Growing demand for renewable fuel is reshaping crop decisions across the Southern United States, where farmers are rapidly expanding winter canola production. Traditionally grown in the U.S. Northern Plains, canola is now gaining traction in Southern double-crop rotations—driven largely by a strategic partnership between Bunge, Chevron, and Corteva Agriscience. Interest in winter canola production has been focused on the potential for winter oilseeds to contribute to the U.S Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge goal of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050.
The partnership combines Bunge’s grain origination and processing, Chevron’s fuel distribution, and Corteva’s proprietary genetics to position winter canola as a leading feedstock for renewable fuel. Central to this strategy is a new oilseed processing facility in Destrehan, Louisiana, which is slated to begin processing canola by 2026.
To meet projected demand by 2026, the strategic partnership launched a pilot program in the 2023–24 marketing year, contracting 5,000 acres across western Kentucky and Tennessee. By 2024–25, the initiative expanded to over 35,000 acres spanning Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, and Missouri (Pioneer, 2024). Reported insured acres from USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) confirm this growth (Figure 1), with average increases of nearly 500% across Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee—highlighted by 7,500 acres in Tennessee and 25,000 in Kentucky.
Based on the anticipated crush capacity at the Destrehan, LA facility, near-term canola demand could reach 100,000 to 150,000 acres across the Southern United States. Over the longer term, the partnering companies project demand could rise to nearly 1 million acres as infrastructure and markets scale (Heslip, 2024).
Early reports from Kentucky and Tennessee suggest winter canola average yields of 40–65 bushels per acre. Contract prices for 2024 (2025 crop year) hovered around $12.00 per bushel, depending on contract timing, acres contracted, and freight costs. Gross revenue of $480-$780 per acre provides many mid-south farmers with a viable financial alternative to traditional soft red winter wheat production (Gross revenue of $420-$468; University of Kentucky and University of Tennessee 2025 Crop Budgets). Many growers report lower input costs compared to winter wheat, contributing to higher profit margins at current price levels. Currently, acreage contracts are being offered to producers for fall planting. Acreage contracts provide producers with a defined number of acres at a specified price. Production is not specified in the contract; the contract writer takes all production for the contracted acres at the set price. Before entering a production contract, producers need to fully understand the terms and conditions, including production practices, delivery, and quality specifications.
Figure 1: Canola Acres Insured (Net Reported) by State and Year
Exports are an important source of demand for U.S. cotton. From 2015-2024, the U.S. has exported an average of 13.6 million bales per year, 85% of annual cotton production (USDA FAS-PS&D). The monthly variation in U.S. cotton exports is tied to production cycles and global demand. In particular, U.S. export variation is directly tied to the U.S. production cycle, and indirectly to the production cycles of other top producing countries who are also major consumers, e.g., China, India, and Pakistan. Figure 1 shows the 10-year average (2015–2024) monthly percent of total annual U.S. cotton export value by month, along with values reported from January to April 2025. Historically, March through May are peak months for U.S. cotton exports, with March (12.5%), April (11.1%), and May (10.9%) accounting for the highest monthly average percent of total annual export value. This may indicate that the weekly export sales pace during the Spring months may be important positive determinants of March and May ICE cotton futures prices. After May, exports begin to decline, reaching their lowest point in October (4.1%). In the final months of the year, export values increase in November (5.1%) and December (7.4%).
Figure 1. Percent of Total U.S. Cotton Export Value by Month, 10-Year Average (2015-2024) and 2025 Value by Month
Data Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)
U.S. Cotton Exports to China, Canada, and Mexico
U.S. cotton exports to China follow a similar pattern as the global U.S. exports. Export values peak in March (12.1%) and reach a low in October (3.8%; Figure 2). For Canada and Mexico, export sales are more consistent month-to-month (Figure 3). The stable pattern of U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico is likely due to proximity and the U.S. being the main supplier (although Mexican domestic production would be a competitor with U.S. production). U.S. cotton exports to Canada are significantly lower in quantity and value compared to exports to China and Mexico, but are relatively stable across the calendar year, with minimal variation between months. From January to April, monthly export values remain between 7.5% and 7.9%, with a peak in May. Mexico also has consistent import levels across months, with a slight peak at 9.2% in March and September and the lowest percent in December (6.2%).
Figure 2. Percent of U.S. Cotton Export Value by Month to China, 10-Year Average (2015-2024) and 2025 Value by Month
Data Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)
Figure 3. Percent of U.S. Cotton Export Value by Month to Canada and Mexico, 10-Year Average (2015-2024) and 2025 Value by Month
Data Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)
U.S. Cotton Exports to the Rest of the World (ROW; World minus China, Canada, and Mexico)
U.S. exports to countries other than Canada, Mexico, and China grouped as the Rest of World (data not shown) follows a similar seasonal pattern as global trends displayed in figure 1. Spring marks the strongest months with March (12.9%), April (11.4%) and May (11.5%) accounting for a large portion of annual export value. However, towards the end of the year there is a significant decrease in September (4.5%), October (3.7%) and November (4.3%).
References
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)
For its first official production estimates of the new crop year, published in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA relies on the planted acreage number from the Prospective Plantingssurvey conducted in late February to mid-March and reported at the end of March. Compared to those March survey numbers, the annual Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports released by USDA at the end of June can change those numbers significantly, thus having the potential to be a major market mover.
In the May WASDE (and carried forward unchanged in the June WASDE), USDA estimated 95.3 million acres of corn for 2025 (Table 1) and harvested acres of 87.4 million (91.7% harvest rate). That compares to 90.6 million acres planted in 2024 and 82.9 million harvested (91.5% harvest rate). The average guess by traders ahead of the June Acreage report was 95.2 million corn acres planted. The Acreage report also showed U.S. farmers planted 95.2 million acres of corn for 2025, 100,000 acres below the March survey, but right on the average trade guess.
Also revised in the Acreage report was estimated acres harvested for corn. While acres planted were down only 100,000 from previous estimates, acres harvested were down 600,000. The harvested percentage dropped from 91.7% to 91.1%.
Plugging those numbers into the supply and demand balance sheet from the June WASDE, and leaving all other supply and demand factors unchanged, these new acreage numbers lower corn production for 2025 (and ending stocks) by 114 million bushels (Table 2). With use held steady and a reduction in ending stocks, days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year (a representation of the stocks-to-use ratio) decreases from a 41.3-day supply in the June WASDE down to a relatively tight 38.6-day supply.
June 1 Grain Stocks were estimated at 4.64 billion bushels of corn, 1.01 billion bushels of soybeans, and 851 million bushels of wheat. Corn stocks are down compared to a year ago while soybeans and wheat stocks are higher. Corn disappearance in the period from December 1 to June 1 was a record 7.432 billion bushels, as depicted in Figure 1 as the difference from the December 1 stock to the June 1 stock. Last year, use in that period was 7.174 billion bushels compared to the five-year average 6.937 billion bushels.
Other items in the June USDA reports focused on Soybeans and Wheat. Soybeans came in at 83.4 million acres planted, 100,000 below the March Prospective Plantings and 200,000 below average trader expectations. Soybean acres harvested were revised from 82.7 million to 82.5 million, a 200,000-acre decrease. All wheat at 45.5 million acres was up 100,000 compared to Prospective Plantings and trader expectations. All wheat harvested acres were revised downward by 600,000 acres from 37.2 million to 36.6 million.
Given the numbers reported by USDA in the 2025 Acreage report, production estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat will likely be revised lower on fewer harvested acres. However, the Grain Stocks report shows a small decrease in corn carryover and increased carryover of soybeans and wheat relative to trade expectations, implying forthcoming changes in old crop use estimates. Adding old crop ending stock adjustments to new crop production estimates, it looks like the new crop supply numbers got a little tighter for corn and wheat, and a small increase for soybeans.
Table 1. Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks from USDA and Industry Reports
June 30thAcreage and Grain Stocks
2025 Planted Acres (millions)
Planted
Average from Experts
Range from Experts
March Intentions
2024
Corn
95.2
95.2
93.8-96.0
95.3
90.6
Soybeans
83.4
83.6
83.0-85.0
83.5
87.1
All Wheat
45.5
45.4
45.0-46.0
45.4
46.1
Winter Wheat
33.3
33.3
33.0-33.4
33.3
33.4
Spring Wheat
10.0
10.1
9.8-10.2
10.0
10.6
Durum
2.1
2.0
2.0-2.1
2.0
2.1
June 1st Grain Stocks (million bushels)
June 1, 2025
Average From Experts
Range from Experts
Mar 1, 2025
Jun 1, 2024
Corn
4,644
4,648
4,459-4,955
8,151
4,997
Soybeans
1,008
971
936-1,020
1,910
970
Wheat
851
835
805-852
1,237
696
Source: USDA and DTN
Table 2. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Balance Sheet
U.S. Corn
2024/25
June WASDE2025/26
June Acreage2025/26
Planted Acreage (Mil. Acs.)
90.6
95.3
95.2
Harvested Acreage (Mil. Acs.)
82.9
87.4
86.8
Yield (Bushels)
179.3*
181.0*
181.0*
Supply —Million Bushels—
Beginning Stocks
1,763
1,365
1,365
Production
14,867
15,820*
15,706*
Imports
25
25
25
Total Supply
16,655
17,210*
17,096*
Disappearance
Domestic Use
12,640
12,785*
12,785*
Exports
2,650
2,675
2,675
Total Use
15,290*
15,460*
15,460*
Ending Stocks
1,365
1,750
1,636
Carryover/Use (days on hand)
32.6
41.3
38.6
Average Farm Price ($/Bu.)
4.35
4.20
4.20
*Record High
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and demand Estimates and Acreage 2025
Like many other agricultural sectors, there has been consolidation in United States (US) farm-level sugar production. Sugar is a unique commodity because about 56 percent of the domestic production of sugar originates from sugarbeets and 44 percent originates from sugarcane. The US domestic production of sugar has increased from 8.02 million short tons raw value (STRV) in 1997 to 9.31 million STRV in 2024, an increase of 16% (USDA ERS, 2025a). However, there are now 50 percent fewer sugarbeet and sugarcane farms in the country.
In 1997, the USDA Census of Agriculture recorded a total of 8,136 sugarbeet and sugarcane producing farms (USDA NASS, 2025). However, by 2022 that number had declined to 4,002, a decrease of over 50 percent. Figure 1 shows sugarbeet and sugarcane production from 1997 through 2024 and the number of sugarbeet and sugarcane farms recorded by the US Census of Agriculture every five years, beginning in 1997.
Figure 1. Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production and Farms.
Source: USDA ERS (2025a) and USDA NASS (2025).
Sugarbeets
From 1997 through 2022, while there was a decrease in sugarbeet farms and sugarbeet harvested acres, there was an increase in the amount of sugar produced from sugarbeets. The number of sugarbeet farms fell by 54 percent, from 7,057 farms in 1997 to only 3,257 in 2022 (Figure 1). Sugarbeet acres also fell by 20 percent from 1.43 million acres in 1997 to 1.14 million acres in 2022 (USDA ERS, 2025a). However, there was an 18% increase in sugar produced from sugarbeets during this time, with 4.39 million STRV of sugar produced from sugarbeets in 1997 and 5.19 million STRV of sugar produced from sugarbeets in 2022 (Figure 1).
These trends indicate that in 1997, the average sugarbeet farm size was 203 acres contributing to final sugar production of 622 STRV (3.06 STRV of sugar per acre). Meanwhile in 2022, the average sugarbeet farm size was 350 acres contributing to final sugar production of 1,593 STRV (4.55 STRV of sugar per acre). Thus, sugarbeet farms have become not only larger (350 acres per farm versus 203 acres per farm), but they have also become 49 percent more efficient! One reason for this increased efficiency is that all sugarbeets grown in the US have been genetically modified since 2009 (Kennedy, Schmitz and Lewis, 2020).
Sugarbeets are currently grown in four regions and 11 states: the Great Lakes (Michigan), the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota), the Great Plains (Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Wyoming), and the Far West (Idaho, Oregon, Washington).[1] Sugarbeets are grown in rotation with other crops. Historically, sugarbeet yields in the Far West have been highest. Western sugarbeet production typically utilizes irrigation, which is in contrast to the eastern regions of sugarbeet production that do not use irrigation (USDA ERS, 2025a, b). The largest region for sugarbeet production is the Upper Midwest (Minnesota and North Dakota) (USDA ERS, 2025a). The Upper Midwest represented 42 percent of sugarbeet total production in 1997 and represented 53 percent of sugarbeet total production in 2022 (USDA ERS, 2025a).
Each sugarbeet producing region has experienced both consolidation and increased efficiency over the years. For example, the number of sugarbeet farms in Michigan was 1,164 in 1997 (USDA NASS, 2025). That number decreased 43 percent by 2022 to only 663. However, the number of tons of sugarbeets harvested in 1997 was only 3.0 million, and by 2022 the state harvested 4.1 million tons of sugarbeets.
Sugarcane
Sugarcane has also experienced consolidation over the period of 1997 through 2022, where the number of sugarcane farms fell by approximately 31 percent from 1,079 in 1997 to 745 in 2022 without experiencing declines in sugar production or acres engaged in sugarcane production. Sugarcane acres actually increased by 3 percent in 2022 (913,738 acres) relative to 1997 (890,193 acres) (USDA NASS, 2025). Production of sugarcane (for sugar) also increased by approximately 11 percent to 4.06 million STRV in 2022 relative to 1997 (3.63 million STRV) (Figure 1).
These trends indicate that in 1997, the average size of a sugarcane farm was 825 acres and contributed to final sugar production of 3,365 STRV (4.08 STRV of sugar per acre). By 2022, the average sugarcane farm size was 1,226 acres and contributed to final sugar production of 5,454 STRV (4.45 STRV of sugar per acre). Thus, the sugarcane sector has seen improvements in production efficiency of approximately 9 percent over the observed period (1997-2022).
As recently as 2016, sugarcane was produced in four states (Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Texas). Sugarcane production in Hawaii and Texas ceased in 2016 and 2023, respectively. In Hawaii, rising labor and land cost were contributing factors in the closure of Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Company (HC&S) in Maui. Production in Texas ceased due to water shortages exacerbated by Mexico’s consistent failure to fulfill its treaty obligations to share irrigation water from the Rio Grande. The lack of sugarcane production due to uncertain water availability resulted in the closure of the only sugar mill in the state, Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers, Inc. Since 2017, overall sugarcane production has increased in the remaining sugarcane producing states of Louisiana and Florida, despite closure of the sugarcane industries in Hawaii and Texas. In Florida, the number of farms has actually increased from 152 to 240, with the average farm size contracting from 2,772 to 1,656 acres. However, in Louisiana, farms have decreased from 705 to 420 farms. The average size of a Louisiana farm has increased from 561 to 1,158 acres.
In Florida, sugarcane is mainly produced in organic soils along the southern and southeastern shore of Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. The decrease in Florida’s sugarcane acreage leading to 2007 reflected conversion of cropland to public water storage in response to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan and reallocation of cropland for sod production in the early 2000’s (VanWeelden et. al., 2023). Sugarcane cultivation on sandy soil is expanding as the expense of citrus cultivation has increased due to citrus greening disease (Sandhu et. al., 2024).
Sugarcane acreage across Louisiana has been expanding for the past decade, primarily because of the reduced volatility in sugar prices relative to other crops such as corn, rice, and soybeans. (Gautreaux, 2025). Louisiana sugarcane production has also expanded with the development and adoption of high-yielding sugarcane varieties and with the evolution of custom harvesting groups that induce nontraditional producers into sugarcane cultivation by alleviating concerns for those producers regarding increased capitalization costs of purchasing and maintaining specialized sugarcane harvest equipment.
[1] California is producing sugarbeets in 2025, but the processing facility will close following this crop season (https://www.smbsc.com/ourstory-2/SMBSCMediaReleaseReSpreckelsSugarCompany2025.04.22.pdf).
Kennedy, P. L., A. Schmitz, and K.L. DeLong. (2020). Biotechnology and demand concerns: the case of genetically modified US sugar beets. AgBioForum, 22(1), 49-60.
Sandhu, H., M. VanWeelden, A. Sharma, and W. Davidson. (2024). CP 03-1912: A Sugarcane Cultivar Expanding on Sand Soil in Florida, University of Florida, IFAS Extension. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/SC111 .
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (2025). U.S. Census of Agriculture, Volume 1, Chapter 1: U.S. National Level Data. Retrieved from: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2022/index.php .
VanWeelden, M., C. Kammerer, W. Davidson, M. Baltazar, and R. Rice. (2023). Sugarcane Variety Census: Florida 2022, Sugar Journal 86 (2), July 2023.
Delberto, Michael, Brian Hilbun, and Karen L. DeLong. “Sugarbeet and Sugarcane Production and Farm Trends.” Southern Ag Today 5(26.3). June 25, 2025. Permalink
The USDA’s June Supply and Demand report (WASDE) is generally characterized as a “quiet” report with few, if any, changes from the previous month. That held true for the U.S. corn and soybean outlook. The only adjustments USDA made to the 2025/26 corn balance sheet included a 50-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks. This reflected an increase in exports for 2024/25. With no demand changes for 2025/26, ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers was unchanged at $4.20 per bushel. There were no changes this month to the U.S. 2025/26 soybean outlook, with new crop ending stocks remaining at 295 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel. On the World balance sheet, Brazil’s production estimate was unchanged at 169 million metric tons and Argentina’s was also unchanged at 49 million metric tons.
One of the big surprises in the June WASDE was the aggressive cut to 2025 long-grain rice production. Not waiting for the June Acreage survey, USDA made note of “the excessive spring precipitation in the Delta” and anticipated this would result in lower rice acreage in the region compared to the March Prospective Plantings. On the long-grain balance sheet, production was lowered by a sizeable 7.5 million cwt. (-4.5%) this month to 159.7 million cwt (see Table 1). Partially offsetting the sharp production cut was a 1 million cwt. increase in imports and a 3 million cwt. reduction in domestic and residual use. The net result was a 3.5 million cwt reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks to 34 million. This is slightly below the 35.3 million ending stocks of 2024/25. The projected 2025/26 long-grain season-average farm price was increased by $0.50 per cwt to $12.50 or $5.63 per bushel.
In another surprise move, USDA wasted no time lowering their expectations for the 2025/26 U.S. cotton crop. Pointing to the excessive rain and planting delays in the Delta, harvested acreage was lowered 2 percent this month to 8.19 million acres (see Table 2). The national average yield for 2025/26 was reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 pounds per acre, also because of the conditions in the Delta. As a result, the production forecast was reduced 500,000 bales to 14.0 million, below the 14.4 million bales produced in 2024/25 and the second smallest crop in the past decade. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 were reduced 400,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. The net result being a 900,000 bale reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales, very close to the 4.4 million bale 2024/25 carry-over. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 was unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
As a reminder, USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30. It will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The acreage findings of the survey will be used in the July 11th WASDE. A link to the June 2025 WASDE report may be found here.
Table 1. U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Demand
2025/26
Monthly Change
unit: million cwt.
2024/25
May
June
Beginning Stocks
19.3
35.3
35.3
0.0
Production
172
167.2
159.7
(7.5)
Imports
42
43.0
44.0
1.0
Total Supply
233.3
245.5
239.0
(6.5)
Domestic Use
133
140.0
137.0
(3.0)
Exports
65
68.0
68.0
0.0
Total Use
198
208.0
205.0
(3.0)
Carry-Over
35.3
37.5
34.0
(3.5)
stocks-use %
17.8%
18.0%
16.6%
Avg. Producer Price ($/cwt.)
$ 14.20
$ 12.00
$ 12.50
$ 0.50
Avg. Producer Price ($/bu.)
$ 6.39
$ 5.40
$ 5.63
$ 0.23
PLC Reference Price ($/bu.)
$ 6.30
$ 6.30
$ 6.30
$ –
Proj. PLC Payment Rate ($/bu.)
$ –
$ 0.90
$ 0.68
$ (0.23)
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 2025
Table 2. U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand
2025/26
Monthly Change
unit: million 480# bales
2024/25
May
June
Beginning Stocks
3.15
4.80
4.40
(0.400)
Production
14.41
14.50
14.00
(0.500)
Imports
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.000
Total Supply
17.57
19.31
18.41
(0.900)
Mill Use
1.70
1.70
1.70
0.000
Exports
11.50
12.50
12.50
0.000
Total Use
13.20
14.20
14.20
0.000
Carry-Over
4.40
5.20
4.30
(0.900)
stocks-use %
33.3%
36.6%
30.3%
Avg. Producer Price ($/lb.)
$ 0.63
$ 0.62
$ 0.62
$ 0.000
Avg. Seed Cotton Price ($/lb.)
$0.3401
$ 0.3299
$ 0.3279
$ (0.002)
PLC Reference Price ($/lb.)
$0.3670
$ 0.3670
$ 0.3670
$ 0.000
Proj. PLC Payment Rate ($/lb.)
$0.0269
$ 0.0371
$ 0.0391
$ 0.002
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 2025
