roughly 80 percent of the nation’s planted acres. In Mississippi, production is clustered in the north central region around Vardaman, often celebrated as “The Sweet Potato Capital of the World.” In North Carolina, Wilson, Nash, and Johnston counties anchor the state’s industry.

Louisiana, while still an important producer, has experienced a significant decline over the past decade. In 2011, producers planted 13,000 acres, but by 2024 that number had fallen to just over 5,000 (LSU AgCenter). High production costs, persistent pest pressure from the sugarcane beetle, and an aging grower population have all contributed to this downward trend.

Of all U.S. sweet potatoes produced, about 70 percent are made available for domestic consumption. In recent decades, however, U.S. sweet potatoes have also seen strong growth in export demand. In 2000, exports accounted for only 3 percent of total use, but by 2022 that share had increased to 21 percent. Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are the top three destinations for U.S. sweet potatoes. While Canada has steadily increased its imports and remains the largest buyer, most of the export growth since 2000 has come from expanding markets in Europe. 

Sweet potato producers face unique marketing challenges compared to traditional row crops. Not every sweet potato is the same, and roots are graded based on size. U.S. No. 1s are considered the premium grade, preferred for the fresh market, and command the highest price. U.S. No. 2s include smaller roots, known as canners, and larger roots, known as jumbos, which are typically used by the processing industry. However, jumbos and canners bring lower prices, and depending on market conditions, canners may not be economical to harvest. This season, Mississippi growers have faced particular challenges with a higher share of smaller roots, resulting in lower overall economic returns.

Sweet potatoes remain a key crop in the Southeast, and producers continue to navigate significant challenges to deliver them to your Thanksgiving table. If you haven’t planned to include sweet potatoes in your meal tomorrow, there is still time. To make it easier, I am happy to share the best way to enjoy sweet potatoes for a Thanksgiving meal. This recipe comes straight from my wife’s Mimi, who grew up in the heart of Mississippi sweet potato country. Her sweet potato casserole has been a family staple for generations, and I hope your family enjoys it just as much as ours does. Happy Thanksgiving!

References 

LSU AgCenter. (n.d.). Research station profile: Sweet Potato Research Station. https://www.lsuagcenter.com/portals/our_offices/research_stations/sweetpotato/features/profile

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). (2025). Quick Stats. https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

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Maples, Will. “Sweet Potatoes: A Southern Crop for Thanksgiving.” Southern Ag Today 5(48.3). November 26, 2025. Permalink

Throughout this growing season, much of the conversation has centered around expectations for a historically large U.S. corn crop. In its September report, USDA projected production at 16.8 billion bushels, nearly 1.5 billion more than the previous record set in 2023. As noted in last week’s Southern Ag Today article, Potential Market Impacts of Missing a WASDE Report During Government Shutdowns, the October WASDE was canceled due to the government shutdown, leaving producers without updated yield or demand estimates. Now that harvest is well underway and yields are coming in, USDA may trim its yield estimate slightly, but even with a small adjustment, we are still looking at a massive crop. The key question moving forward is simple: what are we going to do with all of it?

Most U.S. corn is used for three primary purposes: livestock feed, ethanol production, and exports, which together account for roughly 97 percent of total use. The remaining share goes toward food and seed. Figure 1 shows annual corn consumption since 2010.  Corn used for feed is currently projected at 6.1 billion bushels, the highest level since at least 2000. The projected grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs), a USDA measure of animals on feed, are estimated at 100.8 for 2025. Even with a smaller cattle supply, this is higher than the 2024 measure of 99.9, driven by increases in hogs, layers, and broilers. Lower corn prices make it a more competitive feed ingredient that will continue to support feed demand in the year ahead.

Corn use for ethanol production is projected at 5.6 billion bushels for the 2025 marketing year, up from 5.4 billion bushels last year. Although ethanol use has leveled off since the rapid expansion seen during the 2010s, it remains a steady and reliable source of demand for U.S. corn. Recent policy discussions around allowing year-round sales of E15 could provide an additional boost to corn demand through expanded ethanol use. 

While other commodities have faced headwinds, exports have been a bright spot for corn demand this year. Export sales have moved at a blistering pace, with the current forecast calling for a record 3 billion bushels of U.S. corn exports. Notably, this surge has occurred without purchases from China, which has remained absent from the U.S. corn market since the 2023/24 marketing year. Instead, sales to traditional trading partners have been strong, led by Mexico, followed by Japan and Colombia. Due to the government shutdown, USDA has not updated its weekly export sales report since the week of September 18. When reporting resumes, the next update will be closely watched to see whether corn export sales have maintained their rapid pace.

Given the elevated demand projections for corn, it is hard to see a significant price boost coming from the demand side throughout the rest of the year. Large supplies will continue to weigh on the market, and all eyes will be on the final production numbers. In this environment, managing price risk becomes critical. Producers with unpriced grain should consider setting clear marketing targets and evaluating tools such as forward contracts, futures, or options to lock in favorable opportunities when they arise. A disciplined approach to marketing can help balance downside risk while keeping flexibility for potential rallies later in the year.    

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Consumption by Category, 2010-2025. Source: USDA

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Maples, Will. “Demand Outlook for a Record U.S. Corn Crop.” Southern Ag Today 5(43.3). October 22, 2025. Permalink

All summer, much of the corn market conversation has focused on how strong the corn crop looks nationwide and the potential for a record-breaking harvest. The August WASDE, the first report of the year to incorporate yield estimates from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, confirmed that outlook. National corn yield was pegged at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, up 7.8 bushels from July. An additional 1.9 million harvested acres also pushed production to a forecasted 16.7 billion bushels, 1.4 billion more than the previous record set in 2023. While total U.S. corn use was raised to 16.0 billion bushels, the larger supplies still left the market facing the largest ending stocks since 2018 at 2.1 billion bushels. With that surplus, USDA trimmed the season-average price to $3.90 per bushel.                

While corn is setting new supply records, soybean estimates were far less dramatic. USDA trimmed harvested area from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million, but a higher yield estimate of 53.6 bushels per acre offset much of that reduction. As a result, 2025 production is forecast at 4.29 billion bushels. Lower supplies and sluggish export sales led USDA to cut export projections by 40 million bushels. Even so, the soybean balance sheet did tighten slightly, with ending stocks lowered by 20 million bushels to 290 million.

Cotton’s supply outlook shifted sharply this month, with USDA cutting production estimates by 10 percent. Planted acres are now pegged at 9.28 million, down 9 percent from July. Persistent dryness in the Southwest pushed the abandonment rate higher, leaving harvested acres at 7.36 million. With more abandoned low-yield acres removed from the mix, the yield estimate rose to 862 pounds per acre. However, the acreage losses outweighed the yield gains and pulled production down to 13.21 million bales, 1.4 million fewer than last month. Exports were trimmed by 0.5 million bales, and ending stocks are now projected at 3.60 million bales, a reduction of 1 million from July.

Overall, the latest WASDE report paints a mixed picture across key row crops. Corn is poised for a record harvest with ample supplies putting downward pressure on prices, while soybeans show modest tightening of the supply and demand situation. Cotton faces reduced acreage and production. As harvest progresses, market participants will be closely watching export demand and weather developments during harvest, which will play critical roles in shaping prices and supply dynamics through the rest of the year.

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Yield, Planted Acres, and Harvested Acres, 2011–2025 (USDA – NASS)       

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Maples, Will. “USDA Projects Largest Corn Supply in History.” Southern Ag Today 5(33.3). August 13, 2025. Permalink