Author: Luis Ribera

Historically, U.S. agricultural trade has experienced a trade surplus, where exports are higher than imports (Figure 1.). In fact, since 1989 which is as far back as USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) has available data on agricultural trade, there were only two years with agricultural trade deficit, imports higher than exports, 2019 and 2022.  USDA FAS expects that 2023 not only will show a trade deficit, but that the trade deficit will be increasing over time.  The trade deficit was $3.5 billion in 2022 and it is expected to be $16.7 billion and $30.5 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively (official 2023 numbers will be reported in February 2024).  

However, when U.S. agricultural trade is presented in volume as opposed to value, the story is very different (Figure 2).  The U.S. has never experienced a trade deficit and is very far from experiencing one where exports to imports ratio has been 3.2 over the last 10 years.  The main difference between value and volume in agricultural trade is the agricultural products that the U.S exports and imports.  The main U.S. agricultural products exported are soybeans, corn and wheat and they are sold for the most part in bulk.  On the other hand, the main agricultural products imported by the U.S. are more high value consumer-oriented products, mainly distilled spirits, wine & wine products, and beer, as well as high value fresh produce such as fresh fruits and vegetables.  These imported products are of much higher in value than the exported products and vice versa when volume is used as a measuring unit.

Figure 1.  U.S. Agricultural Trade, Billion Dollars

Figure 2. U.S. Agricultural Trade, Million Metric Tons

Since the beginning of the 21^st century, the United States has experienced an agricultural trade surplus in 20 of the last 22 years, with 2019 and 2022 being the only years where imports surpassed exports.  U.S. agricultural imports have increased from $43.1 to $199.3 billion from 2001 to 2022, respectively. This increase of U.S. agricultural imports was accentuated during the Covid-19 pandemic years as total imports increased by 40 percent in value and 13.1 percent in volume between 2019 and 2022 (Tables 1 and 2).  The rather large difference between value and volume increases shows that there was a price increase in most of the commodities mainly due to supply chain issues and inflation during COVID-19. The largest increase in value of the top five US agricultural imports from 2019 to 2022 are oilseeds and products, grain and feeds, and livestock and meats with 105.5, 54.5, and 44.6 percent increases, respectively.  Moreover, in terms of volume, livestock and meats, other and horticultural products have the largest increase with 35.5, 21.9 and 14.1 percent respectively.

Figure 1.  Value of U.S. Agricultural Imports, Billion Dollars

Table 1. Value of U.S. Agricultural Imports, Thousand Dollars

Table 2. Volume of U.S. Agricultural Imports, Metric Tons

The latest USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report (August 2023) forecasted imports for 2023 at $196.5 billion, down $1.5 billion from the May forecast mainly due to easing import prices throughout FY 2023.  The year-over-year imports from January to July show an overall decrease of 1.4 percent in value, but a 4.4 percent increase in volume confirming that prices of importing commodities are easing (Tables 1 and 2).  The value of the top five U.S. agricultural imports year-over-year has gone down except for grains and feeds.  On the other hand, the volume of all U.S. agricultural imports has gone up except for sugar and tropical products. Moreover, forecasted imports for 2024 are expected to be $199.5 billion, $3 billion above 2023, and virtually the same as 2022 imports.

ReferencesU.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).  “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2023.”  AES-125, August 31, 2023. https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/107311/aes-125.pdf?v=1152.5

Ribera, Luis. “U.S. Agricultural Imports are Expected to Surpass Exports Post Covid and Beyond.” Southern Ag Today 3(40.4). October 5, 2023. Permalink

Trade is very important to production agriculture in the United States. Over the last 12 years, 2011 to 2022, agricultural exports have accounted for over one-third of US gross farm income, 33.9 percent (USDA ERS and FAS).  US agricultural exports have experienced a 7-year expansion run from 2015 to 2022, going from $137.2 billion to $195.9 billion. This increase of US agricultural exports was accentuated during the Covid-19 pandemic years as total exports increased by 38.8 percent in value and 8.1 percent in volume between 2019 and 2022 (Tables 1 and 2).  The rather large difference between value and volume increases shows that there was a price increase in most of the commodities which can be attributed partially to an increase in quantity demanded of US agricultural products, but also to inflation experienced worldwide as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. The largest increase in value of the top five US agricultural exports from 2019 to 2022 are oilseeds and products, grain and feeds, and dairy and products with 65.2, 64.5, and 61.4 percent increases, respectively.  Moreover, in terms of volume, grains and feeds, poultry and products, and oilseeds and products have the largest increase with 12.7, 6.6, and 4.6 percent respectively.

Figure 1.  Value of US Agricultural Exports, Billion Dollars

Table 1. Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Thousand Dollars

Table 2. Volume of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Metric Tons

The latest USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report (August 2023) forecasted exports for 2023 at $177.5 billion, down $3.5 billion from the May forecast largely due to decreases in corn, wheat and tree nuts exports.  The year-over-year exports from January to July show an overall decrease of 11.5 percent in value and 17.7 percent decrease in volume (Tables 1 and 2).  In both, value and volume, the largest decreases are in grains and feeds with 22.6 and 27.5 percent, respectively.  The main reason for this decline is competition from Brazil, EU, and Russia.   Moreover, forecasted exports for 2024 are expected to be $172 billion, $5.5 billion below 2023, and $23.9 billion below 2022 exports.

References

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).  “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2023.”  AES-125, August 31, 2023. https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/107311/aes-125.pdf?v=1152.5

Mexico is the largest agricultural trading partner for the United States totaling $71.9 billion (imports plus exports) in 2022.  U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico totaled $28.5 billion while imports from Mexico totaled $43.4 billion.  The main agricultural products imported from Mexico are fruits and vegetables, in fact 44 percent of the fruits and 48 percent of the vegetables imported by the U.S. are from Mexico. The United States imported $18.7 billion of produce from Mexico during 2022, including fresh, frozen, and processed fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Just over 98 percent of these imports entered the United States by land ports between Mexico and Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. When considering only fresh fruits and vegetables, which is nearly 89 percent of total produce, imports totaled $16.6 billion. These imports were shipped in 590,906 forty-thousand-pound truckloads. About 55 percent of U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico entered through Texas land ports, arriving in 325,467 truckloads and worth $11.6 billion. The most active single port for fresh produce import from Mexico in 2021 was Pharr, Texas with 197,253 truckloads followed by Nogales, Arizona with 144,027 truckloads. Laredo, Texas (75,409 truckloads) and Otay Mesa, California (73,580 truckloads) rounded out the top four. Although there was a small drop of the number of fresh produce trucks crossing from Mexico in 2022, the expectation is that the positive trend seen over the last decade will continue as U.S. consumers continue to demand year-round supply of fresh produce.

Figure 1. U.S. Imports of Fresh Produce from Mexico by Truck, 2012-2022

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Photo by PhotoMIX Company: https://www.pexels.com/photo/vegetables-stall-868110/

Ribera, Luis. “Fresh Produce Imports from Mexico Continue on the Rise.” Southern Ag Today 3(8.4). February 23, 2023. Permalink

The U.S. has been the top corn exporter for a long time averaging around 45 percent of the world corn exports since 2000 with a high of 67 percent in 2005 (Figure 1).  The one exception since the turn of the century was in 2012; the most severe drought since the 1950s reduced corn production by over 13 percent in the largest producing states.  On the other hand, Brazil has increased its corn exports rapidly through the years securing the number two spot.  Brazil’s participation in the corn export market is quite remarkable. In 2000, corn exports from Brazil accounted for only 8.2 percent of the world total and reached its lowest volume of exports in 2004 with less than one percent. Brazil bounced back after claiming the top spot in 2012 and challenged the United States.  Currently, Brazil exports reached 47 million metric tons compared to 48.9 million metric tons for the United States, accounting for 26.4 and 27.4 percent of total world corn exports, respectively. 

The top world corn importers are EU, China, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea accounting for 47.2 percent (Figure 2).  Similar to Brazil in the exporting market, China’s rise as a major corn importer is remarkable.  China had nearly zero corn imports from 2000 to 2008, then gradually increased its share reaching around five percent in 2011, 2014, and 2019, and finally exploding as a top market for corn in 2020 and 2021.  Currently, China occupies the number two spot between the EU and Mexico.  U.S. corn exports to China earlier this month were around 70 percent shorter than at the same point in the previous two years.  On the other hand, Brazil corn shipments to China last month reached over one million metric tons and is on track to repeat the same amount this month.  Although Brazil exports to China seem to be coming at the expense of the United States, China’s continued purchases are a good sign for the world corn market.

Figure 1. Major World Exporters of Corn, MY 2012/13 – MY 2022/23

Figure 2. Major World Importers of Corn, MY 2012/13 – MY 2022/23

Author: Luis A. Ribera

Professor and Director

Center for North American Studies

Texas A&M University

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Ribera, Luis. “Brazil Challenging U.S. Corn Export Top Spot.” Southern Ag Today 3(4.4). January 26, 2023. Permalink