Author: William E. Maples

Thanksgiving is a time to slow down, gather with the people who matter most, and enjoy the dishes that feel like home. For many Southern families, no holiday table feels complete without one standout ingredient: the sweet potato. Whether baked, mashed, candied, or topped with toasted marshmallows, this humble crop has become a Thanksgiving staple across the country. Each year, the United States (U.S.) plants more than 150,000 acres of sweet potatoes, making it a major commercial crop, especially in states across the South.

Sweet potato production is largely centered in three states: North Carolina, Mississippi, and California. North Carolina is the clear leader, planting 87,000 acres in 2024, which accounted for 58 percent of all U.S. sweet potato acreage (NASS). Mississippi ranked second with 32,000 acres, followed by California with 18,000. Together, North Carolina and Mississippi produced roughly 80 percent of the nation’s planted acres. In Mississippi, production is clustered in the north central region around Vardaman, often celebrated as “The Sweet Potato Capital of the World.” In North Carolina, Wilson, Nash, and Johnston counties anchor the state’s industry.

Louisiana, while still an important producer, has experienced a significant decline over the past decade. In 2011, producers planted 13,000 acres, but by 2024 that number had fallen to just over 5,000 (LSU AgCenter). High production costs, persistent pest pressure from the sugarcane beetle, and an aging grower population have all contributed to this downward trend.

Of all U.S. sweet potatoes produced, about 70 percent are made available for domestic consumption. In recent decades, however, U.S. sweet potatoes have also seen strong growth in export demand. In 2000, exports accounted for only 3 percent of total use, but by 2022 that share had increased to 21 percent. Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are the top three destinations for U.S. sweet potatoes. While Canada has steadily increased its imports and remains the largest buyer, most of the export growth since 2000 has come from expanding markets in Europe. 

Sweet potato producers face unique marketing challenges compared to traditional row crops. Not every sweet potato is the same, and roots are graded based on size. U.S. No. 1s are considered the premium grade, preferred for the fresh market, and command the highest price. U.S. No. 2s include smaller roots, known as canners, and larger roots, known as jumbos, which are typically used by the processing industry. However, jumbos and canners bring lower prices, and depending on market conditions, canners may not be economical to harvest. This season, Mississippi growers have faced particular challenges with a higher share of smaller roots, resulting in lower overall economic returns.

Sweet potatoes remain a key crop in the Southeast, and producers continue to navigate significant challenges to deliver them to your Thanksgiving table. If you haven’t planned to include sweet potatoes in your meal tomorrow, there is still time. To make it easier, I am happy to share the best way to enjoy sweet potatoes for a Thanksgiving meal. This recipe comes straight from my wife’s Mimi, who grew up in the heart of Mississippi sweet potato country. Her sweet potato casserole has been a family staple for generations, and I hope your family enjoys it just as much as ours does. Happy Thanksgiving!

References 

LSU AgCenter. (n.d.). Research station profile: Sweet Potato Research Station. https://www.lsuagcenter.com/portals/our_offices/research_stations/sweetpotato/features/profile

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). (2025). Quick Stats. https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

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Maples, Will. “Sweet Potatoes: A Southern Crop for Thanksgiving.” Southern Ag Today 5(48.3). November 26, 2025. Permalink

Throughout this growing season, much of the conversation has centered around expectations for a historically large U.S. corn crop. In its September report, USDA projected production at 16.8 billion bushels, nearly 1.5 billion more than the previous record set in 2023. As noted in last week’s Southern Ag Today article, Potential Market Impacts of Missing a WASDE Report During Government Shutdowns, the October WASDE was canceled due to the government shutdown, leaving producers without updated yield or demand estimates. Now that harvest is well underway and yields are coming in, USDA may trim its yield estimate slightly, but even with a small adjustment, we are still looking at a massive crop. The key question moving forward is simple: what are we going to do with all of it?

Most U.S. corn is used for three primary purposes: livestock feed, ethanol production, and exports, which together account for roughly 97 percent of total use. The remaining share goes toward food and seed. Figure 1 shows annual corn consumption since 2010.  Corn used for feed is currently projected at 6.1 billion bushels, the highest level since at least 2000. The projected grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs), a USDA measure of animals on feed, are estimated at 100.8 for 2025. Even with a smaller cattle supply, this is higher than the 2024 measure of 99.9, driven by increases in hogs, layers, and broilers. Lower corn prices make it a more competitive feed ingredient that will continue to support feed demand in the year ahead.

Corn use for ethanol production is projected at 5.6 billion bushels for the 2025 marketing year, up from 5.4 billion bushels last year. Although ethanol use has leveled off since the rapid expansion seen during the 2010s, it remains a steady and reliable source of demand for U.S. corn. Recent policy discussions around allowing year-round sales of E15 could provide an additional boost to corn demand through expanded ethanol use. 

While other commodities have faced headwinds, exports have been a bright spot for corn demand this year. Export sales have moved at a blistering pace, with the current forecast calling for a record 3 billion bushels of U.S. corn exports. Notably, this surge has occurred without purchases from China, which has remained absent from the U.S. corn market since the 2023/24 marketing year. Instead, sales to traditional trading partners have been strong, led by Mexico, followed by Japan and Colombia. Due to the government shutdown, USDA has not updated its weekly export sales report since the week of September 18. When reporting resumes, the next update will be closely watched to see whether corn export sales have maintained their rapid pace.

Given the elevated demand projections for corn, it is hard to see a significant price boost coming from the demand side throughout the rest of the year. Large supplies will continue to weigh on the market, and all eyes will be on the final production numbers. In this environment, managing price risk becomes critical. Producers with unpriced grain should consider setting clear marketing targets and evaluating tools such as forward contracts, futures, or options to lock in favorable opportunities when they arise. A disciplined approach to marketing can help balance downside risk while keeping flexibility for potential rallies later in the year.    

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Consumption by Category, 2010-2025. Source: USDA

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Maples, Will. “Demand Outlook for a Record U.S. Corn Crop.” Southern Ag Today 5(43.3). October 22, 2025. Permalink

All summer, much of the corn market conversation has focused on how strong the corn crop looks nationwide and the potential for a record-breaking harvest. The August WASDE, the first report of the year to incorporate yield estimates from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, confirmed that outlook. National corn yield was pegged at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, up 7.8 bushels from July. An additional 1.9 million harvested acres also pushed production to a forecasted 16.7 billion bushels, 1.4 billion more than the previous record set in 2023. While total U.S. corn use was raised to 16.0 billion bushels, the larger supplies still left the market facing the largest ending stocks since 2018 at 2.1 billion bushels. With that surplus, USDA trimmed the season-average price to $3.90 per bushel.                

While corn is setting new supply records, soybean estimates were far less dramatic. USDA trimmed harvested area from 82.5 million acres to 80.1 million, but a higher yield estimate of 53.6 bushels per acre offset much of that reduction. As a result, 2025 production is forecast at 4.29 billion bushels. Lower supplies and sluggish export sales led USDA to cut export projections by 40 million bushels. Even so, the soybean balance sheet did tighten slightly, with ending stocks lowered by 20 million bushels to 290 million.

Cotton’s supply outlook shifted sharply this month, with USDA cutting production estimates by 10 percent. Planted acres are now pegged at 9.28 million, down 9 percent from July. Persistent dryness in the Southwest pushed the abandonment rate higher, leaving harvested acres at 7.36 million. With more abandoned low-yield acres removed from the mix, the yield estimate rose to 862 pounds per acre. However, the acreage losses outweighed the yield gains and pulled production down to 13.21 million bales, 1.4 million fewer than last month. Exports were trimmed by 0.5 million bales, and ending stocks are now projected at 3.60 million bales, a reduction of 1 million from July.

Overall, the latest WASDE report paints a mixed picture across key row crops. Corn is poised for a record harvest with ample supplies putting downward pressure on prices, while soybeans show modest tightening of the supply and demand situation. Cotton faces reduced acreage and production. As harvest progresses, market participants will be closely watching export demand and weather developments during harvest, which will play critical roles in shaping prices and supply dynamics through the rest of the year.

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Yield, Planted Acres, and Harvested Acres, 2011–2025 (USDA – NASS)       

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Maples, Will. “USDA Projects Largest Corn Supply in History.” Southern Ag Today 5(33.3). August 13, 2025. Permalink

International markets support U.S. agriculture, especially in the Southern states. Exports make up a significant portion of cash receipts for many major commodities produced in the Southern states (Figure 1). From 2010 to 2023, an average of 84% of cotton receipts came from exports, underscoring the crop’s reliance on global trade. Wheat and soybeans also depend heavily on international markets, with exports accounting for 64% and 55% of their respective receipts. In contrast, corn is less export-oriented, with just 19% of receipts linked to foreign buyers^[1]. This level of exposure makes Southern agriculture especially sensitive to tariff changes and trade policy shifts. During periods of uncertainty, a well-informed marketing and risk management strategy is often the best defense producers have against market volatility.

A well-developed marketing and risk management plan is essential for producers facing today’s volatile markets. While trade uncertainty is a significant source of price swings, volatility is a constant in agriculture—driven by weather, input costs, and global events. Trade is one of the dominant factors right now. Regardless of the cause, producers should expect uncertainty and be ready to manage price risk each crop year. A strong marketing and risk management plan is the best tool for navigating uncertainty. Crucially, the plan should be written down and shared with everyone involved in the operation to ensure clear communication and timely decisions. Growing a crop and marketing a crop involve two completely different skill sets, so communication between those in charge of production and those in charge of marketing and risk management is essential. 

The most significant value of a marketing plan is determining sales timing, which should coincide with when production risk is reduced, and what action should be taken at different price points. Trying to time price peaks in markets shaped by unpredictable trade shifts is often ineffective and can be risky. Instead, a solid marketing plan sets decision dates, creating structure around when and how much to sell if markets achieve price targets. Dates should be tied to when production risk is reduced and be informed by realistic price targets, helping producers stay disciplined and focused on financial goals while taking some of the emotion out of pricing decisions. The key is to make sales when prices meet or exceed profit objectives at strategic points in the production/marketing year—even if prices might rise later. Especially in tight-margin years, locking in profits when available can be critical to the operation’s financial success.

Producers may benefit from a more proactive sales strategy in today’s challenging market environment when profit opportunities arise. For instance, a summer weather rally that pushes prices higher could present a good time to forward contract or price additional bushels before harvest. While aggressiveness in pre-harvest marketing will vary depending on each producer’s risk tolerance, defining that comfort level in advance is essential. The best marketing decisions are those made with forethought—not in the heat of the moment. In years with tight margins, relying on chance is a risk most operations can’t afford.

Figure 1. Export Contribution to Southern Ag Receipts, Observed and Average Share by Commodity, 2010-2023

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^[1] Estimates do not include by products for crops such as ethanol, dried distiller grains (DDGs), soybean oil, and soybean meal.

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Maples, William E., and Grant Gardner. “Managing Crop Markets When Trade Disrupts Prices.” Southern Ag Today 5(19.3). May 7, 2025. Permalink

As soybean producers prepare for the upcoming growing season, global soybean stocks are exerting a bearish influence on the market. Currently, USDA projects the 2024/25 marketing year to have a record-high level of ending stocks at 131.87 million metric tons. If realized, this would be 17.62 million metric tons greater than the previous record high in 2018. The final estimate for ending stocks will depend on how the South American crop concludes. So far, Brazil has experienced favorable weather conditions, making it likely that it will achieve its estimated record soybean production this year. The outlook for Argentina is less certain.

The majority of the increase in global soybean stocks can be attributed to one country (Figure 1). China holds the largest share of these stocks, with 46.01 million metric tons, marking an 83% increase since 2021. This growth accounts for 53% of the overall increase in global stocks during the same period. Brazil and Argentina have seen a 22% increase in ending stocks since 2021. In contrast, of the four major countries in soybean markets, the United States maintains the smallest amount of stocks at 12.8 million metric tons, but this still reflects a 71% increase since 2021.

Another way to analyze ending stocks is by comparing them to a country’s annual usage, which can be illustrated through the concept of days-on-hand. Figure 2 shows the days-on-hand globally and for Argentina, Brazil, China, and the United States. Global days-on-hand are projected at 119 days, the second highest on record. Before 2022, China never had more than 92 days on hand but is currently projected to have a record 132 days of soybeans on hand. Argentina has increased from a decade-low of 152 days on hand in 2022 to a record 199 days on hand in 2024. The United States is projected to have 119 days of soybeans on hand, the second-highest figure since days-on-hand peaked during the 2018 trade war with China.

Due to the current high levels of stocks projected by the USDA, soybean prices are expected to remain weak in early 2025. With a record crop expected from Brazil, the market is unlikely to see significant upward price movements in the coming months. While changes in weather conditions or harvest delays in South America could potentially drive prices higher, producers may have to wait until the market shifts its focus to the planting of the upcoming U.S. soybean crop before witnessing any substantial increases in prices. Given the uncertainty regarding future price direction, it is essential for producers to start preparing a marketing plan for the upcoming year and be ready to take advantage of profitable prices if they arise.

Figure 1. Global Soybean Stocks by Country; 2019-2024

Figure 2. Soybean Days-On-Hand; World and Select Countries; 2000-2024

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Maples, William E. “Record High Global Soybean Stocks.” Southern Ag Today 5(2.3). January 8, 2025. Permalink