Category: Crop Marketing

In 2025, U.S. peanut planted area reached its highest mark since 1991, at 1.95 million acres, as was confirmed by the recently released Crop Production Annual Summary. This increase in peanut acreage was driven by a 70,000-acre jump in Georgia and a 45,000-acre increase in Texas. Mississippi was the only major peanut-growing state that had a decrease in peanut planted area compared to 2024. At the end of the 2025 growing season, 97.6% of the area planted was harvested, which was the highest rate since 2014.

Figure 1: 2025 Peanut Yield by State (lb./acre) and Percent Change from 2024 

The U.S. had a middling peanut yield, averaging 3,767 lb. per acre (Figure 1). While this yield was 1% higher than 2024, it falls about 130 lb. per acre below the previous five-year average. Georgia – the leading producing peanut state – averaged 4,050 lb. per acre, which marks a 7% increase from last year’s value, but still 12% below the high in 2012. Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi observed similar yield increases. Oklahoma had a small increase of just 2%, but the second-highest yield on record for the state. In contrast, Texas had a significant decrease in yield, at 2,450 lb. per acre, the smallest state yield since 1995, when Texas farmers produced 2,000 lb. per acre.

Figure 2: Peanut Production, Disappearance, and Ending Stocks by Year

Overall, peanut production was lower than expected by about 110 thousand tons from what was forecast in September (Rabinowitz, 2025). However, at an estimated 3.59 million tons in 2025, total production was still up 11%, and edged out the 2017 total of 3.56 million tons for the highest on record (Figure 2). While total peanut disappearance is forecast to increase 6% for the 2025-26 marketing year, it is expected to fall short of production, leading to a 24% increase in ending stocks. As we look into 2026, peanut prices are lower than last year, but competing crops’ prices are not looking any better. Corn prices are slightly lower than they were last year in mid-January, with September futures prices down to around $4.40 per bushel. December cotton futures are in the 68-cent-per-lb range, similar to this point last year. As a result, I expect that we will see another sizeable peanut planted area in 2026.

References

Rabinowitz, Adam. “Will the 2025 Peanut Crop Set a New Record?” Southern Ag Today 5(44.3). October 29, 2025. https://southernagtoday.org/2025/10/29/will-the-2025-peanut-crop-set-a-new-record/    

USDA-ERS. Oil Crops Outlook. January 14, 2026. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb08p

USDA-NASS. Crop Production Annual Summary. January 12, 2026. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k3569432s

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Coming off record peanut production, where do we go in 2026?” Southern Ag Today 6(5.3). January 28, 2026. Permalink

With the continued growth of agricultural production in Brazil, it is increasingly important for U.S. row crop producers to monitor crop conditions there, as the two countries compete directly in global markets. With Brazil located in the Southern Hemisphere, its growing season runs opposite that of the United States, so soybean harvest in Brazil is just beginning, with corn, cotton, and other crops to follow later in the U.S. winter and spring. This article provides an update on current estimates and crop progress for the Brazilian production season based on the January WASDE report from USDA and other sources.

In Brazil, soybean planting typically runs from September through December, with harvest of early-planted soybeans beginning in January. While some regions experienced early-season planting delays in 2025 due to irregular rainfall, planting progressed strongly later in the season and was largely completed on schedule. As of January 10, soybean harvest has begun in select areas, though progress remains below 1% nationally.

 The USDA is currently projecting Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, up from 171.5 million metric tons last year. If realized, this would represent another record level of production. Continued expansion of Brazil’s soybean sector is being driven by several factors, including the implementation of a new B15 biodiesel mandate and strong demand from China. Brazil is also expected to remain the world’s leading soybean exporter, with projected exports of 114 million metric tons, compared to 42.86 million metric tons for the United States. Brazil’s growing share of the Chinese import market will continue to pose a competitive challenge for U.S. soybean producers.

Brazil, unlike the United States, can produce two corn crops per year. The first corn crop is planted from October through December, with harvest beginning in February, and it has historically accounted for the majority of Brazilian corn production. Over the past 15 years, however, growth in Brazil’s corn output has been driven primarily by expansion of the second corn crop (safrinha) (Figure 1). This second crop is planted following the harvest of early-season soybeans in January and February and is harvested from June through September.

The 2024/25 crop year was a strong production year for Brazilian corn. However, the USDA currently projects 2025 corn production at 131 million metric tons, approximately 2 percent lower than last year. This outlook is driven primarily by expectations of lower yields associated with La Niña conditions. It is important to note that the second corn crop, which in recent years has accounted for approximately 79 percent of total Brazilian corn production, has not yet been planted this year, meaning production estimates could change significantly as the season progresses. In addition, early-season delays in soybean planting could delay harvest, which in turn may reduce the ability to plant the second-crop corn within the optimal planting window, increasing downside production risk.

Finally, the Brazilian cotton crop is planted from December through February and harvested from May through September. The USDA projects Brazilian cotton production to increase to 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year and 28 percent from 2023. For the first time in 2024, Brazil surpassed the United States as the world’s leading cotton exporter and is projected to maintain that position during the current crop year. Improvements in cotton quality have been a key driver of growing global demand for Brazilian cotton. In addition, ongoing uncertainty in global trade has further supported demand, as importing countries seek to diversify their supplier base. For U.S. cotton producers, Brazil will remain a major competitor, with higher production levels contributing to increased global cotton stocks.

With Brazil remaining a major competitor to U.S. agricultural exports, it is important for producers to know where to find reliable information on Brazilian production. The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)report remains the primary source of supply and demand data for major commodities in the United States and globally. Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) also publishes production estimates through its Agricultural Information Portal, which contains a wide range of useful data. Although the website is in Portuguese, most internet browsers offer built-in translation tools that allow producers to navigate the information easily. As always, your state Extension crop marketing specialist is an excellent source of timely analysis and interpretation of these data.

Figure 1. Brazilian Corn Production by Corn Crop 

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Maples, William E. “Brazilian Crop Progress: What U.S. Producers Should Watch.” Southern Ag Today 6(4.3). January 21, 2026. Permalink

On Monday, January 12, 2026, the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released with some unexpected projections.  A record corn crop is even larger than expected, now projected at 17 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior month.  This is a result of a record yield of 186.5 bushels per acre on a record 91.3 million harvested acres.  While total use was also increased to 16.4 billion bushels, the stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 13.6%, up from 12.5% a month earlier, and up from 10.3% compared to 2024/25.  

It’s been well documented in previous Southern Ag Today articles that the stocks-to-use ratio is a good predictor of corn marketing year average prices.  Thus, the increase in the ratio is expected to result in a decrease in price.  In fact, the corn futures market responded with an immediate sharp decline on Monday.  The pre-report price of the March corn futures was $4.474/bu, which by close ended the day down 26 cents at $4.214/bu.  As a result, most of the gains that had accrued in this contract since the low price of $4.122 was projected on August 12, 2025, have since been returned.  The USDA did raise the marketing year price projections for 2025/26 to $4.10, although this is still down 14 cents from the 2024/25 price of $4.24.

Soybean prices were also affected by the WASDE release, with March soybean futures falling 20.2 cents from a pre-WASDE release price of $10.692/bu to $10.49/bu at close.  This was on news that soybean supply for 2025/26 is 17 million bushels higher than estimated in December.  Yield remained at a record 53 bushels per acre, but harvested acres increased to 80.4 million, resulting in about 9 million bushels of additional production.  Beginning stocks for 2025/26 were also adjusted up about 9 million bushels since the prior month estimates.  On top of supply increases, total use dropped 43 million bushels, driven largely by a 60 million bushel drop in exports due to higher production and competition from Brazil.  The resulting stocks-to-use ratio increased to 8.2% for 2025/26, up from the 6.7% projected in December.  The USDA also adjusted the 2025/26 marketing year average price estimate down 30 cents to $10.20/bu.

All was not completely bearish for southern agriculture, though, as Cotton markets remained stable with March futures contracts staying just under $0.65/lb.  The WASDE report showed a lower expected yield of 856 lbs/acre on 7.8 million harvested acres.  This reduced production estimates to 13.92 million bales.  Meanwhile, total use was stable at 13.8 million bales.  The USDA now projects the 2025/26 marketing year average price for upland cotton at $0.61/lb.  The challenge for producers is that this report does not make planting decisions and marketing for 2026 any easier.  With a solid marketing plan, it’s best to avoid reactionary decisions to market movers like this and focus on executing the existing plan (see https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/07/a-new-year-a-better-marketing-plan-for-the-farm/), which should account for the ups and downs in commodity markets.  

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Rabinowitz, Adam. “Surprise! January WASDE Report Moves Corn and Soybeans Lower – Cotton Flat.” Southern Ag Today 6(3.3). January 14, 2026. Permalink

Every January, there is talk of New Year’s resolutions—a time to commit to improvements and set new goals. While health and personal finance often top the list of resolutions, there is no reason not to think about the farm business and marketing commitments in the same way. Farm profitability depends on effective management across many areas. Producers devote significant time and effort to decisions that affect crop production, but just as important is having a marketing plan for how the crop will be sold. Marketing is a continuous process that can span multiple production years, but it should be revisited for possible updating. With a solid marketing plan, producers can approach selling their crop as a year-round process rather than a single decision at one point in the year. This article highlights key considerations for developing a successful marketing strategy. 

First, it is important to understand what a marketing plan is not. It is not a one-time silver bullet that guarantees sales at the highest price. While some producers may ‘beat’ the market in certain years, few can do so consistently. Commodity prices reflect supply and demand fundamentals, but in the short run, they are influenced by unpredictable events and new information. Even long-term outlooks are subject to shocks such as trade wars or other geopolitical developments. Expecting a marketing plan to always capture the top of the market sets up unrealistic goals. Instead, the value of a marketing plan lies in its ability to manage risk through consistent, disciplined decisions.

Every marketing plan should be anchored in the farm’s business goals. Those goals set the operation’s risk tolerance, cash-flow needs, and planning horizon. A producer nearing retirement may prioritize capital preservation, while a younger producer focused on growth may accept more price variability to preserve upside and liquidity. The plan should explicitly tie tactics to goals and assess which risks (price, basis, yield, liquidity, etc.) would most threaten those goals. In short, the marketing plan should serve the business plan, not the other way around.

Cost of production is the foundation of any marketing plan. Without a current, credible breakeven, you can’t judge whether a sale protects margin. Prices are volatile and mostly outside the producer’s control, so the most reliable gains come from managing inputs and operating efficiently. A sound approach is to build price objectives directly from breakeven, setting a minimum price that locks in a base margin.  Additional targets can then be layered at predefined margin levels (for example, breakeven + $0.20 and + $0.40) based on the farm’s goals and cash-flow needs. 

Marketing plans are most effective when they encourage proactive, rather than reactive, sales. Often, the worst sale is a forced sale, such as selling grain at harvest due to limited storage or pulling grain from the bin to meet a loan payment. Coordinating decision dates with price targets allows sales to be spread throughout the year. Crop markets frequently show seasonal strength in spring and early summer, making that window a natural fit for higher targets. Extending the marketing window, considering preharvest sales within the operation’s risk tolerance, and using crop insurance to backstop commitments can all help create more opportunities to lock in margin. Maintaining strong relationships with local buyers can also expand contract options and delivery flexibility.

Finally, it is essential to document the reasoning behind every marketing decision. A simple decision log noting the trigger, target price, quantity, tool, and rationale can reinforce discipline when action is required. The biggest threats to good marketing decisions are emotion, fear of making a mistake, and the temptation to hold out for just a little more. If a sale aligns with business goals and protects margin above breakeven, it is a sound decision, even if prices later move higher. Long-term success comes from steady, margin-protecting progress, not perfection on every sale. Now is an excellent time to make a New Year’s resolution for the farm by committing to a clear, disciplined marketing strategy for 2026 and beyond.

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Maples, Will. “A New Year, A Better Marketing Plan for the Farm.” Southern Ag Today 6(2.3). January 7, 2026. Permalink

From October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025, the U.S. federal government was largely shut down until a congressional stalemate was resolved involving appropriations legislation. The 43-day duration of this shutdown was unprecedented, but some of its effects are taking even longer to resolve.

The agricultural marketing implications of the federal shutdown included the suspension of important public agricultural data, especially near term (i.e., weekly) data.  Such data are important for characterizing near term influences on cotton prices.  For example, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) publishes a weekly export sales report for cotton (and other row crops) which serves as a useful indicator of export demand.  As displayed in Figure 1, cotton weekly export sales in relation to nearby ICE cotton futures are helpful in explaining or predicting export quantities demanded.  

USDA FAS weekly export sales reports resumed on November 13, but export data picked up where it left off (i.e., for September 18).  Even with issuing semi-weekly reports to catch up, the normal one-week lag schedule won’t be achieved until January 8, 2026.  The one-week lag schedule has the most value as a current demand indicator.  But instead of a 43-day delay, we are really dealing with a 112-day delay (September 18 to January 8) until a full return to normal reporting.  Thus for over a hundred days, the only market participants with knowledge of the current export demand picture were the merchandizers.

 For another example, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes weekly “Commitment of Traders” (COT) data on the positions of index funds and hedge funds in agricultural futures markets (Figure 2).  The changes in these speculative futures positions have near term value in explaining fluctuations in ICE cotton futures.  Like the cotton export sales data, the COT data have little explanatory power outside of a week old.

The 2025 Commitment of Traders (COT) report schedule saw significant revisions due to the federal funding lapse, leading to catch-up publications throughout the end of 2025.  Reports for late October and November 2025 were pushed to December 2025, with the CFTC increasing frequency until a return to the normal reporting schedule on December 29, 2025.  Beyond the direct shutdown (7 to 8 weeks) the CFTC near term publication schedule won’t be fully restored until after a 17-week period.

Thus, the disruption of valuable near-term cotton marketing data flow has been quite long, but as we enter the new year, we are finally back to a normal reporting period.

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Robinson, John. “An End to the Disruption of Two Key Weekly Federal Crop Reports.” Southern Ag Today 5(53.3). December 31, 2025. Permalink