Author: William E. Maples

In the Prospective Plantings report released March 31^st by USDA-NASS, total planted rice acreage for 2022 was projected at 2.452 million acres, down 3% or 80,000 acres from last year. If realized, this would be the lowest acreage of rice planted in the United States since 1987. The majority of the acreage reduction is due to a 60,000 acre decrease in California, which grows medium and short grain rice. Long grain acres, the main type grown in the Southern states, is projected at 1.943 million acres, down 1.4% from last year. Arkansas remains the largest growing rice state with 1.191 million acres, accounting for 49% of all acreage. Louisiana is the only state to increase acreage, adding 20,000 acres for 440,000 acres total, while Mississippi’s 100,000 acres is the lowest since 1975. 

            Higher input costs played a key role in producer unwillingness to add rice acreage this year. Enterprise budgets from Mississippi State University’s Department of Agricultural Economics project rice production expenses to increase by 10% to $899/acre averaged across production practices. A large driver of this increase is fertilizer costs, which are projected up 43%. University of Arkansas budgets project similar increases, with a 47% increase in production expenses from last year. Additional supply chain uncertainty for herbicides needed in rice production makes a lower input intensive crop like soybeans more attractive to producers. 

            Additionally, long grain rice had to compete with a better price outlook for alternative crops, such as corn and soybeans. The chart below shows the percent change in the harvest month futures price for corn, soybeans, and rice since December 1, 2021. The November CBOT Rough Rice futures contract price has increased approximately 20% since the 1^st of December. The percent price increase of corn and soybeans though has outpaced rice at 25% for soybeans and over 35% for corn. The combination of higher input costs and a lower price relative to other crops has likely made producers take a longer-term outlook of the rice market. Lower acreage will continue to support the upward trend in rice prices seen this spring. While supplies are not necessarily tight at this point, we can expect increased price volatility due to any events that might influence production during the growing year. As of April 25^th, the USDA-NASS Crop Progress report has rice planting at 26% complete compared to the 5-year average of 47%. If plantings remain stalled, the market will begin to worry about supply and push prices higher.    

Maples, William E. . “U.S. Total Rice Acreage Projected at 35 Year Low“. Southern Ag Today 2(19.1). May 2, 2022. Permalink

Rice saw a record overall yield with the 2021 crop, but rice production was down almost 16% from the previous year. The overall rice yield was 7,709 lbs./acre, which beats the previous record high of 7,694 lbs./acre in 2013. This new record high was driven by a record medium-grain rice yield of 8,623 lbs./acre, which was 2.8% higher than the previous record. The 2021 long-grain rice crop saw the second-highest yield on record at 7,471 lbs./acre, just below the record of 7,517 obtained in 2018. Despite these high yields, 2021 production was lower than the previous year at 191.8 million hundredweight for all rice and 144.6 million hundredweight for long-grain rice. Lower production was driven by a reduction in planted acreage by nearly 17% in 2021 as compared to 2020. Mississippi saw the largest reduction of any state in planted acreage, down 36% from the previous year. 

 With lower production, U.S. long-grain rice ending stocks for the 2021 marketing year is currently estimated by the USDA at 21.4 million hundredweight resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.1%, which is down from 29.7% in 2020. Domestic U.S. consumption of long-grain rice, while lower than last year, remains strong, but exports remain flat compared to previous years. The current 2021 market year average price projection for long-grain rice is $13.20/cwt, which is the highest price since 2013. 

U.S. long-grain rice acreage has fluctuated from around 2.5 million to 3 million acres year to year consistently since 2013. Given this pattern and current high prices, rice acreage is expected to rebound back to around 3 million acres in 2022. One potential factor that can limit an acreage increase is current high input costs and supply uncertainty. Soybeans are the common rotational crop planted with rice and currently, soybean prices are strong and can be planted at a lower cost of production per acre. Current high long-grain rice prices though will likely convince most producers to stay with their normal crop rotation.         

Maples, William E. . “Rice Production Down in 2021 Despite Strong Yields“. Southern Ag Today 2(8.1). February 14, 2022. Permalink

On September 28th, ICE cotton futures closed above a dollar for the first time since 2011. Over the past year, the cotton market has been bullish, with prices following a long-term upward trend. On April 1, 2020, at the start of the COVID pandemic, December 2021 cotton futures closed at a contract low of 54.37 cents, but since that point the contract price has increased nearly 95% as of October 1, 2021. 

A big driver in U.S. prices has been robust demand. Current USDA estimates for the 2020/21 marketing year have the U.S. exporting 16.37 million bales (Figure 1). As the estimate stands now, this would be the highest level of exports since 2005. China was the largest purchaser of U.S. upland cotton in the 2020/21 marketing year at 4.839 million bales, followed by Vietnam, Pakistan, and Turkey. Upland cotton sales to China were up 97% compared to the previous year. USDA export projections for the 2021/22 marketing year are currently at 15.5 million bales. Chinese demand will be a key factor going forward as questions persist about whether China can maintain current purchasing levels and about how much Chinese purchasing is attributable to the Phase 1 trade deal. Supply chain issues also continue across the globe, and higher U.S. prices have the potential to dampen U.S. export demand.

Current estimates have the U.S. with 11.19 million planted acres of cotton in 2021, down 900,000 acres from the previous year. Though planted acres are down, production is projected to be 3.9 million bales higher than the previous year at 18.51 million bales. Higher production estimates are a combination of a better yield outlook and a lower abandonment rate. Cotton production in 2020 was hampered by drought conditions in Texas and hurricanes in the southeast. The U.S. is projected to harvest 9.92 million acres in 2021, which is 1.64 million more acres than 2020 with an average yield of 895 lbs/acre. Currently, USDA has 65 percent of the U.S. crop rated as good or excellent which is 22 percentage points higher than last year. Most of the U.S. crop remains a couple of weeks behind schedule, and weather remains the determining supply factor after a period of wet weather and milder temperatures across much of the cotton belt. 

Bringing supply and demand together, U.S. ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year are projected at 3.7 million bales, which is a reasonably tight level. Looking ahead to the spring of 2022, the ratio of Dec’22 CBOT corn futures to Dec’22 ICE cotton futures can serve as an early projection for planted cotton acres. That ratio currently sits near 6.1, which is similar to last year. This suggests planted cotton acres of 11 or 12 million. The occurrence of dollar cotton, though, is exciting to producers and has the potential to push acreage higher. Assuming 12 million planted acres, a ten-year national average yield of 855 lbs/acre, a 15% abandonment rate, and keeping all else at 21/22 projections, this would suggest ending stocks at 3.87 million bales. This would be a minimal increase in ending stocks and suggests new crop futures prices trading around a comparable level to the current marketing year range.     

Figure 1. U.S. Cotton Exports 2000-2019, 2020 estimate, and 2021 projection.

Source: USDA WASDE, September 2021

Maples, William E. . “Cotton Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 1(43.1a). October 18, 2021. Permalink