Author: David Anderson

It’s that time of year where our attention turns to turkeys.  While the South is not normally thought of as a major turkey producing region, we are major eaters.  But, Arkansas and North Carolina are the second and third largest turkey producing states, respectively, according to NASS, USDA data. 

Weekly turkey production is down about 5.5 percent for the year compared to last year.  But, as Thanksgiving has approached the production gap has closed a little, with production only trailing last year by 2 percent over the last 2 months.  Production, estimated to total 5.7 billion pounds is the smallest since 2015.  Struggling turkey demand over the last few years and higher feed costs over the last year have contributed to falling production.  Per capita consumption at 15.34 pounds in 2021 will be the smallest since 1987.  

Tighter supplies have led to higher prices.  While USDA no longer reports retail turkey prices, the wholesale market provides an indication of prices for the holidays. Wholesale prices for frozen 8-16 pound hens and 16-24 pounds toms are 17 percent higher than those last year.  So, grocery stores will feel the pressure of higher prices and figuring out how much to pass on to their customers.  Turkeys are often used to sell the whole basket of Thanksgiving dinner items.  It appears that retail store featuring is starting to pick up, but price specials are lagging behind last year.  

While stores aren’t likely to run out, it may pay to shop early this year, especially if there is a specific weight, brand, or fresh vs frozen bird you like the best.    

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Anderson, David. “It’s Turkey Time! Gobble Gobble!” Southern Ag Today 1(45.2). November 2, 2021. Permalink

Fall is here and cow prices have begun to decline from their summer seasonal highs.  Cull cow prices in the Southern Plains that hit $64 mid-year have given back about 22 percent of that price as of last week.  Over the last five years, cow prices have declined by about one-third from mid-year to November.

Cow prices normally decline this time of the year because culling picks up across the country.  Beef cow culling normally hits its annual peak in October-November each year.  This year, beef cow slaughter remains well above last year (up 10 percent), likely encouraged by drought in the West.  Dairy cow culling normally peaks in January-February and again late in the year.  Beef and dairy cow sales, increasing at the same time in the Fall, combine to force lower cull prices.

A couple of good questions remain for the Fall.  Did the surge in beef cow culling over the Summer pull ahead cow slaughter so there are fewer to go to market this Fall?  Will high feed costs and struggling milk prices push more dairy cow culling?  A long-used strategy has been to buy cows (or keep some cows) at depressed prices in the Fall to take advantage of seasonal price increases the next Spring.  A smaller beef cow herd will likely support higher cow prices in 2022, but it will be important to consider high feed costs in this strategy.

Anderson, David. “Cow Prices Start Seasonal Slump.” Southern Ag Today 1(42.2). October 12, 2021. Permalink