Category: Livestock Marketing

In a recent Southern Ag Today article, Anderson and Maples addressed increasing slaughter weights in beef cattle while also mentioning slaughter weights are increasing in swine and poultry. In this article, we will address poultry weights, specifically broilers.

Broiler slaughter weight has been increasing, however, the reasons for the increase are different than was outlined in the referenced beef article.  The trend is a long-term situation rather than a short- or intermediate-term phenomenon. Broiler weights have been on a steady increase since the 1920s. The primary driver of these increases is market-derived; it is a slow change based on U.S. poultry consumers’ desire combined with the changing genetic potential of the birds. Unlike the beef industry, where the producers, feeders, and packers are usually separate entities, the poultry companies producing chicken own the chickens and control their genetics and production from the egg to chicken sandwich. 

Most chickens in the U.S. are produced to meet specific market demands, and this requires varying sizes of birds. Grocery store chill-packaged products like split breasts or boneless breasts usually come from birds in the 6– 7-pound range. Fast food chicken restaurants like Popeyes or KFC typically require smaller birds to fill their “pieces” menu. These birds are usually 3.5-to-4-pound slaughter weight. The same companies sell chicken sandwiches that require filets from larger birds of upwards to 9-pound slaughter weight. Frozen processed chicken fingers and sandwich filets at the grocery store are best produced from larger birds as well. As consumers have demanded more chicken sandwiches, chicken fingers, breast filets, etc., and fewer whole birds or cut-up pieces, poultry companies have moved their genetic target toward producing birds that more efficiently meet these demands per square foot of grow-out space. Simply put, you can get more chicken fingers per square foot of grow-out space from a bigger chicken. This demand has pushed companies to produce more of the larger birds and increase the size of the larger birds (Fig 1). Since companies own the chickens and control the genetics and production, they can make these changes in response to consumer trends quickly and sustain those changes over time. From 1955 to 2021, the combined average of all broiler sizes in the U.S. increased from 3 pounds to approximately 6.5 pounds, or 116%, in response to U.S. consumer demands. But that’s not the whole story. Along with increasing weights, the poultry industry has decreased the amount of feed needed by 38 percent, from 3.0 pounds to 1.85 pounds of feed per pound of gain. The time it takes to achieve average market weight has decreased by about 20 days. Overall mortality has also decreased, though recently a change in production methods has caused a slight uptick in mortality (Fig 2). All these changes have been achieved by foundational efforts in genetics, nutritional advances, and grow-out environment/housing improvements. Overall, this represents a case study in sustainability – producing more output with fewer inputs. In commercial poultry’s case, that means more chicken for less feed, over less time, with less environmental impact.  

Fig 1. Broiler weights (bird size) have increased a remarkable amount from the 1950’s to the modern bird of today. These changes have been the result of focused genetics, improved nutrition and bird environment.

Fig. 2: From 1955 to modern day, average broiler weights have increased by 116 percent. At the same time, feed conversion has improved by 38 percent. Days of age to slaughter have also decreased by 27 percent, and mortality by 21 percent.

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Brothers, Dennis. “Increasing Size in Broilers – A Long-Term Trend.” Southern Ag Today 5(7.2). February 11, 2025. Permalink

USDA released its Cattle inventory report on Friday, January 31^st.  This report is the benchmark for data on the number of total cattle in the U.S. and estimates of beef and dairy cows, replacement heifers, and stockers on small grain pastures.  The data is the starting point for estimates of beef production and prices in the future.

The big numbers in the report included a January 1, 2025, total cattle inventory of 86.66 million head, down 1 percent from the year before and the fewest since 1951.  Beef cows were down 0.6 percent to 27.86 million head the fewest since 1961.  Heifers for beef cow replacement were down 1 percent to 4.67 million, the fewest since 1949. 

One of the interesting components of these statistical reports are revisions.  USDA gathers the surveys and other information from other surveys and data reports and revises the previous year’s data if warranted. Sometimes revisions are important and sometimes they are a non-event.  This report had some revisions that are interesting.  Some states were not reported beginning in this survey due to budget cuts.  While producers were surveyed, their numbers were only included in the total U.S. statistics.

Today’s article includes comments from SAT livestock economist writers to offer a few thoughts on their state and the report across the South.  

Matt Fischer, Clemson University:

South Carolina cattle and calves inventory expanded in 2025 from 2024.  Total cattle calves inventory on January 31, 2025, was reported 295,000, up 2% from 2024.  Cow inventory increased in 2025 by 1%, from 156,000 to 157,000.  Unfortunately, USDA did not provide inventory on any other category.  Leaving speculation where the missing 4,000 head would be categorized, hopefully in unreported heifer inventory.  Regardless, South Carolina reported inventory expansion in 2023 only to follow liquidation trend in 2024.  

Will Secor, University of Georgia:

Broadly, the report was in-line with expectations. Georgia’s total cattle inventory and its inventory of beef cows declined by about 2% in 2025 compared to 2024. This confirms that there was no herd rebuilding in Georgia last year. However, these declines are smaller compared to last year despite dry weather struggles throughout much of the year. Additionally, the number of beef cow replacement heifers held steady at 85 thousand head. 

Hannah Baker, University of Florida:

In Florida, the total number of cattle and calves was unchanged at 1.56 million head. The number of beef cows that calved in 2024 slightly increased by 0.3% (3,000 head) to 865,000 head. Florida is now ranked 10th in beef cattle production (9th last year). Florida’s 2024 calf crop was 1% larger than 2023’s at 770,000 head. The number of beef cow replacements remained unchanged at 115,000 head, unlike last year when we saw a 4% decline. While we don’t see major signs of expansion, we do see signs of stabilization starting in the Florida beef cow herd. 

Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky:

The overall decrease in beef cow numbers was not a surprise. But cow slaughter really pulled back in late 2024 and I do think the decrease in beef cow numbers was smaller than what many expected in the first half of 2024. The 200,000 cow downward revision to 2024 beef cow numbers is also worth noting. My general take on beef cow numbers is that liquidation is slowing, but that is primarily due to reduced culling.

Beef heifer retention was down by about 1% (also after a downward revision to last year), which was largely expected given the number of heifers on feed. The main point here is that we are still not currently retaining enough heifers to grow the beef herd given a reasonable assumption of cow slaughter in 2025. 

If weather allows, I think it is very possible that we see more heifer retention during 2025. It’s also good to remind ourselves that the January 1 report is a snapshot of inventory. There are additional heifers in growing programs (grazing, backgrounding, etc.) that could also potentially be bred this year if market and weather conditions remain favorable. And the inverse is also true – not all of those heifers being held for replacement purposes will end up entering the cow herd.

I don’t know what to make of the decrease in cattle grazing small grains. The calf crop was smaller last year, wheat grazing prospects were late to develop, and I also think a lot of calves moved early because it was dry for much of late summer-early fall.

NASS estimated our beef cow herd to be down by 38,000 head. This was consistent with what our county Extension agents had been telling me. Land constraints are real in the Commonwealth. We have lost a lot of pasture ground to row crop and development pressures. High land prices do tend to negatively impact cow numbers, especially for young and beginning farmers. I did not expect to see the increase in the estimated number of heifers held for beef replacements. But there was also an estimated increase in the heavy (> 500 lbs) steer and bull categories. I think this speaks to a gradual shift away from cows and towards growing operations in Kentucky.

Andrew Griffith, University of Tennessee:

I expected a larger decline in the beef cow herd and beef heifers held for replacement given the quantity of heifers that went on feed and the fact that cow slaughter was still a large number. Beef cow slaughter was certainly much lower in 2024 than in 2023, but beef cow slaughter in 2023 was extremely large. Thus, this was a little surprising to me. As far as state of Tennessee, I was surprised that the beef cow herd declined by 9,000 head while the number of heifers remained the same. Somehow, we maintained the same calf crop compared to last year despite having fewer cows. I do have some concerns about the survey response rate over time.

Josh Maples, Mississippi State University:

Total cattle inventory in Mississippi was unchanged at 810,000 head. The calf crop was also reported unchanged at 345,000 head. I was a little surprised the calf crop was not lower in Mississippi. The big adjustment this year was the change in data reported. Mississippi is one of the 19 states that were dropped (due to USDA-NASS budget cuts) from individual state reporting for important categories such as beef cows, replacements, etc. Producers were still surveyed, but their responses were aggregated into the total cattle number presented. 

David Anderson, Texas A&M University:The beef cow herd increased about 60,000 head or 1.5% from January 1, 2024.  But, this larger cow herd is the result of a downward revision to last year’s cow herd.  I often think it is helpful to look at the data over a longer period and doing so shows that the herd is smaller than 2 years ago.  So, I don’t think the report is too surprising thinking about it in that context.  Fewer replacement heifers were retained according to the responses.  The 4.075 million beef cows reported are the fewest since 1959 except for the 3.9 million in 2014 following the drought of 2010-2013.  

The January Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday afternoon. Total on-feed inventory to start the year was estimated at a little over 11.8 million head, which is down by just under 1% from January of 2024. Even though feeder cattle supplies have been lower, feedlot inventories ran above year-ago levels for eight of twelve months in 2024 as lower feed prices encouraged longer feeding times. While I don’t want to read too much into it, this was the largest year-over-year decline since May.

Placements were once again the headliner of the report as they came in below, and outside the range of pre-report estimates. December 2024 placements were estimated at 1.64 million, which was 3.3% below December 2023. On the surface, this seemed logical as December represented a full month of not receiving live cattle imports from Mexico. This also marked the second month in a row with placement levels being more than 3% below year-ago.

Friday’s report was also a quarterly cattle-on-feed report, which means it included an estimate of the steer/heifer breakdown. In the absence of a July cattle inventory report, this has been one of the main indicators economists have been tracking for evidence of heifer retention. Heifers accounted for 38.7% of the total on-feed inventory on January 1, 2025. While this doesn’t speak to retention, it is worth noting that this is about 1% lower than last January and 1% lower than October 2024. So, it does bear watching as we move further into 2025. Again, I think imports from Mexico had some impact here as heifers had represented a higher than usual share of imports prior to the ban in late November.

Last week’s cattle on feed report will be overshadowed later this week as USDA-NASS will release their annual inventory estimates on the afternoon of January 31^st. While beef cow slaughter was down sharply for 2024, most are still expecting continued decreases in beef cattle numbers at the national level. It will be interesting to see the state-by-state numbers and specifically to look at areas where heifer retention may have already begun. Given the favorable price outlook for calves, I think heifer retention is very possible in 2025 if weather is cooperative. But I also think this will be a relatively slow cow-herd expansion once retention does begin.

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Burdine, Kenny. “Placements Lower Than Expected in January Cattle-On-Feed Report.” Southern Ag Today 5(5.2). January 28, 2025. Permalink

Three weeks into the new year and the cattle market continues to set new record highs.  The 5-market average fed cattle price hit $203 on Friday, January 17^th, creeping higher from the $202 per cwt average of the week before.  This current price rally is continuing the rising price trend that began late in 2024.  Historically, it would not be unusual for prices to pull back in February before climbing even higher to a Spring rally.  

Rising prices are not limited to the fed cattle market.  Calf and feeder cattle prices have shared in the rally.  Feeder cattle, 700-800 pound steers reported by Georgia auctions hit $251 per cwt last week, $42 per cwt higher than this time last year.  In the Southern Plains, cattle of that same weight category hit $279 per cwt.  The weekly average Choice beef cutout increased to $329.03 per cwt, just slightly below the mid-2024 peak of $329.96.  Positive beef and cattle demand is contributing to higher prices.  Some tighter supplies of feeder cattle and calves due to the restriction on calves from Mexico, feedlot placements earlier in the year, and maybe some withholding of heifers from auctions are boosting feeder prices.  It appears that the resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico are going to be further delayed as new facilities and inspection procedures remain in the works. 

USDA’s January Cattle on Feed report is scheduled to be released on Friday of this week.  The pre-report estimates indicate feedlot marketings about 1.4 percent higher than December of the year before.  Analysts’ expectations for feedlot placements range from above to below a year ago.  The combination of placements and marketings leads to January 1 feedlot numbers slightly below those of a year ago.  This report will have the quarterly breakdown of steers and heifers in feedlots which will add another data point to expectations of the start of cowherd expansion. 

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Anderson, David. “New Record High Prices.” Southern Ag Today 5(4.2). January 21, 2025. Permalink

Recent SAT articles on the cattle market have mentioned the surge in fed cattle dressed weights as an important factor in boosting fed beef production in 2024.  This article puts 2024’s dressed weights into some historical context and looks at some factors that will influence dressed weights this year. Since 1964, federally inspected steer dressed weights have increased from 662 pounds to 931 pounds in 2024.  That is a 41 percent increase over that time period.  A simple average of percentage change per year equals 0.68 percent, or 4.75 pounds per year increase in steer dressed weights.

The chart of steer dressed weights illustrates this trend in increasing weights.  It also illustrates that this growth is not a straight line of increasing weights every year.  There are many examples of year-to-year declining steer weights.  Many of these years with large weight changes correspond to years with interesting challenges.  For example, steer dressed weights declined 28 pounds from 1974 to 1975 and rebounded 23 pounds from 1975 to 1976.  Other examples might be 2001-2003 or 2014-2016. The 23 pound increase in annual average dressed weight from 2023 to 2024 is significant, but is not the largest year-over-year increase.  Even larger annual increases were recorded in 1985, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2020.  

Large annual increases are often followed by declining weights.  Could weights decline in 2025?  There are several factors that could lead to a decline in weights including winter storms that pull down weights.  As cattle numbers further tighten, the need to run packing plants at efficient levels could pull cattle out of feedlots faster and lighter.  However, good beef demand will create an incentive to try to produce more beef per head pushing weights higher to offset fewer cattle.  Continued lower corn prices lowers the cost of gain which is an incentive to feed to heavier weights.  

We might consider the effect of increasing weights and the implied increase in production per cow on beef cow inventory in the future.  Heavier weights implies fewer beef cows are needed to maintain level beef production.  The 23-pound increase in dressed weight multiplied by the approximately 15.1 million head of federally inspected steers slaughtered in 2024 is the equivalent of about 371 thousand steers.  Put another way, increased dressed weights offset the need for 371,000 steers suggesting the need for fewer cows.  This is a rough example that could use some refinement, but the point remains that increased weights likely impact the cow herd expansion.

This article used only steer dressed weights.  Heifer dressed weights have increased at an even faster rate and cow weights have increased, too.  Heavier weights are not limited to cattle as hog and poultry weights have increased over time but, those weights are for another article.  There is little reason to expect weights to stop their long-term growth.  But the data shows it’s a bumpy ride to heavier weights with fits and starts along the way.

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Anderson, David, and Josh Maples. “Fed Cattle Weights and Herd Expansion.” Southern Ag Today 5(3.2). January 14, 2025. Permalink