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  • What Do Producers Want/Need in a Safety Net?

    What Do Producers Want/Need in a Safety Net?

    During Extension and commodity group meetings this winter, we have been asked over and over what will be in the next farm bill.  After answering with “it depends” – based on money and interest in bi-partisanship on Capitol Hill – we then go on to give our thoughts on what we think will be in the next farm bill.  At that point, the audience is generally happy…and ready to see if they won a door prize…until we ask them the question: what is it that you want or need in the next farm bill?

    The expressions on the audiences’ faces generally remind us of the pained looks on the faces of the kids in the Scripts National Spelling Bee competition.  Google it…it’s intense.  After some reflection, below is a summary of what we tend to hear.

    There is just so much more risk in farming now than there has been in the past.  Producers need as much help defraying as much of the risk as they can get.  Title I programs like ARC and PLC have not helped much at all during the current run up in most input costs.  Neither are triggering since market prices are too high to generate payments (despite the fact that those market prices are still not high enough to cover costs in some cases).  Overall, there is a lot of interest in raising the reference prices that are used in both the ARC and PLC payment calculations.

    On the other hand, producers almost universally acknowledge that crop insurance has provided significant protection as the revenue guarantees have risen along with market prices (since they are based on futures prices for most covered commodities).  Additionally, there are a wide variety of products for producers to choose from to tailor their coverage to their operations such as different coverage types (yield or revenue) across different units (basic, optional or enterprise).  Producers can also purchase supplemental, area-wide coverage such as the Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX), the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO), or the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO).   Some producers will say that the cost of the supplemental policies (and the complicated array of choices) makes them less attractive options.  At the same time, producers are not looking forward to sustained price declines (that everyone knows are coming eventually) that will lower price guarantees and reduce the effectiveness of insurance as a safety net – especially if production costs have not declined. 

    A few producers will say that the safety net needs to be bankable – a term that generally refers to lenders allowing prospective safety net payments to be added to loan packages which would aid in showing their operating loan request is viable.  While the ad hoc assistance over the last several years has been vital – particularly against the backdrop of Title 1 providing less support – that assistance arrives long after the disaster has come and gone.  If and when the markets begin to fall, bankability of the safety net will be even more important. 

    Overall, producers are quick to point out how much they appreciate the safety net support they receive; however, some are looking for Congress to be innovative in providing programs that are bankable and more aligned with the amount of risk exposure modern farms have today.


    Outlaw, Joe and Bart Fischer. “What Do Producers Want/Need in a Safety Net?Southern Ag Today 3(5.4). February 2, 2023. Permalink

  • Bankruptcy as an Option to Relieve Financial Distress

    Bankruptcy as an Option to Relieve Financial Distress

    Bankruptcy is a legal process that allows those (a person or a business) that cannot currently pay back their debts or are struggling to pay back current debts to develop a plan that relieves the financial burden of those debts.  The person or business unable to pay back debts is known as a debtor.  This process allows the debtor to work out a process to repay outstanding debts to creditors and will eventually let the debtor make a fresh start.  Although it provides a fresh start, the bankruptcy filing may stay on the debtor’s credit report for several years and may limit the ability to borrow money.

                Bankruptcy falls under federal law, and types of bankruptcies are often referred to by their chapters in the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.  The main types of bankruptcy would be Chapter 7, Chapter 11, Chapter 13, and Chapter 12.  Chapter 7 is the most common form of bankruptcy and allows a debtor to liquidate all assets but those exempt from bankruptcy to pay off creditors.  Chapter 13 is another form of bankruptcy used by debtors with reliable income sources and some exempt assets.  Chapter 13 allows the debtor to reorganize, keep assets, and dedicate a portion of their income (usually 3 to 5 years) to pay off debts.  Chapter 11 is available to all U.S. businesses, allowing a debtor to remain in control of the business as a debtor in possession and reorganize the business to pay back debts.  Chapter 12 is a bankruptcy provision for qualifying family farming and fishing operations.  

    Chapter 12 is designed to allow agricultural operations to reorganize in ways that the other Chapters do not allow.  Current qualifications include:

    • Being engaged in a farming operation or commercial fishing operation.
    • Having total debt less than $11,097,350 for a family farm or $2,268,550 for a family fishing operation.
    • Total farm related debts of at least 50% or fishing related debts of at least 80% of all filer debt.
    • More than 50% of the filer’s gross income originates from the farm or fishing operation.

    Future posts will explore how Chapter 12 enables agricultural operations to reorganize and continue operating.


    This work is supported by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) program, grant no. 2022-67023-36112/project accession no. 1028056, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

    Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy.

    Author: Paul Goeringer

    Senior Faculty Specialist, University of Maryland

    Author: William Secor

    Assistant Professor, University of Georgia

    Author: Adam Rabinowitz

    Assistant Professor & Extension Specialist, Auburn University


    Goeringer, Paul, William Secor, and Adam Rabinowitz. “Bankruptcy as an Option to Relieve Financial Distress.Southern Ag Today 3(5.3). February 1, 2023. Permalink

  • Record Egg Prices Driven by Supply Disruptions

    Record Egg Prices Driven by Supply Disruptions

    Prices at the grocery store are higher for nearly everything, but one staple food item, in particular, is likely a key driver of recent sticker shock for consumers. Egg prices during the holiday season were up more than double over the same period in 2021. Retail egg prices averaged $4.25 per dozen in December 2022, a record high. This compares to $1.79 per dozen in December 2021.

    The main culprit of the higher prices is a supply disruption at a time when consumers have a strong demand for eggs. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), often called the bird flu, is an important concern each year, but was especially problematic in the U.S. during 2022. USDA reports that HPAI was detected in 307 commercial flocks in 2022. HPAI is very contagious between birds, so strict containment protocols including depopulation of infected flocks are used to prevent additional spread to other flocks. 

    USDA estimates that approximately 57 million birds in the U.S. were affected by HPAI in 2022. Of this total, nearly 40 million were egg laying hens lost to HPAI between February and December 2022. There were 320 to 335 million hens laying eggs each month in 2021 but that total has been in the 299 to 310 million hen range between April to October 2022. Fewer laying hens has led to fewer eggs produced and tighter supplies for eggs consumers.  Egg production has trended down over the last couple of years due to high feed costs, rising other production costs, and the turmoil of the pandemic on profits.

    On the demand side, the holiday season is peak season for egg consumption. According to the first weekly USDA “Egg Markets Overview” of 2023, an estimated 11.4 eggs during the Thanksgiving holiday and 8.6 eggs during Christmas were used per household. The Christmas estimate is 1.6 eggs higher than Christmas 2021. Even at high prices, U.S. consumers still purchased a lot of eggs over the holidays. Strong demand at a time when supplies are tighter drove egg prices higher.  

    The good news is that egg prices are expected to moderate in the months ahead. Consumer demand for eggs will not be at holiday levels, except for Easter egg hunts, and egg producers will continue to try to recover from the supply disruptions. HPAI concerns will continue into 2023 and future impacts could affect supplies this year, too. But current USDA forecasts are for 2023 egg prices to fall back to more normal levels as the supply and demand balance improves.    

    Mississippi state university logo

    Author: Josh Maples

    Assistant Professor, Livestock, Production Economics, Commodity Marketing

    Mississippi State University


    Maples, Josh. “Record Egg Prices Driven by Supply Disruptions.” Southern Ag Today 3(5.2). January 31, 2023. Permalink

    Image credit to Julia Filrovska

  • Traditional Stock-to-Use Ratios are of Little Value in Determining Peanut Prices

    Traditional Stock-to-Use Ratios are of Little Value in Determining Peanut Prices

    A common approach adopted by analysts and researchers is to investigate the relationship between the marketing year average price and the stocks-to-use ratio.  The stocks-to-use ratio (S/U) is often cited as an easy representation of the relationship between supply and demand.  When the S/U ratios are low, the supply of the commodity is low relative to the demand.  This is typically an indicator of high prices.  When the S/U ratios are high, the supply of the commodity is high relative to the demand.  Prices in these cases would be expected to be much lower.

    The marketing year average price, as determined by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), is the weighted average of monthly prices of commodities surveyed during the marketing year, whereas the S/U ratio is computed as the ratio of ending stocks to total demand during the marketing year. The marketing year varies for different commodities. Corn and soybeans have marketing years from September 1 to August 31.  Peanuts has a marketing year of August 1 to July 31. 

    We look at the relationship between S/U ratios and prices for corn and soybeans in figures 1 and 2.  During the period of 2003-2021, we clearly observe the expected downward sloping relationship for corn and soybeans.  As the supply increases, relative to the demand, the price of the commodity is lower.  Figure 3 shows the relationship between S/U ratios and the price of peanuts, or more precisely the lack of any relationship between these two indicators.  In other words, there is no relationship between current peanut prices and current measures of supply and demand.

    The negative relationship in the corn and soybean market can be attributed to the size of the crop, significant number of spot market transactions and the existence of a futures market, with the latter two contributing to price discovery in the market.  However, the similarity between corn and soybeans and that of peanuts is that all are grown in the south – yet that is where it ends. The peanut crop is small relative to these larger commodities, with sales largely done through contracts between the growers and a concentrated sheller market. The absence of a futures market is also a factor that limits price discovery and transparency which could account for the lack of responsiveness in prices to current market conditions. So, while S/U ratios are helpful in explaining prices of many commodities, the same is not true for the peanut sector.

    Figure 1. Corn Marketing Year Average Price and Stocks-to-Use Ratios from 2003-2021

    Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) and USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (USDA WASDE) 

    Figure 2. Soybean Marketing Year Average Price and Stocks-to-Use Ratios from 2003-2021

    Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) and USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (USDA WASDE) 

    Figure 3. Peanut Marketing Year Average Price and Stocks-to-Use Ratios from 2003-2021

    Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) and Oil Crops Yearbook (USDA ERS)

    Attah, Festus, and Adam Rabinowitz. “Traditional Stocks-to-Use Ratios are of Little Value in Determining Peanut Prices.Southern Ag Today 3(5.1). January 30, 2023. Permalink

  • Cooperative Farm Stores and Challenge of Member Loyalty

    Cooperative Farm Stores and Challenge of Member Loyalty

    Recently at the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council’s Farm Store Summit, cooperative farm store managers held a roundtable discussion on the challenges they face. While issues such as the lack of skilled labor and loss of farmland were discussed, participants described a worrisome cycle regarding the farm store’s value proposition.

    The cycle can be described something like this:

    1. Cooperatives sometimes struggle with a fear or inability to invest in activities that will broaden their value proposition
    2. As a result, they engage in more price-focused competition
    3. The cooperative struggles with a fear or inability to maintain or increase price margins
    4. The co-op becomes less profitable, which in turn causes an inability to invest in value-adding activities (back to step 1). 

    When a cooperative farm store is experiencing cost inflation and is not willing to pass some or all of the increase on to member-owners by maintaining price margins, they experience a financial strain that can result in a reduced power to invest in the co-op. This means less labor that can be hired, or less customer service training for existing employees. Well-trained labor is an investment that can generate greater sales, and not a simple expense to be written off by managers or boards. Finally, boards must adopt the expectation that the cooperative farm store should make a profit. Developing a value proposition focused on service is essential for success. 

    The cooperative’s ability to maintain member loyalty is ultimately tied to its value proposition. If the only value that members can see in cooperative ownership is rooted in price, their loyalty will lie with the best price, whether it be at the co-op or a competitor. Developing member value that is based on customer service, convenience, or other customer-centric factors will allow for a healthy, long-term business relationship with patrons.

    Author: Conner Neumann

    Graduate Assistant- Agricultural Economics – Texas A&M University

    Author: John Park

    Roy B. Davis Professor of Agricultural Cooperation and Extension Specialist


    Neumann, Conner, and John Park. “Cooperative Farm Stores and the Challenge of Member Loyalty.Southern Ag Today 3(4.5). January 27, 2023. Permalink

    Top photo Credit to Wendy Wei