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  • Global Market Prospects for U.S. Long-grain Rice for the Upcoming Marketing Year

    The global rice market has seen a fair share of volatility in the current marketing year, which started off with India’s export ban on white non-basmati rice on July 2023 (see https://southernagtoday.org/2023/07/27/shaking-the-global-rice-market-india-bans-exports-of-white-non-basmati-rice/). While India is bypassing the export ban with government-to-government sales, still the impact of that measure has been felt globally through higher export prices and export activity out of other major rice exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam. Export prices for long-grain non-aromatic rice out of Asia have for the most part remained above $600/metric ton (mt) since then (USDA, 2024a; FAO, 2024). 

    Export prices for U.S. long-grain rice have remained stable since August at around $760-765/mt (USDA, 2024a), which reduced the gap between U.S. and Asian rice prices significantly. For example, in marketing year 2022/23 the average U.S. export price for long grain milled rice #2/4% was $743/mt relative to $481/mt for Thailand 100% B and $460/mt for Vietnam 5%, that is, a 55% and 61% price premium for U.S. rice relative to Thai and Vietnamese rice, respectively. In the first seven months (August-February) of the current 2023/24 marketing year the U.S. rice price premium has decreased to 20% and 18% relative to Thai and Vietnamese rice, respectively. Arguably more importantly, U.S. export prices so far in 2023/24 have been much more competitive vis-à-vis Mercosur rice (average quotes of $819/mt and $792/mt for Brazilian and Uruguayan long-grain 5% rice, respectively (FAO, 2024)), in part due to the large 2023 U.S. crop (153.9 million hundredweight (cwt) according to the March 2024 WASDE Report (USDA, 2024b)) and short 2023 Mercosur rice crop (303 million cwt or 8% below the average of the previous 3 years).  

    The increased price competitiveness of U.S. long-grain rice so far in 2023/24 can explain the extraordinary performance of exports so far. The volume of long-grain rice exports negotiated in the first seven months of the 2023/24 marketing year (53.7 million cwt rough basis) increased 82% relative to the same period in 2022/23, driven primarily by paddy rice exports (175% increase) and milled rice (33% increase). Exports to Mexico increased from 1.76 million cwt in August-February of 2022/23 to 11.2 million cwt in the same period in 2023/24, largely at the expense of Brazilian paddy rice. On the milled rice segment, Haiti and Iraq remain the largest destinations with 38% and 26% of long grain milled rice exports, respectively. 

    Figure 1. Exports of U.S. long-grain rice to selected core markets in the first seven months of the last eight marketing years (rice marketing year: August-July).

    Overall, USDA’s supply and use projections for 2023/24 point to a 14% increase in supply (driven by increases in both production and imports), a 17% increase in use (driven by increases in domestic use and exports), leading to a 6% reduction in ending stocks (USDA, 2024b).

    With the 2023/24 performance as reference, what can we expect for the upcoming marketing year? USDA’s March 2024 prospective plantings (USDA, 2024c) suggest a 12.2% increase in long grain area relative to last year (2.3 relative to 2.05 million acres in 2023), with most of the increase expected in Arkansas. At 2023 average yields, the increase in area will amount to a 16 million cwt increase in production reaching 170 million cwt in 2024, which will put pressure on exports to clear the market. At the same time, rice harvest in Mercosur is coming to an end and production is projected to increase by 9% to 329 million cwt, mainly in Brazil, which will potentially put pressure on U.S. exports in core markets in Mexico and Central America. Finally, it is important to acknowledge the risky nature of U.S. milled rice exports. First, the delicate social, political, and economic situation in Haiti makes that trade highly risky. Second, trade with Iraq has been highly political in nature, which also leaves the industry at the mercy of forces beyond their control. In summary, the expected size of the 2024 U.S. crop (as inferred from March 2024 prospective plantings), the large Mercosur crop, and the risks in key export outlets can be seen as warnings for the upcoming U.S. long-grain season. Moreover, if India decides to end the export ban (still unknown), then further downward price pressure may be expected.       

    References

    USDA, 2024a. Rice Outlook. February 2024. Available at https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=108546.

     USDA 2024b. USDA WASDE Report. March 2024. Available at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde

    USDA 2024c. USDA Prospective Plantings. March 2024. Available at https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/x633f100h

    FAO, 2024. Rice Price Update. March 2024. Available at   https://www.fao.org/markets-and-trade/commodities/rice/fao-rice-price-update/en/


    Durand-Morat, Alvaro . “Global Market Prospects for U.S. Long-grain Rice for the Upcoming Marketing Year.” Southern Ag Today 4(14.4). April 4, 2024. Permalink

  • Tax Considerations of Income and Expenses from Nontimber Forest Products

    Tax Considerations of Income and Expenses from Nontimber Forest Products

    It’s that time of year again! Let’s hope you won’t be like Homer Simpson, scrambling to put numbers on the federal income tax return, rushing to the post office, and tossing the envelope in the mail bin at the last minute on Tax Day. While many of us only think about taxes during tax season, for private forest landowners, every forest management decision could have tax implications. Understanding the tax consequences, taking advantage of the preferential tax provisions, and integrating tax planning into forest management decisions are crucial.  

    Forest landowners may generate income not only from timber but also from various nontimber forest products. Timber income generally qualifies for the preferential capital gains tax treatment if the holding period requirement is met. However, is income from nontimber forest products treated similarly to timber income for federal income tax purposes? This is the topic of today’s article. 

    If you are interested in timber taxes, please refer to the timber tax tips for 2023: https://www.timbertax.org/publications/fs/taxtips/TaxTip2023.pdf.

    Defining nontimber forest products for tax purposes

    Nontimber forest products generally refer to goods harvested or derived from forests for purposes other than timber. They may include tops, limbs, twigs, branches, roots, tubers, bulbs, leaves, bark, fruits, nuts, tree sap, mushrooms, and other fungi, and in some instances, entire plants. 

    Note that the IRS definition of timber differs from the term used by a forester. For tax purposes, timber generally means standing trees suitable for commercial production of wood products. Under certain tax provisions (e.g., gain or loss from the disposition of timber under Section 631), timber also includes Christmas trees (i.e., evergreen trees aged six years or older when severed from roots and sold for ornamental purposes). Therefore, nontimber forest products, for tax purposes, have a broader scope than their definition in forestry. 

    Character of income from nontimber forest products

    Not all types of income are treated equally for tax purposes. The character of income may determine whether it’s subject to certain taxes (e.g., self-employment tax, net investment income tax), which loss deduction rules to follow, the allowable amount of certain deductions, and the applicable tax rate. 

    With a few exceptions, net profits from the sale of most nontimber forest products generally are taxable as ordinary income. If the income is derived from your material participation in a trade or business (including a farming business), it is subject to self-employment tax. 

    Sales of the following nontimber forest products normally generate ordinary income:

    • Logging residues left behind after a timber harvest and sold separately from the original timber sale. Products such as pulpwood from tops and limbs, wood mulch, wood chips, and firewood may be made from these logging residues. While income from the original timber harvest might qualify as capital gains, income from the sale of these byproducts is ordinary income. The sale of tree stumps is normally considered ordinary income (see below for an exception). 
    • Christmas trees harvested before reaching six years of age.
    • Products collected from trees, such as pine straw, maple sap, walnut sap, evergreen boughs, pinecones, fruits, and nuts.
    • Living trees, such as seedlings, balled-and-burlapped trees, living ornamental trees, and living fruit or nut trees. 
    • Products from annual plants and mushrooms in forests, including mosses, lichens, vines, herbs, wildflowers, ramps, beargrass, and mushrooms. 
    • Products derived from some perennial plants but not the final harvest. For example, some ginseng growers sell the leaves and stems of the plants annually before harvesting the roots. 

    On the other hand, long-term capital gains could be generated in these cases:

    • The sale of tree stumps from cutover land purchased years ago as an investment by a taxpayer not in the timber or tree stump business. 
    • The final harvest sale of cultivated perennial plants. Examples include American ginseng, black cohosh, and goldenseal. Income from the sale of these products’ roots can qualify as capital gains.

    Reporting expenses and income from nontimber forest products

    Depending on the extent of your involvement in the production of nontimber forest products, your nontimber activities  may qualify as a trade or business. Especially, forest farming operations is inherently a business because it is the intentional and intensive management of forested lands to produce nontimber products and is . 

    Ordinary and necessary expenses related to the gathering, growing, processing, or marketing of nontimber forest products are deductible. Nontimber forest products producers who qualify as material participants in a trade or business should report the deductible expenses on Form 1040, Schedule C or F, as appropriate. Expenses incurred to establish forest perennials are capital expenses. They can be recorded in a capital account and deducted from the gross proceeds when the plants are harvested and sold. Material participants in a trade or business should report ordinary income from nontimber forest products on Schedule C or F (Form 1040), as appropriate, and report capital gains on Form 4797.

    Forest owners classified as investors should report ordinary income from nontimber forest products as “Other income” on Form 1040, Schedule 1, and report capital gains on Form 8949 and Schedule D (Form 1040).  Prior to 2018, investors report deductible expenses as miscellaneous itemized deductions on IRS Form 1040, Schedule A, where they will be subject to the 2 percent of adjusted gross income floor. However, the miscellaneous itemized deductions are suspended for 2018-2025 because of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

    Conclusions

    Many private forest landowners generate income from nontimber forest products. While the income serves as a supplement to timber income for some forest landowners, for others, it may be their primary source of income. With a few exceptions, most of the income from nontimber forest products is taxable as ordinary income for federal income tax purposes. Ordinary and necessary expenses associated with the production of nontimber forest products are deductible. It is critical to keep records of these expenses to support your profit motive and substantiate your deductions. 

    This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult your own tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation.


    Li, Yanshu. “Tax Considerations of Income and Expenses from Nontimber Forest Products.Southern Ag Today 4(14.3). April 3, 2024. Permalink

  • The Now and Later of Feedlot Inventories

    The Now and Later of Feedlot Inventories

    USDA released the latest monthly cattle on feed report on Friday, the 22nd after anticipation about how much higher February placements would be compared to January placements. February placements (cattle entering the feedlot) were 10 percent higher than a year ago and 5.5 percent higher than cattle placed in January 2024. Several factors played a role in this increase such as harsh winter conditions early in the year making for unfavorable pen conditions for cattle in January, an extra day in February due to it being a leap year, and record high cattle prices incentivizing producers to sell cattle. 

    Prices for 450-500 pound steers in Florida are 46.8 percent higher than a year ago and prices for heifers of the same weight are 41 percent higher. Recent high calf prices have encouraged selling heifers, expecially by those with hay bills to pay from feeding through much of last year.  But, the growing expectation of even higher prices to come will encourage holding heifers to expand cow herds. 

    However, the increase in cattle on feed, specifically heifers, is a short-term situation. Heifers and cull cows entering feedlots and packing plants are directly contributing to beef production now, rather than being bred so they could indirectly contribute to beef production through their offspring later. The result is that cattle supplies will become even more limited than they are now and will affect long-term beef production in the coming years. This outcome can already be seen by calculating feeder cattle supply (the number of calves outside of feedlots) from the Cattle Inventory report using the following formula: (number of heifers not intented for replacement (other) + steers >500 pounds + calves <500 pounds) – cattle on feed. As of January 2024, feeder cattle supplies total at 24.2 million head, down 9 percent since the last herd peak in 2019 and the smallest since 1972 according to available data. Feedlots will soon not be able to continue maintaining current inventory levels. 


    Baker, Hannah. “The Now and Later of Feedlot Inventories.” Southern Ag Today 4(14.2). April 2, 2024. Permalink

  • The 2024 Sugar Market Domestic Supply and Outlook

    The 2024 Sugar Market Domestic Supply and Outlook

    The domestic production of sugar in the United States (U.S.) originates from sugarcane harvested in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas and sugarbeets harvested across the Upper Midwest, Central Plains, Mountain states, Pacific Northwest, and California. Sugarcane is harvested from October to March and sugarbeets are harvested in the late summer through fall, except for California where sugarbeets are harvested in the spring through the summer. Earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted a record domestic sugar crop for fiscal year (FY) 2023/24, which is from October 2023 to September 2024. The USDA later lowered its FY 2023/24 forecast to 9.24 million short tons raw value (STRV) of sugar (Figure 1) because of unseasonably warm weather in the Upper Midwest and a severe drought in Louisiana and Texas (USDA, 2024b). 

    U.S. beet sugar production for FY 2023/24 is now estimated at 5.17 million STRV, which is consistent with previous FYs (Figure 1). In earlier USDA reports, the beet sugar production forecast was as high as 5.41 million STRV, but unseasonably warm temperatures in the Red River Valley during the months of December and February led to a portion of sugarbeet piles having to be discarded due to spoilage. This contributed to increased beet shrink, which rose from 7.88% in February to 9.00% in March, and decreased sucrose extraction which fell from 15.26% to 15.02% month-over-month (USDA, 2024c). As a result, USDA lowered projections of beet sugar production this year, from 5.41 million STRV in January to 5.17 million STRV in March (a reduction of almost 240,000 tons in two months).

    U.S. cane sugar production for FY 2023/24 is estimated at 4.07 million STRV. This would be the highest level of cane sugar production since FY 2019/20. Increases from the state of Florida and a better-than-expected crop in Louisiana (which was hard hit by drought during the growing season) contributed to FY 2023/24’s production eclipsing last year’s level. Prior to the onset of drought conditions in Louisiana, the state was poised to post its third consecutive year of strong, record setting production, overtaking Florida for two consecutive years for the first time. However, current estimates of cane sugar production from Louisiana are down about 65,194 tons from last year’s production to 1.94 million tons.

    Figure 1. U.S. Beet and Cane Sugar Production.

    Source USDA 2024a.

    Lastly, the lack of both rainfall and irrigation water for agricultural producers in the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas over the past several years has caused cane sugar production from Texas to fall from as much as 169,000 STRV in 2017 to as few as 40,000 STRV this year. In February, the Board of Directors from the Rio Grande Valley Sugar Growers announced that this would be the last year of cane sugar production in Texas. Given the uncertainty regarding the administration of the 1944 Water Treaty between Mexico and the U.S., which governs water sharing on both the Colorado River as well as the Lower Rio Grande, growers could not count on irrigation water supply, making purchasing crop insurance uncertain and making necessary investments into the sugar mill and farming operations too risky (USDA, 2024c; San Antonio Express News, 2024). 

    In total, U.S. sugar production in FY 2023/24 is estimated to be 9.24 million STRV, which would be the third largest crop behind FY 2017/18 (9.29 million STRV) and last year’s crop (9.25 million STRV). With expected domestic demand of 12.6 million STRV and some exports going to Mexico, total use is projected at 12.7 million STRV (USDA, 2024a) which would, suggest ending stocks of 1.7 million STRV, and a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.4%, all else being equal. On average, the USDA’s estimates of ending stocks-to-use have been low in March relative to the final estimate in December by 1.2% over the past six years, suggesting a final stocks-to-use of approximately 14.6%, and ending stocks of 1.85 million STRV, or 3.7 billion pounds of sugar.

                Even though U.S. sugar producers have seen their input costs rise by more than 30% since the last Farm Bill (Deliberto and DeLong, 2023), the U.S. is still the fifth largest producer of sugar in the world producing more than 9 million STRV of sugar (USDA, 2024d). 

    With 12.5 million STRV of sugar consumption, the U.S. is also the third largest importer of sugar in the world (USDA, 2024d). How these dynamics interact with sugar markets and sugar policy will be addressed in a future Southern Ag Today article.


    References

    Deliberto, M and K.L. DeLong. “Examining Sugarcane and Sugarbeet Production Costs.” Southern Ag Today 3(50.1). December 11, 2023. https://southernagtoday.org/2023/12/11/examining-sugarcane-and-sugarbeet-production-costs/

    United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2024a. World Agricultural Supply and 

    Demand Estimates. Retrieved from: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde

    USDA. 2024b. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Retrieved from: 

    https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0324.pdf

    USDA. 2024c. Economic Research Service. Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook. Retrieved from: 

    https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/108800/sss-m-427.pdf?v=1130.6

    USDA. 2024d. Foreign Agricultural Service. Sugar: World Markets and Trade. Retrieved from: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf

    San Antonio Express News. 2024. Texas’ Last Known Sugar Mill Shuts Down in Rio Grande 

    Valley, Citing Water Issues with Mexico. Retrieved from: 

    https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/texas-sugar-mill-closes-cites-water-issues-mexico-18687760.php


    Deliberto, Michael, and Karen L. DeLong. “The 2024 Sugar Market Domestic Supply and Outlook.Southern Ag Today 4(14.1). April 1, 2024. Permalink

  • Part 2: Cultivating Resilience and Innovation in US Specialty Crop Economics: Navigating Market Dynamics, Labor Challenges, and Global Realities

    Part 2: Cultivating Resilience and Innovation in US Specialty Crop Economics: Navigating Market Dynamics, Labor Challenges, and Global Realities

    Economic Choice Sets for US Specialty Crop Industry Success 

    (to see Part 1 click here)

    Differentiation Strategies

    To thrive in a competitive market, growers are encouraged to focus on differentiation of crops and market outlets. This involves communicating a compelling brand message through robust measurement, reporting, and verification practices. Furthermore, aligning product offerings with local consumer preferences and establishing personalized product relationships may enhance market positioning.

    Motivation Through Innovation

    Incentivizing on-farm worker productivity is pivotal for efficiency, which requires investment of time and training to ensure the health, safety, and wellbeing of the humans needed to achieve this goal. Collaborating with ag tech startups prioritizing sustainability offers avenues for innovation adoption. Embracing the energy and fresh perspectives of younger innovators in the industry fosters a culture of continuous improvement and adaptability.

    Cooperation for Integrated Solutions

    Collaboration is key to addressing the multifaceted challenges of the specialty crop sector. Evolving towards integrated solutions involves navigating trust issues around data sharing, managing expectations for return on investment, and actively seeking partnerships with nontraditional allies who share common goals.

    Localizing Production with Precision Agriculture

    Improving resilience requires a concerted effort to build production around technology, rather than crafting technology to suit existing production practices. Precision agriculture continues to serve as a transformative tool. Further, enabling sustainable food supply systems through use of data-driven tools offer ways to improve decision-making, resource optimization, and enhanced productivity.

    In conclusion, the US specialty crop industry stands at a crossroads, necessitating considerations of an economic risk management approach to navigate the complexities of the market, labor dynamics, and global challenges. By cultivating resilience, embracing innovation, and making strategic choices aligned with market demands, stakeholders can fortify and sustain profitability of the specialty crop industry in the United States. 


    Morgan, Kimberly. “Part 2: Cultivating Resilience and Innovation in US Specialty Crop Economics: Navigating Market Dynamics, Labor Challenges, and Global Realities.Southern Ag Today 4(13.5). March 29, 2024. Permalink