Category: Trade

In a recent Southern Ag Today article, Muhammad et al. (2025) explored whether Brazil can compete with the U.S. in Japan’s premium beef market. They found Brazil has the volume but questioned the quality. This article digs deeper, showing how advances in genetics and feeding systems may close the gap.

Two key forces shape beef quality: genetics and nutrition. Historically, Brazil relied on grass-fed Nellore cattle (Bos indicus), which yield leaner, less marbled meat. However, change is underway.

Crossbreeding with British breeds such as Angus is increasing rapidly. Angus semen accounted for 49% of all beef semen sales in 2021 (USDA–FAS, 2021). In 2024, British breeds made up a third of sales, driven by demand for marbling and tenderness (ASBIA, 2024).

Meanwhile, Nellore genetics are also improving. Breeding programs have targeted carcass quality for over two decades. In 2024, more than 14.6 million beef cows, 22.3% of the national beef herd (Figure 1), were artificially inseminated (ASBIA, 2025). Over 420,000 purebred Zebu calves were registered that year, reflecting long-term investments in breeding (ABCZ, 2024).

Nutritional gains have kept pace with advancements in genetics. Brazil rapidly expanded its feedlot systems, especially in the central-west and southeast regions. These enable grain finishing, improving marbling and consistency, key traits for markets like Japan. In 2024, Brazil had over 8 million head in feedlots (Figure 2), representing a 25% increase in five years (DSM-Firmenich, 2024). In 2023, feedlot-finished cattle made up 21.3% of all beef slaughter, underscoring the growing role of confinement (CNA, 2024). Advances in mineral nutrition, feed conversion, and precision feeding have further improved carcass yield and quality.

Brazil is no longer just a volume player. Upgrades in genetics, nutrition, and feedlot systems are reshaping its beef industry. It’s increasingly meeting premium standards. The U.S. still leads, but Brazil is narrowing the gap on quality.

Figure 1: Number and Percentage of Beef-Breeding Cows Inseminated in Brazil 2014-2024 

Figure 2. Cattle on Feedlots in Brazil 2014-2024

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Referneces

ABCZ – Associação Brasileira dos Criadores de Zebu. (2024). Estatísticas do Registro Genealógico – RGN. https://www.abcz.org.br/produtos-e-servicos/area-tecnica/registro-genealogico/estatisticas

ASBIA – Associação Brasileira de Inseminação Artificial. (2024). Index ASBIA 2024 – Beef cattle semen sales by breed. https://asbia.org.br/index-asbia/

ASBIA – Associação Brasileira de Inseminação Artificial. (2025). Anuário ASBIA 2025. https://asbia.org.br/wp-content/uploads/Anuario/ASBIA_anuario_2025.pdf

CNA – Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil. (2024, August 5). Expectativa de retorno do confinamento em 2024 frente ao cenário de custos [Technical report]. https://www.cnabrasil.org.br/publicacoes/expectativa-de-retorno-do-confinamento-em-2024-frente-ao-cenario-de-custos

DSM-Firmenich. (2024). Panorama do Confinamento 2024 [Unpublished report].

Muhammad, A., Martinez, C., & Hossen, M. D. (2025, March 6). Market showdown: U.S. beef faces new challenges in Japan amid Brazilian reentry. Southern Ag Today, 5(10.4). https://southernagtoday.org/2025/03/06/market-showdown-u-s-beef-faces-new-challenges-in-japan-amid-brazilian-reentry/

U.S. Department of Agriculture – Foreign Agricultural Service. (2021). The Brazilian bovine genetics market and U.S. exports [PDF]. https://usdabrazil.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/The-Brazilian-Bovine-Genetics-Market-and-US-Exports_Brasilia_Brazil_03-01-2021-1.pdf

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Moreira, Felipe Martins, and Yuri Calil. “Will Brazil Close the Quality Gap with U.S. Beef in Japan?” Southern Ag Today 5(30.4). July 24, 2025. Permalink

According to the most recent data on U.S. and China reciprocal tariffs, as reported by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Bown, 2023), U.S. tariffs on imports from China currently stand at 51.1%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods are at 32.6%. This is an improvement compared to the tariff levels in late April and early May that exceeded 100%. However, these tariffs have had a significant impact on U.S. agricultural exports to China. China is among the top five export destinations for U.S. agricultural exports (Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea). China experienced the most significant decrease among the top markets, with exports plummeting by 55.0%, from $11.1 billion in 2024 (YTD: January – May) to just $5.0 billion in 2025 (See Table 1). This sharp drop highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes, and shifting global supply chains.

This Monday (July 7, 2025), President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1^st (Fortnam, 2025). This move marks a significant shift in trade policy, targeting two major allies and the 4th and 5th largest destination markets for U.S. agricultural exports. While the tariffs are intended to address bilateral trade deficits and protect U.S. industries, this decision is likely to strain diplomatic relations and could have a significant impact on U.S. agricultural exports similar to what we have experienced with China. Unlike China, U.S. agricultural exports to Japan and South Korea showed positive growth in 2025 YTD. Japan’s imports increased by 6.0%, rising from $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion in 2025. South Korea had the highest growth among the top markets, with a 15.8% increase, from $3.8 billion to $4.4 billion in 2025 (See Table 1). This surge reflects South Korea’s expanding market for U.S. agricultural goods, driven by favorable trade agreements and growing consumer demand. 

U.S. agricultural exports to Japan and South Korea totaled $11.9 billion and $8.5 billion in 2024, respectively. Japan is a major market for U.S. corn ($2.7 billion), beef products ($1.9 billion), pork products ($1.4 billion), and soybeans ($1.0 billion). South Korea is a significant market for U.S. beef products ($2.2 billion), pork products ($0.7 billion), and corn ($0.7 billion) (USDA, 2025). If President Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, U.S. agricultural trade with these countries could face significant challenges. Japan and South Korea are the 3rd and 4th largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports, showing positive growth in recent years. The tariffs could lead to reduced demand for U.S. products, harming American farmers. Additionally, Japan and South Korea might retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. goods, further exacerbating the situation and disrupting established trade relationships.

Table 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports, Total and Top Destinations: 2024 and 2025 (January – May)

Country	2024	Jan – May 2024	Jan – May 2025	% Change
	$ billion
World (total)	$176.4	$74.2	$72.2	-2.6
Mexico	30.2	12.5	12.3	-1.7
Canada	29.5	12.0	11.6	-3.2
China	24.4	11.1	5.0	-55.0
Japan	11.9	5.5	5.8	6.0
South Korea	8.5	3.8	4.4	15.8
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (2025)

For more information:

Bown, C.P. (2025). US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart

Fortnam, B. (2025). “Trump tells Japan, Korea he’s imposing 25 percent tariffs as of Aug. 1.” Inside U.S. Trade (July 7, 2025) https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/trump-tells-japan-korea-he-s-imposing-25-percent-tariffs-aug-1 (subscription required for access).

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2025). Global Agricultural Trade System. Foreign Agricultural Service. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

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Muhammad, Andrew. “U.S. Agriculture Could Face New Challenges with President Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Japan and South Korea.” Southern Ag Today 5(28.4). July 10, 2025. Permalink

Five countries produce 70 percent of the world’s peanuts annually. In the 2024/2025 marketing year, 51.4 million metric tons (MMT) of peanuts were grown, and these five leading countries contributed 35.1 MMT to that total. The United States ranks fourth in global peanut production (2.9 MMT) behind China (19 MMT), India (7.1 MMT), and Nigeria (4.3 MMT).

Production of peanut oil for the five largest markets together accounted for 81 percent of the 6.24 MMT of global production in the 2024 marketing year. Leading global producers, Chinese production has remained relatively stable between 3.1-3.23 MMT since the 2019/2020 marketing year. Indian production has been similar with production between 1.2-1.28 MMT since the 2019 marketing year. The three that follow together accounted for only 694 thousand metric tons (TMT). 

Only 470 TMT of peanut oil production was traded in the 2024 marketing year, or 7.5 percent of peanut oil production. The five largest exporters accounted for 91.8 percent of exports in the most recent marketing year. On the other side of that trade, the three largest importers totaled 93.8 percent of peanut oil imports. China accounted for most of that, with 350 TMT in the most recent marketing year, or 74.4 percent of peanut oil imports. The European Union (55 TMT) and, United States (36 TMT) are the two other largest markets.

In the 2024 marketing year, global demand for peanut oil totaled 6.16 MMT, with 83.7 percent going to the five largest markets. More than half of global demand for peanut oil can be attributed to China. India ranks second, despite being a recurring leader for global exports, with just over one million metric tons. Demand in the United States has remained stable around 123-148 TMT, with the exception of the 2019/2020 marketing year, which was around 111 TMT. Excluding the 2019 marketing year, where only 2 TMT of peanut oil was imported, 10-26 percent of demand for the United States is supplied from imports.

References

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Peanut Oil Custom Query. Production, Supply, Distribution (PSD). Online public database. Accessed June 2025.

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Young, Landyn, and Luis Ribera. “Opportunity for Increased U.S. Peanut Oil Production.” Southern Ag Today 5(26.4). June 26, 2025. Permalink

United States (U.S.) pecan production totaled 120 thousand metric tons (TMT) in 2024. Exports of pecans from the United States in 2024 totaled 53.7 TMT, worth a total of $381 million. In-shell pecans accounted for 32.2 TMT and $169.2 million; the remaining 21.5 TMT and $211.8 million of exports were shelled. In-shell exports to Mexico and China accounted for $94.5 million in 2024, representing 75.8 percent of the total volume of in-shell exports. The export market for shelled pecan exports is less consolidated.

Due to the ease of access to low-cost labor in Mexico, a significant portion of the in-shell pecans exported to Mexico will be shelled and then imported back to the United States, where they will be sold domestically or packaged for export elsewhere. This makes Mexico far and away the largest market for U.S. pecan imports. Mexico accounted for 99.7 and 99.5 percent of in-shell and shelled imports, respectively.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) worked to lower trade barriers and was renewed recently in 2020 as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). One such barrier addressed was tariffs on pecan trade between the United States and Mexico, which were set at zero percent. This does not account for non-tariff barriers to trade. Non-tariff measures (NTM) have a major impact on trade that is difficult to quantify. Since 2004, the NTMs for all WTO countries have nearly quadrupled from 5.3 thousand measures to 19 thousand. The largest NTM category is sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) restrictions.

The pecan weevil quarantine is one such SPS issue that has arisen. Arizona, California, New Mexico (except for Otero County), and six counties near El Paso, Texas, are all that fall outside of the pecan weevil quarantine zone. While the Texas Department of Agriculture also has a quarantine on pecan weevils for many eastern states, once one of the four approved treatment options has been completed, the product is free to travel from a non-quarantine zone. That is not the case with exports to Mexico, which requires non-quarantined pecans to be treated and will not allow any pecans from quarantine areas. 

In February, it was announced that a 25 percent tariff would be placed on both USMCA partner countries; this applies to all products, including agricultural imports. Thus, the tariff rate on imported pecans from Mexico, which is primarily shelled, would increase from zero percent to 25 percent. U.S. pecan imports coming from Mexico account for over 99.5 percent of the total for both shelled and in-shell; thus, other new import tariffs have little impact comparatively. It is very difficult to predict the actual impact of the 25 percent tariff, but somewhere along the supply chain, the extra cost will have to be paid, and oftentimes the lion’s share falls onto the consumer.

References

Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS). Online database. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx. Online public database accessed August 2025. 

USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Phytosanitary Export Database (PExD) with Requirements by Country. https://pcit.aphis.usda.gov/PExD/faces/ViewPExD.jsf  Online public database accessed May 2025.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Quick Stats. https://www.nass.usda.gov accessed May 2025.

World Trade Organization. WTO Stats. https://stats.wto.org/. Online public database. Accessed April 2025.

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Young, Landyn, and Luis Ribera. “U.S. Pecan Trade and Tariff Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(24.4). June 12, 2025. Permalink

Distilled spirits fall into six main categories: whiskey (which includes bourbon), vodka, rum, gin, tequila, and brandy. Each is defined by its key ingredient, for example, rum is produced from sugarcane, brandy from grapes, and whiskey from corn and other grains. Production methods, geography, and legal requirements also help in defining these categories. Tennessee Whiskey and Kentucky Bourbon are iconic American spirits, elevating these states to leading exporter status.

American distilled spirits enjoy global popularity and are among the nation’s top agricultural exports. Despite disruptions from the 2018 trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic, exports have shown a steady upward trend reaching almost $3.0 billion in 2024 (Figure 1). Tennessee and Kentucky lead the nation in distilled spirits exports, consistently ranking first and second among exporting states, respectively. While distilled spirits make up approximately 2% of total agricultural exports nationwide, they dominate sales in both states, accounting for 36% of Tennessee’s and 48% of Kentucky’s agricultural exports in 2024. That year, Tennessee exported over $900 million worth of distilled spirits, while Kentucky shipped around $750 million, together comprising more than half of the country’s total distilled spirits export revenue. For comparison, Texas, the third-largest exporting state, had around $350 million in distilled spirits exports in 2024.

Both Canada and the EU have been embroiled in the recent trade actions by the Trump Administration. In response, both countries have either implemented or proposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. good including distilled spirits. What is at stake if Canada and the EU impose retaliatory tariffs on American distilled spirits?

Because retaliatory tariffs could seriously impact distilled spirits, disrupting export sales, economic activity, and job stability, it is essential to evaluate what is at risk. Our research shows that although export sales to the EU and Canada for the two states combined average around $760 million annually from 2022-2024, the totaled economic impact was over $1.2 billion and nearly 3,000 jobs. These findings highlight how distilled spirits exports create a ripple effect, influencing employment, tax revenue, and business activity across multiple sectors in Tennessee and Kentucky. If Canada or the EU were to impose tariffs on U.S. distilled spirits, it could lead to reduced exports, affecting the economic stability of distilleries and related industries. This could result in job losses, decreased income for workers, and lower tax revenues, ultimately harming the regional economy. 

Figure 1. U.S. Distilled Spirits Exports (Tennessee, Kentucky, and Other States): 2010 – 2024    

For More Information

Muhammad, A., R.J. Menard, S.A. Smith (2025) “Tennessee and Kentucky distilled spirits: What’s at stake from a new trade war?” Choices (In Press).

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Muhammad, Andrew, R. Jamey Menard, and S. Aaron Smith. “Will a New Trade War Impact the Two Leading Distilled Spirits States? What’s at Stake for Tennessee and Kentucky Exports?” Southern Ag Today 5(22.4). May 29, 2025. Permalink