Category: Livestock Marketing

The current government shutdown has caused many weekly and monthly reports to not be published. However, USDA-AMS is still generating their daily and weekly reports. The beef industry knows that tight supplies have led to increased price movements over the last couple of years, but beef demand has become a hot topic as of late due to retail beef prices continuing to set all-time highs every month. These market movements have led to a common question, “could demand be decreasing and that’s why the cutout has been decreasing?” One data series that offers valuable insight into the intersection of beef supply and demand is the cutout value.

Figure 1 shows the weekly choice cutout value for this year, last year, and the previous 5-year average. In mid-September, the choice cutout peaked at $413.60/cwt, has steadily decreased each week, and finished last week at $365.25/cwt. This decline is somewhat expected due to seasonality trends. However, last week’s price was $56.82/cwt (18.4%) and $113.57/cwt (45.12%) higher than last year and the previous 5-year average for the same week. Even though the market has experienced peaks and recent declines in the choice cutout value, year-over-year demand indices suggest historically strong demand as consumers pay higher prices for the smaller amounts of beef available.  

Consumers make choices not only between cuts of beef but also grades of beef. Figure 2 shows the monthly cutout values by grade for the last 12 months. Since March of this year, each cutout grade has trended upward through September. Interestingly, the last two months have also had increasing spreads between prime and all other grades. To the question posed in the introduction paragraph, there is little data to suggest weakening demand. Tight beef supplies are driving prices higher and consumer demand is holding strong. Consumers will eat less beef overall in 2025 due to less availability, but the higher prices will allocate the various grades and cuts of beef to consumers.  

Figure 1. Weekly Choice Cutout Value

Figure 2. Monthly Graded Cutout Values for the previous 12 months

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Martinez, Charley, Parker Wyatt, and David Eli Mundy. “A Check in on the Beef Cutout.” Southern Ag Today 5(42.2). October 14, 2025. Permalink

Cull cow prices typically decline this time of the year as beef and dairy cow culling ramp up and the beef market is fully past grilling season.  Cow prices this Fall have shown just a little seasonal decline as tight beef supplies keep prices high.

Southern Plains cow prices at auctions have been about $165 per cwt since mid-year, with a brief dip into the low $150s in the last 2 weeks.  Prices a year ago at this time were under $120 per cwt. and were declining to their Fall lows.  Cutter quality cows have declined from about $137 to about $129 per cwt over the last few weeks, showing a little more seasonal decline.  On the meat side, the boxed cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean boneless beef have shown little seasonal decline and are sitting at record levels.

Total cow slaughter includes dairy and beef cows.  Beef and dairy cow slaughter each exhibit a different seasonality based on production patterns.  Beef cow slaughter hits its peak in the Fall when most culling occurs around the country.  Dairy cow slaughter peaks early in the first quarter of the year but, does increase in the Fall.  The dairy herd has been expanding this year due to profits hitting over 9.5 million head on September 1, 2025, the most since 1993.  As the herd has grown, culling has increased.  For the year, total dairy cow slaughter is almost 19 percent smaller than the same period in 2024.  But, in the last 2 months dairy cow slaughter is equal to last year.  Beef cow slaughter remains well below last year but may begin to pick up seasonally in coming weeks.  In total, cow culling has closed the gap compared to last year in recent weeks but, it has not been enough to weaken prices.  

Cull cow prices are going to stay high.  While a little more beef cow culling should occur this Fall even with larger dairy cow culling it won’t be enough to drastically boost supplies.  There is little evidence of consumers switching to competing meats indicating that demand remains quite good.  So, overall, this should be the best Fall cull cow market ever.

Anderson, David. “Cull Cow Prices See Just a Little Seasonal Decline.” Southern Ag Today 5(41.2). October 7, 2025. Permalink

This is not a question of which came first, we all know the answer to that. But, as was discussed in an earlier SAT for cattle, hogs and lambs, this is a question of productivity for the chicken and egg segments of the U.S. poultry market this coming year. (A turkey outlook previously discussed here)  

Chicken

Broiler production increased by 846 million pounds in 2024 over 2023, a 1.4 percent increase (Fig. 1).  Increased production came from two sources: more birds and more pounds per bird. On the bird side, 93 million more broilers were produced, a 1 percent increase. As has happened in 5 of the last 6 years, increased chicken production also came from producing a heavier bird, on average, 6.55 lbs. in 2024 vs. 6.52 lbs. in 2023. 

Production increases have been supported by profitable prices and falling feed costs. Broiler demand has likely benefited from increasing prices for beef and pork. So far in 2025, the increased productivity trend continues with the weekly average production maintaining about a 30-million-pound lead on historical weekly production back to 2019 and staying slightly above 2024 production. Though chick livability declined again in 2024, the lost birds were offset by placing more chicks overall (Fig. 2). 

One important question for broiler productivity is if the chicken industry can continue to boost the supply of additional chicks for broilers. This problem goes all the way back to the supply of broiler type pullets. These are the pullets that become laying hens that supply broiler chicks. The broiler hatchery supply flock had seen a steady increase since 2012. But, beginning in 2023, the supply flock began decreasing steadily, with only a slight reprieve being projected (Fig. 3). Just like fewer cows equals fewer feeder calves, fewer breeder hens equal fewer broiler chicks. This supply crunch may start hitting broiler production as early as Q1 2026.

Eggs

The same old scourge the industry has been fighting since February 2022 continues to haunt table egg supply – Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Since this outbreak began in 2022, 127 million laying hens have been lost. As outbreaks continue, new hens entering production must make up for lost birds and normal turnover.  While HPAI has sharply reduced the number of table egg layers since 2022, a longer term look at supplies reveals that the number of table eggs produced has been falling since 2019 (Fig. 4). Egg prices hit all-time highs in late 2022 and again in early 2025. But, during the interim period, prices were relatively stable. Price volatility seems to be mostly due to short-term supply challenges.  

Total per capita egg consumption is down from 286 eggs in 2020 to 271 in 2024 (egg-news.com sourced). While consumption tends to equal production (e.g., we eat all we produce), the question remains whether people are eating fewer eggs in general, or if consumption is down because of price and supply dynamics?  The sharp price spike in 2025 was followed by a marked decrease in egg demand (Fig. 5), which suggests price as a primary driver. But since then, prices have moderated, and demand hasn’t seemed to have rebounded much, which suggests this is more than just a price story. Interest in production and productivity is likely to remain important as HPAI occurrences are ramping up as Fall begins and wild bird migrations resume their normal patterns.

Fig. 1: Broiler production (chicken) in the us has been on a slower year over year increase in pounds for many years. Over the last 6 years, pounds of chicken produced have increased 5%. 1.4% in ’23 to ’24 alone, with 2025 projected to be another slight increase.

Fig. 2: Increased placements of broiler chicks has overcome an increase in mortality to maintain increasing production of chicken meat. 

Fig. 3: Broiler laying hen supply has been decreasing the past several years, possibly stressing the future supply chain broiler chicks. 

Fig. 4: Total Table Eggs being produced has been decreasing since 2019, as well as the number of eggs consumed per person annually. (USDA-NASS)

Fig. 5: Egg prices can cause noticeable reactions to egg demand, especially when those prices are extremely high, as in early 2025.

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Brothers, Dennis. “The Chicken or The Egg…. Productivity in 2026.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.2). September 30, 2025. Permalink

The USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report showed continued tightening of feedlot supplies. Total cattle on feed was down only 1.1 percent from a year ago, but both placements into feedlots and marketings out of feedlots were sharply below year-ago levels.

As of September 1, feedlots with 1,000 head or more reported 11.1 million cattle on feed. Placements during August were 1.78 million head, a 9.9 percent decline from August 2024. Placements were lower across all weight classes. This was the lowest August placement total since 2015. 

At 1.57 million head, fed cattle marketed in August dropped 13.6 percent from a year ago. This was the lowest August marketing level since the series began in 1996. Excluding the early months of the pandemic, August 2025 was also the lowest marketings total of any month since 2015. There was one less slaughter day this year, which accounted for some of the difference, but this is still a very low marketings total. 

Regional differences are stark. The three largest cattle feeding states are Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas, which combine for about 65 percent of total cattle on feed. Despite smaller placements, cattle on feed in Nebraska was up 4.7 percent, and Kansas was up 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, the number of cattle on feed in Texas was 9.1 percent below September 2024, driven by an 18 percent decline in placements into Texas feedlots. The closure of the southern border to imports of feeder cattle due to concerns of New World Screwworm is impacting southern feedlots and could lead to Texas being surpassed by Nebraska as the largest cattle feeding state in the coming months. 

Nebraska has surpassed Texas in monthly totals only nine times, with most of those instances occurring during 2014-2016 and driven by severe drought reductions in Texas cattle. On September 1, Texas had 70 thousand head more cattle on feed than Nebraska and 150 thousand more than Kansas. This is much tighter than the 430 thousand and 470 thousand differences from a year ago. The 150 thousand head difference between Texas and Kansas is the closest since 1992.

Overall, this report was pretty telling about the current dynamics of the cattle and beef sector. At the national level, placements and marketings slowed sharply in August. A closer look at state-level statistics shows the shift northward in cattle feeding numbers as southern feeders face even tighter supplies. 

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Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “Feedlot Placements and Marketings Down Sharply from Year Ago.” Southern Ag Today 5(39.2). September 23, 2025. Permalink

A few weeks ago, the current state of beef and pork prices was addressed in Southern Ag Today. Poultry, namely chicken and turkey, make up the bulk of the remainder of the American animal protein diet. Chicken is at the top of the list, with over 100 pounds per capita annually consumed. Turkey, on the other hand, is last on the consumption list. 

However, Thanksgiving is Turkey’s time to shine. This seasonal demand certainly affects price, but it is also part of the turkey production schedule. Late May or early June placements of young toms are targeted to be ready to hit the fresh market for Thanksgiving. August placements would target smaller young hens. So far in 2025, poult placement is down every month leading up to August compared to last year. Also, turkey egg set was lower in most months in 2025 compared to 2024. However, July eggs set in hatcheries for August poult placement are up 1 percent over last year. Depending on the hatch, these eggs could bolster more fresh birds ready for the table in November. But overall, there have been fewer poults placed in 2025, likely meaning fewer fresh young toms and hens, which could lead to higher prices this holiday. The frozen market, while seasonally trending up, has less pounds of turkeys in cold storage compared to years past (Fig. 1), which also suggests a lower supply this holiday season. 

With lower supply usually comes higher prices. In Fig. 2, we see that, for both large and small lot purchases, fresh turkey prices are higher in 2025 than in 2024. Although large quantity buyers were steady at $1.40/lb going into fall, those prices may increase over the next month as availability dwindles, and holiday inventory build begins. In fact, early September trading is trending in the $1.55/lb area. Many of these birds may be going into cold storage for Thanksgiving sales. 

While current turkey prices are looking positive for producers, turkey growers have had a difficult time these past few years dealing with the loss of over 18 million birds to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Overall production has been below historical averages in the past two years (Fig. 3). This fall has seen several cases of HPAI hit turkey operations, causing bird losses totaling 195,200 from August through early September. As wildfowl migration ramps up, more cases will likely appear this fall. Depending on the timing and severity of such outbreaks, the fresh turkey market could get hit with additional supply shrinkage, which would translate into yet higher prices for the 2025 holiday season.

(Fig. 1) Frozen turkey in storage is lower this year than the previous three years but trending upward as is usual for the season. With overall placements being down, this decreased supply may linger and be a positive leverage for prices this year. 

Fig. 2: Smaller turkeys, typically young hens, are where most whole birds come from, both fresh and frozen. Large truckload lot prices have been steady for these birds, perhaps reflecting contracted long-term pricing from larger buyers. However, as can be seen in the small lot pricing, as holiday demand starts to build, prices are likely to increase in the next month. 

Fig. 3: Turkey production has been below historical average for the last two seasons, and looking at egg set and poult placement, this number is not expected to rebound soon.

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Brothers, Dennis. “Turkeys – A 2025 Holiday Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(38.2). September 16, 2025. Permalink