Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade in 2025: Exploring the Recent August Forecasts 

The August 2025 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade provides a snapshot of the current challenges and opportunities in global markets (USDA, 2025a). The quarterly report has long been a valuable tool for understanding how international trends affect the U.S. farm economy. In the past, it included both data and written commentary to explain possible causes behind trade shifts. However, the May 2025 report sparked controversy when its release was delayed. The issue centered on explanatory text that linked rising agricultural trade deficits to tariffs (Ingwersen & Douglas, 2025). As a result, the USDA removed the commentary and now publishes only data tables. This change has raised concerns about transparency and the loss of expert interpretation that helped make sense of complex trade dynamics.

The August report shows that the U.S. will continue to import more agricultural goods than it exports. However, the projected trade deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2025—running from October to September—was revised downward from $49.5 billion in the May report to $47.0 billion. This adjustment was driven by an upward revision in forecasted exports, while the import forecast remained unchanged from May at $220 billion. For FY2025, exports are now expected to reach $173 billion, with imports holding at $220 billion.

These revisions raise important questions. Are they justified based on the available data? Most notably, is there clear evidence of increased export activity to support the upward revision? And given current trends, should the import forecast have been adjusted as well—either upward or downward? A closer look at recent trade is needed to assess whether these changes reflect actual market conditions or optimism. 

Year-to-date (October to June) export values are reported in Table 1. The data suggest that the value of agricultural exports will remain relatively flat. During the first three quarters of the fiscal year, export values increased slightly from $135.0 billion in 2024 to $135.7 billion in 2025, which is a modest 0.6% rise. However, the volume of exports grew significantly, increasing from 162.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 175.9 MMT, an 8.3% increase. This growth in quantity was offset by a 7.2% decline in average prices (unit value), which fell from $831/MT to $772/MT, suggesting lower prices per unit across many commodities. Depending on prices, the upward revision in the export forecast could be justified despite current trade tensions (USDA, 2025b). 

Assuming fourth-quarter imports in FY2025 will follow patterns seen in recent years, available data suggest that total imports could reach $223 billion. This supports the decision to hold the official import forecast steady at $220 billion given the small $3 billion difference (USDA, 2025b). If ongoing trade tensions continue, it would not be surprising if actual imports were lower than $220 billion. 

Figure 1. U.S. Agricultural Imports: FY2021-FY2025

Table 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports: FY2024 and FY2025 (year-to-date: October – June)

Exports	Oct. – June 2024	Oct. – June 2025	% Change
Value ($ billion)	$135.0	$135.7	0.6%
Quantity (MMT)	162.4	175.9	8.3%
Unit Value ($/MT)	$831.1	$771.5	-7.2%

Reference

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2025a. Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2025. https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-08/AES-133.pdf

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2025b. Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS). Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, D.C. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/GATS/default.aspx

Ingwersen, Julie and Leah Douglas. 2025. “USDA redaction of trade analysis causes concern about report integrity” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/usda-redaction-trade-analysis-causes-concern-about-report-integrity-2025-06-06/

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Muhammad, Andrew. “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade in 2025: Exploring the Recent August Forecasts.” Southern Ag Today 5(36.4). September 4, 2025. Permalink