Author: Yuri Clemets Daglia Calil

The European Union (EU) and Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) signed a trade agreement on December 6, 2024, after more than 25 years of negotiations. The agreement, yet to be ratified, has the potential to become the most significant EU partnership, encompassing over 700 million people. It emerges amid the U.S. discussion of raising tariffs. 

Highlights for Agriculture

The flow of agricultural products is more significant from Mercosur to the EU, as illustrated in Figures 1, 2, and 3. The EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement introduces significant changes to agricultural trade by establishing quotas and reducing tariffs over a phased period^[1], providing greater access to Mercosur countries.  For beef, an additional quota of 99,000 metric tons (CWE) will be introduced over five years with a 7.5% tariff, while the existing Hilton Quota (10,000 metric tons) will become tariff-free upon the agreement’s implementation. Poultry exports will benefit from a 180,000 metric ton (CWE) quota, phased over five years, with zero tariffs, while pork will have a 25,000 metric ton quota with a fixed tariff of €83 per metric ton, implemented over five years.

The agreement also includes quotas for sugar (180,000 metric tons with zero tariffs, including 10,000 metric tons reserved for Paraguay), ethanol (450,000 metric tons duty-free for industrial use), and corn (1 million metric tons at zero tariffs, increasing over five years). A 60,000 metric ton quota for rice will start at zero tariffs and gradually increase over five years. Additionally, orange juice tariffs will be eliminated over seven to ten years, with a 50% preferential margin during the transition. These provisions aim to expand market access for Mercosur’s agricultural exports while aligning with EU tariff structures.

Sustainability: Both blocs committed to following the Paris Agreement, combating deforestation, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The EU committed to using data from Mercosur authorities to assess Mercosur’s compliance with the requirements established by European bloc legislation. 

Challenges Ahead

The signing of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement represents a significant milestone. However, the agreement may face political challenges in the future. The EU member states and the European Parliament must review and approve the final text. France and Poland are likely to express opposition to the agreement. Additionally, the Mercosur nations will need to ratify the agreement in their respective congresses.

Implications for the United States

The EU-Mercosur trade agreement introduces competitive challenges for U.S. agricultural exporters by granting Mercosur countries preferential access to European markets and strengthening the EU’s position in Mercosur. Commodities such as beef (Fig. 1), corn/peanuts (Fig. 2), and soybeans (Fig 3) will face increased competition, with Mercosur benefiting from reduced tariffs and expanded quotas in the EU. At the same time, the agreement allows European goods to gain a stronger foothold in Mercosur countries, reducing U.S. export opportunities in high-value sectors like processed goods and dairy. The deal further challenges the U.S.’s ability to compete globally by setting a precedent for trade norms.

Figure 1 – 2023 Livestock Export Values by Product and Region (FOB, $ Millions)

Figure 2 – 2023 Crop Export Values by Product and Region (FOB, $ Millions)

Figure 3 – 2023 Soybeans Export Values by Product and Region (FOB, $Millions)

^[1] Sources: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/mercosur/eu-mercosur-agreement/factsheets-and-guides_en

https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2024-12/entenda-como-ficam-exportacoes-agricolas-apos-acordo-mercosul-ue

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Calil, Yuri, and Pancho Abello. “EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement.” Southern Ag Today 4(52.4). December 26, 2024. Permalink

In Part 1, we examined the importance of international markets for cotton growers amid a significant decline in U.S. cotton processing capacity. Since 1995, U.S. cotton mill use has plummeted by 84%, reaching 1.85 M bales in the 2023 crop season—the lowest level in over a century. During this period, Brazil’s production surged, enabling it to surpass the U.S. in cotton exports. In this second part, we briefly analyze yield and production trends in both countries, exploring their potential impact on future exports.

After the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) came into effect in 1995, U.S. cotton production averaged 17.1 million bales annually. For the 2024/25 crop season, the USDA estimates production at 14.5 million bales (Fig. 1), reflecting an improvement over the past two years. However, untimely rains have hindered optimal crop development in Texas, the largest cotton-producing state. In 2023, Brazil outpaced the U.S. in cotton production (Fig. 1), with USDA forecasting a harvest of 16.7 million bales for the 2024/25 crop season – nearly nine times the amount produced in 1995. This growth in Brazil is primarily due to land expansion and yield improvements.

Figure 1 – Cotton Production in the U.S. and Brazil: 1960 – 2024. 

Brazil’s cotton acreage has expanded by 71% since 1995. Most Brazilian cotton is grown as a double crop, following soybean harvest. Cotton competes for land with corn, allowing farmers to benefit from fiber-food diversification. This year, low corn prices prompted growers to shift more acreage to cotton, resulting in a 16.8% increase in planted area. 

Post-ATC, Brazil began outperforming the U.S. in cotton yield. Enhanced farming practices and the introduction of transgenic cotton seeds in the late 2000s significantly boosted productivity. Brazilian yield soared from 323.9 lbs./ac in 1995 to 1,705 lbs./ac in 2023 – a fivefold increase. In contrast, U.S. cotton yields have plateaued around 846.5 lbs./ac since 2004 (Fig. 2), a notable achievement considering the challenging weather conditions faced by U.S. producers.  

Figure 2 – U.S. and Brazil Cotton Yields. 

Brazil’s soil and climate favor cotton expansion, signaling a promising export future. However, the profitability of second-season corn often influences farmers’ decisions to plant cotton. Expanding cotton beyond traditional areas is limited by the need for specialized infrastructure, such as cotton gins and storage facilities. Moreover, cotton demands more sophisticated technology and a longer growing season than corn, adding climatic risk to production. Despite these challenges, Brazil has made notable progress. In 2023, the country achieved a milestone by exporting cotton to Egypt, showcasing the enhanced quality of its fiber. Additionally, a new export route through the port of Salvador, strategically closer to the key cotton region of western Bahia, was established to alleviate bottlenecks at Santos, Brazil’s main export hub.

Brazil is poised to contend for the top position in global cotton sales. Preliminary analysis indicates that cotton remains more profitable than corn in the country. Despite narrowing margins for Brazilian cotton producers, a modest increase in acreage is expected for the next cycle. Cotton prices on ICE Futures in New York have fallen by 20% since February, now trading around $0.70 per pound. Meanwhile, the dollar’s 12% appreciation against the Brazilian real has bolstered Brazil’s price competitiveness, mitigating the impact of falling cotton prices in the country. Although recent droughts in the U.S. have curtailed production, Brazil’s surging output has halted the effects on global prices. Monitoring Brazil’s cotton market provides valuable insights into global price trends and affects marketing strategies for Southern U.S. growers.

References. 

FAS/USDA/PSD. PSD Data Sets. Retrieved from: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home[Accessed September 18, 2024].

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Cali, Yuri, and Rachel Judd. “Shifting Winds: The Changing Landscape of Cotton Production and Exports in the U.S. and Brazil (Part 2).” Southern Ag Today 4(40.4). October 3, 2024. Permalink

The United States has led world cotton exports since the 1980s. After the 1990s, the U.S. shipped most of its cotton production to foreign markets. As domestic processing capacity shrank,  U.S. cotton farmers became more dependent on international markets. Brazil expanded cotton production and exports in this context, challenging the U.S. leadership in cotton. We briefly contrast the U.S. and Brazilian cotton markets in two parts: the first highlights trade and the second production.  

The importance of international markets for U.S. cotton farmers has grown in recent decades. In 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO) implemented the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). The ATC gradually phased out quotas on textile imports over ten years. Since the ATC’s implementation, U.S. exports jumped from 37% to 72% of total supply in 2023, underscoring the U.S.’s competitiveness overseas. Brazil exhibited a similar trajectory, reaching 66% of its total supply exported in 2023. Total supply includes beginning stocks, production, and imports. Figure 1 illustrates the upward trend of export relevance to cotton farmers. 

Figure 1 – Cotton Exports as a Percentage of Total Supply. 

Brazil surpassed U.S. cotton exports in 2023. The U.S. exported 11.75 M bales in the 2023 crop season, and Brazil shipped 12.1 M bales, leading cotton exports for the first time (USDA, 2024). Figure 2 shows the growth of Brazilian exports while U.S. exports stagnated. Factors such as Asian demand, favorable exchange rates, government support, and competitive prices fueled Brazilian exports. The U.S.-China trade war (2018-19) further shifted trade dynamics. 

Figure 2 – U.S. and Brazil Cotton Exports. 

Before the U.S.-China trade war, China ranked third among the largest importers; today, it tops the list. China now serves as the primary destination for U.S. and Brazilian cotton. According to U.N. Comtrade (2024), Brazil’s share of the Chinese market surged from 9% in 2014 to 37% in 2023, matching the U.S.^[1] From 2022 to 2023, Brazilian cotton shipped to China jumped 49%, while U.S. exports dropped 33%. However, in the first half of 2024, the U.S. increased its exports to the Asian country by 79% compared to the same period last year. 

The continued growth of Brazil’s cotton exports will likely challenge U.S. dominance further. Understanding the surge in Brazilian supply is particularly relevant for Southern growers, which are facing prices below $0.70 per pound, less than half of the May 2022 peak. Also, modest economic growth and high interest rates have constrained consumer spending worldwide, depressing the global demand for cotton. In part 2, we will review yield and production trends and how they may shape the export outlook. 

References. 

FAS/USDA/PSD. PSD Data Sets. Retrieved from: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home[Accessed August 22, 2024].

U.N. Comtrade. Trade Data. Retrieved from: https://comtradeplus.un.org/ [Accessed August 29, 2024].

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^[1]. Market share is calculated from cotton quantity. The analysis with the U.S. Comtrade Database used HS 5201 cotton (not carded or combed). 

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Cali, Yuri, and Rachel Judd. “Shifting Winds: The Changing Landscape of Cotton Production and Exports in the U.S. and Brazil (Part 1).” Southern Ag Today 4(36.4). September 5, 2024. Permalink