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  • National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Receipts Higher to Start 2023

    National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Receipts Higher to Start 2023

    The number of feeder and stocker cattle sold during the first four months of 2023 was about four percent higher than during the same period in 2022 according to data from the USDA-AMS National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.  Strong prices, persistent drought in some regions, and the timing of wheat pasture cattle movement likely contributed to these higher totals despite the smaller calf crop in 2022. 

    Shown in the chart above, receipts have generally followed the seasonal pattern of declining sales through the first four months. This dataset includes auction, direct, and video/internet sales that are reported to USDA. It does not capture all feeder and stocker cattle transactions and the report notes that “receipts vary depending on the number of auctions reported” – but comparisons over time can be informative when considering current market dynamics to previous years.  

    On the surface, the stronger receipts totals are at odds with the 2 percent smaller calf crop in 2022 than in 2021. However, the data are most likely indicating market timing differences instead of changes in total cattle inventory. Cattle prices have been significantly stronger this year as compared to a year ago and drought continues to be a key issue in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and other areas which is limiting grazing opportunities. These factors have likely led to more cattle moving into feedlots or grow yards earlier than normal. Compared to the 5-year average from 2017-2021, receipts are one percent lower so far in 2023.

    The report also gives information about the mix of steers and heifers and weight ranges and suggests slightly fewer heifers and lighter cattle have been sold this year.  Heifers represented 40.9 percent of the stocker and feeder cattle sold during the first 4 months of 2023. This is about one percentage point lower than in 2022. The percent of cattle sold weighing above 600 pounds is also lower at 72.6 percent compared to 73.9 percent a year ago.

    Looking ahead, auction receipts will increase seasonally as summer arrives. However, overall supplies this year are expected to be smaller. The estimate of the expected calf crop for 2023 will be released on July 21st as part of the mid-year USDA Cattle Inventory report.

    Maples, Josh. “National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Receipts Higher to Start 2023.” Southern Ag Today 3(19.2). May 9, 2023. Permalink

    Photo by Mark Stebnicki: https://www.pexels.com/photo/brown-cattle-2253553/

  • The Importance of Corn Production in the South to the U.S. Corn Supply

    The Importance of Corn Production in the South to the U.S. Corn Supply

    USDA’s Prospective Plantings report on March 31 showed U.S. farmers intend to increase corn acres from 88.6 million in 2022 to 92.0 million in 2023. Of the 3.4-million-acre national increase, 865,000 acres or about 25%, are in the South: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.   Of these 13 states, 10 show increases of 10 percent or more (Figure 1). Only Texas and Florida show a decrease in corn acres year to year.  One influence for an increase in corn across the South in 2023 was that the harvest futures price of corn this winter and early spring was high relative to the harvest futures price of cotton. The 10 states with an increase in corn acres decreased cotton acres by 789,000.  Texas farmers indicated they intend to plant 100,000 fewer acres of corn, 1.650 million fewer acres of cotton but 1.4 million more acres of wheat and increase hay harvested area by 610,000 acres.  

    The South planted 9.370 million acres of corn in 2022. The prospective plantings survey showed intentions to plant 10.235 million in 2023.

    Figure 1. 2023 Corn Planted Acreage, “Prospective Plantings”

    (USDA, NASS, 2023a)

    In 2000, the average corn yield in the South was 120.8 bushels per acre compared to 136.9 bushels per acre nationally. Since that time, corn yield increases in the South have kept pace with the rate of corn yield increases nationally, both about 1.8 bushels per year (Figure 2). Notable is the greater degree in yield variability in the South compared to the national average.  In the 23 years since 2000, corn yields in the South have been above or below the trendline yield by more than 10% seven times: -14%, 2002; +11 %, 2004; -15%, 2011; -12%, 2012; +13%, 2013; +11%, 2014; -11%, 2022. The national corn yield has only been above or below trend by 10% or more twice in that same period of time: +11% in 2004; -22% in 2012.

    Figure 2. Corn Yields: South and U.S. with trendlines and projections to 2023 (bushels r acre)

    USDA, NASS, 2023c

    Trendline yield growth in 11 southern states has exceeded the national average, three below average – NC, OK, and TX (Figure 3). Texas, the state with the largest corn acreage in this region, has essentially had  no change in average yields since 2000. 

    Figure 3. Trendline Yield Increase, 2000 to 2022 (bushels per acre)

    USDA, NASS, 2023c

    Based on the prospective plantings survey, 10-year average percent harvested calculations, and the trendline yield projection, corn production in the South would increase by 308 million bushels in 2023 compared to 2022.  

    Table 1. 2022 Corn Production in the South with Projections for 2023

    *projected

    Since 2000, corn production in the South has averaged 8.9 percent of total U.S. corn production, with a low of 7.5 percent in 2006 to a high of 11.0 percent in 2013 (USDA, NASS, 2023c) (Figure 4). As a share of total U.S. production, corn in the South increases from 8.3 percent in 2022 to 9.7 percent projected for 2023.  This percentage is consistent with the increasing importance of southern corn production to the U.S. corn supply. However, the broad range of growing conditions across the South means yield variability in that supply is more likely year to year.

    Figure 4. South’s Share of U.S. Corn Production

    USDA, NASS, 2023c

    References

    USDA, NASS (a), “Grain Stocks, “Prospective Plantings, Rice Stocks Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing”, March 31, 2023, https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2023/03-31-2023.pdf

    USDA, NASS (b), “Prospective Plantings”, March 31, 2023, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/x633f100h/rv044597v/gx41nz573/pspl0323.pdf

    USDA, NASS (c), Quick Stats, accessed April 18, 2023,  https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.

    Welch, Mark. “The Importance of Corn Production in the South to the U.S. Corn Supply.“ Southern Ag Today 3(19.1). May 8, 2023. Permalink

    Photo by David Dibert: https://www.pexels.com/photo/corn-plantation-during-daytime-5001990/

  • Riding off into the Sunset: State Policies and Contract Provisions That Impact Decommissioning a Solar Facility

    Riding off into the Sunset: State Policies and Contract Provisions That Impact Decommissioning a Solar Facility

    Disclaimer: This article is provided for purely educational purposes, and the reader should check to see if state policy has changed since its posting.  

                The question often asked by landowners considering leasing a portion of their property for solar development is, what happens at the end of the lease?  The answer to this question often depends on current state policy and the decommissioning clause negotiated in the lease.  While this is a rapidly developing topic, we provide a current synopsis of both in the paragraphs that follow. 

    Based on a cursory review of state law – and as summarized in Table 1 – there is a considerable amount of variability across the South.  For example, 6 states require some form of decommissioning plan, with 4 of those also requiring assurance that funds will be available to decommission the solar project at the end of its life.  Another 3 states have legislative action pending and/or have developed a model ordinance for local government (e.g. Georgia).  Finally, 4 states have no statewide decommissioning regulations.  

    With respect to decommissioning clauses negotiated into leases, lease terms often state that the facility will be removed and potentially include a bonding requirement.  Landowners should often consider negotiating a decommissioning clause that considers current state policy plus how to restore the land in the future once the solar facility is removed.

                When presented with a lease for a solar energy facility, landowners should have a clause that deals with decommissioning and cleanup of the site.  Depending on the state, these clauses can either enhance the existing decommissioning policy or dictate how the cleanup process will occur.  The typical lease should require the company to remove all its Solar Facility, including the panels, posts, and concrete pads, and typically remove wiring down to plow depth.  Some leases may go beyond this clause and require the solar company to put up a bond to cover the necessary cleanup costs.  Landowners often request a bond to assist with potential cleanup costs if the solar company defaults on the required cleanup of the facility.  Many state policies related to solar decommissioning also require putting up bonds to cover necessary cleanup costs.  

                As a landowner presented with a solar lease, what should you consider as it relates to decommissioning a solar facility? First, take a moment to consider the location of the facility.  What features exist on that piece of property that need to be restored?  How do you want to see the site restored? Next, negotiate how the site should be restored to allow the land to return to productive agricultural use.  Take photos to demonstrate the current conditions and to give future parties an understanding of what the site initially looked like.  Taking the time to document the land’s condition and negotiate a decommissioning clause that considers state policies at the time will allow for the site to be decommissioned in a way that reduces potential conflicts in the future.

    Table 1.  Summary of State Decommissioning Regulations in the South

    StateDecommissioning RegulationsState Code/Legislative CitationDate Enacted
    AlabamaNo state-wide decommissioning regulations  
    ArkansasNo state-wide decommissioning regulations  
    FloridaNo state-wide decommissioning regulations  
    GeorgiaA model ordinance was developed for local governments  
    KentuckyDecommissioning plan required with financial assurance.Ky. H.B. 4 – 2023 Reg. Sess.30-Mar-23
    LouisianaDecommissioning plan required with financial assurance.La. Rev. Stat. § 30:11542-Aug-22
    MarylandDecommissioning plan required with financial assurance.Md. Code Regs. 27.01.14.048-Mar-21
    MississippiNo state-wide decommissioning regulations  
    North CarolinaLegislative action pending.  
    OklahomaDecommissioning plan required.60 Okla. Stat. § 820.113-Apr-11
    South CarolinaLegislative action pending.  
    TennesseeDecommissioning plan required with financial assurance.Tenn. Code § 66-9-2071-Jun-22
    TexasDecommissioning plan required with financial assurance.Tex. Util. Code § 302.00041-Sep-21
    VirginiaA locality must require a lessee to have a decommissioning planVa. Code Ann. § 15.2-2241.221-Mar-19

    Goeringer’s work is supported by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) program, grant no. 2020-68006-31182/project accession no. 1022637, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture.  Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author. They should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy.

    Goeringer, Paul, and Bart L. Fischer. “Riding off into the Sunset: State Policies and Contract Provisions That Impact Decommissioning a Solar Facility.” Southern Ag Today 3(18.5). May 5, 2023. Permalink

    Image Credit: A herd of cattle grazing near a solar panels by Dzmitry Palubiatka

  • Down the River: How the 2022 Mississippi River Drought Damaged Southern U.S. Agricultural Trade

    Down the River: How the 2022 Mississippi River Drought Damaged Southern U.S. Agricultural Trade

    In 2022, the Mississippi River experienced a severe drought that disrupted barge transportation from the Midwest to ports on the Gulf of Mexico. Our research found that the drought led to a 3.9% reduction in agricultural exports from Louisiana ports, resulting in agricultural trade losses of $563.9 million between July 2022 and January 2023. Wheat exports were the most affected, with a considerable decrease in export volume of 350 million kilograms at Louisiana ports. However, there was limited evidence of adverse trade effects for soybeans and corn.

    While we found some evidence of negative effects on agricultural commodities at the beginning of the Mississippi River drought in 2022, there was a strong trade recovery when transportation disruptions ended. As a result, there was limited diversion for affected commodities except for wheat, which was diverted to East and West coast ports.

    Figure 1 shows that non-Louisiana Gulf ports experienced more pronounced trade disruptions (‑15.1%) than Louisiana ports (-3.9%), despite Louisiana ports accounting for over 86% of agricultural exports shipped through Gulf ports. Our study also found evidence of considerable trade diversion, with positive trade effects for East coast (5.8%) and West coast ports (7.1%). These estimates imply that some agricultural suppliers opted for alternative transportation modes to facilitate foreign shipments via ports on the East and West coasts.

    Our research highlights the urgent need to mitigate the impact of natural disasters and supply chain disruptions on barge-dependent agricultural exports, especially on the Mississippi River. While various federal and state agencies offer direct relief and recovery support for drought impacts, a more comprehensive plan may be necessary to address this potential long-term issue. The lack of tools to deal with similar supply chain disruptions can limit the production capacity of agricultural farmers and their access to foreign markets.

    While the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law has authorized up to $108 billion to support federal public transportation programs, including barge transportation on the Mississippi River, it may take time for these solutions to take effect, and the federal funding allocation for barge shipping remains unclear. It is crucial to enhance the availability and efficiency of alternative transportation options. Our study underscores the importance of adopting proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate-induced trade disruptions on U.S. agriculture.

    Figure 1: Agricultural Trade Effects of the 2022 Mississippi River Drought.

    Note. The figure shows the average post-event trade effects of the 2022 Mississippi River Drought for export volume and unit value by U.S. port region. All regressions include port-destination-good-event-year and port-destination-good-event-month fixed effects. The “Louisiana” label denotes ports within the state of Louisiana, while “Gulf” encompasses Gulf ports, excluding those in Louisiana. The “East” category includes ports in the South Atlantic and New England customs divisions, and the “West” category includes those ports from the Pacific customs divisions.

    *This work was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture through the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Award 2019-67023-29343. This paper does not necessarily reflect the views of USDA. Full paper is available here: https://tinyurl.com/yn76tw3w.

    Steinbach, Sabdro, and Xiting Zhuang. “Down the River: How the 2022 Mississippi River Drought Damaged.” Southern Ag Today 3(18.4). May 4, 2023. Permalink

    Photo by Tom Fisk: https://www.pexels.com/photo/barge-on-the-mississippi-river-13649457/

  • Mobile Apps in Farm Management

    Mobile Apps in Farm Management

    Have you ever found yourself wishing there was an app for something while using your smartphone? You’re not the only one. The development of mobile apps for various needs is happening at a rapid pace. Why? According to comScore, 89% of all mobile minutes are spent on mobile apps. The top two categories for mobile app users are social media and news/information. In agriculture, there are mobile apps available that deal with an array of topics. CropLife puts out a list of the best agriculture apps every year. The majority of those mobile apps, and the most popular, are often agronomic or weather related. In the economic space, most of the available apps provide pricing information for marketing.  However, there are a host of available apps that can assist with farm management.

    I often get asked, “What is the best farm management app out there?” My colleague had the best answer to that question, “the best farm management app for farmers is the one that you will actually use!” Each app serves a different purpose and provides a different user experience.  We’ve recently created an extension publication that outlines all of the mobile apps we could find that help farm management and their availability on Apple or Google smartphones (publication found here). If you want a more detailed description of each app, you can find it here. I encourage you to download several apps and try them to see which works best for your specific situation or need.