Category: Crop Marketing

During the farm bill legislative process in 2024, the House Agriculture Committee proposed increases to the Nonrecourse Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) rates that were predominantly 10% higher than the existing rates for the major commodities shown in Table 1.  A discussion of the 2024 House and Senate proposals was published in Southern Ag Today on June 24, 2024. While the farm bill was never finalized in 2024, on July 4, 2025, President Trump signed into law the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that included many agricultural provisions.  New MAL rates, similar to the previous House Agriculture Committee proposal, were included in Title I Subtitle C of this bill, effective with the 2026 crop year through the 2031 crop year.

Here we compare the MAL rate of 2018 to the new MAL rate, as well as discuss the function of the MAL as a marketing tool to cover operating costs of production.  Table 1 shows the 2018 loan rate and the new MAL rates. The MAL rate has increased 10% across the board, except for upland cotton which ranges between 6% and 22%. This wide-ranging percentage increase for upland cotton reflects how the MAL rate in the 2018 Farm Bill is specified from $0.45 to $0.52/lb, but the new rate is a flat $0.55/lb.  Given that the loan rate for upland cotton has not actually been below $0.52/lb since the 2018 Farm Bill, this effectively translates to a 6% increase.

Table 1: MAL Rates from the 2018 Farm Bill and the One Big Beautiful Bill

Commodity	Unit	2018 Farm Bill Loan Rate per Unit	New Loan Rate Per Unit	Percentage Increase in Loan Rate from 2018	Forecast Operating Cost per Acre for 20261	2026 Yield Projection2
Barley	bu	2.50	2.75	10%	193.19	81.7
Corn	bu	2.20	2.42	10%	457.90	183.7
Oats	bu	2.00	2.20	10%	168.16	66.2
Peanuts	ton	355.00	390.00	10%	641.80	3986
Rice	cwt	7.00	7.70	10%	784.29	7745
Sorghum	bu	2.20	2.42	10%	184.07	71.9
Soybeans	bu	6.20	6.82	10%	245.59	53.1
Upland Cotton*	lb	0.45-0.52	0.55	6%-22%	568.36	882
Wheat	bu	3.38	3.72	10%	161.25	50.1

The MAL can be used as part of a broader marketing plan to provide an influx of cash at harvest to help cover operating loans or expenses with potentially more favorable terms.  With certainty of the MAL rate through 2031, farmers should now consider how this tool can be used for their specific operation to allow for more time to market crops after harvest.  A factsheet with additional information is available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency

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Reference

Rabinowitz, Adam (June 24, 2024). “Current Farm Bill Negotiations for the Marketing Assistance Loan Program.” Southern Ag Today 4(26.1). Available at: https://southernagtoday.org/2024/06/24/current-farm-bill-negotiations-for-the-marketing-assistance-loan-program/.

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Bafowaa, Bridget, and Adam Rabinowitz. “New Marketing Assistance Loan Program Rates Established for 2026-2031 Crop Years.” Southern Ag Today 5(31.3). July 30, 2025. Permalink

Farmers across the United States planted an estimated 1.9 million acres to peanuts in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Acreage report released on June 30^th. If realized, this would mark a 100,000 acre increase over last year’s value and would be the largest peanut plantings since 1991 (Figure 1). This is also the third consecutive year of peanut acreage increases, up from just 1.45 million acres in 2022. Low competing row-crop prices — especially cotton prices being below 70 cents per lb. — is one factor that made peanuts a somewhat more-favorable alternative in 2025. 

Figure 1: US Planted Peanut Acres by Year

The 2025 planted peanut area for all major peanut-growing states is equal to or greater than what it was in 2024, as shown in Figure 2. Georgia — the largest producing peanut state — had the biggest increase, adding 50,000 peanut acres to last year’s figure for a total of 900,000 acres. Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas added an additional 10,000 acres apiece. Georgia’s total would be its highest since 1991, Alabama’s its highest since 2015, and Texas’ its highest since 2017.

Figure 2: 2025 Planted Peanut Acres by State and Percent Change from 2024

What could this increased peanut acreage mean for production and markets? The USDA Oil Crops Outlookreleased on July 15^th reports an estimated 1.85 million harvested acres and an average peanut yield of 4,000 lb. per acre.¹  This would amount to a record-high production of 3.7 million tons, a 476,000 ton increase from the 2024 level. At this level of production and current disappearance projections, 2025/26 marketing year ending stocks are projected to be 1.129 million tons, a 34% increase from the prior year. This expected increase in peanut supply would likely lead to a further decline in peanut contract prices going into next year. Overall, the USDA-ERS projects peanut prices for the 2025/26 marketing year to average $500 per ton, which is in line with the runner contracts offered this spring, and would mark an $18-per-ton decrease from last year. 

Footnote: ¹Keep in mind that peanut yields have been inconsistent over the past decade, so averaging 4,000 lb. per acre is far from a guarantee.

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References

Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Peanut Yield Trends.” Southern Ag Today 4(13.1). March 25, 2024. Available at: https://southernagtoday.org/2024/03/25/peanut-yield-trends/

USDA-ERS. Oil Crops Outlook. July 15, 2025. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb08p

USDA-NASS. Acreage. June 30, 2025. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb09z

USDA-NASS. Crop Production Annual Summary. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k3569432s

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Sawadgo, Wendiam. “Planted Peanut Acres at Thirty-four Year High.” Southern Ag Today 5(30.3). July 23, 2025. Permalink

Growing demand for renewable fuel is reshaping crop decisions across the Southern United States, where farmers are rapidly expanding winter canola production. Traditionally grown in the U.S. Northern Plains, canola is now gaining traction in Southern double-crop rotations—driven largely by a strategic partnership between Bunge, Chevron, and Corteva Agriscience. Interest in winter canola production has been focused on the potential for winter oilseeds to contribute to the U.S Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge goal of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050.

The partnership combines Bunge’s grain origination and processing, Chevron’s fuel distribution, and Corteva’s proprietary genetics to position winter canola as a leading feedstock for renewable fuel. Central to this strategy is a new oilseed processing facility in Destrehan, Louisiana, which is slated to begin processing canola by 2026.

To meet projected demand by 2026, the strategic partnership launched a pilot program in the 2023–24 marketing year, contracting 5,000 acres across western Kentucky and Tennessee. By 2024–25, the initiative expanded to over 35,000 acres spanning Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, and Missouri (Pioneer, 2024). Reported insured acres from USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) confirm this growth (Figure 1), with average increases of nearly 500% across Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee—highlighted by 7,500 acres in Tennessee and 25,000 in Kentucky.

Based on the anticipated crush capacity at the Destrehan, LA facility, near-term canola demand could reach 100,000 to 150,000 acres across the Southern United States. Over the longer term, the partnering companies project demand could rise to nearly 1 million acres as infrastructure and markets scale (Heslip, 2024).

Early reports from Kentucky and Tennessee suggest winter canola average yields of 40–65 bushels per acre. Contract prices for 2024 (2025 crop year) hovered around $12.00 per bushel, depending on contract timing, acres contracted, and freight costs. Gross revenue of $480-$780 per acre provides many mid-south farmers with a viable financial alternative to traditional soft red winter wheat production (Gross revenue of $420-$468; University of Kentucky and University of Tennessee 2025 Crop Budgets). Many growers report lower input costs compared to winter wheat, contributing to higher profit margins at current price levels. Currently, acreage contracts are being offered to producers for fall planting. Acreage contracts provide producers with a defined number of acres at a specified price. Production is not specified in the contract; the contract writer takes all production for the contracted acres at the set price.  Before entering a production contract, producers need to fully understand the terms and conditions, including production practices, delivery, and quality specifications.

Figure 1: Canola Acres Insured (Net Reported) by State and Year

Sources:

Pioneer. 2024. “Corteva-Bunge-Chevron Winter Canola Program in the Mid-South Achieves Successful Harvest.” Accessed July 8, 2025. https://www.pioneer.com/us/news-and-events/news/media-release/corteva-bunge-chevron-winter-canola-successful-harvest.html.

Heslip, Nicole. 2024. “Winter Canola Pilot Expanding in Mid-South.” Brownfield Ag News (blog). Accessed July 8, 2025. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/winter-canola-pilot-expanding-in-mid-south/.

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Gardner, Grant, and Aaron Smith. “Winter Canola Expansion in the Southern U.S: A Renewable Fuel Opportunity.” Southern Ag Today 5(29.3). July 16, 2025. Permalink

Exports are an important source of demand for U.S. cotton. From 2015-2024, the U.S. has exported an average of 13.6 million bales per year, 85% of annual cotton production (USDA FAS-PS&D). The monthly variation in U.S. cotton exports is tied to production cycles and global demand.  In particular, U.S. export variation is directly tied to the U.S. production cycle, and indirectly to the production cycles of other top producing countries who are also major consumers, e.g., China, India, and Pakistan. Figure 1 shows the 10-year average (2015–2024) monthly percent of total annual U.S. cotton export value by month, along with values reported from January to April 2025. Historically, March through May are peak months for U.S. cotton exports, with March (12.5%), April (11.1%), and May (10.9%) accounting for the highest monthly average percent of total annual export value. This may indicate that the weekly export sales pace during the Spring months may be important positive determinants of March and May ICE cotton futures prices. After May, exports begin to decline, reaching their lowest point in October (4.1%). In the final months of the year, export values increase in November (5.1%) and December (7.4%).

Figure 1. Percent of Total U.S. Cotton Export Value by Month, 10-Year Average (2015-2024) and 2025 Value by Month  

U.S. Cotton Exports to China, Canada, and Mexico

U.S. cotton exports to China follow a similar pattern as the global U.S. exports. Export values peak in March (12.1%) and reach a low in October (3.8%; Figure 2). For Canada and Mexico, export sales are more consistent month-to-month (Figure 3). The stable pattern of U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico is likely due to proximity and the U.S. being the main supplier (although Mexican domestic production would be a competitor with U.S. production). U.S. cotton exports to Canada are significantly lower in quantity and value compared to exports to China and Mexico, but are relatively stable across the calendar year, with minimal variation between months. From January to April, monthly export values remain between 7.5% and 7.9%, with a peak in May. Mexico also has consistent import levels across months, with a slight peak at 9.2% in March and September and the lowest percent in December (6.2%). 

Figure 2. Percent of U.S. Cotton Export Value by Month to China, 10-Year Average (2015-2024) and 2025 Value by Month  

Figure 3. Percent of U.S. Cotton Export Value by Month to Canada and Mexico, 10-Year Average (2015-2024) and 2025 Value by Month  

U.S. Cotton Exports to the Rest of the World (ROW; World minus China, Canada, and Mexico)

U.S. exports to countries other than Canada, Mexico, and China grouped as the Rest of World (data not shown) follows a similar seasonal pattern as global trends displayed in figure 1. Spring marks the strongest months with March (12.9%), April (11.4%) and May (11.5%) accounting for a large portion of annual export value. However, towards the end of the year there is a significant decrease in September (4.5%), October (3.7%) and November (4.3%).

References

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)

Accessed at: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/ExpressQuery1.aspx

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Production, Supply, and Distribution (PS&D) Accessed at: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery

For its first official production estimates of the new crop year, published in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA relies on the planted acreage number from the Prospective Plantingssurvey conducted in late February to mid-March and reported at the end of March. Compared to those March survey numbers, the annual Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports released by USDA at the end of June can change those numbers significantly, thus having the potential to be a major market mover.  

In the May WASDE (and carried forward unchanged in the June WASDE), USDA estimated 95.3 million acres of corn for 2025 (Table 1) and harvested acres of 87.4 million (91.7% harvest rate).  That compares to 90.6 million acres planted in 2024 and 82.9 million harvested (91.5% harvest rate).  The average guess by traders ahead of the June Acreage report was 95.2 million corn acres planted.  The Acreage report also showed U.S. farmers planted 95.2 million acres of corn for 2025, 100,000 acres below the March survey, but right on the average trade guess. 

Also revised in the Acreage report was estimated acres harvested for corn.  While acres planted were down only 100,000 from previous estimates, acres harvested were down 600,000. The harvested percentage dropped from 91.7% to 91.1%.  

Plugging those numbers into the supply and demand balance sheet from the June WASDE, and leaving all other supply and demand factors unchanged, these new acreage numbers lower corn production for 2025 (and ending stocks) by 114 million bushels (Table 2). With use held steady and a reduction in ending stocks, days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year (a representation of the stocks-to-use ratio) decreases from a 41.3-day supply in the June WASDE down to a relatively tight 38.6-day supply.  

June 1 Grain Stocks were estimated at 4.64 billion bushels of corn, 1.01 billion bushels of soybeans, and 851 million bushels of wheat. Corn stocks are down compared to a year ago while soybeans and wheat stocks are higher. Corn disappearance in the period from December 1 to June 1 was a record 7.432 billion bushels, as depicted in Figure 1 as the difference from the December 1 stock to the June 1 stock. Last year, use in that period was 7.174 billion bushels compared to the five-year average 6.937 billion bushels. 

Other items in the June USDA reports focused on Soybeans and Wheat.  Soybeans came in at 83.4 million acres planted, 100,000 below the March Prospective Plantings and 200,000 below average trader expectations. Soybean acres harvested were revised from 82.7 million to 82.5 million, a 200,000-acre decrease.  All wheat at 45.5 million acres was up 100,000 compared to Prospective Plantings and trader expectations.  All wheat harvested acres were revised downward by 600,000 acres from 37.2 million to 36.6 million. 

Given the numbers reported by USDA in the 2025 Acreage report, production estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat will likely be revised lower on fewer harvested acres. However, the Grain Stocks report shows a small decrease in corn carryover and increased carryover of soybeans and wheat relative to trade expectations, implying forthcoming changes in old crop use estimates.  Adding old crop ending stock adjustments to new crop production estimates, it looks like the new crop supply numbers got a little tighter for corn and wheat, and a small increase for soybeans.  

Table 1. Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks from USDA and Industry Reports

June 30th Acreage and Grain Stocks
2025 Planted Acres (millions)
	Planted	Average from Experts	Range from Experts	March Intentions	2024
Corn	95.2	95.2	93.8-96.0	95.3	90.6
Soybeans	83.4	83.6	83.0-85.0	83.5	87.1
All Wheat	45.5	45.4	45.0-46.0	45.4	46.1
Winter Wheat	33.3	33.3	33.0-33.4	33.3	33.4
Spring Wheat	10.0	10.1	9.8-10.2	10.0	10.6
Durum	2.1	2.0	2.0-2.1	2.0	2.1
June 1st Grain Stocks (million bushels)
	June 1, 2025	Average From Experts	Range from Experts	Mar 1, 2025	Jun 1, 2024
Corn	4,644	4,648	4,459-4,955	8,151	4,997
Soybeans	1,008	971	936-1,020	1,910	970
Wheat	851	835	805-852	1,237	696
Source: USDA and DTN

Table 2. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

U.S. Corn	2024/25	June WASDE2025/26	June Acreage2025/26
Planted Acreage (Mil. Acs.)	90.6	95.3	95.2
Harvested Acreage (Mil. Acs.)	82.9	87.4	86.8
Yield (Bushels)	179.3*	181.0*	181.0*
Supply                                                     —Million Bushels—
Beginning Stocks	1,763	1,365	1,365
Production	14,867	15,820*	15,706*
Imports	25	25	25
Total Supply	16,655	17,210*	17,096*
Disappearance
Domestic Use	12,640	12,785*	12,785*
Exports	2,650	2,675	2,675
Total Use	15,290*	15,460*	15,460*
Ending Stocks	1,365	1,750	1,636
Carryover/Use (days on hand)	32.6	41.3	38.6
Average Farm Price ($/Bu.)	4.35	4.20	4.20
*Record High
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and demand Estimates and Acreage 2025

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Stocks, All Positions

References:

DTN/Progressive Farmer. “USDA Reports Preview”, June 26, 2025 https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/06/26/acreage-stocks-reports-set-tone-us.

USDA, NASS. Acreage, https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb09z.

USDA, NASS. Grain Stocks, https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/xg94hp534.

USDA, Office of the Chief Economist. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report.