Southern Ag Today

Blog

  • Christmas Trees: A Festive Specialty Crop in the Southeast

    Christmas Trees: A Festive Specialty Crop in the Southeast

    Commercial Christmas tree production is often associated with colder climates and northern regions. Yet, Christmas trees are grown in all 50 states – including the South – with North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas among the leading producers, based on 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture data (Figure 1 and Table 1). Based on 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture data, the value of sales from cultivated trees in the South exceeded $160 million. 

    Table 1. Christmas Tree Production by Southeastern State, Ranked

    StateNumber of Trees Cut 
    North Carolina3,208,419
    Virginia578,777
    Georgia63,915
    Texas43,668
    Alabama24,586
    South Carolina23,317
    Oklahoma21,352
    Tennessee12,129
    Mississippi11,175
    Louisiana10,825
    Arkansas8,410
    Florida8,353
    Kentucky4,748
    Note: Data collected from the USDA Census of Agriculture, 2022.

    Virginia Pine, Afghan Pine, Leyland Cypress, Eastern Red Cedar, Fraser Fir, and Carolina Sapphire are some of the tree varieties you will find growing in the South. Families relate buying a real Christmas tree to making memories or to family traditions. For some, it is the scent of the tree, the process of picking a tree, and bringing it home. For others, it is an environmentally conscious choice as these trees, when sustainably produced and managed, can have beneficial impacts on soil and wildlife. 

    Christmas trees are primarily sold in local retail stores and on Christmas tree farms, boosting local economies. Prices vary by height, variety, and whether you buy at a local nursery, a retailer, or at a Christmas farm. Expect prices to be close to $80 as the starting price for a 5-6 ft tree, up to $400 for a 12-13 ft tree at a farm. You can also buy wreaths, garlands, and participate in festive activities at the venues throughout November and December. Yet, the industry is challenged with the American Christmas Tree Association (ACTA) reporting that U.S. households prefer an artificial tree; 83% of households surveyed in the period Oct. 3-5, 2025, representing 1,033 adults of 18 years of age or older in the US. Prices for artificial trees range from $50 for a 6ft tree all the way up to $2,500 for a 12ft high-end variety.

    However, there is something ‘special’ about picking out a tree, like you carry back home a piece of community. So, if you want to find where to pick your next tree, organize a family trip, or simply learn more about tree production, visit a Christmas Tree farm near you—some are counting down the days to open to the public. More information can be found at your state’s Christmas Tree Association, providing you with a list of member farms, e.g., the Texas Christmas Tree Growers’ Association, the Virginia Christmas Tree Growers’ Association, and the North Carolina Christmas Tree Association. Other sources are the Southern Christmas Trees Association and the National Christmas Tree Association. And once the season is over, you can always check if there is a Christmas tree recycling program in your area. The National Christmas Tree Association offers a recycling guide.

    Links:

    ACTA: Survey Finds Artificial Christmas Trees Continue to Dominate U.S. Holiday Décor — The American Christmas Tree Association

    Bampasidou, Maria. “Christmas Trees: A Festive Specialty Crop in the Southeast.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.5). November 14, 2025. Permalink

  • Grain Sorghum Exports to China at Their Lowest in Over a Decade

    Grain Sorghum Exports to China at Their Lowest in Over a Decade

    In 2025, grain sorghum production for the United States totaled 10.2 million metric tons (MMT). This was led by Kansas, totaling 5.8 MMT, and Texas, 2.64 MMT. Colorado (497 thousand metric tons), Nebraska (494 TMT), and Oklahoma (479 TMT). Aside from a poor production year in 2022, the United States has averaged 9.35 MMT annually.

    The U.S. is by far the largest sorghum exporter, followed by Australia and Argentina. In 2024, the United States exported 5.24 MMT of sorghum worth $1.38 billion, with China being the leading importer. From 2020-2024, China imported more than 83 percent of U.S. exported sorghum with an FOB value ranging from $1.32-2.14 billion each year. In 2024, sorghum exports to China from the United States totaled 4.63 MMT and $1.23 billion. Annually since 2020, less than 16.4 percent of U.S. sorghum exports have gone to the rest of the world. In recent years, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and Djibouti follow China in terms of volume imported, but none have imported more than 20 TMT since 2020.

    The ongoing tariff war has caused a decrease in Chinese imports of many U.S. products, including sorghum. In the partial year through July, only 82 TMT of sorghum have been exported; in the same time period in 2024, more than 3.24 MMT of sorghum were exported. As of July 2025, exports were down 80% when compared to the previous year, with sales to China down 97%. Some of these imports are primarily being substituted by Australia and Argentina. Similarly, in 2018 and 2019, sorghum trade between China and the United States fell but rebounded with the U.S.-China “Phase One” Deal that occurred in 2020. The recent agreement between the U.S. and China could reopen the Chinese market for U.S. sorghum.

    World Sorghum Exports, 2013-2024

    World Sorghum Imports, 2013-2024

    U.S. Sorghum Exports, 2016- July 2025

    Sources

    Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS). Online database. Online public database accessed November 2025.

    Nguema, Abigail. “Grain and Feed Update.” Foreign Agricultural Services. September 30, 2025.

    United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Comtrade. Online public database accessed November 2025.

    USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Production, Supply and Distribution Online (PS&DView). Online public database accessed November 2025.

  • What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around

    What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around

    When there isn’t a government shutdown that limits reporting activities, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a once-a-month shock that does more than nudge the average price. On release days, the intraday volatility pattern—its level across the session, its midday spike, and how quickly that spike fades—differs from ordinary days in ways that traders, merchandisers, and risk managers can plan around. A recent research article evaluated the impact of the WASDE report on commodity futures markets’ volatility (Lee and Park, 2024). Here we translate this research into practical guidance for traders when a WASDE report is released. 

    Most trading plans benchmark a point estimate—an expected move or a single daily volatility number. But markets trade through time. On WASDE days, volatility is comparatively calm into late morning, jumps right after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time (CT) release, and then eases within about an hour. Treating the day like any other misses the timing and the intraday pattern that drives fills, slippage, and margin exposure.

    We study corn and soybean futures from January 2013 through April 2023, focusing on regular trading hours (8:30 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. CT) and explicitly comparing three kinds of sessions: the release day itself, the day before, and the day after. Instead of averaging volatility across the whole day, we recover the intraday volatility curve—how volatility evolves minute by minute. We then ask two questions. First, what does volatility look like on WASDE days relative to other days? Second, is volatility the same across the before/after/release-day split? 

    On release days, volatility is subdued at the open, eases into mid-morning, and then spikes right after 11:00 a.m. CT (see Figure 1 and 2). Figure 1 shows the day before and the day after with a simple fade from the open without the midday surge seen on WASDE release days. The spike is visible in both corn and soybeans and typically fades within about an hour, as shown on Figure 2. Formally, release-day intraday volatility differs from the adjacent days, while the before and after pair are statistically indistinguishable. Another practical detail emerges at the open: on release days, when the market’s early-session volatility often starts lower than on non-release days, consistent with traders holding back risk until the report is released. The result is a day that is quieter than usual in the morning, busier than usual just after 11:00 a.m. CT, and fairly normal again by early afternoon.

    There are a few key takeaways from this research. One could use smaller orders just before the 11:00 a.m. CT release, then wait 5–15 minutes afterward to see where prices settle before adjusting. If buying, selling, or hedging, skip those first few minutes after 11:00—quotes and spreads are still resetting, and a short wait often saves money. For risk planning, don’t treat the whole day as high-volatility; expect a short, sharp bump around 11:00 that usually fades within about an hour.

    While these patterns describe typical release days across a long sample, individual months will differ with the surprise content of the report and with concurrent macro news. The point is not that every WASDE day looks the same, but that the intraday volatility pattern on those days is predictably different enough to plan around. Remember that all trading comes with risks and the guidance in this article is for educational purposes only and is not a guarantee of outcomes.

    Figure 1. Intraday volatility up to 11:00 a.m. (Central Time) WASDE release 

    Figure 2. Intraday volatility on WASDE release days (corn and soybeans)

    Minute-by-minute volatility with a 95% confidence band (gray). The vertical dashed line marks the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release. Both markets are relatively quiet into late morning, show a sharp 5–15-minute spike right after 11:00, and then settle toward baseline within about an hour; the exact height of the spike varies by month.

    References

    • Andersen, T. G., Su, T., Todorov, V., and Zhang, Z. (2024). Intraday periodic volatility curves. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119(546):1181–1191.
    • Lee, K. and Park, E. (2024). Exploring calendar effects: the impact of WASDE releases on grain futures market volatility. Applied Economics Letters, 1–6.

    Park, Eunchun. “What WASDE Days Do to Grain Futures: Intraday Volatility Patterns You Can Plan Around.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.3). November 12, 2025. Permalink

  • Some Special Prices for Turkey Day

    Some Special Prices for Turkey Day

    It’s turkey time, and a good opportunity to look at turkey prices and supplies as we head towards the big day.  Much higher wholesale prices have been in the news, so it’s also a good chance to examine wholesale versus retail prices and grocery store sales strategies.  

    Wholesale, national average, 8-16 pound turkey prices are up a whopping 82 percent compared to last year in early November!  The heavier Tom turkeys weighing 16-24 pounds are up even more, 88 percent, compared to last year.  It’s important to recognize that these are spot market, wholesale prices, and that most people are interested in the retail prices they are going to have to pay this year.    

    USDA publishes a weekly turkey retail feature report.  This report, using data from over 24,000 retail outlets across the country, indicates special and feature prices for turkey.  Whole, frozen turkeys weighing less than 16 pounds and those weighing more than 16 pounds averaged $0.93 and $0.92 per pound, respectively, this week.  Turkeys of those weights were $1.19 and $1.15 per pound last year.  Grocery store featured frozen turkey prices appear to be lower than last year.  Good news for consumers!  If you like a fresh turkey instead of frozen, those retail prices are running higher than last year.

    To understand how the wholesale and retail prices can move in different directions it’s worth remembering that most outlets contract their estimated turkey needs early in the year.  Those contracted prices are likely much lower than the current wholesale market.  Actual retail turkey prices that consumers pay often reflect special prices and features.  As a grocery store meat buyer told me a long time ago, “The quickest way to get fired is to run out of turkeys at Thanksgiving!”  The wholesale price reflects buyers spur of the moment additional needs and the available supplies to fill those orders.  

    For the year to date, total turkey production is about 3 percent less than last year.  But, since mid-year, production is about 2 percent higher than last year.  Total production has caught up after shortfalls early in 2025.  Overall, fewer turkeys have been produced this year, and fewer birds are in cold storage awaiting Thanksgiving.  HPAI is again impacting the spot market for turkeys.  Outbreaks on turkey farms have ramped up in the last 6 weeks in both Canada and northern states like Michigan, hitting those producers especially hard prior to the holiday driven demands. 

    It looks like wholesale prices are much higher than last year, and retail pricing specials appear to be in full swing heading towards Thanksgiving.  Consumers may find a deal.  While we always talk about turkey price movements this time of the year, it always strikes me that the whole bird provides a lot of value for the dollar.  Most people get several meals from the bird.  If you’re blessed to have Thanksgiving dinner with family and friends, you’ll get a lot more value than can be reflected in money.

    Anderson, David. “Some Special Prices for Turkey Day.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.2). November 11, 2025. Permalink

  • Understanding Interval-Based Enrollment Risk in PRF: How Interval Selection Strategies Can Impact Protection Across the South

    Understanding Interval-Based Enrollment Risk in PRF: How Interval Selection Strategies Can Impact Protection Across the South

    Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance continues to be one of the most widely used federal crop insurance plans nationwide, with the most insured acres of any crop insurance plan in the US. While the program’s design has remained the same, the rainfall patterns that determine its performance have not (Davis et al. 2025). A new analysis comparing baseline loss ratios with recent changes in rainfall inconsistency highlights areas where producers may need to reconsider their insured intervals, and why those adjustments matter.

    Figure 1 presents the baseline loss ratios of PRF from 2017 to 2024 across the south, demonstrating how the program would perform without interval choice affecting outcomes. This eliminates the human enrollment bias that happens when producers repeatedly select intervals that paid better in the past, do not follow a consistent enrollment strategy, or do not enroll consistently in general (Davis et al. 2025). Results show a mean loss ratio of 0.79 and a standard deviation of 0.20, indicating that, after controlling for enrollment behavior, most grids in the South maintain a relatively stable loss ratio that is below the national standard of 1.  Figure 1 demonstrates that baseline performance and protection received by producers varies by location.

    Figure 1. Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Baseline Loss Ratio Map Across the Southern United States for Policy Years (2017-2024)

    Note: For these values, each of the 11 dual-month intervals held equal weight of the policy for each year (2017-2024) and was averaged at the grid level. 

    Davis et al. 2025 demonstrate that changes in the trend and variance of rainfall over time can be incorporated into an interval selection strategy. With PRF’s Rainfall Index being based on outcomes back to 1948, changes in more recent years in rainfall are less and less impactful on the index. So the strategy is to use the declining impact of each year’s rainfall to identify a gap between the assumed and actual risks, as our research showed. Figure 2 shows the results of such a strategy. The mean loss ratios of these grids increased to 0.83 under this strategy, with a standard deviation of 0.33. There is an increase in the average loss ratio, though not massive, and, more interestingly, a big jump in the standard deviation. This tells us that in certain areas, such as grids where rainfall has been especially uncertain, looking at past Rainfall Index values can help you choose a policy aligned with the intervals that provide the most safety net protection for your situation. 

    Regions with loss ratios of 1+ are presented as either white or red grid cells. Compared with Figure 1, there are significant visual changes. Except for Kentucky and Tennessee, most southern states show more grids performing at or above the standard loss ratio of 1, suggesting improved outcomes for producers when using this interval selection strategy. Grids that were performing well across all intervals (Figure 1) also seem to perform even better under this strategy.

    Figure 2. Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Loss Ratio Map with Enrollment Selected by Increasing Rainfall Uncertainty Across the Southern United States Averages for Each Policy Year (2017-2024)

    Together, these two maps highlight how PRF interval selection is critically important to the insurance outcome and the protection provided to the producer. For producers, the baseline loss ratio map can act as a reference for the expected PRF performance in their grid. However, it is important to investigate the performance of select 2-month intervals and take a more strategic approach, like the example above, to improve the chances of getting dependable coverage. A great place to start is by looking at the PRF Rainfall Index values for your area. Watch for downward trends or times when the index has been more variable.  Of course, it is also important to consider interval selection based on the seasons when rainfall is most critical to your forage production cycle.  Together, take advantage of all the information available to choose the interval combinations that best add to your farm’s safety net.

    References:

    Davis, Walker, Lawson Connor, Hunter Biram, and Michael Popp. 2025. “Performance and Feasibility of Pasture Rangeland and Forage Insurance in the Delta Region.” M.S., University of Arkansas. https://www.proquest.com/docview/3255211943/abstract/752CC539274B4F6FPQ/1.

    Davis, Walker, Lawson Connor, Michael Popp, and Shelby Ryder. 2025. “Is PRF Profitable in a Wetter State?” Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, 132–46.

    Davis, Walker. Understanding Interval-Based Enrollment Risk in PRF: How Interval Selection Strategies Can Impact Protection Across the South. Southern Ag Today 5(46.1). November 10, 2025. Permalink