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Hemp Review and Outlook

2021

The hemp industry continues to struggle to find its balance in the agricultural economy. As the industry continues to work through hemp inventories produced in 2019, 2020, and 2021, which have continued to suppress farm gate prices, retail pricing remains sticky. For example, in Kentucky, 1,675 acres of hemp were harvested in 2021 representing a 63% decrease over 2020. Multiple states around the country are experiencing these types of declines. Hemp production destined for extraction continues to dominate the national market. Consumers of hemp products are loyal and purchase mostly online. However, there is market confusion within the industry as consumers need additional education on the differences between hemp and marijuana, according to our research.

2022

For the market to move forward in 2022 the industry needs to educate consumers on the differences between hemp and marijuana. Furthermore, uncertainties around regulations, THC content, pet and livestock feed approval, inconsistent smokable laws between states, and FDA approval continue to hinder growth in the hemp sector. Some processors continue to explore new marketing channels by focusing on cannabinoids other than CBD (i.e. CBG, CBN, etc.) or other THC attributes (i.e. delta 8,10). However, significant increases in floral hemp production are not expected until current stocks are processed (or destroyed because of storage issues) or demand shifts. Conversely, the grain and fiber industries are starting to see an increase in demand as investment in these sectors continue to increase. Hemp continues to be a small sector of agriculture that needs stability before significant increases in acreages are realized.

Figure 1: State and Region Hemp Biomass Price

Source: PanXchange (https://panxchange.com/)

Recommended citation format: Mark, Tyler. “Hemp Review and Outlook“. Southern Ag Today 2(4.3). January 19, 2022. Permalink

January 19, 2022
Poultry’s Perfect Storm in 2021-22

While poultry remains the least expensive animal protein, prices are at a sustained multi-year high. Prices normally fluctuate in somewhat of a seasonal fashion, as seen in the 3-year average line above. COVID caused an extreme disruption to the downward side in Q2 2020. Then 2021 changed everything again. Early spring brought the market back to somewhat normalcy as dining away from home regained popularity. Then the highly touted “chicken sandwich wars” heated up as restaurant chains pushed for ways to get customers back through the doors. These and other improving market conditions began to drive prices up in early Q2 ‘21. At the same time, company processing plants struggled with employee absenteeism. Combined with sustained transportation issues and other supply chain weaknesses from the last year, the supply of chicken was unable to keep up with the new soaring demand. The result is sustained high and rising 2021 prices (brown line in chart).

Monthly Composite Broiler Price, Weighted Average $/cwt

Chart Source: USDA-ERS National Broiler Market-at-a-Glance, 12/30/21 Vol. 68 No. 52

What will 2022 bring? As poultry companies try to expand live operations to meet demand and keep plants operating at full capacity, they are meeting difficulties on both fronts. Despite increasing plant wages, many are still reporting sustained 20%+ absentee rates for many shifts. Then along came increasing prices for building materials and labor. Contract growers who raise the chickens are finding it almost impossible to afford to build the new housing integrators need to supply more birds to the market. To secure new housing, integrators are having to invest more into the farms, increasing live production costs. It is suspected that these factors along with continued supply chain struggles will ultimately influence prices to stay high in 2022, and possibly beyond.

Recommended citation format: Brothers, Dennis. “Poultry’s Perfect Storm in 2021-22“. Southern Ag Today 2(4.2). January 18, 2022. Permalink

January 18, 2022
The U.S. Dollar’s Influence on ICE Cotton Futures

It is commonly assumed that a stronger U.S. dollar is a bearish influence on export commodities like cotton. While that is often true, it is not quite that simple. Figure 1 compares the inverse pattern of “nearby” (i.e., soonest to expire) ICE cotton futures prices (in red) and an index (in blue) of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six currencies: the Euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and the Swedish krona. Those six countries and their currencies have little to do with international cotton exports or imports. However, to the extent that U.S. dollar strength (for whatever reason) against these currencies coincides with U.S. dollar strength versus cotton exporting countries (e.g., Brazil, Australia, Central Asia, and sometimes India), then this chart may reflect situations where a strengthening dollar is directly associated with lower U.S. export competitiveness. The lower U.S. export competitiveness could transform into lower U.S. domestic cotton prices. As a result, we see an inverse pattern in Figure 1. However, there are periods of time reflected in Figure 1 where the inverse relationship breaks down, e.g., in the center of Figure 1 during 2013. That period coincided with a time when European sovereign debt was weakening the euro relative to the dollar, which represents a distortion to what this chart is trying to explain.

Figure1. U.S. Dollar Index versus Nearby ICE Cotton Futures Settlement Price

A potentially cleaner comparison would be of the U.S. dollar versus the Brazilian real or the Australian dollar. The more cotton-specific impact of the U.S. dollar value on U.S. exports can be inferred from USDA trade-weighted exchange rate indices. Looking back at these kinds of indices will show time periods like, for example, in 2015 when the U.S. dollar got 6.4% stronger (year-over-year) compared to the currencies of the specific countries that we trade cotton with. This means that U.S. cotton was roughly that much more expensive to foreign buyers compared to other cotton exporting countries.

Lastly, to the extent that large financial institutions (investment banks, hedge funds) are moving money across asset classes, a rise in the dollar could reflect a risk off shift of investment out of stocks and commodities (driving down cotton futures, all other things being equal) and into U.S. treasuries. This would presumably be reflected in a rising U.S. dollar. Parts of Figure 1 may be explained by such movements, and they have little to do with cotton economics or export competitiveness.

Recommended citation format: Robinson, John. “The U.S. Dollar’s Influence on ICE Cotton Futures“. Southern Ag Today 2(4.1). January 17, 2022. Permalink

January 17, 2022
Revisit Your Estate Plan
As the New Year begins, tax documents are spread across kitchen tables, pulled from basement boxes, amassed in spreadsheets, and stuffed in mailboxes to CPAs across America. As the saying goes, there are two certainties in life: death and taxes. One is dreaded and the other is often neglected. As a global pandemic extends another season and reminders of our health and longevity flash across headlines, this is your friendly reminder that while you’re digging up those tax documents, revisit your estate plan. An uncomfortable truth is that if you neglect to do your estate planning, the state will do it for you. A comprehensive estate plan includes succession planning, a very different beast from estate planning. A succession plan sets forth how your enterprise (i.e. farm) will continue operating after you are no longer running the business. However, doing one without the other is like rowing a boat without an oar.

To get the most out of your estate planning effort, do these things every year:
1. Review your executor(s), beneficiaries, trustee(s), guardian(s), personal representative(s), and other appointed roles under your estate planning documents;
2. Review your assets, accounts, life insurance policies, and charitable giving wishes;
3. Discuss with your CPA the benefits and limitations on gifting assets during your lifetime;
4. Ensure that your estate plan and succession plan compliment, and do not conflict, with each other;
5. Ensure that your durable power of attorney and living will are consistent with your wishes.
Some of the most voluminous estate plans may fail to adequately provide for a testator’s desires if they aren’t routinely revisited and updated. Reconsider a plan that leaves your estate planning to others, such as your children or other heirs. Your assets are your responsibility. Leaving difficult decisions to your heirs can leave them vulnerable to discourse and overwhelmed, particularly when they are aggrieved. A relevant, thorough, and thoughtful estate plan may be the best gift you could ever leave behind.

Recommended citation format: Friedel, Jennifer. “Revisit Your Estate Plan“. Southern Ag Today 2(3.5). January 14, 2022. Permalink
January 14, 2022
China’s Purchase of U.S. Cotton Increased in 2020 and 2021

Tariffs, another form of taxes, are taxes or duties that a government charges on goods coming into or going out of their country. Import tariffs are taxes charged to imported products. On January 15, 2020, the U.S. and China signed the “Phase One” trade agreement, which eased two-year trade tensions between the two countries. In the Phase One trade agreement, China agreed to purchase no less than $12.5 billion U.S. agricultural products above the corresponding 2017 baseline amount in 2020, and no less than $19.5 billion above the 2017 baseline amount in 2021.

The cotton industry was caught in the middle of the trade war. Additional 25% Chinese import tariffs were implemented on U.S. raw cotton. After signing the Phase One trade agreement, China implemented a temporary lift of the retaliatory tariff for some U.S. products, including cotton (HS code 5201).

Since then, the purchase of U.S. cotton by China has increased. As shown in Figure 1, Chinese purchases of U.S. cotton in 2020 and 2021 exceeded the number of Chinese purchases for the five-year average between 2015 and 2019. Especially in 2020, the Chinese purchase of U.S. cotton supported cotton prices, and is one of the major reasons for cotton price recovery after the pandemic lockdown implemented in most Asian countries in the earlier months of 2020. The cotton purchases by China in 2021 from the U.S. were lower than what was in 2020, primarily due to the high cotton prices.

However, China’s purchase obligation of U.S. agricultural products under the Phase One Trade agreement only lasts until the end of 2021. The Phase One trade agreement stated that the trajectory of increases in U.S. agricultural goods purchased by China will continue in 2022 through 2025. However, producers need to be aware of the uncertainty of China’s future years’ cotton purchase and adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.

Figure 1. U.S. Cotton Export to China. Data includes cotton and cotton linters. Data Source: USDA FAS.

Recommended citation format: Liu, Yangxuan. “China’s Purchase of U.S. Cotton Increased in 2020 and 2021“. Southern Ag Today 2(3.4). January 13, 2022. Permalink

January 13, 2022