According to the most recent data on U.S. and China reciprocal tariffs, as reported by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Bown, 2023), U.S. tariffs on imports from China currently stand at 51.1%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods are at 32.6%. This is an improvement compared to the tariff levels in late April and early May that exceeded 100%. However, these tariffs have had a significant impact on U.S. agricultural exports to China. China is among the top five export destinations for U.S. agricultural exports (Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea). China experienced the most significant decrease among the top markets, with exports plummeting by 55.0%, from $11.1 billion in 2024 (YTD: January – May) to just $5.0 billion in 2025 (See Table 1). This sharp drop highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes, and shifting global supply chains.
This Monday (July 7, 2025), President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1st (Fortnam, 2025). This move marks a significant shift in trade policy, targeting two major allies and the 4th and 5th largest destination markets for U.S. agricultural exports. While the tariffs are intended to address bilateral trade deficits and protect U.S. industries, this decision is likely to strain diplomatic relations and could have a significant impact on U.S. agricultural exports similar to what we have experienced with China. Unlike China, U.S. agricultural exports to Japan and South Korea showed positive growth in 2025 YTD. Japan’s imports increased by 6.0%, rising from $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion in 2025. South Korea had the highest growth among the top markets, with a 15.8% increase, from $3.8 billion to $4.4 billion in 2025 (See Table 1). This surge reflects South Korea’s expanding market for U.S. agricultural goods, driven by favorable trade agreements and growing consumer demand.
U.S. agricultural exports to Japan and South Korea totaled $11.9 billion and $8.5 billion in 2024, respectively. Japan is a major market for U.S. corn ($2.7 billion), beef products ($1.9 billion), pork products ($1.4 billion), and soybeans ($1.0 billion). South Korea is a significant market for U.S. beef products ($2.2 billion), pork products ($0.7 billion), and corn ($0.7 billion) (USDA, 2025). If President Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, U.S. agricultural trade with these countries could face significant challenges. Japan and South Korea are the 3rd and 4th largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports, showing positive growth in recent years. The tariffs could lead to reduced demand for U.S. products, harming American farmers. Additionally, Japan and South Korea might retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. goods, further exacerbating the situation and disrupting established trade relationships.
Table 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports, Total and Top Destinations: 2024 and 2025 (January – May)
| Country | 2024 | Jan – May 2024 | Jan – May 2025 | % Change |
| $ billion | ||||
| World (total) | $176.4 | $74.2 | $72.2 | -2.6 |
| Mexico | 30.2 | 12.5 | 12.3 | -1.7 |
| Canada | 29.5 | 12.0 | 11.6 | -3.2 |
| China | 24.4 | 11.1 | 5.0 | -55.0 |
| Japan | 11.9 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| South Korea | 8.5 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 15.8 |
| Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (2025) | ||||
For more information:
Bown, C.P. (2025). US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart
Fortnam, B. (2025). “Trump tells Japan, Korea he’s imposing 25 percent tariffs as of Aug. 1.” Inside U.S. Trade (July 7, 2025) https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/trump-tells-japan-korea-he-s-imposing-25-percent-tariffs-aug-1 (subscription required for access).
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2025). Global Agricultural Trade System. Foreign Agricultural Service. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
Muhammad, Andrew. “U.S. Agriculture Could Face New Challenges with President Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Japan and South Korea.” Southern Ag Today 5(28.4). July 10, 2025. Permalink
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