Category: Trade

The 2022 data on U.S. agricultural exports are now available and it looks like another record year. U.S. agricultural exports were $196 billion in 2022, up $20 billion (up 11%) when compared to the previous year. Note that 2021 was also a record year for U.S. agricultural exports ($177 billion). It appears that record sales were more so due to higher commodity prices and global inflation than an increase in real export sales. That is, the U.S. did not necessarily sell more soybeans, grains, meats, or other products to the world, we simply sold the same or even lower volumes at higher prices.

Figure 1 shows both the agricultural export value ($ billion) and volume (million metric tons [MT]), as well as the average export price or unit value ($/MT) for the U.S. Given the broad range of exported products, a total volume measure is clearly a representative equivalent. However, as long as the U.S. Department of Agriculture is consistent every year with how volumes are measured, comparisons over time can reveal what is driving recent export growth. In 2021, U.S. agricultural exports increased from $150 to $177 billion, which was an 18% increase. However, the export volume during this period increased by only 2%: 226 million MT in 2020 to 230 million MT in 2021. Given the larger increase in value, clearly, the record in 2021 was more so due to prices. However, albeit relatively smaller, the volume did increase. In 2022, however, the volume of U.S. agricultural exports (216 million MT) was down by 6%, despite the value being up by 11% to a record level. Note that the average export price or per-unit export value in 2022 ($906/MT) was up 18% when compared to the previous year ($768/MT). Thus, the most recent record is all due to higher prices.

In closing, record export sales in the last two years being more inflationary than representative of real export growth is not necessarily a bad thing and is in fact, quite laudable. Most important, higher values do suggest higher revenues for U.S. producers regardless of the quantities being sold. When taking a longer view, there is another positive takeaway. Note that export volumes significantly decreased with rising prices in past years (e.g., 2010 – 2013), resulting in negligible increases in export values. Whereas in the last two years, export volumes have remained relatively stable despite significantly higher prices.

Figure 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports (Volume, Value, and Unit Value): 2010-2022

References

US. Department of Agriculture. 2023. Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS). Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, DC.

---

Muhammad, Andrew. “U.S. Agricultural Exports Set Another Record in 2022, but Higher Prices Appear to be the Cause.” Southern Ag Today 3(6.4). February 9, 2023. Permalink

The U.S. has been the top corn exporter for a long time averaging around 45 percent of the world corn exports since 2000 with a high of 67 percent in 2005 (Figure 1).  The one exception since the turn of the century was in 2012; the most severe drought since the 1950s reduced corn production by over 13 percent in the largest producing states.  On the other hand, Brazil has increased its corn exports rapidly through the years securing the number two spot.  Brazil’s participation in the corn export market is quite remarkable. In 2000, corn exports from Brazil accounted for only 8.2 percent of the world total and reached its lowest volume of exports in 2004 with less than one percent. Brazil bounced back after claiming the top spot in 2012 and challenged the United States.  Currently, Brazil exports reached 47 million metric tons compared to 48.9 million metric tons for the United States, accounting for 26.4 and 27.4 percent of total world corn exports, respectively. 

The top world corn importers are EU, China, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea accounting for 47.2 percent (Figure 2).  Similar to Brazil in the exporting market, China’s rise as a major corn importer is remarkable.  China had nearly zero corn imports from 2000 to 2008, then gradually increased its share reaching around five percent in 2011, 2014, and 2019, and finally exploding as a top market for corn in 2020 and 2021.  Currently, China occupies the number two spot between the EU and Mexico.  U.S. corn exports to China earlier this month were around 70 percent shorter than at the same point in the previous two years.  On the other hand, Brazil corn shipments to China last month reached over one million metric tons and is on track to repeat the same amount this month.  Although Brazil exports to China seem to be coming at the expense of the United States, China’s continued purchases are a good sign for the world corn market.

Figure 1. Major World Exporters of Corn, MY 2012/13 – MY 2022/23

Figure 2. Major World Importers of Corn, MY 2012/13 – MY 2022/23

Author: Luis A. Ribera

Professor and Director

Center for North American Studies

Texas A&M University

---

Ribera, Luis. “Brazil Challenging U.S. Corn Export Top Spot.” Southern Ag Today 3(4.4). January 26, 2023. Permalink

In a previous article, I highlighted that China’s demand for beef is breaking records and imports have increased to unprecedented levels in recent years. Since 2010, Chinese beef imports increased from about $100 million to nearly $16.6 billion by 2022 (nearly a 16,000% increase), making China the world’s largest beef importing country (Trade Data Monitor®, 2023; UN Comtrade, 2022). In years past, beef was not a major protein source in China, but economic growth and exposure to western diets has increased beef awareness. Due to several factors (higher incomes, health awareness, protein shortages due to African swine fever), Chinese consumers have diversified their diets away from pork, the traditional animal protein. Beef demand is outstripping supply in China, resulting in rising imports. As mentioned in the previous article, U.S. beef exports to China have significantly increased as a result. But how does the U.S. compare to other beef exporting countries in the Chinese market?

Figure 1 shows the value (in billions) of China’s beef imports by major exporting source: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Uruguay, United States, and Rest of World. Rest of World is an aggregation of all other countries. Note that Chinese imports of U.S. beef products in 2022 were $1.7 billion, making China a leading destination market for the U.S. From the Chinese perspective, however, this was about 10% of China’s total imports, making the U.S. China’s 4^th leading supplier ahead of Australia ($1.5 billion, 9%) and New Zealand ($1.4 billion, 8%). The figure shows that South American countries are more dominant in the Chinese market (Argentina – $2.5 billion, 15%; Uruguay – $1.8 billion, 11%). This is especially true for Brazil. In 2022, China imported nearly $7.0 billion of beef products from Brazil. No other country comes close (40% of China’s beef imports). What’s interesting is that both Brazilian and U.S. beef were banned in China due to animal disease issues (e.g., FMD, BSE). While the U.S. recovery since 2017 has been noteworthy, Brazil’s recovery since 2014 has been quite extraordinary.

Figure 1. Chinese beef and beef product imports by exporting source: 2010-2022

References

UN Comtrade (2022). UN Comtrade Database. https://comtrade.un.org/

Trade Data Monitor (2023). https://www.tradedatamonitor.com/

Muhammad, Andrew. China Emerges as a Leading Destination for U.S. Beef Exports. Southern Ag Today 2(49.4). December 1, 2022. https://southernagtoday.org/2022/12/china-emerges-as-a-leading-destination-for-u-s-beef-exports/

Author: Andrew Muhammad

Professor and Blasingame Chair of Excellence

The University of Tennessee

---

Muhammad, Andrew. “China’s imports of U.S. beef continue to increase. But how does the U.S. compare to other competing countries?” Southern Ag Today 3(2.4). January 12, 2023. Permalink

According to the USDA, U.S. agricultural exports are projected to decline by $2.5 billion from $196 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 (forecasted) to 193.5 billion in FY 2023. At the same time, agricultural imports are projected to expand by $5 billion from $192 billion in FY 2022 (forecasted) to $197 billion in FY 2023. The result is an agricultural trade deficit of $3.5 billion—the second largest deficit since 1990.

The primary macroeconomic factors driving these trade relationships are the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies, like the Euro and the Yen, and the sluggish economic performance in many parts of the world. In the short-term, poor economic growth will likely be exacerbated as central banks around the world tighten monetary policy to fight rising inflation rates. Moreover, while global supply chain crises have gradually faded this year, freight and shipping costs remain heightened as a result of hefty energy prices driven by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Alongside these macroeconomic factors, the drop in U.S. agricultural exports is also the result of tight domestic supplies of cotton, beef, and sorghum. The largest trade losses are expected to be with major trading partners, including the European Union (EU), South Korea, and Egypt, each of whom is expected to lose approximately $300 million in trade. The projected increase in agricultural imports is primarily driven by grain and feed imports (up by $0.9 billion), as well as increased imports of horticultural products (up by $2.9 billion) and sugar and tropical products (up by $1.8 billion).  

---

Schaefer, K. Aleks, and Luis Ribera. “U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit Projected for 2023.” Southern Ag Today 2(53.4). December 29, 2022. Permalink

The United States and Brazil are the leading beef exporters (Figure 1). However, they focus on different markets. Figure 2 illustrates the world trade flow value in 2020. Accordingly, China is the leading destination for Brazilian beef ($4.1bn), while Japan is the primary consumer of American meat ($2bn). Nevertheless, the U.S. has a more diversified client portfolio, with relevant exports to Japan (27%^[1]), Korea (24%), Mexico (10%), Hong Kong (8.5%), and Canada (7.5%). As for Brazil, most exports are destined for China (50%), Hong Kong (14%), and Egypt (8.7%). 

Figure 1 – 2020 Beef Trade: Top, Growing, and Declining Exporters (Value) 

The two countries compete in the Hong Kong market more directly, which imported 42% (309k tons) of its beef from Brazil and 11% (81.3k tons) from the U.S. in 2020. However, when we compare the values of meat imports from Hong Kong, Brazil’s share drops to 39% ($1.1bn), and the U.S. rises to 22% ($635m). Boneless beef cuts (frozen) show America’s superior ability to market its product. Worldwide, American frozen beef had an average premium of 24% over Brazilian meat in 2020. In the case of Hong Kong, that year, Brazil exported 182k tons ($771m) and the U.S. 56.9k tons ($462m) of frozen beef, a 92% premium for the American product. Furthermore, the 2020 Phase One Trade Agreement opened the Chinese market to the U.S., bringing competition from the two largest exporters to the most prominent and growing consumer market.

Figure 2 – 2020 World Beef Trade (Value) 

Unlike Brazil, the U.S. is a significant beef importer (Figure 3), mainly from Canada ($1.8bn), Australia ($1.5bn), and Mexico ($1.5bn). Australia competes for the Korean and Japanese markets with the U.S. and the Chinese markets with Brazil. Beef trade between the U.S. and Brazil is timid, as the U.S. exported $33m to Brazil and imported $154m from the country between 2015 and 2020 (CHRTD, 2022).

Figure 3 – 2020 Beef Trade: Top, Growing, and Declining Importers (Value) 

---

^[1] The percentages correspond to the total value exported in 2020.

Reference

CHRTD – Chatham House Resource Trade Earth. Trade Data. 2022. Available online: https://resourcetrade.earth/

---

Author: Yuri Clements Daglia Calil 

Assistant Professor and Extension Specialist

Texas A&M University

yuri.calil@ag.tamu.edu

---

Clemets Daglia Calil, Yuri . “The U.S. and Brazil in International Beef Markets.” Southern Ag Today 2(51.4). December 15, 2022. Permalink