Category: Livestock Marketing

The cattle market has experienced a lot of volatility in recent weeks, especially in the futures market, due to tariff announcements and recession fears.  But, prices have rebounded since the first tariff announcements due to fundamental market conditions.  Those fundamental conditions include tight supplies of cattle, relatively low feed prices, and grilling season.

Live fed steer prices weighted across all grades averaged $207.70 per cwt the week of April 13^th, following the flood of tariff announcements.  Prices quickly rebounded to over $212 per cwt. in the ensuing weeks after averaging over $211 per cwt for the three weeks prior to the tariff announcements. Calf and feeder cattle markets across the South experienced price declines during that same week.  Georgia auction 500-600 pound steers dropped about $7 per cwt from early April to the week of April 12^th before rebounding to $368 per cwt.  Mississippi auctions experienced a more dramatic decline, dropping $13 per cwt before recapturing about half of the decline.  

Beef production remains relatively close to last year.  From January through April 26, beef production is equal to last year.  But over the last month production is down 1.3 percent compared to last year.  Using the daily slaughter data, fed steer and heifer slaughter is down 2.8 percent in April compared to last April.  Heavier weights are continuing to keep beef production high relative to what steer and heifer slaughter would suggest. This is further showcased by the growth in cattle grading prime relative to select. Since March 15, there has been a higher percentage of fed cattle grading prime (about 12 percent) than there has select (about 11.3 percent). 

One thing worth watching, that we will monitor in coming SAT’s, is weekly U.S. exports of beef to China.  Tariffs appear to have severely damaged exports in the early reported weekly export data.  For the week of April 17^th,the U.S. exported only 186 metric tons of beef to China.  That is the smallest weekly exports since March 2020 at the beginning of Covid.  Exports for the week of April 10th totaled 1,431 metric tons.  China has been our 3^rdlargest export market for beef, following Japan and South Korea.  Tariffs appear to have impacted U.S. pork exports similarly. So far, the other fundamentals have overshadowed the impact of reduced trade to China, but that might not be the case for the rest of the year.   

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Anderson, David. “Volatility and Fundamentals.” Southern Ag Today 5(18.2). April 29, 2025. Permalink

The headline numbers of feedlot marketings, placements, and total cattle on feed were not a lot different from expectations.  Feedlot marketings in March were just over 1 percent larger than the previous March.  With the same number of working days in the month as last year, daily average marketings slightly outpaced a year ago.  Placements were 5.1 percent larger than last year.  Larger placements were not a surprise due to an expectation that placements were delayed a bit from February and, normal, seasonally larger March placements from wheat and other small grain pastures.  Larger placements and marketings left the total number of cattle on feed 1.6 percent fewer than last year.  

Placements for the year are worth another look.  For the first 3 months of the year, placements are 4 percent, or 216,000 head, fewer than last year.  But, feeder cattle imports from Mexico through March are down 227,000 head compared to a year ago.  Remember that there were no imports through January and much slower imports in February due to screwworm regulations.  Taken together, the decline in imports from Mexico is larger than the total decline in placements so far this year.  The impact of fewer feeders from Mexico likely shows up in Texas’ placements, which are down 13.1 percent for the year.

To save the best for last, the most interesting part of this report was the quarterly estimate of the number of heifers in feedlots on April 1.  Heifers on feed were down 4 percent, or 180,000 head, compared to April 2024. The 4.38 million heifers on feed were the fewest since April 2020 and before that, April 2018.  Since the first of the year, 77,000 fewer spayed heifers were imported from Mexico, so they make up a portion of that decline.  While the headline of fewer heifers on feed may raise eyebrows, the number remains large.  There have been more than 4 million heifers on feed for 30 consecutive quarters, and they make up 37.6 percent of the cattle on feed.  We’ll have to wait for larger and consecutive declines in heifers on feed as evidence of any heifer retention for herd rebuilding.

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Anderson, David, and Josh Maples. “Fewer Heifers in Feedlots.” Southern Ag Today 5(17.2). April 22, 2025. Permalink

Tighter cow numbers over the past few years have led to smaller calf crops and fewer cattle to sell. According to data from the USDA-AMS National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary, the number of feeder and stocker cattle sold during the first 14 weeks of 2025 totaled 3.72 million head which was 9.5 percent below the number sold during the same period in 2024. Receipts so far in 2025 are down 9 percent year to date when compared to the 4-year average from 2020-2023. 

2018 was the peak in sales for the current cattle cycle as shown in the chart above. The 2024 total was 11 percent below 2018 and 4 percent below 2023. It is still early in 2025, but the current trend, and general lower cattle supply, suggest that 2025 sales will be lower again. This dataset includes auction, direct, and video/internet sales reported to USDA. It is not a comprehensive dataset as it does not capture all feeder and stocker cattle transactions, and the report notes that “receipts vary depending on the number of auctions reported.” However, given the similar methodology over time, comparisons are useful in comparing market dynamics to previous years.  

The report also gives information about the mix of steers and heifers. It is interesting to compare 2024-2025 to 2014-2015 in the context of heard expansion. As shown in the chart below, the percentage of heifers has been higher in 2024 and 2025 than it was in 2014 and 2015. When herd expansion begins, we’d expect the share of heifers in the feeder cattle mix to decline as producers begin to retain more heifers. This is another indicator that producers have not yet started retaining heifers in the same way that they were in 2014-2015 when that herd expansion period began. 

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Maples, Josh. “2025 National Feeder and Stocker Receipts and Heifer Percentage.” Southern Ag Today 5(16.2). April 15, 2025. Permalink

With all the talk about the number of cows and cattle in the U.S., when herd rebuilding might begin, tariffs, and recent record high prices it seems like a good time to re-visit cattle numbers and beef production from a longer-term view.  

Things We Know

The cattle industry remains a cyclical industry.  The cattle cycle is driven by biology and economics with events like droughts interrupting the cycle.  Beef production is cyclical also.  It follows from the cow herd expansion or contraction, the number of calves, and the weights of those finished cattle.  

The beef cow inventory has declined since its peak in 1975 at 45.7 million head.  Each peak in the number of cows has been smaller than the previous cyclical peak over that time.  The cow herd declined, as part of the current cycle, to 27.9 million head in 2025, the fewest since 1961.  While the herd has moved cyclically up and down every 10-12 years, the overall trend in beef cows is declining over time.

In contrast to cow numbers, beef production has been trending higher since 1975.  Following the 1975 peak in cows, beef production peaked in 1976 at 25.7 billion pounds. This remained the high mark until 1999 when beef production hit 26.4 billion pounds. Production has since exceeded the 1974 level in all but 4 years, despite the lower cow numbers.  Genetics and feeding improvements have led fed beef production to have an upward trend even with fewer head. The key is the trend in cattle weights.  The U.S. has a long-term trend toward heavier weights driven by economics, genetics, technology, cattle size, feeding, and nutrition. 

What Does This Suggest?

The industry has experienced tremendous growth through productivity gains that show up in animal weights.  The cattle cycle shows up in beef production as it does in herd numbers.  Declining cattle numbers reduces beef production, mitigated by heavier weights and cow culling, and supports higher prices leading to herd expansion.  A growing cattle herd increases beef production by even more as weights increase. 

This discussion leads to questions to consider.  Can we get back to cattle numbers of the past? This would imply more ranchers, more feedlots, and more industry infrastructure? Or will the next cycle continue to the trend of a smaller peak than the most recent cyclical peak in 2019?  Recent record high prices have not quite yet led to herd expansion – but when that expansion comes, can the herd eclipse the 2019 total of 31.6 million head and deliver profitable balance sheets to continue rebuilding?  

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Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “Cattle Inventory and Beef Production.” Southern Ag Today 5(15.2). April 8, 2025. Permalink

Spring is here and not only are calf and fed cattle prices record high, but cull cow prices have joined the action.  Cow prices typically increase from late in the previous year until about May-June.  Both supply and demand factors contribute to higher cull cow prices in the Spring.  On the supply side, total cow slaughter tends to decline until the middle of the year.  On the demand side grilling season is starting and that means more demand for ground beef.  

Cull cow prices in the Southern Plains have increased from $121 to $145 per cwt since the first of the year.  Auction prices a year ago in those markets averaged $134 per cwt.  On the meat side, the cow-beef cutout climbed to $297 per cwt.  At the same time, wholesale 90 percent lean boneless beef hit $382 per cwt.  Pretty clearly tight supplies and Spring grilling season demands are sending prices higher.  

On the supply side, cow slaughter, typically, slowly declines until mid-year.  That is about where we are through March, maybe a small downward trend in weekly average slaughter.  While the pattern of slaughter is pretty normal, the numbers going to slaughter are sharply lower.  Through mid-March, beef and dairy cow slaughter are down 20 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.  The decline amounts to 16,000 fewer total cows going to packers per week than last year. 

It’s worth noting that beef cow and dairy cow slaughter exhibit different seasonality throughout the year.  Beef cow slaughter tends to decline in Spring, have a mid-year increase, then a peak late in the year.  Dairy cow culling peaks early then declines to seasonal lows in mid-year.  Production systems across the country largely explain these seasonal peaks and valleys.

While cow slaughter is lower than last year reducing lean beef supplies, imports are adding lean beef trimming supplies.  Beef imports in January totaled a monthly record of 608 million pounds.  Imports from Brazil were almost a third of total beef imports for the month at 198 million pounds.  Brazilian beef imports normally decline after January so total beef imports should decline over the next few months.  

There is more room for cow prices to increase further over the next couple of months.  Grilling season is just getting started for a lot of the country.  Fewer cows going to market will keep prices above a year ago the rest of the year.  Higher fed cattle prices should help support cull cow prices.  

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Anderson, David. “Record Cow Prices! It’s Not April Fools!” Southern Ag Today 5(14.2). April 1, 2025. Permalink