Category: Crop Marketing

Authors: Will Maples; Mississippi State University; Grant Gardner; University of Kentucky

As the calendar year comes to a close, U.S. soybean exports remain one of the more disappointing components of the soybean balance sheet. USDA currently projects soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels, down 13 percent from last year. This weakness has been evident throughout the marketing year, with export commitments consistently running below historical norms and showing little of the typical seasonal acceleration.

Figure 1 shows that U.S. soybean export commitments for the 2025-2026 marketing year have consistently trailed historical benchmarks. Commitments remained near the bottom of the five-year range through the winter and spring, reflecting limited early-season booking activity. Although export sales began to improve in late summer and early fall, the pace remains well below both the five-year average and USDA pace targets. Historically, roughly 70 percent of total soybean export commitments are in place by this point in the marketing year. Based on the five-year average pace, the U.S. would need approximately 30.9 million metric tons of commitments to meet USDA’s export projection. Currently, commitments total just 21.8 million metric tons, highlighting the substantial gap that remains.

The largest wildcard for U.S. soybean exports is China. Historically, China has been the single largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, accounting for 25% of U.S. soybean production (Gardner, 2025). However, Chinese purchases effectively halted last spring following the onset of the trade war. After the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement in October, China resumed soybean purchases. Under the agreement, China committed to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025, with an additional 25 million metric tons to be purchased in each of the following three years. Putting these numbers in perspective, 12 million metric tons account for 10% of U.S. soybean production this year.  

Initially, the 2025 commitment was expected to be met by the end of the calendar year, though the timeline has since become less clear, with the administration later indicating the target could be reached by the end of February. Regardless of the exact deadline, progress to date suggests the original target will not be met by year-end. For the export report ending November 27, USDA reports China had purchased 3.0 million metric tons of soybeans. While recent announcements of additional sales to China suggest this figure is now higher than officially reported, purchases remain well short of trade deal commitments.

Despite the Chinese trade agreement, questions remain about the economic feasibility of large-scale Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans relative to Brazilian soybeans. China has already sourced a substantial volume of soybeans from South America, and overall import demand is likely to remain limited regardless of trade commitments. With USDA projecting another increase in Brazilian soybean production, U.S. soybeans will likely remain trading at a premium to Brazil.

The lag in exports creates downside risk for producers with unpriced soybeans in storage if marketing decisions are based solely on the expectation of a late-season surge in Chinese purchases. Rather than relying on a potential export-driven price rally, producers should consider establishing price floors or incorporating other risk management strategies to protect against continued export weakness. As producers consider marketing old-crop soybeans for 2026 delivery, price recovery remains uncertain. Periodic sales at or above breakeven can help mitigate downside price risk, particularly if export demand continues to lag.

Figure 1. U.S. Total Soybean Export Commitments for 2025-2026 Marketing Year Compared to Previous Five Years (2020-2024)

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Sources: 

Gardner, Grant. “Major Players in US Trade and Grain Market Volatility.” Southern Ag Today 5(15.3). April 9, 2025. Permalink

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Maples, William E., and Grant Gardner. “Soybean Exports Continue to Lag.” Southern Ag Today 5(52.3). December 24, 2025. Permalink

The world wheat situation for the 2025 crop was dominated by overall favorable growing conditions.  According to the December 2025 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), world wheat production continued a long-term increasing trend, reaching a record of 837.81 million metric tons, about 31 billion bushels.  In the U.S., the average wheat yield for the 2025 crop also continued a long-term increasing trend to a record high 53.3 bushels per acre, beating the old record of 52.7 bushels in 2016.  

With record production and yield, what do supply and demand fundamentals in the wheat market portend for price expectations in 2026?  

For the U.S., wheat planted area has levelled off over the last few years to around 45 million acres. Last winter was under the influence of an El Niño weather pattern, generally associated with cooler temperatures and above normal precipitation in the Southern Plains (2016 was an El Niño year, too). The forecast for the winter of 2026 is for La Niña conditions to be present. La Niña winters are generally warmer and drier than normal. That is not a favorable forecast for above normal yields. With little change in acreage, the U.S. wheat crop in 2026 is likely to be smaller than 2025.

U.S. wheat domestic use is little changed over the last 20 years (Figure 1). Food use is right around 950 million bushels per year, varying no more than 59 million bushels since 2005/2006.   Wheat for feed averages about 135 million bushels per year. The high in feed use (360 million bushels) came in 2012 with the major drought in the Corn Belt. 

Figure 1. U.S. Wheat Use

That leaves exports. On average, exports and food use are about even over the last 20 years, but the range in exports is much more variable, from a high of 1.3 billion bushels to a low of 707 million.  There is significant competition in the export market for wheat, even though the U.S. is one of the top exporters in the world (Figure 2).   

Figure 2. World Wheat Exports

World consumption and production outside of the major exporting countries (Argentina, Australia, European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.) shows a production deficit every year since 1990 (Figure 3). That deficit has widened from about 70 million metric tons per year in the early 1990s to more than double, averaging over 160 million metric tons the last three years. The rate of deficit is increasing by about 3 million metric tons per year, providing a need for imports to those areas. 

Figure 3. Production and Domestic Consumption of Wheat: world less major exporters

The price outlook for wheat in 2026 looks better than 2025 based on what will likely be a smaller U.S. wheat crop. But the real question will be production levels globally, especially among our major export competitors. Meanwhile, consumption of wheat is strong.  In 1990, the population in countries outside Argentina, Australia, the EU, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. represented 82% of the population total (IMF, 2025), and per capita consumption of wheat in these ‘rest of the world’ countries was 75.6 kilograms per person year. In 2025, the population share of these ‘rest of the world’ countries increased to 87% of global population, and per capita consumption increased to 85.6 kilograms per person per year. The world is hungry for wheat.

References

International Monetary Fund. IMF Datamapper, accessed December 12, 2025, https://www.imf.org/en/home.  

USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, PSD, accessed December 10, 2025.

USDA, Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 2025. 

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Welch, Mark. “2026 Wheat Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(51.3). December 17, 2025. Permalink

On the evening of November 27, 2025, the CME’s electronic trading system had a major outage. Trading in corn and soybean futures stopped and then came back before the market opened the next morning. Many farmers and merchandisers wondered whether the first hour after the market reopened looked normal or if it showed signs of stress.This article uses one-minute price and volume data to describe what happened during the first hour of trading on Friday, November 28, 2025.

To understand whether the morning after the outage was unusual, I compared one-minute futures data for the first hour (after the 8:30 a.m. Central Time open) on November 28 against similar data for two simple benchmarks: (i) the previous ten trading days in 2025, and (ii) all trading days in 2025. For each comparison, I looked at how much futures contract prices moved minute-to-minute and how many contracts traded in that hour. For each day, I focused on the main contract with the most trading volume during the daytime session.

For corn, the first hour after the CME came back was far from normal. Table1 summarizes how large the first hour was compared with a typical morning. Compared with the previous ten trading days, the amount of price movement was a little more than five times larger than usual, and the total up-and-down movement over the hour was more than three times larger. Trading volume during that first hour was almost nine times the recent ten-day norm. Even when compared with all trading days in 2025, corn still shows very large numbers: more than three times the usual price movement and about ten times the usual first-hour volume. These findings match what many people felt in real time. The market did not simply return to normal after the outage. Corn, in particular, showed the kind of price swings and volume that look more like a stress event than a routine morning. Soybeans also showed more activity than usual, but the increase was not as dramatic as in corn. Compared with the previous ten trading days, soybean price movement was a little under three times the recent median, and volume was just under three times. Against the full 2025 distribution, soybean price movement was a little more than four times the median, and volume was about five times. Soybeans were active, but they did not spike as sharply as corn.

For farmers, merchandisers, and elevators, there are a few practical lessons when a technical problem occurs the night before the market opens. The first hour can be the most unstable time of the day when orders that could not be processed during the outage may all come in at once when trading resumes. That argues for extra caution with large orders right at or just after the open on such days. 

Finally, this type of simple analysis, checking how big the first hour is compared with recent days and the full year, can be a useful monitoring tool. Co-ops and elevators could use similar checks to decide when to widen quotes, slow down hedging, or adjust risk limits when the market appears unusually active.

Table 1: How Big Was the First Hour After the CME Outage?

Corn	Last 10 trading days	about 5.4×	about 3.2×	about 8.9×
Corn	All 2025 trading days	about 3.5×	about 2.3×	about 10.1×
Soybeans	Last 10 trading days	about 2.8×	about 2.0×	about 2.8×
Soybeans	All 2025 trading days	about 4.3×	about 2.3×	about 4.8×

* “First-hour price movement” measures how much prices bounced around minute-to-minute in the first 60 minutes.
** “First-hour total price movement” adds up all the ups and downs during that hour.

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^[1] Eunchun Park is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness / Fryar Price Risk Management Center of Excellence at the University of Arkansas

Row-crop producers across the South faced another difficult year in 2025. Weather challenges led to wide yield variability across much of the region. Even where yields were strong, low commodity prices and persistently high input costs kept margins tight, leaving many operations near or below breakeven for a third straight year. Shifts in acreage were common, with corn gaining ground at the expense of cotton and, in some areas, soybeans.

Financial stress remains a major concern heading into 2026, as limited storage capacity, tighter credit conditions, and low prices continue to pressure farm profits. To capture conditions across the south, we asked Extension agricultural economists in each state to provide a brief summary of the 2025 season. Their state-by-state perspectives are below.

Alabama – Adam Rabinowitz, Max Runge, and Wendiam Sawadgo, Auburn University

Alabama’s row crop producers faced the wettest May on record statewide, leading to delayed or prevented crop planting across the state. Prevented plantings for upland cotton in 2025 totaled 62,000 acres, above the previous five-year average of 2,000 acres. Across all crops, prevented plantings totaled 122,000 acres, much higher than the 22,000-acre five-year average. Compounding issues during the season were a late drought that suppressed peanut and soybean performance and the cotton jassid (two-spotted leafhopper) that entered Alabama and spread to all cotton-producing parts of the state. Even with these challenges, corn and cotton yields are projected to exceed their five-year averages, whereas peanut and soybean yields are expected to finish near historical norms. Meanwhile, producers, lenders, and agribusinesses remain concerned about the ongoing price squeeze driven by low commodity prices and elevated production costs. For the year ahead, many are questioning the best direction for row crops with no positive change to prices or input costs expected, and the unknown future and impact of the cotton jassid (two-spotted leafhopper).

Arkansas – Ryan Loy, Hunter Biram, and Scott Stiles, University of Arkansas

Arkansas row crop producers entered the 2025 crop year in one of the most financially challenging environments of the past decade, as crop receipts fell by $465 million to $4.46 billion, marking the third consecutive annual decline. Corn led the downturn with a 31% year-over-year decline, followed by soybean and rice receipts, while cotton receipts remain soft due to acreage reductions. At the same time, production expenses remain elevated relative to historical averages, with fertilizer, seed, labor, and interest costs continuing to pressure operating margins. Across all principal crops, state-average net returns are projected to be negative, with breakeven prices and yields often 30–40% above expected levels; late planting from generational flooding in April further increased downside risk. Record ad hoc assistance through ECAP and SDRP is expected to exceed $1 billion and offset a portion of these losses. Yet, net farm income for the crop sector is still projected to remain negative even after accounting for program payments. The mounting financial strain facing Arkansas producers continues as they confront low commodity prices, persistently high input costs, and tighter credit conditions.

Florida – Kevin Athearn, Amanda Phillips, and Joel Love, University of Florida

Florida planted acres of peanuts were up 7% (175,000 acres), corn down 3% (85,000 acres), and cotton down 29% (62,000 acres) in 2025 relative to the 5-year average (USDA-NASS).  Estimated yields for peanut were up 8% (3,900 lbs/acre) and cotton up 23% (800 lbs/acre) relative to the 5-year average (USDA-NASS). Anecdotally, irrigated corn yields were above average, but non-irrigated corn yields suffered from insufficient summer rainfall. Peanut contracts were offered on a relatively small portion of production at $500 to $525 per ton, but uncontracted peanuts reportedly were selling below $400 per ton at harvest. The local basis on grain corn forward contracts offered by three Florida buyers, April through July for August delivery, averaged $0.80 over Sep futures. Forward contracts on Florida cotton typically are tied to December futures, which averaged 66.83¢ per pound between April and November. Production costs, especially machinery, labor, and interest, have trended upward, and the local UAN28 price increased 30% in early 2025. Sample budgets for 2025 estimated contribution margins per acre (not including land or fixed costs) of about $300 for irrigated peanut, $50 for irrigated corn, negative $100 for irrigated cotton, and negative $50 for non-irrigated cotton. The estimated gross profit was negative for all three crops.

Georgia – Amanda Smith, University of Georgia

The 5-year average crop mix in Georgia consisted of 44% cotton, 28% peanuts, 16% corn, 7% wheat, and 5% soybeans. Row crop producers faced another tough year in 2025, after a difficult 2024 where they incurred negative to small margins and dealt with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which destroyed one-third of the cotton crop, delayed peanut harvest, and damaged infrastructure. Due to cotton prices below cost of production in 2025, producers made a major shift to their crop mix by planting more peanuts than cotton for the first time in three decades and significantly increasing corn acres. The 2025 crop year saw 35% of total acres planted to peanuts, 32% to cotton,  21% to corn, and 6% each to soybeans and wheat. Despite some relief provided by government programs (ECAP and SDRP), producers continued to deplete their working capital and erode equity, making it necessary to rely on other sources of income to support their row crop operations. The 2025 crop year saw an additional challenge with the rapid spread of a new invasive pest to cotton, the Cotton Jassid (two-spotted leafhopper). Late-season drought made dryland peanut harvest difficult and created some concern about crop quality. For 2026, producers will be mindful of crop rotations and cost of production while hoping to hold on until improved agricultural policies provide needed financial relief.

Kentucky – Grant Gardner, University of Kentucky

Three consecutive years of lower prices have already put Kentucky producers in a difficult position, and this year’s extreme yield variability is adding even more pressure. Some areas will post record yields, while others will fall well below average—especially soybeans, which are currently rated in the worst condition of any state. A major concern right now is the lack of soybeans in storage. At harvest, many producers moved beans rather than storing them due to uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute, leaving most available storage filled with corn. That decision removed the opportunity to take advantage of last month’s rally in soybean futures, and many producers were unable to benefit from the price improvement when it finally arrived. While diversified operations with livestock may still be close to break-even, row-crop-focused farms are likely hovering at or below break-even for the third consecutive year, tightening cash reserves and leaving many operations increasingly vulnerable to financial stress or potential default.

Louisiana – Michael Deliberto, Louisiana State University

In Louisiana, corn acres increased by 330,000 acres (+75%) from 2024 to 2025. Most producers favored corn over cotton (and, to a lesser extent, soybeans) due to grain price competitiveness. Overall, yields were near the previous four-year average of 176 bushels per acre.  Prices are finally becoming somewhat favorable for producers who elected to store their crop. 

Like most of the mid-south region, cotton acres in Louisiana were down year-over-year. Producers planted only 90,000 acres in 2025. Despite the low acreage, yields were at record highs at 1,314 pounds per acre, nearly a 250-pound-per-acre increase from the previous year. While yields were excellent, prices remained low. The high cost of production, coupled with the narrow price movement within the 66-68 cents per pound range in the spring, was a main factor behind the reduced acreage in the state. 

Soybean acres in Louisiana were down year-over-year. Acreage for the oilseed is typically between 1.1 and 1.2 million acres. However, the 2025 acreage was 790,000, mainly due to lackluster prices and trade uncertainty surrounding exports. Yields were the highest in five years, coming in at 54 bushels per acre. 

Rice acres in Louisiana totaled 482,000 planted acres in 2025, the most since 2010. The yield per acre was 6,650 pounds, which is on par with the five-year average. High production costs and decreasing rice prices at harvest presented a major challenge for rice growers heading into the winter. 

Mississippi – Will Maples, Mississippi State University

Weather played a major role in Mississippi’s 2025 crop. Frequent heavy rains delayed planting for many producers, and late-summer drought stressed crops, resulting in significant yield variability across the state. Soybeans remained the largest crop at 1.8 million acres, but growers shifted more toward corn than cotton, planting 900,000 acres of corn compared with 330,000 acres of cotton. Financial conditions remain difficult. The price environment is still unfavorable, and because Mississippi producers harvest early and lack the storage capacity common in other states, many were unable to capitalize on the recent soybean price rally. High production costs continue to squeeze margins, leaving most producers facing negative profits for the third consecutive year. Looking ahead to 2026, a growing number of producers have expressed equity concerns as they evaluate their farm financing options.

North Carolina – Nicholas Piggott, North Carolina State University

In North Carolina, 2025 row-crop outcomes were mixed. Corn yields rebounded sharply from last year’s drought-reduced crop, with NASS estimating 139 bu/acre, pushing corn production up about 75% from 2024.  Late-November cash bids for No. 2 yellow corn are mostly $4.60 at country elevators and around $4.80 at feed mills, with a firm basis of $0.40-$0.50. Soybean yields, by contrast, slipped to about 36 bu/acre, below last year’s 39 bu/acre, leaving statewide soybean production down roughly 6% from 2024. Cash soybean bids are currently in the $10.50–$11.10/bu range at elevators and $11.25 at processors, with basis typically -$0.30 at elevators and $0.02 at processors.  On wheat, growers have responded to several years of weak prices and weather risk by cutting back acreage: NASS reports 2025 winter wheat seedings at about 350,000 acres, down from 410,000 acres last year and near the low end of the historical range for the state.  Looking Ahead to 2026 – North Carolina growers should carefully pencil out expected corn and soybean margins when making planting decisions for 2026, and pay close attention to wheat growing conditions in the next few months since they will shape production levels, basis strength, and marketing opportunities for 2026.

Tennessee – Aaron Smith, University of Tennessee

In Tennessee, 2025 row production was highly variable. Drought during July and August reduced yields and contributed to a second consecutive season of losses for many corn, soybean, and cotton farmers. Cotton and soybean yields were hardest hit by the drought and will likely result in further downward revisions from current USDA yield estimates. High input costs, low commodity prices, and below trend yields resulted in per-acre losses between $100 and $250 for many producers. Before crop insurance and other government payments, Tennessee corn, cotton, soybean, and wheat farmers are projected to lose over $400 million in 2025. With substantial year-over-year losses, many producers will carry operating debt over into the next season for the second straight year. Obtaining credit for the 2026 crop will be challenging for many producers without ad hoc government payments. Canola acres in Tennessee and Kentucky continued to expand in the fall of 2025, providing producers with an alternative to more traditional double-cropping systems. Growth in canola acreage has been driven by contracted acres, primarily in Northwest Tennessee, to support a pilot program to produce sustainable aviation fuel.

Texas – Mark Welch and John Robinson, Texas A&M University

Grain production across Texas in 2025 was generally an improvement from 2024. Overall, yields for wheat, corn, and grain sorghum were above their most recent 10-year averages.  Cash grain prices for the year peaked in February and followed a decline throughout the growing season.  A major feature of planning for 2026 will be changes to the farm safety net compared to the beginning of last year: a higher level of support in programs administered by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and increased cost-sharing for crop insurance products. This could make higher levels of revenue protection a viable consideration for the upcoming crop year. 

Texas cotton production in 2025 benefited from favorable, timely moisture conditions.  This is in contrast to the preceding three years, which suffered from excessive heat and dryness.  Unfortunately, the 2025 cotton production still suffered from unprofitably low market prices.  The upcoming 2026 cotton season is concerning with a return of dry conditions and an uncertain market outcome.

Thanksgiving is a time to slow down, gather with the people who matter most, and enjoy the dishes that feel like home. For many Southern families, no holiday table feels complete without one standout ingredient: the sweet potato. Whether baked, mashed, candied, or topped with toasted marshmallows, this humble crop has become a Thanksgiving staple across the country. Each year, the United States (U.S.) plants more than 150,000 acres of sweet potatoes, making it a major commercial crop, especially in states across the South.

Sweet potato production is largely centered in three states: North Carolina, Mississippi, and California. North Carolina is the clear leader, planting 87,000 acres in 2024, which accounted for 58 percent of all U.S. sweet potato acreage (NASS). Mississippi ranked second with 32,000 acres, followed by California with 18,000. Together, North Carolina and Mississippi produced roughly 80 percent of the nation’s planted acres. In Mississippi, production is clustered in the north central region around Vardaman, often celebrated as “The Sweet Potato Capital of the World.” In North Carolina, Wilson, Nash, and Johnston counties anchor the state’s industry.

Louisiana, while still an important producer, has experienced a significant decline over the past decade. In 2011, producers planted 13,000 acres, but by 2024 that number had fallen to just over 5,000 (LSU AgCenter). High production costs, persistent pest pressure from the sugarcane beetle, and an aging grower population have all contributed to this downward trend.

Of all U.S. sweet potatoes produced, about 70 percent are made available for domestic consumption. In recent decades, however, U.S. sweet potatoes have also seen strong growth in export demand. In 2000, exports accounted for only 3 percent of total use, but by 2022 that share had increased to 21 percent. Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are the top three destinations for U.S. sweet potatoes. While Canada has steadily increased its imports and remains the largest buyer, most of the export growth since 2000 has come from expanding markets in Europe. 

Sweet potato producers face unique marketing challenges compared to traditional row crops. Not every sweet potato is the same, and roots are graded based on size. U.S. No. 1s are considered the premium grade, preferred for the fresh market, and command the highest price. U.S. No. 2s include smaller roots, known as canners, and larger roots, known as jumbos, which are typically used by the processing industry. However, jumbos and canners bring lower prices, and depending on market conditions, canners may not be economical to harvest. This season, Mississippi growers have faced particular challenges with a higher share of smaller roots, resulting in lower overall economic returns.

Sweet potatoes remain a key crop in the Southeast, and producers continue to navigate significant challenges to deliver them to your Thanksgiving table. If you haven’t planned to include sweet potatoes in your meal tomorrow, there is still time. To make it easier, I am happy to share the best way to enjoy sweet potatoes for a Thanksgiving meal. This recipe comes straight from my wife’s Mimi, who grew up in the heart of Mississippi sweet potato country. Her sweet potato casserole has been a family staple for generations, and I hope your family enjoys it just as much as ours does. Happy Thanksgiving!

References 

LSU AgCenter. (n.d.). Research station profile: Sweet Potato Research Station. https://www.lsuagcenter.com/portals/our_offices/research_stations/sweetpotato/features/profile

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). (2025). Quick Stats. https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

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Maples, Will. “Sweet Potatoes: A Southern Crop for Thanksgiving.” Southern Ag Today 5(48.3). November 26, 2025. Permalink