Spring is here and not only are calf and fed cattle prices record high, but cull cow prices have joined the action. Cow prices typically increase from late in the previous year until about May-June. Both supply and demand factors contribute to higher cull cow prices in the Spring. On the supply side, total cow slaughter tends to decline until the middle of the year. On the demand side grilling season is starting and that means more demand for ground beef.
Cull cow prices in the Southern Plains have increased from $121 to $145 per cwt since the first of the year. Auction prices a year ago in those markets averaged $134 per cwt. On the meat side, the cow-beef cutout climbed to $297 per cwt. At the same time, wholesale 90 percent lean boneless beef hit $382 per cwt. Pretty clearly tight supplies and Spring grilling season demands are sending prices higher.
On the supply side, cow slaughter, typically, slowly declines until mid-year. That is about where we are through March, maybe a small downward trend in weekly average slaughter. While the pattern of slaughter is pretty normal, the numbers going to slaughter are sharply lower. Through mid-March, beef and dairy cow slaughter are down 20 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively. The decline amounts to 16,000 fewer total cows going to packers per week than last year.
It’s worth noting that beef cow and dairy cow slaughter exhibit different seasonality throughout the year. Beef cow slaughter tends to decline in Spring, have a mid-year increase, then a peak late in the year. Dairy cow culling peaks early then declines to seasonal lows in mid-year. Production systems across the country largely explain these seasonal peaks and valleys.
While cow slaughter is lower than last year reducing lean beef supplies, imports are adding lean beef trimming supplies. Beef imports in January totaled a monthly record of 608 million pounds. Imports from Brazil were almost a third of total beef imports for the month at 198 million pounds. Brazilian beef imports normally decline after January so total beef imports should decline over the next few months.
There is more room for cow prices to increase further over the next couple of months. Grilling season is just getting started for a lot of the country. Fewer cows going to market will keep prices above a year ago the rest of the year. Higher fed cattle prices should help support cull cow prices.
Anderson, David. “Record Cow Prices! It’s Not April Fools!” Southern Ag Today 5(14.2). April 1, 2025. Permalink
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