Category: Crop Marketing

When there isn’t a government shutdown that limits reporting activities, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a once-a-month shock that does more than nudge the average price. On release days, the intraday volatility pattern—its level across the session, its midday spike, and how quickly that spike fades—differs from ordinary days in ways that traders, merchandisers, and risk managers can plan around. A recent research article evaluated the impact of the WASDE report on commodity futures markets’ volatility (Lee and Park, 2024). Here we translate this research into practical guidance for traders when a WASDE report is released. 

Most trading plans benchmark a point estimate—an expected move or a single daily volatility number. But markets trade through time. On WASDE days, volatility is comparatively calm into late morning, jumps right after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time (CT) release, and then eases within about an hour. Treating the day like any other misses the timing and the intraday pattern that drives fills, slippage, and margin exposure.

We study corn and soybean futures from January 2013 through April 2023, focusing on regular trading hours (8:30 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. CT) and explicitly comparing three kinds of sessions: the release day itself, the day before, and the day after. Instead of averaging volatility across the whole day, we recover the intraday volatility curve—how volatility evolves minute by minute. We then ask two questions. First, what does volatility look like on WASDE days relative to other days? Second, is volatility the same across the before/after/release-day split? 

On release days, volatility is subdued at the open, eases into mid-morning, and then spikes right after 11:00 a.m. CT (see Figure 1 and 2). Figure 1 shows the day before and the day after with a simple fade from the open without the midday surge seen on WASDE release days. The spike is visible in both corn and soybeans and typically fades within about an hour, as shown on Figure 2. Formally, release-day intraday volatility differs from the adjacent days, while the before and after pair are statistically indistinguishable. Another practical detail emerges at the open: on release days, when the market’s early-session volatility often starts lower than on non-release days, consistent with traders holding back risk until the report is released. The result is a day that is quieter than usual in the morning, busier than usual just after 11:00 a.m. CT, and fairly normal again by early afternoon.

There are a few key takeaways from this research. One could use smaller orders just before the 11:00 a.m. CT release, then wait 5–15 minutes afterward to see where prices settle before adjusting. If buying, selling, or hedging, skip those first few minutes after 11:00—quotes and spreads are still resetting, and a short wait often saves money. For risk planning, don’t treat the whole day as high-volatility; expect a short, sharp bump around 11:00 that usually fades within about an hour.

While these patterns describe typical release days across a long sample, individual months will differ with the surprise content of the report and with concurrent macro news. The point is not that every WASDE day looks the same, but that the intraday volatility pattern on those days is predictably different enough to plan around. Remember that all trading comes with risks and the guidance in this article is for educational purposes only and is not a guarantee of outcomes.

Figure 1. Intraday volatility up to 11:00 a.m. (Central Time) WASDE release 

Figure 2. Intraday volatility on WASDE release days (corn and soybeans)

Minute-by-minute volatility with a 95% confidence band (gray). The vertical dashed line marks the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release. Both markets are relatively quiet into late morning, show a sharp 5–15-minute spike right after 11:00, and then settle toward baseline within about an hour; the exact height of the spike varies by month.

References

• Andersen, T. G., Su, T., Todorov, V., and Zhang, Z. (2024). Intraday periodic volatility curves. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(546):1181–1191.
• Lee, K. and Park, E. (2024). Exploring calendar effects: the impact of WASDE releases on grain futures market volatility. Applied Economics Letters, 1–6.

---

Park, Eunchun. “What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.3). November 12, 2025. Permalink

Following strong prices in 2022 and 2023, soybean values have fallen sharply from highs above $14 per bushel to current levels near $10.00 across much of the United States. While prices have recently rebounded on news of renewed Chinese buying, soybeans are still projected to generate negative returns during the 2025/26 marketing year. Looking ahead to 2026/27, November 2026 soybean futures are trading near $11.10. Assuming a -$0.50 harvest basis, a trend yield of 55 bushels per acre, and $650 per acre in input costs, estimated returns still imply roughly a $67 per-acre loss.

While it is still early and profitable prices could emerge, the signal remains clear: soybean supply continues to outpace demand at current production levels, and without stronger and sustained demand growth, profitability will remain elusive.

Between 2019 and 2022, U.S. soybeans were split roughly between exports (44%) and domestic crush (47%), with the remainder going to seed, feed, residual use, or ending stocks (Oilseed Yearbook, 2025). Recently, crush expansion has boosted domestic demand, but exports have declined, particularly due to reduced Chinese purchases (Gerlt, 2025). The U.S. recently negotiated a trade agreement under which China will purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans by January 2026, followed by 25 MMT annually from 2027 through 2029. This level would return Chinese buying close to 2024/25 volumes (Clayton, 2025). While the agreement provides some near-term support, questions remain about fulfillment and what happens beyond 2029.

In the near term, renewed Chinese buying represents the most direct path back to profitability. Crush expansion is important but largely anticipated by markets and will ramp up gradually; it cannot immediately offset recent export weakness. Meanwhile, China remains by far the dominant global buyer: in 2022, China imported more soybeans than all other countries combined, with the rest of the world accounting for just 61% of China’s import value (Figure 1). Over the long run, diversifying export markets can reduce reliance on China and lower price risk, but fully replacing Chinese demand is unrealistic.

Longer-term, continued crush growth provides a pathway to tighter balance sheets. Figure 2 illustrates how expanded crush capacity could increase domestic use even if Chinese purchases do not return to prior highs. Projected crush use climbs steadily after 2025 (Gerlt, 2025), supported by renewable diesel and other biofuel investments that may anchor domestic soybean demand going forward. If exports can stabilize near current projections, or strengthen modestly, the combination of incremental trade growth and rising domestic crush could gradually restore profitability. The recent trade agreement may buy time, but building durable demand outside of China will be essential to a more resilient soybean market beyond 2029.

Figure 1: World Demand for Soybeans Outside of China, 2022

Figure 2: Soybean Supply, Demand, and Projected Crush Expansion

Citations: 

Clayton, Chris. “Trump Champions Soy Deal for Farmers.” Progressive Farmer. October 30, 2025. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/10/30/bessent-china-agrees-buy-nearly-1-us

Gardner, Grant. “Major Players in US Trade and Grain Market Volatility.” Southern Ag Today 5(15.3). April 9, 2025. Permalink

Gerlt, Scott. (2025, April 10). Soybean Crush Expansion, 2025 Update. American Soybean Association. Retrieved from https://soygrowers.com/news-releases/soybean-crush-expansion-2025-update/

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2025). Oil Crops Yearbook [Data set]. U.S. Department of Agriculture.

World Bank (n.d.). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) [Data set]. Accessed via WITS: https://wits.worldbank.org/

---

Gardner, Grant. “Soybeans Stage a Comeback: Chinese Demand and Biofuel Growth Lead the Way.” Southern Ag Today 5(45.3). November 5, 2025. Permalink

We often look at the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for guidance on expected supply, demand, and pricing for commodities.  Rarely, however, does this report mention anything about peanuts.  The last WASDE (September 12, 2025) before the government shutdown was one of those rare exceptions when it included the statement that “Other changes [in oilseeds] this month include higher U.S. peanut production.”  To obtain more details, one needs to look at the monthly Oil Crops Outlook (OCO), which focuses on oil crops and animal fats.  The last OCO on September 16, 2025, reported that peanut production for marketing year 2025-26 was increased to a record-high 7.4 billion pounds, due to an expected higher harvested acreage (mainly in Georgia and Texas) as well as an increase in the average peanut yield.  With the government shutdown, this report has also not been updated, leaving the peanut industry with a month-old forecast during the peak harvest period that indicates a record crop.

Figure 1 shows U.S. peanut production and uses from 2020/21 to forecasted 2025/26.  Production is forecasted to reach record levels at 7.4 billion pounds, representing a 14.7% increase.  Meanwhile, total use for food, crush, and exports are expected to increase 8.5%, to 7 billion pounds.  The additional production is expected to increase ending stocks by 29.6% to 2 billion pounds, levels similar to the ending stocks in the 2022/23 marketing year. 

The lack of readily available data further limits information in an already thin market that, unlike other commodities, does not have a futures market to help establish prices.  This leaves producers questioning what the actual production levels will be during the peak of harvest.  One could look at various weather conditions, especially in Georgia, Texas, and Alabama, the three largest peanut acreage states this year.   Dry weather that is prevalent in these areas has the potential to bring down yields or affect quality.  

Another source of alternative information comes from the Georgia Federal-State Inspection Service, which publishes the National Tonnage Report.  This report contains data provided by buying points throughout the peanut belt on peanut production classified by segmentation. The official report is also affected by the government shutdown, but unofficial tonnage data have been made available.  Since October 1, data have been self-reported only for Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.  While the total tonnage reported thus far stands at 3.1 billion pounds, it is certainly a data point that has too many caveats to use for pricing decisions.  

The last source of information is the weekly Crop Progress & Condition report, which has also been affected by the government shutdown.  The last report at the end of September showed harvest ahead of last year and the previous 5-year average. However, at the end of October, harvest over the last 5 years has been, on average, about 70% completed.  Thus, there is still a way to go before we can figure out how big the 2025 peanut crop may be. In the meantime, the lack of official USDA reports is leaving producers with limited guidance.

Source:

Bukowski, M., & Swearingen, B. (2025). Oil crops outlook: September 2025 (Report No. OCS-25i). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Crop Progress & Condition. U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. U.S. Department of Agriculture, September 12, 2025.

Rabinowitz, Adam. “Will the 2025 Peanut Crop Set a New Record?” Southern Ag Today 5(44.3). October 29, 2025. Permalink

Throughout this growing season, much of the conversation has centered around expectations for a historically large U.S. corn crop. In its September report, USDA projected production at 16.8 billion bushels, nearly 1.5 billion more than the previous record set in 2023. As noted in last week’s Southern Ag Today article, Potential Market Impacts of Missing a WASDE Report During Government Shutdowns, the October WASDE was canceled due to the government shutdown, leaving producers without updated yield or demand estimates. Now that harvest is well underway and yields are coming in, USDA may trim its yield estimate slightly, but even with a small adjustment, we are still looking at a massive crop. The key question moving forward is simple: what are we going to do with all of it?

Most U.S. corn is used for three primary purposes: livestock feed, ethanol production, and exports, which together account for roughly 97 percent of total use. The remaining share goes toward food and seed. Figure 1 shows annual corn consumption since 2010.  Corn used for feed is currently projected at 6.1 billion bushels, the highest level since at least 2000. The projected grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs), a USDA measure of animals on feed, are estimated at 100.8 for 2025. Even with a smaller cattle supply, this is higher than the 2024 measure of 99.9, driven by increases in hogs, layers, and broilers. Lower corn prices make it a more competitive feed ingredient that will continue to support feed demand in the year ahead.

Corn use for ethanol production is projected at 5.6 billion bushels for the 2025 marketing year, up from 5.4 billion bushels last year. Although ethanol use has leveled off since the rapid expansion seen during the 2010s, it remains a steady and reliable source of demand for U.S. corn. Recent policy discussions around allowing year-round sales of E15 could provide an additional boost to corn demand through expanded ethanol use. 

While other commodities have faced headwinds, exports have been a bright spot for corn demand this year. Export sales have moved at a blistering pace, with the current forecast calling for a record 3 billion bushels of U.S. corn exports. Notably, this surge has occurred without purchases from China, which has remained absent from the U.S. corn market since the 2023/24 marketing year. Instead, sales to traditional trading partners have been strong, led by Mexico, followed by Japan and Colombia. Due to the government shutdown, USDA has not updated its weekly export sales report since the week of September 18. When reporting resumes, the next update will be closely watched to see whether corn export sales have maintained their rapid pace.

Given the elevated demand projections for corn, it is hard to see a significant price boost coming from the demand side throughout the rest of the year. Large supplies will continue to weigh on the market, and all eyes will be on the final production numbers. In this environment, managing price risk becomes critical. Producers with unpriced grain should consider setting clear marketing targets and evaluating tools such as forward contracts, futures, or options to lock in favorable opportunities when they arise. A disciplined approach to marketing can help balance downside risk while keeping flexibility for potential rallies later in the year.    

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Consumption by Category, 2010-2025. Source: USDA

---

Maples, Will. “Demand Outlook for a Record U.S. Corn Crop.” Southern Ag Today 5(43.3). October 22, 2025. Permalink

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is one of the most influential monthly publications in agriculture. It summarizes and updates projections on global crop production, trade, and consumption—information that agricultural markets rely on to set prices. However, the October WASDE report will not be released due to the ongoing government shutdown. Without this update, the effects ripple across the supply chain, impacting farmers, merchandisers, and financial markets that depend on timely market intelligence to guide decisions.

Previous government shutdowns have interrupted the release of WASDE reports, and research has shown this has introduced heightened uncertainty into the markets during the short term (Adjemian et al. 2017; Goyal and Adjemian, 2021). Without the monthly WASDE, buyers and sellers lose a crucial reference point on where the market stands. While we can only speculate about what the October report would have shown, its absence means missed opportunities. The numbers could have shifted prices positively or negatively, creating advantages for either sellers or buyers of agricultural commodities.

The disruption is especially significant during harvest. This is the time when actual yields are measured, contracts are delivered, and elevators manage a surge of grain. Typically, the October and November WASDE reports capture updated harvest conditions, painting a near real-time picture of the national balance sheet. Without those updates, elevators are left to alternative sources of information to estimate supply levels—possibly causing basis moves that may be too high or low. Similarly, demand projections lack clarity, which can swing futures prices in either direction.

In the short term, private forecasts will likely gain influence, but these estimates often vary widely by source, adding to market volatility. In the longer term, multiple months of projections may be bundled into a single release once USDA reporting resumes, creating larger adjustments in supply or demand estimates that markets must digest all at once.

In sum, whether the October WASDE would have been bullish or bearish for producers would have depended largely on changes to yield estimates. But the absence of a report is significant in itself. The lack of transparent, standardized market information increases the risk of mispriced grain and market inefficiencies, leaving producers and elevators to make large-scale marketing and storage decisions under heightened uncertainty.

References

Adjemian, M. K., Johansson, R., McKenzie, A., & Thomsen, M. (2018). Was the missing 2013 WASDE missed?. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 40(4), 653-671.

Goyal, R., & Adjemian, M. K. (2021). The 2019 government shutdown increased uncertainty in major agricultural commodity markets. Food Policy, 102, 102064.

---

Gardner, Grant. “Potential Market Impacts of Missing a WASDE Report During Government Shutdowns.” Southern Ag Today 5(42.3). October 15, 2025. Permalink