Tariff escalation remains a major source of uncertainty that could substantially move corn futures markets in the coming weeks/months. Managing some futures price risk based on the current rally is worth considering given the uncertainty in corn markets. On Friday April 11, December corn futures broke through a key resistance point at $4.60/bu. For those farmers that have not started pricing the 2025 crop, December corn futures above $4.50/bu represent a good starting point to remove some futures price risk (basis could be secured now or left to be fixed at an alternative date depending on local basis offerings). Pricing into a futures market rally, through incremental sales, is a strategy worth considering, and one that will take some of the emotion out of marketing decisions. For example, starting at a December futures price of $4.50/bu, consider pricing 5% of projected 2025 production. For each additional 10-cent increase in futures price, consider establishing a futures price on an additional 5% of estimated production up to a maximum of 35% of projected 2025 production. Pricing more than 35% of the crop before June can be risky and can result in exchanging price risk for production risk or having limited production to price should a bullish weather market occur in June/July/August. The maximum amount to be priced before June can be a personal preference based on the farmers’ risk tolerance, variability in yield for the farm, and access to storage. This incremental pricing strategy would establish an average futures price of $4.80/bu on 35% of projected production if the December corn futures price rallied to $5.10/bu (Figure 1). However, it would also put some sales (10% of estimated production at an average price of $4.55/bu as of April 22) on the books if the current rally stalled or reversed. Futures prices above $4.50 plus a positive basis, which occurs in most Southern states, will result in cash prices of nearly $5.00.
Table 1. December Corn Futures Price and Sales into a Hypothetical Rising or Falling Market
The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Thursday, April 10, made a few updates to the 2024/25 balance sheets for major row crops that were generally minor adjustments to old crop estimates for the United States (U.S.). The Crop Production report was also released on April 10thwith no new data reported for row crops. Thus, the adjustments in the WASDE report were made on the use side of the balance sheet. The U.S. corn balance sheet was viewed as the most bullish with a sizable increase in the export forecast of 100 million bushels due to strong sales. The increase was partially offset by a 25-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual use due to slower disappearance, as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The net effect was ending stocks adjusted down 75 million bushels from March to 1.5 billion bushels, while and the season-average corn price was left unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. The futures market responded on April 10 with a 9-cent increase in nearby futures to $4.82 per bushel.
Soybeans saw U.S. ending stocks tighten up a little bit with an increase in crush of 10 million bushels due to higher meal domestic use and oil exports. Imports of soybean oil were adjusted up 5 million bushels resulting in a net increase in ending stocks of 5 million bushels. The season average price for soybeans remained unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. Nearby soybean futures increased $0.16 per bushel closing at $10.29 per bushel on April 10, continuing a rally after the initial shock of the April 4 tariff announcement.
The global rice market is experiencing increased production due to India’s consecutive record crops, surpassing China as the largest world rice producer. U.S. exports were adjusted down due mainly to medium grain export reduction, while the average season price stayed the same at $15.60 per cwt.
Cotton and wheat saw the most bearish adjustments to their balance sheets. Lower sales of hard red wheat led to a decrease in U.S. wheat exports by 15 million bushels, while imports increased by 10 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were lowered by 27 million bushels, but the average price stayed the same at $5.50 per bushel. Nearby futures dropped 5 cents to $5.38 per bushel on April 10. The only change made to U.S. cotton was the export forecast being lowered by 100,000 bales. However, if realized, the reduced exports would result in the largest ending stocks since 2008 other than the 2019 crop when a large crop and a drop in domestic mill use led to 7.45 million bales in ending stocks. The season average price for cotton remained at $0.63 per pound. Nearby cotton futures rallied back to $0.66 per pound before the WASDE report and did not move much immediately after the WASDE report was released.
The market appears to be reacting to the uncertainty of tariffs and potential planted acres. The USDA will shift its focus from old crop to new crop in the May WASDE report with new 2025/26 supply and use forecasts.
Table 1: USDA Changes to U.S. Balance Sheets in April WASDE Report, April 10, 2025.
CornMil. Bu.
CottonMil. Bales
RiceMil. Cwt
SoybeansMil. Bu.
WheatMil. Bu.
Beginning Stocks
—
—
—
—
—
Imports
—
—
-1
+5
+10
Domestic Use
-25
—
+3
+10
-2
Exports
+100
-0.1
-1.5
—
-15
Ending Stocks
-75
+0.10
-2.5
-5
+27
Avg. Price
—
—
—
—
—
Data Source: USDA April 2025 WASDE Note: — indicates no change from the prior month.
Searching for “Trump” and “grain market volatility” on Google will yield numerous results. While much of a grain marketer’s attention is paid to weather, production forecasts, seasonal trends, and supply and demand fundamentals, the “on-again, off-again” nature of tariffs under the current administration has added to an already volatile price environment. Instead of analyzing how tariff announcements have affected grain price volatility, this article takes an alternative approach, highlighting the major US grain-buying countries to better prepare producers for market impacts as tariffs are implemented.
The danger that tariffs pose to US agricultural commodity prices is typically linked to retaliatory tariffs or those enacted in response to US tariffs. On April 2nd, the Trump Administration announced “reciprocal tariffs” affecting nearly 90 nations. New tariffs have been added to the existing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. Tariffed countries now account for more than 77% of US corn exports, 76% of soybean exports, and 57% of wheat exports (averaged from 2020 to 2024, as shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3). While approximately 15% of US corn, 40% of US soybean, and 45% of US wheat production is exported, China accounts for 17% of corn, 53% of soybean, and 8% of wheat exports. China already announced retaliatory tariffs, which, in combination with the new Trump administration tariffs, coincided with a decline of over $0.50/bu in November 2025 soybean futures over the two days following the announcement.
As retaliatory tariffs take effect, US agricultural commodities become more expensive, reducing exports and increasing ending stocks, which subsequently lowers prices. While nations may not completely halt their purchases of US crops, they are likely to redirect demand toward competing suppliers, such as Brazil, Argentina, and the Black Sea region, if net prices (commodity price + tariffs) are lower.
Regardless of political perspective, tariffs disrupt free trade and undermine comparative advantages and efficiency. For instance, the US has a comparative advantage over most countries in corn and soybean production. When retaliatory tariffs are imposed, the demand for efficiently produced US goods, such as corn and soybeans, decreases, pushing prices down. Conversely, retaliatory tariffs restrict access to efficiently produced goods from other countries, such as fertilizers, resulting in higher prices. Traditional market indicators, such as supply and demand and exchange rates, continue to influence prices. Meanwhile, tariff-induced volatility has likely been exacerbated by artificial intelligence, which can extract insights from written and spoken media while simultaneously executing trades. Although it is nearly impossible for producers to react at the same speed, the announcement of US tariffs or foreign retaliatory tariffs may signal a need for price risk management, as the effects of new tariffs are likely bearish in the short term.
Figure 1: Average US Corn Exports by Destination (2020-2024)
Data Source: US Census Bureau Trade Data
Figure 2: Average US Soybean Exports by Destination (2020-2024)
Data Source: US Census Bureau Trade Data
Figure 3: Average US Wheat Exports by Destination (2020-2024)
On Monday, March 31st, USDA released the Prospective Plantings report. These acreage estimates are based primarily on surveys conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) from February 18 to March 18. Principal crop acres planted were projected nationally at nearly 310 million acres, down roughly 1.3 million acres compared to last year. Corn acres are estimated at 95.3 million, up 4.7 million from last year and the third highest in modern history. Soybean planted acres are estimated at 83.5 million, down almost 3.6 million from last year. Cotton acres are projected to be down 12% from last year, at 9.867 million acres, the lowest since 2015. Peanut acreage is projected at 1.95 million acres, up 8% from last year, and rice acres are projected at 2.895 million, down 1% from last year. All wheat acreage is projected at 45.35 million, down 2% from last year. The forecasts in the Prospective Plantings report confirm recent projections released at the February USDA Outlook Forum which had 2025 corn acres increasing by 3.4 million, a 3.1-million-acre reduction in soybeans, and 1.18 million fewer acres of cotton.
In fact, the USDA indicated in the Prospective Plantings report an even larger increase in corn acres compared to last year. Throughout the first quarter of 2025, new crop corn-soybean futures price ratios heavily favored corn over soybeans ranging from 2.20 to 2.31, driven by tightening U.S. and World corn stocks. In fact, the price ratio averaged 2.24 during the window of the 2025 March Prospective Plantings survey compared to 2.49 in the same time frame last year. Cotton was expected to cede acres this year due to struggling demand, intense export competition with Brazil, and lower prices compared to other commodities. All states except Arizona and Kansas are projected to reduce cotton acreage from last year. Rice acres are also expected to decline on lower prices, static input costs and fierce export competition from Asian origins. Seed availability for long-grain rice is an additional factor reducing acres. Futures price reaction from the March 31 report was subdued, with the findings in the Prospective Plantings report mostly in agreement with pre-report industry estimates. New crop (i.e., Fall 2025) corn settled one-half cent lower, soybeans 9 ¾ cents lower, cotton 17 points ($0.0017) lower, and rice 1 ½ cents per cwt. lower.
We now provide a 2025 update to a 2023 Southern Ag Today article addressing the reliability of the Prospective Plantings report (Biram and Maples, 2023). The NASS planted acreage projections across the U.S. continue to hold well with low predictive error and hold especially well for corn and soybeans over the 2016-2024 time span (Figure 1). There still remains a relatively small predictive error for rice and cotton over the same time span. The larger variance can be due to (1) the smaller sample size of farms and (2) the alternative crops available to plant in place of corn and soybeans. Most of the U.S. corn and soybean acreage is grown in the upper Midwest but tends to take up acreage across the entire U.S. which allows for a larger sample of farmers and less variance. In the south, farmers rotate corn and soybean crops with cotton, peanuts, and even some vegetables. This makes it more difficult to project acres that may shift based on rotational needs, commodity prices, input costs, and weather.
We re-investigate the difficulty in projecting acreage by choosing the subsample of southern states to see if 1) there is more variance across the changes in corn and soybean acreages given a smaller sample and 2) the pattern of acreage changes across cotton and rice still holds in the subsample. We find this to continue to hold (Figure 2). We see more differences each year between prospective and actual planted acreages in corn and soybeans across southern states, and the general pattern of differences each year for cotton and rice still holds between the full U.S. sample and the southern subsample. This implies that we should generally not expect any significant changes in harvest price expectations driven by differences in planted acreages but rather look to future market-moving events. The continuation of drought conditions in West Texas has implications for the cotton market, while prolonged drought in the western Corn Belt has implications for corn and soybean production, as evidenced in 2023 (Gardner and Biram, 2023). Looking globally, we turn to weather-related impacts to the second Brazilian corn crop, as well as a future path on trade talks with our top trading partners (i.e., Mexico, Canada, and China).
Figure 1. Comparison of Prospective vs. Actual Planted Acreage across the U.S. (2016-2025)
Figure 2. Comparison of Prospective vs. Actual Planted Acreage across Southern[1] States (2016-2025)
[1] States included are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia.
References:
Biram, Hunter, and William E. Maples. “Key Takeaways and Reliability of the 2023 Prospective Plantings Report.” Southern Ag Today 3(14.1). April 1, 2023. Permalink
Gardner, Grant, and Hunter D. Biram. “USDA Acreage Report Results: Price and Crop Insurance Impacts.” Southern Ag Today. July 3, 2023. Permalink
NASS/USDA. Prospective Plantings. National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, March 2025. Retrieved from: https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/pspl0325.pdf
With planting season underway across much of the South, and soon across the Corn Belt, one of the major questions that will impact price direction is planted acreage. At the Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) in late February, USDA projected corn area planted at 94.0 million acres, up from 90.6 million in 2024 (Figure 1). The increase in acres from 2024 to 2025 was not a surprise given recent strength in corn prices relative to that of soybeans. But, the magnitude of the increase relative to trade expectations can have an impact on futures prices.
Additional information on farmer planting intentions will be released in the March 31 Prospective Plantingsreport. This survey is administered by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) during the first two weeks in March. The next official report of planted acres is the Acreage report of June 30, an additional farmer survey of actual crop acres planted (and remaining intended).
Acres planted is a fluid variable with estimates moving from USDA’s model-based projections (February Outlook) to late-winter farmer intentions (March Prospective Plantings) to area actually planted (June Acreage). Shifts in futures prices as we move from winter to spring offer some indication of what to expect in forthcoming reports.
First, is the relationship between the numbers of the Outlook forum and the prospective plantings survey. In the 29 years since 1996 (the Freedom to Farm era, which moved away from acreage restrictions to greater flexibility in farmer planting decisions), farmer planting intentions were lower than the acreage number presented at the Outlook Forum 17 times (59%); while 12 years were higher (41%). The average for all years is 184,000 acres less of actual planted acreage compared to the Outlook forecast. Balanced against trade expectations, this would generally be seen as bullish for corn prices.
Second, do changes in futures prices affect farmer planting decisions as we move from late winter to spring? Using monthly average inflation adjusted prices of the December corn contract, there is a positive relationship between price changes and acres planted (Figure 2). Years in which the December futures contract increased from February to April tend to be correlated with an increase in acres planted relative to intended. A decline in prices from February to April is associated with fewer acres planted than intended. A rough estimate of that relationship is that a one-cent change in price changes area planted by about 9,000 acres.[1]
How does this information position us for the release of 2025 acreage numbers? First, the greatest likelihood is for corn acres intended to come in lower than the projections of the Outlook Forum (bullish). Next, at the time of this writing, the average 2025 December corn futures closing price in March is 451.77 compared to 469.67 in February. If this relationship holds, that is, if the average price in April is still below the February price, that suggests a further reduction in acres from intended to actual (bullish).
Of course, a multitude of other supply and demand variables will ultimately influence the harvest price of corn. Extremes in the change in corn acres planted in response to price came in years of dramatic shifts in demand: 2007 (+2.4 million acres at the beginning of the biofuel era) and 2020 (-5.0 million acres, Covid). Developments related to tariffs and trade may be the catalyst for magnified response in the dynamics of price and acreage in 2025.
Figure 1. U.S. Corn Acres: Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF), Prospective Plantings (PP), and Acreage
Figure 2. Corn planted acres in response to a change in price
[1] For more on farmers’ response to price shocks on planting decisions, see “Estimating Supply Elasticities for Corn in the United States: Accounting for Prospective Plantings”, Raghav Goyal, Michael K. Adjemian, and William Secor, AAEA, 2022.
