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  • Cull Cow Prices See Just a Little Seasonal Decline

    Cull Cow Prices See Just a Little Seasonal Decline

    Cull cow prices typically decline this time of the year as beef and dairy cow culling ramp up and the beef market is fully past grilling season.  Cow prices this Fall have shown just a little seasonal decline as tight beef supplies keep prices high.

    Southern Plains cow prices at auctions have been about $165 per cwt since mid-year, with a brief dip into the low $150s in the last 2 weeks.  Prices a year ago at this time were under $120 per cwt. and were declining to their Fall lows.  Cutter quality cows have declined from about $137 to about $129 per cwt over the last few weeks, showing a little more seasonal decline.  On the meat side, the boxed cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean boneless beef have shown little seasonal decline and are sitting at record levels.

    Total cow slaughter includes dairy and beef cows.  Beef and dairy cow slaughter each exhibit a different seasonality based on production patterns.  Beef cow slaughter hits its peak in the Fall when most culling occurs around the country.  Dairy cow slaughter peaks early in the first quarter of the year but, does increase in the Fall.  The dairy herd has been expanding this year due to profits hitting over 9.5 million head on September 1, 2025, the most since 1993.  As the herd has grown, culling has increased.  For the year, total dairy cow slaughter is almost 19 percent smaller than the same period in 2024.  But, in the last 2 months dairy cow slaughter is equal to last year.  Beef cow slaughter remains well below last year but may begin to pick up seasonally in coming weeks.  In total, cow culling has closed the gap compared to last year in recent weeks but, it has not been enough to weaken prices.  

    Cull cow prices are going to stay high.  While a little more beef cow culling should occur this Fall even with larger dairy cow culling it won’t be enough to drastically boost supplies.  There is little evidence of consumers switching to competing meats indicating that demand remains quite good.  So, overall, this should be the best Fall cull cow market ever.

    Anderson, David. “Cull Cow Prices See Just a Little Seasonal Decline.” Southern Ag Today 5(41.2). October 7, 2025. Permalink

  • Three Considerations When Comparing the Cost of Buying Bred Heifers to the Cost of Developing Them

    Three Considerations When Comparing the Cost of Buying Bred Heifers to the Cost of Developing Them

    As we roll through fall, spring-born calves will be weaned and many of those heifer calves will be held for replacement purposes. At the same time, a large number of bred heifers will hit the market and be available for the same purpose. It is not uncommon for someone to comment on how expensive bred heifers are and assume that they can develop their own heifers for much less. While this is true in some cases, I also think it is easy to underestimate some of those costs. The purpose of this article is to briefly highlight three things that are crucial to consider when a cow-calf operator tries to make this comparison. And I would argue these are even more significant given the strength of the current cattle market.

    The opportunity cost is the biggest cost

    I hope this one is obvious, but the largest cost of developing a heifer is the opportunity cost of that heifer at weaning. High quality weaned heifers, in the 500-600 lb range, are bringing $2,000 and higher across most US markets. Whatever those heifer calves are worth in the marketplace is the first cost of heifer development. By not selling that heifer calf, one is forgoing that income. This cost is huge right now due to the strength of the calf market and higher interest rates, which makes forgoing that income even more significant. While the heifer herself is the easiest opportunity cost to quantify, this applies to all the costs of developing her (feed, pasture, breeding, facilities, labor, etc.). 

    They won’t all make the cut

    After the initial cost of not selling the heifer at weaning, another year of expenses will be incurred to get that heifer to the same stage as those bred heifers on the marketplace. She will be carried through a full winter and summer grazing season and be bred to calve the following year. There are significant costs in doing this, but it is also important to understand that not all those heifers are going to end up being kept for breeding. Some will fail to breed, and others will simply not meet the expectations of the farmer. Heifers not kept for breeding will end up being sold as feeders and likely won’t cover all those expenses. The “loss” on these heifers becomes an additional cost of the heifers that do enter the cow herd as replacements.

    Next year’s calf should be very profitable

    This is another one that doesn’t get much attention but really matters in a time like the present. It’s easier to think about this one applied to a specific timeline so I will frame it for a heifer born this spring. A heifer calf weaned in the fall 2025, kept for replacement purposes and bred in 2026, won’t wean her first calf until fall of 2027. Conversely, those bred heifers on the market in fall of 2025 should wean their first calf in 2026. While nothing is guaranteed in the cattle markets, fundamentals suggest that 2026 should be a profitable year for cow-calf operations. The potential profit on that calf in 2026 becomes capitalized in the value of those bred heifers in 2025. For this reason, comparing the cost of a bred heifer in fall 2025 to the cost of developing a heifer weaned in fall of 2025, can be misleading.

    The purpose of this article was not to suggest that either replacement strategy was best. There is merit in both approaches, and it largely comes down to the goals of the operator. While I am an economist, I also recognize there are a lot of non-economic considerations that come into play. But the economics of the decision is complex, and carefully thinking through all aspects of the decision is likely time well spent.

    Burdine, Kenny. “Three Considerations When Comparing the Cost of Buying Bred Heifers to the Cost of Developing Them.” Southern Ag Today 5(41.1). October 6, 2025. Permalink

  • Farm Financial Stress and Suicide Risk: Red Flags Every Community Should Know

    Farm Financial Stress and Suicide Risk: Red Flags Every Community Should Know

    Farming is more than a job; it’s an identity, a calling, and a generational promise. Yet, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that many farmers are reaching their breaking point due to many stressors.

    Farmers face risk through rising input costs, low commodity prices, new tariffs, shrinking margins, labor shortages, and unpredictable weather. For the 12-month period ending June 30, 2025, there were 282 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings in the U.S. The Southern region alone accounted for 101, or 35.8% of those filings. Compared to the prior 12-month period (July 2023 to June 2024), this is a 55.8% increase nationally and a 68.3% increase in the South. These statistics reflect more than financial struggles; they reveal livelihood, farming legacies, and farmland at the risk of a loss. When the future of the farm feels threatened, stress can sink into despair and take a serious toll on mental health. Too often, farmers cope in silence, pushing through the work while avoiding honest conversations with family, friends, or professionals about the financial stress they’re carrying.

    Studies confirm this reality of coping in silence. Fear of being judged and shame keep many farmers from reaching out for mental health support. Although the stigma around seeking help has eased slightly in recent years, it continues to prevent many from getting the care they need. A 2019-2021 AFBF study found an 11% drop in farmers and farm workers who see the stigma as a barrier, yet 61% still report it as an obstacle. Research also shows gender differences: women farmers report depressive symptoms up to four times higher than men, while male farmers face a suicide risk 50% greater than men in other occupations. In short, male farmers die by suicide at higher rates, while women farmers experience higher rates of ongoing depression, highlighting the elevated financial stress across agriculture.

    A recent Center for Disease Control (CDC) study further underscores the risk. CDC reports that farmer suicide rates are 3.5 times higher than the national average. Rural isolation and the stigma of seeking help for mental health, combined with access to firearms and toxic farm chemicals, makes a crisis especially dangerous. When financial stress runs this deep, it shows up in words, actions, and farm operations. Some of the common red flags to watch for:

    • Verbal cues: “I can’t afford to feed my cows,” “I am a failure.”
    • Behavioral changes: Social withdrawal, uncharacteristic anger, neglecting bills or chores.
    • Farm operation clues: Missed planting or harvest windows, sudden downsizing without a plan, neglected livestock.
    • Emotional/physical changes: Persistent hopelessness, sleep or eating changes, unexplained aches.

    Every farmer faces difficult choices. But nobody should shoulder these burdens alone. Support can start close to home with a trusted pastor, church member, Extension agent, or counselor/therapist. Community also plays a vital role: peer support, connection, and resources can save lives. By checking in, listening without judgment, and normalizing conversations about financial stress, we can recognize red flags early, save lives, and help farm families build a sustainable future. A recent University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture publication, Identifying Financial Stress in Farmers and Ranchers: A Guide for Families, Friends, and Agricultural Community Stakeholders, highlights practical ways communities can recognize red flags of distress before a crisis unfolds. 

    If red flags persist, seek support: 

    • Suicide & Crisis Lifeline: 988
    • AgriStress Helpline: 1-833-897-2474
    • Farm Aid: 1-800-327-6243

    Cooperative Extension Services across the United States provide suicide prevention training, often using evidence-based programs like QPR (Question, Persuade, Refer). Many Extension systems also offer mental health resources directly or can connect families to local providers. In addition, the Farm and Ranch Stress Assistance Network (FRSAN) is a national resource offering farm stress and mental health support, with tools designed specifically for agricultural communities. For more information, visit: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-congressional-relations/office-external-and-intergovernmental-affairs/center-faith/farm-stress-and-mental-health-resources

    References

    American Farm Bureau Federation. (2021, December). Farmer and rural perceptions of Mental Health. Farmer and Rural  Perceptions of Mental  Health. https://www.fb.org/files/Farmer_and_Rural_Mental_Health_AFBF.pdf

    American Farm Bureau Federation Staff. “Modern farmer: Farmers face a mental health crisis. Talking to others in the industry can help.” American Farm Bureau Federation.  https://www.fb.org/in-the-news/modern-farmer-farmers-face-a-mental-health-crisis-talking-to-others-in-the-industry-can-help. June 24, 2024.

    Fields, Erica Barnes, and Rainey, Rainey. “Identifying Financial Stress in Farmers and Ranchers: A Guide for Families, Friends, and Agricultural Community Stakeholders.” University of Arkansas Factsheet. Retrieved from: https://www.uaex.uada.edu/publications/pdf/FSA96.pdf 

    Loy, Ryan, Fields, Erica Barnes, and Rainey, Ronald. “Tracking Chapter 12 Bankruptcies in the South: 2015 – 2025 Trends and Identifying On-Farm Stress.” Southern Ag Today 5(37. l). September 8, 2025. Permalink  

    Sussell A, Peterson C, Li J, Miniño A, Scott KA, Stone DM. Suicide Rates by Industry and Occupation — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2021 . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023;72:1346–1350. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7250a2 Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7250a2.htm#suggestedcitation

    United States Courts. (2025). Caseload Statistics Data Tables. Retrieved from: https://www.uscourts.gov/statistics-reports/caseload-statistics-data-tables

    Fields, Erica Barnes, Ryan Loy, and Ronald Rainey. “Farm Financial Stress and Suicide Risk: Red Flags Every Community Should Know.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.5). October 3, 2025. Permalink

  • China’s Agricultural Imports from U.S. and Brazil Decline in 2025 – But the U.S. Faces Sharper Losses

    China’s Agricultural Imports from U.S. and Brazil Decline in 2025 – But the U.S. Faces Sharper Losses

    The decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China has made headlines, most notably due to China’s decision not to purchase U.S. soybeans this season. Soybeans are the largest agricultural export for the United States, and China has traditionally been the top foreign buyer of U.S. soybeans, making this shift particularly significant for American producers. While stories have been mostly about declines in U.S. exports to China, it is important to note that China’s agricultural imports—including related products like forestry, biodiesel, and seafood—are down overall in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting a broader contraction in trade. 

    Figure 1 shows China’s total agricultural imports from global sources, including the United States and Brazil. Overall, total imports declined in 2025 compared to 2024, with the most significant drop occurring during the first half of the year. For example, imports in January 2025 fell to approximately $18 billion, down from $22 billion in January 2024. A year-to-date comparison (January–August) shows total imports decreased from $157 billion in 2024 to $145 billion in 2025, a reduction of $12.1 billion, or 7.5%. In terms of quantity or volume, the decline was even steeper—nearly 12% (Trade Data Monitor®, 2025), suggesting that lower import values were not solely driven by price changes but also by reduced quantities.

    Although China’s agricultural imports declined overall, imports from the United States experienced a sharper and more sustained drop, beginning later in the year. In January 2025, imports from the U.S. were down by only $220 million compared to the previous year, and in February, they were up by nearly $600 million. However, starting in March, imports consistently fell below 2024 levels. By August, year-to-date China’s imports of U.S. agriculture and related products had dropped from $20 billion in 2024 to $14 billion in 2025, a decline of more than $5 billion, or 27.5%.

    Brazil also experienced a decrease in agricultural export sales to China in 2025, though the decline was less severe than that of the United States. As of August 2025, imports from Brazil fell from $36.7 billion in 2024 to $31.2 billion, representing a 15.0% decrease. Month-to-month comparisons show sharper early-year declines: imports were down 51% in January, 43% in February, and 53% in March compared to the same months in 2024. However, beginning in May 2025, import levels from Brazil became more comparable to the previous year and even exceeded 2024 figures in some months. This mid-year rebound suggests that Brazil is benefiting from seasonal demand as well as favorable trade conditions.

    Figure 1. China’s total agricultural imports from the World, United States, and Brazil: January 2024 – August 2025  

    Note: Agricultural import values include related products like forestry, biodiesel, and seafood.
    Source: Trade Data Monitor® (2025)
     

    Reference

    Trade Data Monitor®. (2025). Retrieved from https://www.tradedatamonitor.com

    Muhammad, Andrew. “China’s Agricultural Imports from U.S. and Brazil Decline in 2025 – But the U.S. Faces Sharper Losses.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.4). October 2, 2025. Permalink

  • 2025/26 Rice Market Outlook

    2025/26 Rice Market Outlook

    U.S. Production and Harvest Acres

    The 2025 planting season was marked by considerable challenges. Farmers in the Midsouth faced historical flooding in April that forced replanting across a significant portion of the Mississippi delta region. As farmers put planting behind them, the growing season brought extreme heat and a prolonged drought. In contrast, California experienced a relatively normal year with ideal planting temperatures and no surface water allocation issues (USA Rice, 2025).  Even with California’s improved season, the production setbacks in the Mississippi delta region offset those gains, and, as a result, U.S. rice production is expected to decline roughly 10 million cwt from 2024 levels, falling to 208.8 million cwt in 2025 (Figure 1). Over the past decade, production has fluctuated between 160 and 230 million cwt, with acreage shifting between 2 – 3 million acres. Peaks in 2016, 2018, and 2020 reflect the typical crop rotation across the midsouth. However, with high input costs and weaker rice prices, 2022 marked a contraction in production at 160 million cwt. Production has since recovered, due in part to more favorable returns for a rice crop compared to other Midsouth commodities such as corn or cotton.  

    Figure 1. U.S. All Rice-Class Production and Acres Harvested (2015 – 2025F)

    Source: USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 2025

    The September 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecasts a 35% year-over-year increase in all rice-class beginning stocks. This increase in beginning stocks is almost entirely driven by the 93% year-over-year increase for long grain, the result of record yields across the southern region in 2024, with Arkansas averaging 169.8 bu/acre (UADA-CES, 2025). On the other hand, medium grain is forecasted to fall by 27.5%. The current outlook is for a slight rise in overall exports and a relatively minor decrease (~0.9%) in ending stocks relative to 2024/25 (USDA-AMS, 2025). Ending stocks are currently forecasted at 53.4 million cwt, compared to 2024/45, which was 53.9 million cwt. The USDA anticipates long-grain rice exports will reach 64 million cwt, a level that hinges on maintaining price competitiveness in global markets. As a result, farm prices for long-grain rice are forecast to decline to $12.00/cwt, while the prices for Southern medium & short-grain rice are forecast at $12.50/cwt (Figure 2). These expectations represent a severe decline from the 2024/25 marketing year, with long grain and Southern medium & short grain prices falling 14% and 18%, respectively. It’s worth noting that the effective reference price has increased from $14.00/cwt to $16.90/cwt for the 2025/26 marketing year (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 2025). Figure 2 highlights this change, showing that current forecasts indicate a possible PLC payment under the new effective reference price. 

    Figure 2. Rice Marketing Year Average Farm Prices (2021/22 – 2025/26F)

    Source: USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 2025

    Figure 3 highlights a modest increase in exports across major rice-supplying countries. However, global rice prices have trended downward throughout 2025, primarily due to weaker global demand, India resuming rice exports, much lower import demand from Indonesia, and a temporary ban on rice imports in the Philippines, which is expected to lift in November (USDA-FAS, 2025). U.S. long-grain rice is currently priced around $585/ton[1], which represents the most expensive rice on the world market. In contrast, India, Pakistan, and Thailand are all competing for the cheapest rice on the market, priced at around $360/ton. The broad decline in the world rice price has been from India’s decision to lift its rice export ban in September 2024. Nearly a year later, Indian exports continue to exert downward pressure on international markets.

    Figure 3. Milled Rice Exports (2021/22 – 2025/26Sept)

    Source: USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), 2025

    [1] This price reflects #2, 4-percent brokens, sacked FOB, Gulf Coast (Childs and Abadam, 2025)

    References

    Childs, N., and Abadam, V. (2025). Rice Outlook: September 2025 (Report No. RCS-25H). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/dn39x152w/j9604180m/w0894b61f/RCS-25H.pdf

    University of Arkansas – Cooperative Extension Service. (2025). Rice Production in Arkansas. Division of Agriculture. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://www.uaex.uada.edu/farm-ranch/crops-commercial-horticulture/rice/#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20Arkansas%20rice%20producers,lb%2Facre)%20in%202021.

    United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. (2025). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-664). Retrieved September 15, 2025, from, https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0925.pdf

    United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service – PSD Reports. (2025). World Rice Trade. Retrieved September 12, 2025, from, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

    United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. (2025). Rice Production and Acres Harvested. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/

    USA Rice. (2025). Spring Planting Report. Retrieved September 2025, from, https://www.usarice.com/news-and-events/publications/usa-rice-daily/article/usa-rice-daily/2025/04/25/spring-planting-report

    Loy, Ryan, and Alvaro Durand-Morat. “2025/26 Rice Market Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(40.3). October 1, 2025. Permalink