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  • Farm Financial Stress and Suicide Risk: Red Flags Every Community Should Know

    Farm Financial Stress and Suicide Risk: Red Flags Every Community Should Know

    Farming is more than a job; it’s an identity, a calling, and a generational promise. Yet, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that many farmers are reaching their breaking point due to many stressors.

    Farmers face risk through rising input costs, low commodity prices, new tariffs, shrinking margins, labor shortages, and unpredictable weather. For the 12-month period ending June 30, 2025, there were 282 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings in the U.S. The Southern region alone accounted for 101, or 35.8% of those filings. Compared to the prior 12-month period (July 2023 to June 2024), this is a 55.8% increase nationally and a 68.3% increase in the South. These statistics reflect more than financial struggles; they reveal livelihood, farming legacies, and farmland at the risk of a loss. When the future of the farm feels threatened, stress can sink into despair and take a serious toll on mental health. Too often, farmers cope in silence, pushing through the work while avoiding honest conversations with family, friends, or professionals about the financial stress they’re carrying.

    Studies confirm this reality of coping in silence. Fear of being judged and shame keep many farmers from reaching out for mental health support. Although the stigma around seeking help has eased slightly in recent years, it continues to prevent many from getting the care they need. A 2019-2021 AFBF study found an 11% drop in farmers and farm workers who see the stigma as a barrier, yet 61% still report it as an obstacle. Research also shows gender differences: women farmers report depressive symptoms up to four times higher than men, while male farmers face a suicide risk 50% greater than men in other occupations. In short, male farmers die by suicide at higher rates, while women farmers experience higher rates of ongoing depression, highlighting the elevated financial stress across agriculture.

    A recent Center for Disease Control (CDC) study further underscores the risk. CDC reports that farmer suicide rates are 3.5 times higher than the national average. Rural isolation and the stigma of seeking help for mental health, combined with access to firearms and toxic farm chemicals, makes a crisis especially dangerous. When financial stress runs this deep, it shows up in words, actions, and farm operations. Some of the common red flags to watch for:

    • Verbal cues: “I can’t afford to feed my cows,” “I am a failure.”
    • Behavioral changes: Social withdrawal, uncharacteristic anger, neglecting bills or chores.
    • Farm operation clues: Missed planting or harvest windows, sudden downsizing without a plan, neglected livestock.
    • Emotional/physical changes: Persistent hopelessness, sleep or eating changes, unexplained aches.

    Every farmer faces difficult choices. But nobody should shoulder these burdens alone. Support can start close to home with a trusted pastor, church member, Extension agent, or counselor/therapist. Community also plays a vital role: peer support, connection, and resources can save lives. By checking in, listening without judgment, and normalizing conversations about financial stress, we can recognize red flags early, save lives, and help farm families build a sustainable future. A recent University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture publication, Identifying Financial Stress in Farmers and Ranchers: A Guide for Families, Friends, and Agricultural Community Stakeholders, highlights practical ways communities can recognize red flags of distress before a crisis unfolds. 

    If red flags persist, seek support: 

    • Suicide & Crisis Lifeline: 988
    • AgriStress Helpline: 1-833-897-2474
    • Farm Aid: 1-800-327-6243

    Cooperative Extension Services across the United States provide suicide prevention training, often using evidence-based programs like QPR (Question, Persuade, Refer). Many Extension systems also offer mental health resources directly or can connect families to local providers. In addition, the Farm and Ranch Stress Assistance Network (FRSAN) is a national resource offering farm stress and mental health support, with tools designed specifically for agricultural communities. For more information, visit: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-congressional-relations/office-external-and-intergovernmental-affairs/center-faith/farm-stress-and-mental-health-resources

    References

    American Farm Bureau Federation. (2021, December). Farmer and rural perceptions of Mental Health. Farmer and Rural  Perceptions of Mental  Health. https://www.fb.org/files/Farmer_and_Rural_Mental_Health_AFBF.pdf

    American Farm Bureau Federation Staff. “Modern farmer: Farmers face a mental health crisis. Talking to others in the industry can help.” American Farm Bureau Federation.  https://www.fb.org/in-the-news/modern-farmer-farmers-face-a-mental-health-crisis-talking-to-others-in-the-industry-can-help. June 24, 2024.

    Fields, Erica Barnes, and Rainey, Rainey. “Identifying Financial Stress in Farmers and Ranchers: A Guide for Families, Friends, and Agricultural Community Stakeholders.” University of Arkansas Factsheet. Retrieved from: https://www.uaex.uada.edu/publications/pdf/FSA96.pdf 

    Loy, Ryan, Fields, Erica Barnes, and Rainey, Ronald. “Tracking Chapter 12 Bankruptcies in the South: 2015 – 2025 Trends and Identifying On-Farm Stress.” Southern Ag Today 5(37. l). September 8, 2025. Permalink  

    Sussell A, Peterson C, Li J, Miniño A, Scott KA, Stone DM. Suicide Rates by Industry and Occupation — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2021 . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023;72:1346–1350. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7250a2 Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7250a2.htm#suggestedcitation

    United States Courts. (2025). Caseload Statistics Data Tables. Retrieved from: https://www.uscourts.gov/statistics-reports/caseload-statistics-data-tables

    Fields, Erica Barnes, Ryan Loy, and Ronald Rainey. “Farm Financial Stress and Suicide Risk: Red Flags Every Community Should Know.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.5). October 3, 2025. Permalink

  • China’s Agricultural Imports from U.S. and Brazil Decline in 2025 – But the U.S. Faces Sharper Losses

    China’s Agricultural Imports from U.S. and Brazil Decline in 2025 – But the U.S. Faces Sharper Losses

    The decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China has made headlines, most notably due to China’s decision not to purchase U.S. soybeans this season. Soybeans are the largest agricultural export for the United States, and China has traditionally been the top foreign buyer of U.S. soybeans, making this shift particularly significant for American producers. While stories have been mostly about declines in U.S. exports to China, it is important to note that China’s agricultural imports—including related products like forestry, biodiesel, and seafood—are down overall in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting a broader contraction in trade. 

    Figure 1 shows China’s total agricultural imports from global sources, including the United States and Brazil. Overall, total imports declined in 2025 compared to 2024, with the most significant drop occurring during the first half of the year. For example, imports in January 2025 fell to approximately $18 billion, down from $22 billion in January 2024. A year-to-date comparison (January–August) shows total imports decreased from $157 billion in 2024 to $145 billion in 2025, a reduction of $12.1 billion, or 7.5%. In terms of quantity or volume, the decline was even steeper—nearly 12% (Trade Data Monitor®, 2025), suggesting that lower import values were not solely driven by price changes but also by reduced quantities.

    Although China’s agricultural imports declined overall, imports from the United States experienced a sharper and more sustained drop, beginning later in the year. In January 2025, imports from the U.S. were down by only $220 million compared to the previous year, and in February, they were up by nearly $600 million. However, starting in March, imports consistently fell below 2024 levels. By August, year-to-date China’s imports of U.S. agriculture and related products had dropped from $20 billion in 2024 to $14 billion in 2025, a decline of more than $5 billion, or 27.5%.

    Brazil also experienced a decrease in agricultural export sales to China in 2025, though the decline was less severe than that of the United States. As of August 2025, imports from Brazil fell from $36.7 billion in 2024 to $31.2 billion, representing a 15.0% decrease. Month-to-month comparisons show sharper early-year declines: imports were down 51% in January, 43% in February, and 53% in March compared to the same months in 2024. However, beginning in May 2025, import levels from Brazil became more comparable to the previous year and even exceeded 2024 figures in some months. This mid-year rebound suggests that Brazil is benefiting from seasonal demand as well as favorable trade conditions.

    Figure 1. China’s total agricultural imports from the World, United States, and Brazil: January 2024 – August 2025  

    Note: Agricultural import values include related products like forestry, biodiesel, and seafood.
    Source: Trade Data Monitor® (2025)
     

    Reference

    Trade Data Monitor®. (2025). Retrieved from https://www.tradedatamonitor.com

    Muhammad, Andrew. “China’s Agricultural Imports from U.S. and Brazil Decline in 2025 – But the U.S. Faces Sharper Losses.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.4). October 2, 2025. Permalink

  • 2025/26 Rice Market Outlook

    2025/26 Rice Market Outlook

    U.S. Production and Harvest Acres

    The 2025 planting season was marked by considerable challenges. Farmers in the Midsouth faced historical flooding in April that forced replanting across a significant portion of the Mississippi delta region. As farmers put planting behind them, the growing season brought extreme heat and a prolonged drought. In contrast, California experienced a relatively normal year with ideal planting temperatures and no surface water allocation issues (USA Rice, 2025).  Even with California’s improved season, the production setbacks in the Mississippi delta region offset those gains, and, as a result, U.S. rice production is expected to decline roughly 10 million cwt from 2024 levels, falling to 208.8 million cwt in 2025 (Figure 1). Over the past decade, production has fluctuated between 160 and 230 million cwt, with acreage shifting between 2 – 3 million acres. Peaks in 2016, 2018, and 2020 reflect the typical crop rotation across the midsouth. However, with high input costs and weaker rice prices, 2022 marked a contraction in production at 160 million cwt. Production has since recovered, due in part to more favorable returns for a rice crop compared to other Midsouth commodities such as corn or cotton.  

    Figure 1. U.S. All Rice-Class Production and Acres Harvested (2015 – 2025F)

    Source: USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 2025

    The September 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecasts a 35% year-over-year increase in all rice-class beginning stocks. This increase in beginning stocks is almost entirely driven by the 93% year-over-year increase for long grain, the result of record yields across the southern region in 2024, with Arkansas averaging 169.8 bu/acre (UADA-CES, 2025). On the other hand, medium grain is forecasted to fall by 27.5%. The current outlook is for a slight rise in overall exports and a relatively minor decrease (~0.9%) in ending stocks relative to 2024/25 (USDA-AMS, 2025). Ending stocks are currently forecasted at 53.4 million cwt, compared to 2024/45, which was 53.9 million cwt. The USDA anticipates long-grain rice exports will reach 64 million cwt, a level that hinges on maintaining price competitiveness in global markets. As a result, farm prices for long-grain rice are forecast to decline to $12.00/cwt, while the prices for Southern medium & short-grain rice are forecast at $12.50/cwt (Figure 2). These expectations represent a severe decline from the 2024/25 marketing year, with long grain and Southern medium & short grain prices falling 14% and 18%, respectively. It’s worth noting that the effective reference price has increased from $14.00/cwt to $16.90/cwt for the 2025/26 marketing year (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 2025). Figure 2 highlights this change, showing that current forecasts indicate a possible PLC payment under the new effective reference price. 

    Figure 2. Rice Marketing Year Average Farm Prices (2021/22 – 2025/26F)

    Source: USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 2025

    Figure 3 highlights a modest increase in exports across major rice-supplying countries. However, global rice prices have trended downward throughout 2025, primarily due to weaker global demand, India resuming rice exports, much lower import demand from Indonesia, and a temporary ban on rice imports in the Philippines, which is expected to lift in November (USDA-FAS, 2025). U.S. long-grain rice is currently priced around $585/ton[1], which represents the most expensive rice on the world market. In contrast, India, Pakistan, and Thailand are all competing for the cheapest rice on the market, priced at around $360/ton. The broad decline in the world rice price has been from India’s decision to lift its rice export ban in September 2024. Nearly a year later, Indian exports continue to exert downward pressure on international markets.

    Figure 3. Milled Rice Exports (2021/22 – 2025/26Sept)

    Source: USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), 2025

    [1] This price reflects #2, 4-percent brokens, sacked FOB, Gulf Coast (Childs and Abadam, 2025)

    References

    Childs, N., and Abadam, V. (2025). Rice Outlook: September 2025 (Report No. RCS-25H). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/dn39x152w/j9604180m/w0894b61f/RCS-25H.pdf

    University of Arkansas – Cooperative Extension Service. (2025). Rice Production in Arkansas. Division of Agriculture. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://www.uaex.uada.edu/farm-ranch/crops-commercial-horticulture/rice/#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20Arkansas%20rice%20producers,lb%2Facre)%20in%202021.

    United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. (2025). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-664). Retrieved September 15, 2025, from, https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0925.pdf

    United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service – PSD Reports. (2025). World Rice Trade. Retrieved September 12, 2025, from, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

    United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. (2025). Rice Production and Acres Harvested. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

    USA Rice. (2025). Spring Planting Report. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://www.usarice.com/news-and-events/publications/usa-rice-daily/article/usa-rice-daily/2025/04/25/spring-planting-report

    Loy, Ryan, and Alvaro Durand-Morat. “2025/26 Rice Market Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.3). October 1, 2025. Permalink

  • The Chicken or The Egg…. Productivity in 2026  

    The Chicken or The Egg…. Productivity in 2026  

    This is not a question of which came first, we all know the answer to that. But, as was discussed in an earlier SAT for cattle, hogs and lambs, this is a question of productivity for the chicken and egg segments of the U.S. poultry market this coming year. (A turkey outlook previously discussed here)  

    Chicken

    Broiler production increased by 846 million pounds in 2024 over 2023, a 1.4 percent increase (Fig. 1).  Increased production came from two sources: more birds and more pounds per bird. On the bird side, 93 million more broilers were produced, a 1 percent increase. As has happened in 5 of the last 6 years, increased chicken production also came from producing a heavier bird, on average, 6.55 lbs. in 2024 vs. 6.52 lbs. in 2023. 

    Production increases have been supported by profitable prices and falling feed costs. Broiler demand has likely benefited from increasing prices for beef and pork. So far in 2025, the increased productivity trend continues with the weekly average production maintaining about a 30-million-pound lead on historical weekly production back to 2019 and staying slightly above 2024 production. Though chick livability declined again in 2024, the lost birds were offset by placing more chicks overall (Fig. 2). 

    One important question for broiler productivity is if the chicken industry can continue to boost the supply of additional chicks for broilers. This problem goes all the way back to the supply of broiler type pullets. These are the pullets that become laying hens that supply broiler chicks. The broiler hatchery supply flock had seen a steady increase since 2012. But, beginning in 2023, the supply flock began decreasing steadily, with only a slight reprieve being projected (Fig. 3). Just like fewer cows equals fewer feeder calves, fewer breeder hens equal fewer broiler chicks. This supply crunch may start hitting broiler production as early as Q1 2026.

    Eggs

    The same old scourge the industry has been fighting since February 2022 continues to haunt table egg supply – Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Since this outbreak began in 2022, 127 million laying hens have been lost. As outbreaks continue, new hens entering production must make up for lost birds and normal turnover.  While HPAI has sharply reduced the number of table egg layers since 2022, a longer term look at supplies reveals that the number of table eggs produced has been falling since 2019 (Fig. 4). Egg prices hit all-time highs in late 2022 and again in early 2025. But, during the interim period, prices were relatively stable. Price volatility seems to be mostly due to short-term supply challenges.  

    Total per capita egg consumption is down from 286 eggs in 2020 to 271 in 2024 (egg-news.com sourced). While consumption tends to equal production (e.g., we eat all we produce), the question remains whether people are eating fewer eggs in general, or if consumption is down because of price and supply dynamics?  The sharp price spike in 2025 was followed by a marked decrease in egg demand (Fig. 5), which suggests price as a primary driver. But since then, prices have moderated, and demand hasn’t seemed to have rebounded much, which suggests this is more than just a price story. Interest in production and productivity is likely to remain important as HPAI occurrences are ramping up as Fall begins and wild bird migrations resume their normal patterns.

    Fig. 1: Broiler production (chicken) in the us has been on a slower year over year increase in pounds for many years. Over the last 6 years, pounds of chicken produced have increased 5%. 1.4% in ’23 to ’24 alone, with 2025 projected to be another slight increase.

    Fig. 2: Increased placements of broiler chicks has overcome an increase in mortality to maintain increasing production of chicken meat. 

    Fig. 3: Broiler laying hen supply has been decreasing the past several years, possibly stressing the future supply chain broiler chicks. 

    Fig. 4: Total Table Eggs being produced has been decreasing since 2019, as well as the number of eggs consumed per person annually. (USDA-NASS)

    Fig. 5: Egg prices can cause noticeable reactions to egg demand, especially when those prices are extremely high, as in early 2025.

    Brothers, Dennis. “The Chicken or The Egg…. Productivity in 2026.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.2). September 30, 2025. Permalink

  • The H-2B Visa Program and the Food Sector

    The H-2B Visa Program and the Food Sector

    Declining labor availability has been affecting the agricultural sector for many decades. Limited interest in physically demanding jobs by domestic workers, as well as a reduction in the supply of undocumented farmworkers, have been some of the major reasons behind this pattern (Gutierrez-Li, 2025). As a result, demand for foreign workers coming under H-2A visas to perform manual tasks in agriculture has risen steadily for more than a decade (Gutierrez-Li, 2021 and 2024), making the program very popular among growers of labor-intensive crops. A lesser-known non-immigrant visa program, the H-2B, has been a lifeline for many employers associated with food production in the United States.

    The H-2B program originates from the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, when the H-2 visa category for manual labor foreign workers was created (Gutierrez-Li, 2024). In 1986, the Immigration Reform and Control Act divided the program into two subcategories: H-2A for agricultural workers and H-2B for non-agricultural work. Both allow workers from a list of countries to come for a season (of less than one year), but with the possibility of holding the same visa for up to three years in a row. The H-2B program covers a variety of industries, including resort and hospitality services, retail sales, landscaping, groundskeeping, food processing, and construction. Employers interested in hiring either type of worker need to convince the government that they cannot find enough American laborers able, willing, qualified, and available to do the temporary tasks they need. Furthermore, both programs require employers to cover transportation from and to the country of origin of workers, but only the H-2A program mandates employers to pay for housing costs.

    The determination of yearly wages is not the same for H-2A and H-2B workers. In the case of the former, employers generally pay the adverse effect wage rate. In the case of H-2B workers, they must be paid the prevailing wage rate, defined as “the average wage paid to similarly employed workers in a specific occupation in the area of intended employment” (Department of Labor, 2025). Another important difference between the H-2A and the H-2B programs is that the latter has an annual cap on the number of visas set by Congress, currently at 66,000. The cap is split into two halves. The first 33,000 visas are made available from October 1 to March 31. The second batch runs from April 1 to September 30. However, as shown in Figure 1, the number of H-2B visas issued by the government has increased substantially in the last five years, despite the existing annual cap. This increase is explained by two factors. First, fish roe processors or technicians, their supervisors, and workers in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands or Guam are exempted from the cap until December 31, 2029. Second, the Executive branch, through the Department of Homeland Security, has the authority to issue more visas beyond the annual cap just for that year, both for returning and new workers.

    Figure 1. H-2B Visas Issued in Figure 1. H-2B Visas Issued During Period 2020-2024

    Source: United States Department of State

    Among the top employers of H-2B workers in 2024 were companies related to tree services (like pruning) or nurseries, landscaping, construction work, and seafood production (Table 1). H-2B workers were found performing tasks directly related to the food sector, like cutting meat, poultry, and fish, working as waiters and waitresses in restaurants, and even as cooks. Individuals working in landscaping and groundskeeping tasks could indirectly be contributing to the agricultural sector if their employers produce fresh produce or other food-related commodities.

    Table 1. Top 10 Employers of H-2B Workers in 2024

    Employer Workers Approved
    ABC PROFESSIONAL TREE SERVICES INC1,934
    PHC CORPORATION1,772
    PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS LLC1,703
    ROTOLO CONSULTANTS INC1,382
    BRIGHTVIEW LANDSCAPE SERVICES INC1,293
    THE BRICKMAN GROUP LTD LLC1,207
    CORE TECH CONSTRUCTION CORPORATION1,111
    STRONGWOOD FORESTRY INC1,022
    ALPHA SERVICES LLC951
    WESTWARD SEAFOODS INC922
    Source: United States Citizenship and Immigration Services

    Agricultural operations are becoming more complex as rising production costs have led to an increase in the relative number of medium-to-large-sized operators and a reduction in the number of small farms. To stay afloat, larger producers have diversified their businesses to multiple crops and invested in value-added commodities. This trend has resulted in a growing number of companies hiring both H-2A workers (for tasks like harvesting) and H-2B workers for packing, expanding/constructing new facilities, and groundskeeping. Likewise, an increase in demand for housing and eating out has led to the need for more H-2B workers. As such, interest in the program is likely to continue growing. Streamlining the application process, as well as raising (or eliminating) the yearly cap on the number of workers allowed in might be necessary to ensure that the needs of producers are met. Otherwise, given that the H-2B program covers a variety of industries, real estate developers, restaurant owners, and farmers will continue to compete for a limited number of workers, potentially leading to inflationary pressures.

    References

    Gutierrez-Li, A. (2021). The H-2A visa program: Addressing Farm Labor Scarcity in North

    Carolina. NC State Economist. North Carolina State University.

    Gutiérrez-Li, A. 2024. Feeding America: How Immigrants Sustain US Agriculture. Baker

    Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. Center for the U.S. and Mexico.

    Gutiérrez-Li, A. 2025. The Unseen Workforce: How Immigration Enforcement Could Shake the U.S. Economy. Choices 40(3).

    United States Department of Labor (2025). Prevailing Wage Information and Resources. Accessed online in September 2025 at https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/foreign-labor/wages

    United States Department of State. (2025). Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics. Accessed online in September 2025 at https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html

    United States Citizenship and Immigration Services. (2025). H-2B Employer Data Hub. Accessed online in September 2025 at https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/h-2b-employer-data-hub

    Gutierrez-Li, Alejandro. “The H-2B Visa Program and the Food Sector.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.1). September 29, 2025. Permalink