Category: Policy

So far, 2022 has been a stressful weather year with large portions of the country suffering from first severe cold and then severe drought. Spring storms and tornados have destroyed farm equipment, buildings, and fence lines. Weather risk is something all producers think about and should manage in some way. This could mean diversification of crops, adoption of production practices to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather, and participation in crop insurance. 

Weather risk management is more critical than ever. The number of extreme weather events has increased since the turn of the century. Between 1980 and 2019, states in the southern climate region (AR, KS, LA, MS, OK and TX) were affected by 182 weather-related disasters with multi-state impacts totaling $660B (NOAA). The average number of events per year increased to 6.6 disasters per year from 2000 to 2019 compared to 2.6 disasters per year from 1980 to 1999. These types of extreme weather events affect households and agricultural producers years into the future. 

Ad hoc disaster assistance has been reported by USDA-Economic Research Service since 1998. From 2000 to 2019, ad hoc disaster programs resulted in $46B in payments to agricultural producers and averaged $2B per year. Ad hoc payments were about 15% of the total direct payments to producers on average but varied widely by year. Nationally, these programs have addressed damages due to hurricanes, drought, extreme heat and cold, flooding, blizzards, and severe weather. Programs include

• Crop Insurance
• Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program
• Tree Assistance Program
• Livestock Indemnity Program
• Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-Raised Fish
• Livestock Forage Program
• Emergency Conservation Program

In September 2021, as part of the continuing resolution to fund the Federal government, Congress provided an additional $10 billion in disaster assistance for crop and livestock producers.  In response, USDA launched a new Emergency Livestock Relief Program and Emergency Relief Program for producers affected by qualifying weather disasters in 2020 (ERP) and 2021 (ELRP and ERP). Like the recent Wildfire and Hurricane Indemnity Program-Plus (WHIP+), ERP is tied to risk management decisions. Row crop producers eligible for a Phase I ERP must have participated in crop insurance and received an indemnity in a qualifying event on their crop. Payment factors are tied to the level of coverage producers participated in, like WHIP+, as shown in the table. It is also tied to future risk management. To receive the Phase I ERP payment producers will also agree to purchase crop insurance for the next two crop years. Producers who participated in NAP will be addressed in additional phases of the ERP but no details are available at this time. As we draw closer to the 2023 Farm Bill discussions, these ad hoc disaster programs and the increased tie between risk management and program payments may be a point of further discussion.  

Coverage Level	WHIP+ Factor	ERP Factor
Uninsured	70%	Not included at this time
Catastrophic	75%	75%
NAP Basic	75%	75%
NAP 50	75%	80%
NAP 55	75%	85%
NAP 60	NA	90%
NAP 65	NA	95%
50% – <55%	77.5%	80%
55% – <60%	80%	82.5%
60% – <65%	82.5%	85%
65% – <70%	85%	87.5%
70% – <75%	87.5%	90%
75% – <80%	92.5%	92.5%
> = 80%	95%	95%
Supplemental Coverage Option	95%	Not included at this time

Source: USDA FSA www.farmers.gov

Hagerman, Amy. “USDA Launches New Disaster Program for 2020 and 2021 Crop Years“. Southern Ag Today 2(22.4). May 26, 2022. Permalink

In 2017 Extension Economists from across the South worked on a major producer education effort that resulted in a book titled Surviving the Farm Economy Downturn^[1].  The 1980s is second only to the Great Depression in terms of really bad financial outcomes for agricultural producers in the United States.  In the 1980s, the sustained decline in farm incomes and corresponding drop in land values triggered a large number of loan defaults leading to a significant number of farm bankruptcies.  The chapter I worked on was titled “Are We Headed Toward Another Farm Financial Crisis as Severe as the 1980s?”  The chapter evaluated six of the variables often cited as contributing in some way to the 1980s downturn such as high interest and exchange rates, collapsing land values, and rising debt to asset ratios.  At that time the conclusion was that while the late 2016-2017 period had a few caution signs, only the strong exchange rate was similar to the 1980s and that U.S. agriculture was not going into another major downturn.

The Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates by one-half point with strong signals that more increases are on the way.  This triggered my thinking about what happens when our current near record crop prices decline to their new normal along with inputs prices that are sticky on the way down.  According to USDA survey data, U.S. agricultural producers, on average, have relatively low debt and many are in quite strong cash flow positions.  Low debt makes farmers much less vulnerable to a collapse in land values.  But, I think the biggest reason the U.S. won’t see a crisis like the 1980s again is the federal crop insurance program.  Crop insurance had very low participation during the 1980s with less than 50 million acres covered generally at low levels of buy-up on yield policies (Figure 1).  Over time, a lot of innovation has occurred in crop insurance policies.  Now, around 225 million acres are covered generally by revenue insurance policies bought up to at least the 70 percent coverage level.  With virtually all cropland covered by some type of policy, significant within year price declines will be covered by revenue insurance.  Due to this, there wouldn’t be the tremendous pressure on farm incomes contributing to lower land values and increased loan defaults.  What about a sustained price decline scenario?  That is where crop insurance coupled with price loss coverage provides significant protection.

Figure 1.  Planted Acres for Major Crops in Crop Insurance, 1981-2021.

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^[1] https://www.afpc.tamu.edu/extension/resources/downturn-book/Surviving-the-Farm-Economy-Downturn.pdf

Outlaw, Joe. “Crop Insurance the Key to Avoiding Another Farm Economy Downturn“. Southern Ag Today 2(20.4). May 12, 2022. Permalink

While questions about market power in the meatpacking sector have been around for well over 100 years, the spike in retail beef prices following the fire at the Tyson facility in Holcomb, Kansas, in August 2019, and the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020, brought about a renewed focus on the issue.  In response to concerns in the countryside, several legislators offered policy solutions, with the bulk focused primarily on enhancing transparency and increasing negotiated trade volumes in fed cattle markets. 

With a number of legislative proposals floating around and with the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act set to expire in September 2020, the bi-partisan leadership of the House Agriculture Committee asked the Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University to evaluate a number of issues in the cattle markets.  Given the sensitivity and regional nature of the topic, we chose to partner with several respected livestock economists from across the country.  That work ultimately culminated in the release of a book in October 2021 that cautioned against many of the proposed changes, warning that proposals to mandate a minimum amount of negotiated purchases could ultimately reduce prices to cattle producers.

Following the release of that book, Senators Grassley (R-IA), Fischer (R-NE), Tester (D-MT), and Wyden (D-OR) released a compromise bill – the Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act of 2021 (S. 3229) – that would, among other things, require the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture to establish a regional mandatory minimum threshold for the percentage of cattle purchased under negotiated grid or negotiated pricing terms.  Senator John Boozman, Ranking Member, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry asked AFPC to evaluate the bill.  Our January 2022 report found that an additional 6 million head would have to be purchased via negotiation from 2022 to 2026, with the burden (and cost) falling largely on the Southern Plains.

In April 2022, Senators Fischer (R-NE), Grassley (R-IA), Tester (D-MT), and Wyden (D-OR) released an updated version of their bill – the Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act of 2022 (S. 4030).  Senator Boozman again asked AFPC to weigh in on the updated bill.  Our latest report, released last Friday, found that the number of head impacted by the updated bill would likely be lower than in S. 3229, but we cautioned that the updated bill gives so much discretion to the Secretary that it was virtually impossible to assess the expected costs to the cattle industry.  When taking all of the uncertainty into account, we noted that it was conceivable that the estimated cost of the latest bill could far exceed earlier estimates. 

Last week, a group of livestock economists – all of whom were involved in drafting the book noted above – independently released a report noting there is “no research evidence of any significant or persistent fed cattle price discovery problem at this time” and that proposed legislation would impose “many millions of dollars of additional cost, added risk, and lost value”  that would result in “lower feeder cattle prices and higher consumer beef prices.”  Over the course of the past two years, that is a consistent message we’ve heard from every economist we’ve consulted.

Fischer, Bart. “Fed Cattle Pricing: Will Well-Intentioned Proposals Actually Reduce Cattle Prices?“. Southern Ag Today 2(18.4). April 28, 2022. Permalink

Often in agricultural policy we find that well intentioned policies designed to solve a problem often have unintended consequences.  A good example of this is the U.S. ethanol industry.

Since the 1970s the U.S. government has implemented a variety of policies aimed at increasing the use of gasohol that later became known as ethanol.  There were a variety of tax credits offered to blenders in an attempt to increase the use of ethanol in motor fuels.  One of the major boosts to biofuels came in 1996 when California announced it was banning Methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) as an oxygenate in motor fuels by 2003.  This change brought to light the need for a replacement oxygenate that ethanol was touted as being able to fill.  However the most significant boost for the ethanol industry came from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPA of 2005) and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA of 2007) both aiming to increase U.S. energy independence.  The EPA of 2005 mandated increasing levels of biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) that had to be blended into the nation’s fuel supply each year from 4 billion gallons in 2006 up to 7.5 billion gallons by 2012. Overnight this effectively created a demand for biofuels and therefore corn leading to a significant price increase (Figure 1).  The EISA of 2007 increased the mandate each year to 36 billion gallons by 2022 (15 billion gallons of corn ethanol and 21 billion gallons of other renewable fuels).  Corn prices continued an upward trend spiking during the midwest drought of 2012.  

At the same time all of this was happening in the U.S., the rising corn prices were seen not just by producers in the U.S. but by producers around the world.  Spurred on by prices that were now profitable, producers increased their corn production.  This created an unintended consequence of incentivizing corn production and exports by several countries who had previously not been significant competitors – namely Brazil and Ukraine (Figure 2).  Prior to the 1990s, the U.S. was the unrivaled corn exporter in the world with only Argentina with significant corn exports.  Now, Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine (prior to being attacked by Russia) are all major exporters of corn who compete with U.S. producers.

Figure 1.  U.S. Marketing Year Average Corn Price, 1980 to 2021

Source: USDA-NASS.

Figure 2. Corn Exports by Major Exporting Countries, 1980 to 2021

Source: USDA.  Found at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

Outlaw, Joe, and David Anderson. “The U.S. Ethanol Industry and Unintended Consequences.” Southern Ag Today 2(16.4). April 14, 2022. Permalink

It’s around this time of year – with the release of the President’s budget – that we start to get a lot of questions about what’s going to happen with Federal spending for the year.  The questions are quite natural given the amount of attention the release of the President’s budget generates and the enormous volume of pages it fills (i.e. this year the Appendix alone spans 1,400 pages).  It’s somewhat ironic, then, that the Constitution gives no formal role to the President in the federal budget process.  In fact, the Constitution vests the authority to “lay and collect taxes” and to authorize the withdrawal of funds from the Treasury exclusively in the U.S. Congress.

While Congress controls the power of the purse, for the past 100 years – since passage of the Budget and Accounting Act of 1921 – there has been a statutory role for the President in establishing a budget and presenting it to Congress.  For the past 30 years, Federal law has stipulated that the President is to submit the budget to Congress “on or after the first Monday in January but not later than the first Monday in February of each year” (we’ll save the discussion about whether they are submitted on time for another day).

If Congress controls the purse strings, then what’s the point of the President’s budget? 

First, it kicks off the Congressional budget process.  In exercising the power of the purse, Congress establishes a budget resolution, which is a broad revenue/spending framework (which is also the basis for budget enforcement) that also provides spending allocations to the Appropriations Committees.  The budget resolution can also include reconciliation instructions, which featured prominently in last year’s debates on the Build Back Better Act.

Second, the President’s budget is an overview of the President’s policy vision.  Often, that vision includes proposing significant changes to existing Federal programs.  With respect to agriculture, notably, the last two budget cycles broke with recent tradition which had proposed a litany of ways in which farm policy could be slashed to save money.  Last year’s budget was silent on the matter and this year is no different.  With that said, the budget does hint at other significant changes that could have a major impact on agriculture.  For example, the so-called Green Book –the Treasury Department’s explanation of this year’s revenue proposals – contemplates imposing capital gains at death.  The Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) reported last summer on the enormous impact that the elimination of stepped-up basis (or the imposition of transfer taxes) could have on agricultural producers.  While the President can propose changes, only Congress has the power to actually change the law.

Bottom line:  the President’s budget kicks off the budget process and signals the policy priorities of the Administration, but it’s Congress that ultimately controls the purse strings.

Fischer, Bart. “President’s Budget: Does it Matter?“. Southern Ag Today 2(14.4). March 31, 2022. Permalink