Category: Livestock Marketing

USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report, released on Friday, January 23^rd, contained the estimated number of heifers on feed.  The breakout of steers and heifers on feed is released quarterly.  Many have been looking closely at this statistic for evidence of a significant herd expansion starting.  

Heifers on feed totaled 4.435 million head, down 140,000 head, or 3.1 percent, from last January 1.  The number of steers on feed also declined by 3.2 percent.  Heifers represented 38.73 percent of the total cattle on feed, hardly different from last year’s 38.70 percent.  It was the fewest January 1 heifers on feed since 2019.  Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas had fewer heifers on feed, with Colorado having the largest decline of 85,000 head, followed by Texas, down 55,000 head.  The decline in the heifers on feed in those states is interesting in that those states would have been most impacted by the border closure with Mexico.  Other states either reported no change or, in the case of Nebraska, 10,000 more heifers on feed.  

Spayed heifers imported from Mexico contribute to the total number of heifers on feed.  The January Cattle on Feed report is the first full month of comparison to a year ago, with no cattle imports in December 2025 and 2024. Approximately 145,000 fewer spayed heifers were imported from Mexico in the months leading up to January 1, 2026, compared to January 1, 2025.  So, the decline in heifers on feed could largely reflect fewer imports rather than a significant decline in domestic heifer feeders being placed.  

While the decline in heifers on feed suggests some heifers held for herd rebuilding, the reduction in supplies from Mexico and heifers as a percent of all cattle on feed indicates little herd rebuilding from additional domestic heifer retention, yet. It is likely that the inventory report released on the 30^th should indicate more heifers held for beef cow replacement.

The rest of the cattle on feed largely lined up with expectations.  Marketings were up about 2 percent, with one more slaughter day during December, daily average marketings were below a year ago.  Placements were 5.4 percent below a year ago.  The total number of cattle on feed was down 3.2 percent a year ago.  Supplies should continue to tighten this year and into next year, as well.  

USDA is set to release the January Cattle on Feed and the much-anticipated Cattle inventory report later this month.  This SAT takes a brief look at expectations for each report, key points to look for when they are released, and some market implications of each.

Cattle on Feed

The Cattle on Feed report is set to be released on Friday, January 23^rd.  There was one more slaughter day during the month of December, based on when the weekends and holidays fell.  That extra day shows up in pre-report estimates of increased marketings for the month.  December marketings are expected to be about 2 percent higher than December 2024.  Daily average marketings should have lagged behind last year, which is to be expected with fewer cattle on feed. 

Placements of feeders into feedlots are expected to be below a year ago, with pre-report estimates down around 5 percent.  December placements versus a year ago reflect the border closure to cattle imports from Mexico, with no cattle imported in December 2024 and 2025.  This is the first full month of comparison with no imports for a month in either year.  Large declines in placements during 2025 included the impact of no Mexican feeder cattle so in coming months year-over-year placements will indicate changes in domestic feeder cattle placements.  

The combination of larger marketings and smaller placements results in the total number of cattle on feed expected to be down more than 2 percent on January 1, compared to January 1, 2025.  This report will include an estimate of the number of heifers on feed.  This may be the most anticipated number in the report as evidence of any heifer retention for herd growth.  

Cattle

The annual Cattle inventory report will be released on Friday, January 30^th.  This report will provide evidence of herd rebuilding and whether this cattle cycle has bottomed out with growth beginning.  I tend to focus on the beef cow herd and heifers held for beef cow replacement more than other data points in the report.  Cow herd: Pre-report estimates indicate close to the same number of cows as a year ago.  Beef cow slaughter during 2025 was down almost 20 percent compared to the year before, and that is low enough for a slight increase in cow numbers.  High calf prices certainly provided an incentive to try to get one more calf out of older cows before culling them.  

There has been little hard evidence of heifer retention providing cow herd growth.  Continued high heifer slaughter, a large number of heifers on feed as a percent of all cattle on feed, very low numbers of heifers held last year to enter the herd, and a historically small calf crop all contribute to expectations of little herd growth from the heifer side.  

Beyond the cow herd, the dairy herd should show the largest number of cows since the early 1990s.  The number of stockers on small grain pastures will be interesting for potential placements in the next couple of months.  The number of all cattle will be interesting as a historical number for the cattle cycle. 

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Anderson, David. “Two Big Cattle Reports This Month.” Southern Ag Today 6(4.2). January 20, 2026. Permalink

Cull cow prices normally decline in the Fall as supplies rise and the weather turns past grilling season.  This past Fall, even though total cow slaughter increased from summertime lows, cow prices showed little seasonal decline.  The market is starting 2026 much like it finished 2025, with high prices, but will prices be able to increase into mid-year like usual?

Southern Plains auction prices for 85-90 percent lean cows finished the year at $163 per cwt, about where they had been since June.  Nationally, cutter quality cows did experience a little seasonal decline, dropping as low as $124 after peaking over $135, but much of that decline was regained during December.  Live cow prices bucked the meat market trend, however.  The cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean beef both declined a little over 9 percent from September through the end of the year.  

Both beef cow and dairy cow slaughter increased from summer lows; the most dramatic increase came from the dairy side.  The number of dairy cows in the U.S. increased to more than 9.5 million head, the most since the early 1990s, leading to slightly increased dairy cow culling in the second half of 2025.  In the first half of the year, dairy cow culling was down 7.3 percent from the same period in 2024; it was 1.2 percent higher during the second half of the year compared to the previous year.  That small increase is reflective of a growing herd with more animals available to be culled.  Herd growth has been fueled by earlier profitable milk prices and by the high price of calves, especially those beef and dairy crossbred calves.  

Beef cow culling remained very low, down over 17 percent for the year, even though it increased seasonally late in 2025.  Beef cow slaughter is likely to remain low in the coming months because of the overall smaller herd and efforts to increase cow numbers.  

How much of a seasonal rally from January into June might we expect this year?  It’s likely that we’ll have a seasonal rally because beef demand remains good and supplies of lean beef for grinding remain tight.  Any significant increase in cow culling will come from the dairy side as very low milk prices hit bottom lines.  Beef imports, the majority of which are lean beef trimmings, should remain historically large this year.  Although it’s worth noting that imports were slightly lower than the previous year during the August-October period.  On balance, cull cow prices should remain in record high territory.

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Anderson, David. “Will Cull Cow Prices Increase This Year?” Southern Ag Today 6(3.2). January 13, 2026. Permalink

We ended 2025 examining total meat supplies, so this week we’ll take a closer look at chicken production. 

If the reader will forgive the obvious joke about what comes first, 1 percent more eggs for broiler grow-out were set in 2025 compared to 2024.  That led to about 1 percent more chicks placed.  A few more broilers made it from placement to slaughter, leading to broiler slaughter growing by 2.1 percent over the prior year.  Combining more slaughter with 1.2 percent growth in weights generated a 3.3 percent increase in broiler production in 2025.

Increasing broiler production was jump started by profits from the combination of high broiler meat prices and falling feed costs.  Broilers have a cutout value calculated, much like beef and pork.  The broiler cutout value increased from $0.85 per pound in January 2025 to a peak of $1.07 per pound by May.  The peak value was about 12 cents per pound higher than the same point the year before and 62 percent higher than the 5-year average for the same period.  High prices in 2025 are built on higher price levels hit in 2024.  The cutout dropped rapidly later in 2025.  By the end of December, the cutout was down to $0.63 per pound.  

The decline in the cutout value is shown in the wholesale cuts that make up the cutout value.  Wholesale boneless, skinless breast meat has declined from a mid-year peak of $2.77 per pound to $1.16 per pound at the end of December, well below the almost $1.50 per pound the year before.  Legs have declined from about $0.90 per pound to $0.59 per pound over the same period.  

It’s playoff time for the NFL and for college football, and that usually leads to a discussion of chicken wings.  It’s often noted that wholesale wing prices tend to increase leading up to the Super Bowl.  In 2025, wing prices did increase leading up to the game, but they kept on climbing into mid-year, hitting a peak of $2.64 per pound.  By the end of December, wholesale wings were down to $0.98 per pound, almost half the $1.88 per pound at the end of 2024 and lower than the 5-year average price of $1.24 per pound.

Several industry challenges are in place for 2026.  The first is lower chicken meat prices, cutting into profits that would fuel more growth.  HPAI continues to occur, recently hitting broiler farms and at least one broiler breeder facility.  On the positive side, demand for chicken appears to be growing.  The latest CPI report indicated that chicken prices declined compared to a year ago, making chicken even more affordable relative to beef.  The number of eggs set and chicks placed in December 2025 were up 1.3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, compared to the year before.  So, it looks like more broiler production is coming early in 2026.  

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Anderson, David. “Chicken Production Up and Prices Down.” Southern Ag Today 6(2.2). January 6, 2026. Permalink

Total meat production surged in December, with production of all major meat species higher than the year before.  It was a sharp contrast to the rest of the year, in which less beef and pork were produced than in 2024.  

Red Meat

Red meat production, led by beef and pork, normally increases seasonally, from Summer to Fall.  This year was no exception as both increased seasonally over that period.  Beef and pork production in December were 0.5 percent and 3.9 percent larger than in December 2024, respectively.  Larger December beef production may surprise some, given the talk all year of tighter beef supplies, but steer dressed weights surged to new record highs, over 980 pounds per head, leading to larger beef production.  Heavier barrow and gilt dressed weights than a year ago helped boost pork production, as well.  

For the year, red meat production was 1.9 percent less, about 1 billion pounds, than in 2024.  Beef production was down about 3.3 percent, and pork production was almost 0.5 percent smaller.  About 1 percent more lamb was produced in 2025.  For the third consecutive year, more pork than beef was produced.  

Poultry

While red meat production declined, young chickens (broilers) expanded their share of total meat production.  Broiler and turkey production increased 4.0 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, in December compared to last December.  Less expensive feed and higher wholesale broiler meat prices earlier in the year contributed profits to fuel increased production.  The late increase in turkey production might be considered “too little, too late” for the whole bird market since it was after Thanksgiving, and it followed on the heels of increasing production in the second half of the year. 

For the year, 3.5 percent (1.9 billion pounds) more broiler meat was produced than in 2024.  Turkey production was down about 122 million pounds.  On balance, increasing poultry production offset declining red meat production, leading to an increase in total meat production of about 800 million pounds.  

The new year should bring more poultry production from both broilers and turkeys.  Beef production will continue to decline, and pork may see a little increase in production.  I was asked recently if we are “running out of meat” during a discussion of declining beef production and high prices.  The quick and correct answer is “no!”  But, production market shares are changing.  

A note on data.  This article uses weekly meat and poultry production.  In much of our agricultural data, weeks don’t equal months.  The first day of a month may fall mid-week and end mid-week, so that data for a week’s production will include some in one month and some in another.  But, the monthly data released by USDA won’t dramatically affect the discussion above.