Author: Yuri Clemets Daglia Calil

Cattle prices have reached record highs, and the cattle herd is the smallest since the 1950s. USDA predicts high domestic prices will result in increasing imports in the coming years. The U.S. is an attractive market, particularly for lean beef trimmings for ground beef. This article briefly discusses the recent spike in live animals, fresh/chilled, and frozen meat imports.  

During the first half of 2024, imports of beef and live cattle soared. From January to June 2024, the U.S. imported 175,441 more head of cattle than in the same period last year, a 19% increase, reaching 1.12 million animals (Fig. 1). Over the same span, imported Fresh/Chilled and Frozen beef rose 11% and 29%, totaling 331,550 and 365,067 metric tons (MT), respectively (Fig. 1). Tight lean supplies along with high domestic beef prices help explain the growth in foreign acquisitions. 

As the U.S. cattle herd declines, live animal imports have increased, mostly from Mexico (Fig. 2). Drought in Mexico and high U.S. cattle prices helped fueled more U.S. feeder cattle imports. In 2023, Mexican sales to the U.S. jumped 43%.  That is 375,879 more head of cattle than in 2022. The Mexican herd has been stable recently, with FAS-PSD/USDA forecasting 0.4% growth in 2024.

Imported fresh or chilled beef has been growing over the past decade (Fig. 3). In 2023, the U.S. imported more than double the quantity it did in 2013 (Fig. 3). During this period, Canada provided, on average, half of the U.S. imported fresh/chilled meat while Mexico had, on average, 34% of market share. FAS-PSS/USDA predicts Canada stocks will drop 2% in 2024, down to 11.06 million head. 

The amount of foreign frozen beef increased by 20% from 2022 to 2023, totaling 0.57 MMT last year (Fig. 3). In 2013, Australia and New Zealand each held 41% of the frozen imported beef market. However, their market shares declined to 28% and 29% over the last decade. A two-year drought (2019-20) affected Australia’s supply. Since 2020, shipments from Brazil expanded, reaching 90,303 MT in 2023, representing 16% of the market share. When China temporarily banned Brazilian beef imports in 2021, Brazil diverted its products to other countries, including the U.S. According to FAS-PSD/USDA, Brazil’s (-0.92%) and New Zealand’s (-1.66%) cattle herds are expected to decrease in 2024, while Australia’s stock is projected to increase by 4.93%.

U.S. beef imports are likely to continue ahead of last year as fewer cows are culled, and lean beef supplies continue to shrink.  Drought in Mexico will be a major factor in feeder cattle imports in coming months.

Figure 1. The U.S. Total Imported of Live Animals, Fresh/Chilled and Frozen Beef, Quantity: Jan – Jun 2023 vs. Jan – Jun 2024. 

Figure 2. U.S. Live Cattle Imports from Canada and Mexico, 2013-2023. 

Figure 3. The U.S. Total Imported Fresh/Chilled and Frozen Beef, Quantity: 2013-2023 

References

FAS-PSD/USDA (2024). PSD Reports. Livestock and Poultry. Retrieved from:   https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

FAS-USDA (2024). Standard Query. Retrieved from: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/ExpressQuery1.aspx

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Calil, Yuri. “U.S. Beef Imports: A Quick Look at Recent Trends.” Southern Ag Today 4(35.2). August 27, 2024. Permalink

Total beef production can be defined as the number of animals slaughtered times the average dressed weight. I’ll briefly discuss the steer dressed weight in this article, emphasizing its recent surprising behavior. Dressed weight corresponds to the weight of the carcass minus feet, head, hide, and organs (ERS/USDA). Figure 1 shows the atypical seasonal pattern so far in 2024 for the U.S. federally inspected weekly average steer dressed weight. The blue line exhibits the 2024 counter-season pattern when contrasted with 2023 (dotted line) and the 2018-2022 average (red line).

Following a record high for the first week of January (937 lb./head), the dressed weight experienced a gradual decline until the fifth week of 2024, when it reached 909 lb./head. Winter weather helps explain this fall at the beginning of the year. However, instead of continuing to decrease, the dressed weight unexpectedly surged, reaching record highs for weeks 9 to 16. During this period (weeks 9 to 16), the steer’s average dressed weight was 921 lb./head, tallying 25 lb./head heavier than in 2023 and 32 lb./head more than the previous five years’ average.

One of the key factors contributing to the recent increase in dressed weight is the surge in days on feed. The number of cattle on feed (COF) for over 120 days significantly increased, exceeding 4.9 million head in April, up by about half a million from last year. Meanwhile, the COF, for over 90 days, plateaued at around 6.6 million heads since February. As the cost of gain has dropped, producers tend to increase weights. But, keeping the yard full and packers slowing harvest schedules may be more important factors in dressed weights.  One by-product of heavier weights and more days on feed is the percent of carcasses grading Prime.  In fact, the percent of Prime carcasses jumped from 9.9 percent in the first week to 11.4 percent in the last week of April 2024 (Figure 2). More Yield Grade 4’s and 5’s is another by-product, but that is another subject.   

In the short run, the dressed weight shows a counter-season pattern. Nevertheless, in the long run, the steer dressed weight exhibits an upward trend. Figure 3 illustrates this behavior, displaying an average increase of 4.95 pounds for every additional year (linear regression, dotted line). In 50 years, the average dressed weight has grown by approximately 30%. It means that nowadays, three steers produce almost the same amount as four steers in the seventies. Technological advancements, such as in nutrition, management, and genetics, help explain this phenomenal growth. 

Figure 1 – Steer Dressed Weight, Federally Inspected, Weekly

Figure 2 – Beef Graded Prime as Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly

Figure 3 – Steer Dressed Weight, Federally Inspected, Yearly

References

AMS/USDA. (2024, May 10). Retrieved from: https://publicdashboards.dl.usda.gov/t/MRP_PUB/views/LPMeatGradingDashboard/GradeData?%3Aembed=y&%3Aiid=1&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

ERS/USDA. (2024, May 10). Retrieved from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=77827

NASS/USDA. (2024, May 10). Retrieved from: https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

In the previous SAT livestock article, Dr. Griffith asked about the girls’ whereabouts. Last week, the USDA/NASS released the 2022 Agricultural Census. Every five years, the Census takes a snapshot of U.S. agricultural operations. There is a wealth of interesting insights in the census data.  The data also sheds light on the structural changes in beef cow operations. The decrease in beef cow ranches could slow future herd expansion. 

Figure 1 highlights the decline in beef and milk cow farms. Between 2017 and 2022, 106,844 beef cow ranches disappeared, a 15 percent drop. In the same period, milk cow farms decreased by 34 percent. In contrast to the 2012 drought, we have fewer beef cow ranches to rebuild the herd, making it more challenging to find our girls. The contractions in cow farms are steeper than the overall number of farmers, which has declined by 6.9 percent, according to USDA/NASS. 

Figure 1 – Number of Cow Farms: 2002 – 2022.

Although there has been a decline in beef cow farms, the Census has reported an increase of 1,034 ranches with more than 500 head (Fig. 2). From 2017 to 2022, the beef cow herd has decreased by 2.5 million head. However, there has been an increase of 839,603 head in farms with more than 500 head. It indicates industry consolidation, providing insights into where we may find our girls.   

Figure 2 – Number of Beef Cow Farms by Herd Size: 2017 – 2022.

Beef cow farms shrunk across all farm size categories (Fig. 3). Most beef cow ranches are between 10 and 49.9 acres. Between 2017 and 2022, this category displayed the smallest drop, 9 percent, showing its resilience. But, during this period, the extremes recorded the most significant declines, producers with 1 to 10 acres declined by 23 percent, and 1000 to 2000 acres ranches declined by 20 percent. Regardless of the production scale, environmental, and economic factors affected beef cow ranches’ survivorship.

Figure 3 – Number of Beef Cow Farms by Herd Size: 2017 – 2022.

The 2022 USDA/NASS Agricultural Census reported a decline in beef cow operations from 2017 to 2022.  The census also reported some growth in larger operations.  The effect of fewer total operations on the speed of herd rebuilding remains to be seen.

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Calil, Yuri. “Ag Census Reveals Fewer Beef Cow Farms.” Southern Ag Today 4(8.2). February 20, 2024. Permalink

Lamb and mutton production has followed the usual historical pattern this year, hitting a peak in Spring and increasing from Summer lows this Fall. Production peaked at the end of the first quarter, outpacing 2022 numbers. Then, production declined, reaching a low in July. In recent weeks production has exceeded that of 2022.  You’ll notice the sharp production decline in the chart indicating the Thanksgiving shortened work week.

From January to November 2023, federally inspected (FI) lamb and mutton production totaled 102.1 million pounds. This represents a 2.7 percent drop compared to the same period of 2022. Despite that production decline, the number of sheep and lambs slaughtered jumped 3.4 percent, from 1.38 to 1.63 million head. Weight is the crux of the matter. Average FI live weight declined by 6.3 percent. Over the abovementioned period, the average sheep and lamb live weight dropped from 132.7 to 124.3 pounds. Likewise, dressed weight has decreased, on average, by 6%. Lighter weights reflect more, lighter hair sheep, lambs going to non-traditional markets at lighter slaughter weights, and likely fewer fed in feedlots this year.

Total supplies include imports and cold storage stocks. The cold storage reached 26.1 million pounds in October, 9 percent less than the same month in 2022. Lamb and mutton imports plummeted 17.4 percent so far this year. From January to September 2023, the U.S. imported 174 million pounds. The country brought in 211 million pounds during the same period last year.

Live lamb prices collapsed midway through 2022 and have spent most of this year trying to recover.  By mid-year 2023 lamb prices had recovered to exceed those of 2022. After that, national negotiated live prices have hovered at around $200 per cwt.  Even though prices have begun to decline in recent weeks, tighter overall supplies from domestic production, reduced imports, and less in cold storage have boosted prices above year ago levels.

There appears to be renewed interest in lamb production in the South, based on questions some of us livestock economists here at SAT receive.  Price recovery should continue that interest over time and provide a boost to those who have started production.

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Clemets Daglia Calil, Yuri. “Lamb And Mutton Production Shrinks This Year.” Southern Ag Today 3(48.2). November 28, 2023. Permalink