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  • Post-Emergent Dicamba Likely Unavailable in 2025, Controversial Beyond Then

    Post-Emergent Dicamba Likely Unavailable in 2025, Controversial Beyond Then

    In February, a federal district court in Arizona vacated the only three post-emergent formulations of dicamba on the marketplace, marking the second time post-emergent dicamba registrations were vacated since their 2017 commercialization.  When the EPA subsequently clarified that existing stocks of post-emergent dicamba could be used in 2024, all eyes promptly turned to what would be available in 2025.

    The court opinion noted that the EPA failed in its 2020 registrations of post-emergent dicamba to provide a public notice and comment period.  To avoid a third potential vacatur of registrations, the EPA required a public notice and comment period, which in prior registration efforts signaled the start of a 17-month countdown to approval.  

    However, there has been a growing trend of courts scrutinizing and even vacating other pesticide registrations when the EPA failed to comply with requirements associated with the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in addition to requirements associated with the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA).  Combining the potential need for an ESA consultation with the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) with agency funding issues, it is ambitious to hope that the EPA will meet the 17-month approval timeframe on the undergoing post-emergent dicamba registrations before the 2025 planting and growing seasons.

    Commentators on both sides of the dicamba debate have already started making their voices heard.  The public comment period for Bayer’s XtendiMax, BASF’s Engenia, and Syngenta’s Tavium generated over 27,000 comments in total.

    Advocates of post-emergent dicamba products were dismayed by the XtendiMax label not having any on-label uses for post-emergent soybeans.  XtendiMax for cotton allowed applications through June 30.  There was also concern that the labels for Tavium and Engenia only permitted over-the-top (OTT) applications through June 12 or until the crop reaches the V2 growth stage, with comments noting that the plants are still very small at that stage.  

    It is worth noting that, though the 2020 registrations of post-emergent dicamba products were vacated, the EPA’s new position that precludes state agency restrictions on pesticides through Section 24(c) of FIFRA is still maintained on the EPA’s website.  In other words, barring state action through Section 24(a), the EPA will still be the entity responsible for setting restrictions such as application cutoff dates.

    Critics of post-emergent dicamba once again expressed their frustration that the EPA was in the process of re-registering the herbicide.  These individuals and groups have repeated their calls that the product was inherently dangerous and stated that the new formulations were no different than previous products that had been taken off the market.  

    If post-emergent dicamba is not approved for use by the 2025 growing season, there is also a fear that a repeat of the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons will occur.  In 2015 and 2016, the USDA had approved dicamba-tolerant seeds but the EPA was still undergoing the registration process for post-emergent versions of dicamba.  Despite this, dicamba drift symptoms started to occur throughout the nation, leading many to speculate that some producers had used pre-emergent dicamba in an off-label use for post-emergent applications.  


    Brown, Nicholas. “Post-Emergent Dicamba Likely Unavailable in 2025, Controversial Beyond Then.” Southern Ag Today 4(42.5). October 18, 2024. Permalink

  • Increase in Cost of Production Contributing to Trade Deficit

    Increase in Cost of Production Contributing to Trade Deficit

    In previous Southern Ag Today articles, the rising agricultural trade deficit was reported.  The latest USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report (August), forecast a $30.5 billion trade deficit for FY 2024 with exports at $173.5 billion and imports at $204 billion (Kenner et al., 2024).  Moreover, for FY 2025, USDA forecast an even larger trade deficit at $42.5 billion with exports at $169.5 billion and imports at $212 billion. As mentioned in previous articles, when we measure trade in volume the U.S. enjoys a 3.2 export to import ratio over the last 10 years, meaning that the U.S. exports more than three times the volume that we import.  The reason is that we tend to export products that are sold in bulk, such as soybeans, corn and wheat and we import more high value agricultural and food products such as beer, wine, spirits and fresh fruits and vegetables.

    One of the main contributors to the loss of competitiveness of U.S. agricultural products in the international arena is the increase of cost of production. Figure 1 shows how the cost of farm inputs has risen in recent years. In 2018, U.S. farmers spent a total of $354 billion on inputs, however, by 2023 farmers spent $481.9 billion, an increase of 36 percent. Southern states (categorized by the USDA to include Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina) together saw farm inputs rise 37.65% over this time. The inputs purchased by these seven states accounted for 10.4 percent of the total for the United States.  Texas, grouped into the Plains region, accounted for 6.35 percent of the U.S. total. Of the southern states, Florida experienced the highest rise in cost of inputs during this time, increasing 58.65 percent from 2018 to 2023. 


    Ribera, Luis, and Landyn Young. “Increase in Cost of Production Contributing to Trade Deficit.” Southern Ag Today 4(42.4). October 17, 2024. Permalink

  • Recap of the October WASDE for Grains and Soybeans

    Recap of the October WASDE for Grains and Soybeans

    Updates in the October 2024 WASDE continued the overall fundamental market conditions in grains and soybeans (Table 1). Compared to the 2023/2024 marketing year, the factors of supply are increasing more than the factors of demand in 2024/2025. That results in an increase in the stocks-to-use ratio, measured here as estimated days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year [= ending stocks divided by (total use divided by 365)].  The days of use on hand measures how long we could get by next year on the crop that is left over from this year.  An increase in the number of days of use on hand indicates a larger supply cushion in case of a production shortfall, which puts downward pressure on prices. 

      Table 1. WASDE: U.S. Supply and Demand

    Focusing more specifically on each commodity:

    Corn. USDA increased the national average corn yield this month from 183.6 bushels per acre in September to 183.8, an all-time record high. The biggest changes to the supply and demand balance sheet came from increases in use in old crop, lowering the beginning stock number for the 2024/25 marketing year by 52 million bushels. Domestic use categories in new crop corn were unchanged, but USDA increased exports by 25 million bushels. 

    World corn ending stocks were down slightly as the 1.6 million metric ton (mmt) increase in supply was exceeded by a 3.5 mmt increase in use. 

    While the supply and demand numbers for corn were mostly neutral, the increase in use is a bullish sign. 

    Wheat. The numbers for wheat in the October WASDE reflect crop information in the September Small Grains Summary: a small decrease in planted acres and yield. These changes lowered production slightly but were largely offset by an increase in imports.  The only change in use was an increase of 10 million bushels for feed.  

    Only minor changes were made to estimates of world wheat supply and demand: supply down 1.9 mmt; use down 2.4 mmt; and ending stocks up 0.5 mmt.  

    The report was slightly bullish for U.S. wheat with a small decrease in estimated ending stocks and a reduction in the days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year, down from a 154-day supply last month to 150. But the U.S. only accounts for 7% of the world wheat supply. The stocks-to-use ratio for world wheat this month was higher.   

    Rice. Rice numbers were little changed this month, with a small increase in yield increasing supply and ending stocks. 

    World rice production is up 3.1 mmt this month primarily due to an increase in India. The largest rice exporter in the world, India’s rice exports increased from 18.0 mmt last month to 21.0 mmt. This is the second highest rice export number for India, just below the record 22.0 mmt in 2021/2022.  

    The report was neutral for U.S. rice supply and demand but bearish overall given the increase in foreign rice production with little change in use. 

    Soybeans. The national average soybean yield was lowered by 1/10th of a bushel to 53.1, still a record high. Along with this small change in production was a small increase in beginning stocks and small decrease in use. Ending stocks were unchanged. 

    The world soybean balance sheet was mostly unchanged: supply down 0.2 mmt; use down 0.3 mmt; and ending stocks up 0.1 mmt.

    With virtually no changes to U.S. or world supply and demand numbers, the October WASDE was fundamentally neutral for soybeans. 


    Welch, J. Mark. “Recap of the October WASDE for Grains and Soybeans.
    Southern Ag Today 4(42.3). October 16, 2024. Permalink

  • Almost Time to Think Turkey

    Almost Time to Think Turkey

    We are six weeks away from 2024 Thanksgiving but it’s not too early to think about the meals that may include turkey. Here is some pertinent turkey information as we are preparing for the end of the year celebrations. One of the first considerations is production, a key part of turkey supplies. The 2024 federally inspected turkey production (weekly), is shown in Figure 1. Year to date, turkey production is running 3.29% below 2023 levels and 6.44% less than the five-year average (2018 – 2022). While lower production is usually a cause for price concerns, that is not likely to be the case this year as turkey prices have remained lower than 2023 throughout 2024.

    Turkey in storage is another important consideration in turkey supplies for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. As seen in the in Figure 1, turkey processing occurs throughout the year with an increase in late October and early November. Cold storage is important in managing the supply of turkeys and to ensure that adequate supplies are available for the end of the year demand. Figure 2 indicates that all turkey in cold storage for 2024 is 2.1 percent higher than in 2023, but 8.9 percent less than the 2018 -2022 average. Digging a little deeper in the cold storage data indicates that while there are 1.1 percent fewer tom turkeys, whole hens in cold storage are up 4.4 percent.  

    With 2024 turkey production running only slightly lower than last year’s production and quantities of frozen turkey in cold storage above 2023 levels, what will that mean for turkey prices in 2024?  The 2024 fourth quarter wholesale price projection for an 8 – 16 pound frozen turkey hen is forecast to be $0.95 cents per pound, wholesale. This is 5.75 % less than 2023 prices ($1.01) and 47% less than fourth quarter prices ($1.78 ) in 2022. Like usual, there will be plenty of turkeys for Thanksgiving dinner.  But, you might look for deals and specials and shop early to make sure you get just the right bird for your holiday table. In conclusion, it’s looks to be a good year to enjoy turkeys for the holidays.  

  • When is an Hour of Operator Labor, Not Just an Hour of Operator Labor?

    When is an Hour of Operator Labor, Not Just an Hour of Operator Labor?

    As an Extension Economist, I regularly have the opportunity to talk about cow-calf profitability. I usually start with revenues, talking about calf prices and making assumptions about weaning weight and weaning rate. Then I walk through costs like winter feed (hay), pasture maintenance, breeding, vet/medicine, trucking, sale expenses, etc. While there is always room for discussion, most of these expenses can be estimated on a “per cow” basis by making some reasonable assumptions. At some point in the discussion, I bring up the topic of labor. Some cow-calf operations hire a significant amount of labor, but for a lot of these operations, the majority of labor is unpaid operator labor.

    The classic economist approach to valuing unpaid labor is to value it at its opportunity cost. By that, I mean if the farmer could be making $20 per hour doing something else, their labor on the farm should be valued at $20 per hour and be treated as an expense. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with this logic, but it is also not the way that most farmers think about the value of their time. For this reason, I tend not to treat labor as an expense but instead make the point that any return must be sufficient to adequately compensate the operator for the time they spend. This allows each individual in the room to evaluate whether that return is sufficient and place whatever value they feel is appropriate on their time.

    One danger of this approach is that it may encourage ignoring other expenses that often accompany operator labor. To illustrate this, consider two very different operator labor hours – an hour spent manually clearing fence rows and an hour spent on a tractor baling hay. A producer clearing fence rows may be using a set of loppers to cut small saplings, they may have a smaller set of clippers for briars and weeds, and they may even have a chainsaw they use on occasion when needed. An overly eager economist could talk about depreciation on that chainsaw and the other equipment, as well as the fuel being used when the chainsaw is operating, but clearly, these costs are pretty minimal. The point here is that the vast majority of the cost associated with an hour clearing fence rows is time.

    On the contrary, time is a much smaller portion of the total cost of an hour spent baling hay. Beyond the hour of labor, the producer baling hay is running both a tractor and hay baler. Fuel costs are much more significant, as is depreciation on both pieces of equipment. The same can be said of maintenance and repairs associated with the additional use of the equipment. Choosing not to place a value on an hour spent clearing fences is one thing, but not placing a value on time spent baling hay is very different. Obviously, I am describing two extremes here, but hopefully, it helps to illustrate the point I am making. Sometimes an hour of operator labor is not just an hour of operator labor, especially if there are a lot of other expenses being incurred during that hour.

    My experience has been that most farmers prefer time spent running machinery over time spent doing more manual labor. In fact, many producers would readily trade manual labor hours for more machinery hours. Cleaning out fence rows on a hot day is tough work, but the expense beyond the value of the time spent is minimal. Conversely, that same hour spent baling hay comes with a lot of additional expenses beyond the value of that time. The point is that choosing not to value operator labor is the choice of the farmer, but that farmer still needs to make sure they are valuing other costs incurred during those operator labor hours. Failing to do so has the potential to greatly underestimate the total costs for the operation.


    Burdine, Kenny. “When is an Hour of Operator Labor, Not Just an Hour of Operator Labor?Southern Ag Today 4(42.1). October 14, 2024. Permalink