Author: Landyn Young

The annual growth in U.S. ag exports to Mexico has mostly been positive since the two countries opened their markets. In 2022, the United States exported 38.9 million metric tons (MMT) of agricultural products to Mexico worth $28.5 billion. Since NAFTA took effect in 1994, exports of U.S. ag products to Mexico have grown from 13.4 MMT and $4.67 billion. Over the 29 years of free trade between the two countries, starting with NAFTA and now USMCA, there was an increase in volume of U.S. ag exports for all but ten years. Note the trade value changed very little in the middle and late 2010’s despite volume growing nearly every year. It is assumed that the reason value did not match the growth in volume these years is because of a decrease in per unit export value of multiple major commodity groups. In only eight of the past twenty-nine years, we have not seen a positive change in the value of U.S. ag exports. 

Value has grown substantially during this time, while the volume of trade has grown at a less dramatic rate as seen in Chart 1: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023. Higher increases in commodity prices are responsible for the different rates of growth. USMCA started in 2020 which coincided with a sudden rise in the value of ag exports; however, it is likely that the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation caused the steep growth. 

Texas agricultural exports to Mexico have contributed to the growth in U.S. ag exports to Mexico as seen in Chart 2: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023. During 2022, Texas accounted for 19 percent ($5.55 billion) of total U.S. ag exports to Mexico. The total export value of ag products from Texas to Mexico has increased 13 of the past 20 years. The United States has increased 15 of the past 20 years.

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Young, Landyn. “U.S. has Experienced Consistent Ag Export Growth to Mexico Under NAFTA and USMCA.” Southern Ag Today 3(24.4). June 15, 2023. Permalink

The United States is a world leader in pecan production totaling an estimated 115 thousand metric tons (TMT). Georgia led the country with over 40 TMT of pecans grown, despite production being 26.7 TMT lower than the previous year. New Mexico ranked closely behind growing 35.6 TMT of pecans. Georgia and New Mexico accounted for 65.5 percent of U.S. pecans in 2021. Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma followed those two to round out the top five states for pecans grown.

In addition to being a major grower of pecans, the United States is an exporter of both in-shell and shelled pecans. In-shell exports have been leading shelled exports in terms of volume for years but have decreased each year. The largest decline occurred when China cut imported pecans from the United States from 30 TMT to 10 TMT in 2018 after additional tariffs were levied on U.S. pecans by China. Despite these additional tariffs being removed, imports have not been able to reach the same level as years prior. Mexico is currently the largest importer of U.S. shelled pecans; in 2021 Mexico represented 47.5 percent or 15.6 TMT of in-shell pecans exported from the United States. A large portion of the in-shell nuts exported to Mexico are shelled and then exported back to the United States to be packaged where they will be consumed domestically or exported one more time. Shelled pecan exports from the United States have been on the rise in recent years growing by 10 TMT since 2017. The largest importing countries for U.S. shelled pecans are Canada, the EU(primarily the Netherlands or Germany), and Mexico. These four countries account for 60.3 percent of all shelled pecans exported from the United States, or 19.3 TMT.

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Author: Landyn Young

Program Coordinator

Landyn.young@ag.tamu.edu

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Young, Landyn. “U.S. Pecan Trade“. Southern Ag Today 2(45.4). November 3, 2022. Permalink

Photo by Sara Cervera on Unsplash