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Every January, there is talk of New Year’s resolutions—a time to commit to improvements and set new goals. While health and personal finance often top the list of resolutions, there is no reason not to think about the farm business and marketing commitments in the same way. Farm profitability depends on effective management across many areas. Producers devote significant time and effort to decisions that affect crop production, but just as important is having a marketing plan for how the crop will be sold. Marketing is a continuous process that can span multiple production years, but it should be revisited for possible updating. With a solid marketing plan, producers can approach selling their crop as a year-round process rather than a single decision at one point in the year. This article highlights key considerations for developing a successful marketing strategy. 

First, it is important to understand what a marketing plan is not. It is not a one-time silver bullet that guarantees sales at the highest price. While some producers may ‘beat’ the market in certain years, few can do so consistently. Commodity prices reflect supply and demand fundamentals, but in the short run, they are influenced by unpredictable events and new information. Even long-term outlooks are subject to shocks such as trade wars or other geopolitical developments. Expecting a marketing plan to always capture the top of the market sets up unrealistic goals. Instead, the value of a marketing plan lies in its ability to manage risk through consistent, disciplined decisions.

Every marketing plan should be anchored in the farm’s business goals. Those goals set the operation’s risk tolerance, cash-flow needs, and planning horizon. A producer nearing retirement may prioritize capital preservation, while a younger producer focused on growth may accept more price variability to preserve upside and liquidity. The plan should explicitly tie tactics to goals and assess which risks (price, basis, yield, liquidity, etc.) would most threaten those goals. In short, the marketing plan should serve the business plan, not the other way around.

Cost of production is the foundation of any marketing plan. Without a current, credible breakeven, you can’t judge whether a sale protects margin. Prices are volatile and mostly outside the producer’s control, so the most reliable gains come from managing inputs and operating efficiently. A sound approach is to build price objectives directly from breakeven, setting a minimum price that locks in a base margin.  Additional targets can then be layered at predefined margin levels (for example, breakeven + $0.20 and + $0.40) based on the farm’s goals and cash-flow needs. 

Marketing plans are most effective when they encourage proactive, rather than reactive, sales. Often, the worst sale is a forced sale, such as selling grain at harvest due to limited storage or pulling grain from the bin to meet a loan payment. Coordinating decision dates with price targets allows sales to be spread throughout the year. Crop markets frequently show seasonal strength in spring and early summer, making that window a natural fit for higher targets. Extending the marketing window, considering preharvest sales within the operation’s risk tolerance, and using crop insurance to backstop commitments can all help create more opportunities to lock in margin. Maintaining strong relationships with local buyers can also expand contract options and delivery flexibility.

Finally, it is essential to document the reasoning behind every marketing decision. A simple decision log noting the trigger, target price, quantity, tool, and rationale can reinforce discipline when action is required. The biggest threats to good marketing decisions are emotion, fear of making a mistake, and the temptation to hold out for just a little more. If a sale aligns with business goals and protects margin above breakeven, it is a sound decision, even if prices later move higher. Long-term success comes from steady, margin-protecting progress, not perfection on every sale. Now is an excellent time to make a New Year’s resolution for the farm by committing to a clear, disciplined marketing strategy for 2026 and beyond.

Maples, Will. “A New Year, A Better Marketing Plan for the Farm.” Southern Ag Today 6(2.3). January 7, 2026. Permalink

From October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025, the U.S. federal government was largely shut down until a congressional stalemate was resolved involving appropriations legislation. The 43-day duration of this shutdown was unprecedented, but some of its effects are taking even longer to resolve.

The agricultural marketing implications of the federal shutdown included the suspension of important public agricultural data, especially near term (i.e., weekly) data.  Such data are important for characterizing near term influences on cotton prices.  For example, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) publishes a weekly export sales report for cotton (and other row crops) which serves as a useful indicator of export demand.  As displayed in Figure 1, cotton weekly export sales in relation to nearby ICE cotton futures are helpful in explaining or predicting export quantities demanded.  

USDA FAS weekly export sales reports resumed on November 13, but export data picked up where it left off (i.e., for September 18).  Even with issuing semi-weekly reports to catch up, the normal one-week lag schedule won’t be achieved until January 8, 2026.  The one-week lag schedule has the most value as a current demand indicator.  But instead of a 43-day delay, we are really dealing with a 112-day delay (September 18 to January 8) until a full return to normal reporting.  Thus for over a hundred days, the only market participants with knowledge of the current export demand picture were the merchandizers.

 For another example, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes weekly “Commitment of Traders” (COT) data on the positions of index funds and hedge funds in agricultural futures markets (Figure 2).  The changes in these speculative futures positions have near term value in explaining fluctuations in ICE cotton futures.  Like the cotton export sales data, the COT data have little explanatory power outside of a week old.

The 2025 Commitment of Traders (COT) report schedule saw significant revisions due to the federal funding lapse, leading to catch-up publications throughout the end of 2025.  Reports for late October and November 2025 were pushed to December 2025, with the CFTC increasing frequency until a return to the normal reporting schedule on December 29, 2025.  Beyond the direct shutdown (7 to 8 weeks) the CFTC near term publication schedule won’t be fully restored until after a 17-week period.

Thus, the disruption of valuable near-term cotton marketing data flow has been quite long, but as we enter the new year, we are finally back to a normal reporting period.

Robinson, John. “An End to the Disruption of Two Key Weekly Federal Crop Reports.” Southern Ag Today 5(53.3). December 31, 2025. Permalink